Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI

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000
FXHW60 PHFO 280554
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AS A WEAK FRONT APPROACHES
THE STATE THROUGH MID-WEEK. FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...THIS FRONT
WILL SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND WEAK NORTHWEST WINDS OVER THE ISLANDS.
LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RETURN...AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY...SLOWLY
OVER THE WEEKEND. A STRONGER FRONT MAY REACH THE STATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OBSERVATIONS AROUND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS REPORTED LIGHT TO
LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS BLOWING. ALOFT...BROAD BUT FLAT RIDGING
STILL PREVAILED OVER THE STATE...THOUGH A BROADER TROUGH SLOWLY
DENTED THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST. ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE WAS
PRESENT TO REINFORCE THE INVERSION AT SLIGHTLY BELOW ITS USUAL
HEIGHT. THE AIR MASS REMAINED RELATIVELY DRY...THOUGH SATELLITE
ESTIMATES SUGGESTED GRADUAL MOISTENING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
STABLE STRATOCUMULI PERSISTING UPWIND MOVED ASHORE LOCALLY ALONG
WINDWARD SLOPES. THESE LOW CLOUDS PRODUCED LITTLE RAIN...AND EVEN
THE DRIZZLE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS DIMINISHED ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES.

GUIDANCE PREDICTED WINDS TO EASE FURTHER...AND TURN SOUTHERLY AHEAD
OF A FEEBLE FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS FEATURE
SHOULD ADVANCE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
CONSENSUS PREDICTED LITTLE WATER VAPOR TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
ALTHOUGH RECENT RUNS DID BOOST THEIR PREDICTIONS FOR FRIDAY. ALSO...
THE BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXPANDING SOUTHEAST OVER THE ISLANDS AT
THE SAME TIME WILL PROVIDE MOST OF ITS SUPPORT FURTHER TO THE
NORTH...LIMITING ITS LOCAL INFLUENCE. THUS...RELATIVELY LITTLE RAIN
WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND IT SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIGHT AS WELL. LIGHT TRADE WINDS WILL RECOVER GRADUALLY OVER
THE WEEKEND. LINGERING MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
DISORGANIZED...POSSIBLY DIURNAL SHOWERS...LIKELY PRODUCING MORE
RAIN THAN THE FRONT ITSELF.

BY MONDAY...MOST SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A SECOND...STRONGER FRONT TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST...TURNING WINDS SOUTHERLY AGAIN AHEAD OF
IT. GUIDANCE CONTINUED TO DISAGREE WITH RESPECT TO THE MOTION OF
MID-LEVEL LOWS NORTH OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME. IF MOST TRACK
WELL NORTH...ONLY WEAK AND BAGGY TROUGHING MAY BE PRESENT NEARBY...
GREATLY LIMITING SUPPORT FOR THE FRONT AT THE SURFACE. ON THE OTHER
HAND...SOME SOLUTIONS PREDICTED A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE
LOWS...AND THUS MORE SIGNIFICANT SUPPORT. IN ANY CASE...CONSENSUS
PREDICTED MORE ABUNDANT WATER VAPOR ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONT THAN THE
FIRST ONE...SO AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE
PRESENT.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHWEST SWELL WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY...
AND THEN DIMINISH BY THURSDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WAS IN EFFECT
FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
COMBINED SEAS IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST THURSDAY FOR NIIHAU-KAUAI
WINDWARD-KAUAI LEEWARD-WAIANAE COAST-OAHU NORTH SHORE-OAHU
KOOLAU-MOLOKAI-MAUI WINDWARD WEST-MAUI CENTRAL VALLEY-WINDWARD
HALEAKALA.

&&

$$

RYSHKO




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