Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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000
FXUS66 KHNX 120955
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
255 AM PDT SAT JUL 12 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WILL BRING A WARMING AND DRYING TREND TO CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA THROUGH SUNDAY. TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL THEN PUSH INTO
THE AREA NEXT WEEK BRINGING INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...GOES HIGH DENSITY WINDS AND WV IMAGERY ARE
INDICATING AN ELONGATED UPPER LOW PRESSURE CENTER OFF THE NORCAL
COAST BETWEEN 130W AND 135W. THIS FEATURE IS INTERACTING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE WHICH IS IN THE PROCESS OF BECOMING RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO PRODUCE A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER CENTRAL
CA THIS MORNING. AS THE HIGH REBUILDS WESTWARD TODAY...HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES WILL REBOUND AND AS A RESULT TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS TODAY. SUCCESSIVE WRF RUNS ARE INDICATING
THAT THE HIGH WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON
SUNDAY...BRINGING CONTINUED WARMING TO OUR AREA AS HEIGHTS AND
THICKNESSES RISE FURTHER. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
READINGS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS AS WELL AS ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. RH PROGS ARE INDICATING THE RETURN OF MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ON MONDAY AS A MOIST
SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ESTABLISHED. AS A RESULT...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
KERN COUNTY DESERTS ON MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND THEIR ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARE GENERALLY
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW PATTERN OVER OUR
AREA FOR THE MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NV. THIS WILL PROVIDE OUR AREA WITH SOME
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY AND CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AND THE KERN COUNTY
DESERTS...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
PROJECTED HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES INDICATE THAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS OUR AREA ALTHOUGH INCREASED
DAYTIME CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM REACHING
PROJECTED HIGHS IN SOME LOCATIONS NEXT WEEK.

THE HIGH IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN BY LATE NEXT WEEK WITH THE UPPER
FLOW TURNING MORE TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST...THIS WILL REDUCE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND BRING
SLIGHTLY LOWER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BY FRIDAY AS ONSHORE SURFACE
GRADIENTS INCREASE AND HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES LOWER A BIT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 07-12      109:2012     82:1995     81:1999     54:1965
KFAT 07-13      110:1983     84:1932     83:1999     55:1903
KFAT 07-14      110:1972     85:2011     81:1935     55:1920

KBFL 07-12      113:1913     81:1995     80:1999     48:1914
KBFL 07-13      111:1908     87:1995     85:1999     46:1914
KBFL 07-14      112:1908     88:2011     81:1972     50:1914
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...JDB
SYNOPSIS...JDB

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD



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