Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA

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FXUS66 KHNX 271038
AFDHNX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
338 AM PDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES BECOMING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. OTHERWISE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY...EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA WHERE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
THE PACNW AND ANOTHER WEAK LOW OFF THE NORTHERN BAJA CA COAST.
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE PASSING OVER KERN COUNTY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW TO THE SOUTH. THESE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
THE EARLY MORNING LEAVING ABUNDANT SUNSHINE IN STORE FOR TODAY.
A MODERATE ONSHORE SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES...WHICH BROUGHT IN SOME
COOLER MARINE AIR TO THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY LAST NIGHT RESULTING
IN SLIGHTLY LOWER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY THAN MONDAY. UPPER RIDGING
REMAINS OFFSHORE BUT IS POISED TO TRANSITION INLAND THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

MINIMAL TSTORM ACTIVITY WAS OBSERVED TODAY...WITH JUST AN ISOLATED
CELL AROUND MT WHITNEY. THE HIGH RES MODELS SHOW INSTABILITY WILL
BE SUFFICIENT TO CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CREST OF
THE SIERRA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.

ENSEMBLES REMAIN CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE LOWS EASTWARD TODAY
ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE WEST COAST IN THEIR
WAKE. THE WARMING TREND RESUMES TODAY WITH THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S...A LITTLE ABOVE
CLIMO. THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE PATTERN WITH THE
AXIS SHIFTING OVER CALIFORNIA FRI-SAT. FURTHER SYNOPTIC WARMING
WILL BRING ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREE RISE IN TEMPS EACH DAY THROUGH SAT.
HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 9-12 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMO SATURDAY
WITH SOME PARTS OF THE SJV AND DESERT FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND
THE CENTURY MARK.

HIGH CONFIDENCE CONTINUES IN THE RIDGE SHIFTING OVER THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE EPAC. A FEW DEGREES
COOLING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING MONDAY
AS THE TROUGH SWINGS INLAND. SO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE SHORT LIVED AS TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP BACK TO AROUND
SEASONAL LEVELS EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL
RAMP UP AGAIN SUNDAY PRODUCING BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY
THROUGH AND BELOW MOUNTAIN PASSES. THESE WINDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY ROUNDS THE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...
LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SIERRA NEVADA BETWEEN 19Z THU AND
03Z THU. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS HIGH.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS HIGH.

THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS PART OF A TRIAL PROJECT CONDUCTED
BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD.
CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 05-27      104:1974     55:1971     69:1896     46:1998
KFAT 05-28      107:1984     58:1953     69:2009     45:1927
KFAT 05-29      107:1984     61:1996     72:1939     45:1906

KBFL 05-27      106:1974     66:1971     75:1974     42:1917
KBFL 05-28      107:1973     67:1953     72:2009     43:1906
KBFL 05-29      106:1973     70:2011     75:1973     45:1927
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...DCH
AVN/FW...DS
SYNOPSIS...DCH

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD


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