Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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000
FXUS64 KHGX 042002
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
302 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL WANE QUICKLY AFTER DARK THIS
EVENING AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH AND AWAY
FROM THE AREA. IN ITS WAKE...RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED WHICH WILL BUILD THROUGH NEXT WEEK. DESPITE LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENCE BECOMING ESTABLISHED...THE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN
QUITE MOIST ON SUNDAY AND WILL MAINTAIN SLGT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/TSTMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST WILL MIRROR CLIMATOLOGY WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER 90S EACH AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN
QUITE LOW. COULD NOSE INTO THE MID 90S FOR INLAND AREAS BY THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

GFS AND ECMWF HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH RAIN CHANCES LATE IN
THE WEEK AS GFS BRINGS HIGHER POPS/INCREASING MOISTURE THU INTO
FRI ASSOCIATED WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S.  EURO MAINTAINS THE DRIER PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEK. WILL STAY WITH PERSISTENCE FOR THIS FORECAST...BUT WILL
KEEP MENTION OF SLGT CHANCE TSTMS THU/FRI AFTERNOONS.

48

.MARINE...
MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND LOW
PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. EXPECT ISOLATED SHWRS/TSTMS
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN. LOW RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MID- WEEK OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1243 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

DISCUSSION...

18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...SEEING SCT SHRA AND ISO TSRA EARLY THIS
AFT. EXPECT COVERAGE TO GRADUALLY INCREASE THE AFT AND ALSO GRADUALLY
SHIFT NORTH/FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SE TX IN THE 20-23Z TIME FRAME.
HAVE A TEMPO FOR TSRA AT IAH AND NORTHWARD WHERE THE BEST AFT COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACTIVITY PAST 00Z. EXPECT ISOLATED
SHRA/TSTMS TOMORROW...BUT WITH MINIMAL COVERAGE. COULD SEE BRIEF
MVFR CEILINGS 10Z-15Z SUN. 33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  94  77  94  76 /  10  20  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  94  78  94  78 /  10  20  10  10   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            80  89  78  90  79 /  10  20  10  10  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$



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