Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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419
FXUS66 KHNX 282252
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Joaquin Valley - Hanford CA
352 PM PDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mountain showers and thunderstorms today and Sunday as a weak upper
level low moves south along the coastline. High pressure will move
in beginning Memorial Day bringing a return to drier and much warmer
conditions through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A warming trend continues across interior central California
today, with 24 hr temperature trends currently running up around
2-4 degrees. Highs are on track to top out a few degrees above
climo this afternoon. A weak upper level disturbance moving into
the central coast is helping to generate some convection over the
higher elevations. Radar loops indicate scattered showers and a
few thunderstorms developing over the Sierra zones and a few cells
popping over the mountains of Kern County.

This weak low is progged to drop south along the California coast
through tonight and swing inland over southern California Sunday.
Convection will continue over the mountains through the evening,
with a few remnants possibly straying into the foothills in the
southerly steering flow. Expect similar convective conditions
Sunday as the disturbance swings inland, while the general warmup
continues across the area.

An upper level ridge will begin to build in behind the exiting
shortwave trough and Memorial Day will see a bit more warming,
with convection limited to a few cells near the Sierra crest.
The ridge will continue to build overhead through the middle of
next week and temperatures will hit triple digits at most Valley
locations by Tuesday, even warmer by a degree or so Wednesday.

Models begin to slightly weaken and displace the ridge by
Thursday as another pacific upper trough develops. There is not
much model consistency with the evolution of this feature. Current
indications suggest there will be little relief from our heat for
the latter part of next week and the forecast keeps temperatures
well above normal during the period, with no precipitation expected.

&&

.AVIATION...
Areas of MVFR and local IFR in showers and isolated thunderstorms
can be expected over the mountains through 04z Sunday and again
after 18z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail over the
central California interior during the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON SUNDAY MAY 29 2016... Unhealthy for sensitive groups in Kern
and Tulare Counties.
Further information is available at Valleyair.org

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.php for additional information
an/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

public...JEB
avn/fw...Bean
synopsis...WP

weather.gov/hanford



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