Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 271900
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
200 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.AVIATION...
FCST REMAINS TRICKY AS MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN A LOT OF HELP OF LATE
(ESPECIALLY THE SHORT TERM ONES). THAT BEING SAID ECMWF/GFS CONT-
INUING TO HINT AT ANOTHER PATCH OF PCPN MOVING DOWN FROM THE N/NW
LATER TONIGHT. IN THE MEANTIME WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF VCTS THRU
THE REST OF THIS AFTN/EVE FOR ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. MVFR CIGS A
GOOD BET OVERNIGHT. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015/

MORNING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS COME TO AN END WITH STRONG COLD
POOL AIRMASS OVER THE AREA. TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 60S IN THE
COOLER AIR AND WITH CLOUD COVER DECREASING TEMPS HAVE RECOVERED
BACK INTO THE 70S. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 80S LOOK ON TRACK FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. OUT FLOW BOUNDARY HAS PUSH INTO THE GULF AND THEN
BACK TO THE SW FROM MATAGORDA BAY TO AUSTIN WHERE SEVERE WARNED
STORM HAS DEVELOPED. DECIDED TO END THE FF WATCH FOR TODAY AS
OVERALL THINK BOUNDARY LAYER HAS STABILIZED BUT STILL PLENTY OF
TIME FOR RECOVERY. DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 70S AND WITH DAY
TIME HEATING COULD SEE SOME ISO ACTIVITY. FORECAST WILL KEEP SOME
30-40 PERCENT CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
ACTIVITY.

FORECAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IS STILL CHALLENGING BUT THINK
FRI/SAT COULD BE ANOTHER TIME FRAME FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO TX. WILL LOOK AT HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT FOR
THE AFTERNOON FORECAST UPDATE.

39

CLIMATE...

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN HAVE PLAGUED SE TX SINCE APRIL.
THE RAIN AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS/WET GROUND HAS LIMITED HEATING.
NONE OF THE FIRST ORDER CLIMATE SITES HAVE RECORDED A 90 DEGREE
DAY SO FAR THIS YEAR. THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE FOR THE TEMPERATURE
TO REACH 90 DEGREES IS ON MAY 7TH IN HOUSTON AND MAY 5TH IN
COLLEGE STATION. THE LATEST TIME IN THE YEAR TO REACH 90 DEGREES
WAS JUNE 15TH 1897 FOR HOUSTON AND JUNE 12TH 1976 FOR COLLEGE
STATION. RAINFALL IN HOUSTON FOR MAY HAS TALLIED 12.18 INCHES
WHICH IS THE 7TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD. SUGAR LAND ASOS (KSGR) HAS
MEASURED 17.79 INCHES OF RAIN DURING MAY AND THIS IS THE WETTEST
MAY ON RECORD. THE SUGAR LAND CO-OP SITE HAS MEASURED 15.66 INCHES
OF RAIN AND THIS IS ALSO THE WETTEST MAY ON RECORD.
LASTLY...HUNTSVILLE CO-OP HAS MEASURED 12.99 INCHES OF RAIN IN MAY
WHICH IS THE 4TH WETTEST MAY ON RECORD WHILE THE HUNTSVILLE ASOS
(KUTS) HAS MEASURED 13.77 INCHES WHICH IS THE WETTEST MAY ON
RECORD.

IT IS THE WETTEST MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 26TH IN CITY OF HOUSTON
HISTORY WITH 24.62 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE LAST 86 DAYS. FWIW...THE
CITY OF HOUSTON HAS MEASURED 28.45 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE JAN 1ST AND
THIS IS THE 5TH WETTEST START TO A YEAR IN RECORDED HISTORY. THE
WETTEST YEAR WAS 30.18 INCHES IN 1922. 43

MAR 1 - MAY 26

24.62 - 2015
23.85 - 1922
21.39 - 1993
21.08 - 1997
19.11 - 1970

JAN 1 - MAY 26

1922  30.18
1993  29.85
1997  29.69
1991  29.06
2015 28.45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      86  72  86  73  85 /  40  30  40  30  40
HOUSTON (IAH)              85  73  85  74  85 /  30  20  40  20  40
GALVESTON (GLS)            82  77  84  78  84 /  30  10  30  20  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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