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000
FXUS63 KICT 270539
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1139 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

IT IS A COLD BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE PLAINS WITH ABUNDANT SUN...BUT
ALSO ABUNDANT COLD AIR ADVECTION. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO GET
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS KANSAS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH IS TILTED ACROSS THE COUNTRY. A
DISTURBANCE THAT IS OFF OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD TO
BECOME A TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND BE OUR WEATHER MAKER FOR
THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE DOMINANT WEATHER CONCERN IS THE WINTER STORM COMING FOR THE
WEEKEND. FIRST OFF HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY WINTER HEADLINES FOR
NOW...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH FOR MODERATE SNOW AMOUNTS THAT WOULD
CAUSE AN ADVISORY...BUT LOWER FOR WARNING AMOUNT SNOWFALL TOTALS.
FEEL THAT AN ADVISORY IS BEST ISSUED CLOSER TOWARD THE EVENT...AND
HELD OFF AT THIS JUNCTURE.

FRIDAY: PRE-WINTER STORM. A WAVE MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
PLAINS WILL KICK OFF SNOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS WAVE HAS CHANGED SOME. THE NAM/EC HAVE HINTED AT THE
WAVE/LIFT MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA/SOUTHERN KANSAS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS HAVE INCLUDED SMALL POPS FOR LIGHT
SNOW. CONFIDENCE ON THIS FEATURE IS LOW...LOW LEVELS ARE DRY AND
THE MOISTURE WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME THAT. EXPECT IF IT OCCURS IT
WILL ONLY IMPACT THE SOUTHERN RUNG OF COUNTIES DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. BEYOND THAT...FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY.

WINTER STORM SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY:
WATCHING GUIDANCE TODAY...FEEL THE NAM/EC/SREF HAVE BETTER HANDLE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM...AND HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST
TOWARDS THOSE SOLUTIONS AND AWAY FROM THE GFS SOLUTION. FEEL THE
FORECAST WILL REMAIN DRY UNTIL VERY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SNOW
ENTERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THE PRECIPITATION
TYPE ON SATURDAY WILL BE ALL SNOW. AMOUNTS OF SNOW ON SATURDAY
WILL BE AROUND 2 TO 4 INCHES AVERAGING AROUND 3 INCHES.

THE NAM/EC/SREF KEEP THE NOSE OF WARM AIR FURTHER SOUTH IN
KANSAS VS. THE GFS...ANOTHER REASON FOR THE TREND AWAY FROM THE
GFS SOLUTION. FELT THE WARM NOSE WAS TOO WARM TOO FAR
NORTH...FELT A MORE PESSIMISTIC LOOK AT THE TEMPS WITH THE COLD
AIR IN PLACE WAS BEST FOR NOW. KEPT THE 0 C LINE NEAR THE HIGHWAY
400 OR THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON WHERE THE
FREEZING LINE WILL END UP AND HOW THE SECOND HALF...SUNDAY PORTION
OF THE FORECAST WILL EVOLVE. GIVEN THAT...THIS IS THE BEST
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT SATURDAY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH THE LOSS OF CLOUD ICE...BUT IT RETURNS SUNDAY MORNING.
FOR SUNDAY SNOW SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE TURNPIKE CORRIDOR WITH A
WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET POSSIBLE SOUTH. ANOTHER INCH
OR TWO OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS WITH A
COUPLE OF INCHES POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. WITH THE NAM/EC
SOLUTIONS EXPECT PRECIP TO TREND DOWNWARD AND EXIT THE AREA BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE GFS HAS KEPT A MORE BULLISH
FRONTOGENESIS AREA ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WHICH COULD KEEP PRECIP
AROUND LONGER INTO THE EVENING. THIS WOULD ACCOUNT FOR THE HIGHER
END SNOWFALL TOTALS IN CENTRAL KANSAS. DID TREND DOWN AND REMOVE
POPS OVERNIGHT.

STORM TOTAL SNOWS AT THIS TIME LOOK TO BE AROUND 4 AND 6 INCHES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH 2 TO 4 ALONG THE KANSAS/OKLAHOMA
BORDER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

LOW TO MODEST CONFIDENCE IN THE EARLY WEEK FORECAST...ESPECIALLY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE DEEPER/FURTHER WEST
WITH THE MEAN LONGWAVE...AS IT PHASES WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM AND
SLIDES EAST INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE MAIN SENSIBLE WEATHER
DIFFERENCE WILL BE TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL IMPACT PRECIP TYPE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED A BIT WARMER ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WHICH WOULD SUPPORT MAINLY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN
KANSAS WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THERE IS GENERAL
SUPPORT FOR COLDER WITH CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY
WITH DRY WEATHER BY THURSDAY BEHIND THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROF.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THIS TAF FORECAST WILL BE LOWERING
CEILINGS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
AT KHUT AND KICT. UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
EASTWARD AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GRADUAL
LIFT AND UPSLOPE WINDS WILL ALLOW CEILINGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER AND
MAY ALLOW LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS. MID LEVELS BEGIN TO SATURATE LATE FRIDAY
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...HOWEVER
CLOUD ICE THAT DOES DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO OVERCOME AMPLE AMOUNTS
OF DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS. WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OR NOT
ENOUGH LIFT WILL BE PRESENT TO SATURATE THE LOW LEVELS...HAVE
OPTED TO LEAVE MENTIONS OF SNOW OUT OF KICT AND KHUT TAFS AT THIS
TIME AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH. CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION
FROM VFR TO MVFR CEILINGS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AT MOST
TERMINALS.

RITZMAN

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CST THU FEB 26 2015

GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WINTER
STORM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. SNOW AND A WINTRY MIX WILL MOVE
THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    10  22  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
HUTCHINSON       8  23  14  28 /   0  10  20  90
NEWTON           7  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
ELDORADO         9  23  15  27 /   0  10  10  90
WINFIELD-KWLD   10  23  16  29 /   0  20  10  80
RUSSELL          5  22  13  28 /   0  10  30  70
GREAT BEND       8  22  13  27 /   0  10  40  80
SALINA           7  24  13  28 /   0   0  10  90
MCPHERSON        8  22  13  27 /   0  10  10  90
COFFEYVILLE     11  25  17  30 /   0  20  10  80
CHANUTE          9  23  16  29 /   0  10  10  90
IOLA             9  23  15  28 /   0  10  10  90
PARSONS-KPPF     9  24  17  30 /   0  10  10  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$