Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 061131
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

TODAY-TONIGHT:

RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS...BUT MAIN WARM AIR ADVECTION IMPACTS WILL
BE IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST
SHOULD WARM SEVERAL DEGREES...WITH EASTERN HALF ONLY SLIGHTLY
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SAME STORY FOR TONIGHT...WITH MINIMUMS
SLIGHTLY WARMER GIVEN MORE WIND AND MODEST INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE.

SAT-SUN:

CONSIDERABLE MODEL SPREAD WITH TIMING/LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION.
CONCERNED THAT WESTERN LOW MAY NOT BE AS PROGRESSIVE AS ADVERTISED.
CURRENT MODEL QPF SEEMS OVERDONE GIVEN QUESTIONABLE MOISTURE
RETURN AND TIMING THEREOF...UPPER DIFFLUENCE WITH EJECTING SPEED
MAXIMUM DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL ON/AFTER 0000 UTC SUN AND
UNCERTAINTY THAT LOW WILL EJECT AS QUICK AS CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
ANTICIPATE THAT PRECIPITATION WILL BREAK OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY SAT
NIGHT ON NOSE OF BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPPER DIFFLUENCE
AND PERSIST THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE NIGHT. WHILE MOST ORGANIZED CLUSTER
OF STORMS SHOULD EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST...SUSPECT PESKY SCATTERED ELEVATED
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER AND/OR REDEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
MAINLY EAST OF I-35 IN THE PREDAWN HOURS SUN...AND CONTINUE WELL
PAST SUNRISE. GIVEN THIS...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS ON SUN...AND
QUESTIONABLE TIMING ON UPPER WAVE...NOT SURE HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
THERE WILL BE FOR SEVERE CONVECTION ON SUN...OR WHERE DRYLINE WILL
BE. WOULD SEEM THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE CLOSER THE TO DRYLINE LATE SUN-SUN NIGHT...WHERE EVER THAT IS. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN EXTEND WITH ECMWF/GFS. TIMING OF UPPER
IMPULSES INTERACTING WITH STALLED FRONT WILL BE KEY...BUT DOUBT ANY
OF THE MODELS ARE DOING THAT WELL AT THIS POINT. OVERALL WOULD
PREFER TO HEDGE WARMER/DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTEND. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL KANSAS TODAY...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL MIXING...EXPECT WINDS
TO INCREASE IN SPEED AND TAKE ON A SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY COMPONENT
THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING HOURS INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE WESTERN MOST TERMINALS AND DECREASE
IN SPEED AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. TONIGHT WINDS WILL
DECREASE IN SPEED WHILE REMAINING SOMEWHAT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. TOWARDS THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON
SATURDAY 850MB FLOW WILL BE ON THE INCREASE...APPROACHING 45-50KT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE DEVELOP AT TERMINALS
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  56  86  60 /   0  10  10  20
HUTCHINSON      83  58  87  59 /   0  10  10  30
NEWTON          83  57  86  59 /   0  10  10  20
ELDORADO        82  57  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   83  56  85  60 /   0   0  10  20
RUSSELL         86  59  88  55 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      86  58  87  55 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          85  58  87  59 /   0  10  10  50
MCPHERSON       82  57  87  59 /   0  10  10  30
COFFEYVILLE     79  55  83  61 /   0   0   0  20
CHANUTE         81  56  84  60 /   0   0   0  20
IOLA            80  56  84  60 /   0   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    80  55  83  60 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMR


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