Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 242026
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
326 PM CDT Sat Sep 24 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and storms will continue to develop and move
northwest for the remainder of the afternoon. Will see coverage
decrease early this eve with the loss of heating. Numerous showers
and storms are likely to develop late tonight offshore and along
the coast. Therefore...have raised pops up to the likely category
on Sun morning across coastal areas. Greater than 2 inch
precipitable water values are expected to advect further inland
during the day on Sunday,located roughly along and to the sw of
I-45 tomorrow. On Monday, expect the best chc of rain to be across
sw areas, but scattered activity is expected areawide ahead of
the frontal boundary.

The GFS and ECMWF are in agreement that the cold front edges into
the nw portions of se TX Monday afternoon/evening. However, the
GFS is then faster to push the front to the coast by early Tuesday
morning. Believe that the front is likely to move slower through
SE Texas than the GFS is advertising, but might not be as slow to
the coast as the ECMWf is indicating. Expect rain chcs to end from
north to south on Tuesday afternoon and night as drier air advects
into into the region. Behind the front, Wed through Fri, we will
see considerably cooler min temps, especially northern areas, with
seasonal max temps in the 80s.

&&

.MARINE...
Look for increasing tstm coverage near/off the upper Tx coast after
midnight. Had some waterspouts today and similar environment will
be supportive of them again Sunday (even the non-convective variety).

Otherwise...southeast winds around 10-15 knots are expected to persist
through Sunday. Winds will gradually back to the east on Monday and
northeast on Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary sags into the region
coupled with troughiness situated off the lower Tx and Mexico coast.

Tide levels are currently running 1/2-1 foot above normal. Assuming
model guidance is correct in keeping winds/seas in manageable levels
for the next several days, highest observed tides will probably top
out around 3.0 ft MLLW which shouldn`t cause too many issues. Will
keep an eye on things though.  47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      75  89  73  83  66 /  20  70  60  60  40
Houston (IAH)              75  87  75  87  69 /  30  60  40  50  40
Galveston (GLS)            81  86  80  86  74 /  50  60  50  50  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

Discussion...33


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