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000
FXUS63 KICT 210446
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Water vapor imagery shows pronounced upper impulse continuing to
lift northeast across NM. Sct storms have been persistent over nw
MO/sw IA where mid level baroclinic zone is situated with good
theta-e advection along this boundary. Cold front stretches across
Nebraska from northeast to southwest.

Should see another round of MCS activity tonight north of the
forecast area with the best chances over northern Nebraska and
especially IA. Moisture will continue to stream northeast into the
high Plains tonight as the southern stream impulse continues to
lift northeast. Not out of the question some iso-sct
showers/storms try and work into south central KS after midnight
associated with this feature. Should see showers/storms increase
in coverage during the day Mon across mainly central KS.

Still good model consistency in tracking robust shortwave energy
out of southern Canada and into the Great Lakes region Mon
evening. This will allow strong cold front to push south across
the central Plains. Confidence is high that widespread storms will
accompany the front as it sinks south, especially over northeast
KS where mid level moisture transport will be maximized. While a
strong to marginally severe storm cant be ruled out Mon night,
with precipitable water over 2 inches, feel that high rainfall
rates and flooding will also be a threat. This will be especially
true over eastern portions of forecast area.

By 12z Tue the front should be over extreme southern KS about
ready to push into OK with the front and precip south of the
forecast area by Tue afternoon. Much cooler and drier air is still
expected to spill-in behind the front with highs in the 80s
expected for Tue and Wed.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

Well below normal temps are expected to continue through the end
of the work week as highs top out in the 80s. There is some model
agreement in moving some upper energy out of the Rockies and
across the Plains Fri night through Sat night which will increase
shower/storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun Aug 20 2017

A small cluster of showers/storms should impact south-central KS
for a few hours past midnight, possibly impacting Wichita. Could
see isolated activity fester much of the night across south-
central KS, due to moistening mid-levels and a modest low-level
jet. Another chance for showers/thunderstorms arrives across
central and south-central Kansas near or shortly after midday
Monday, as additional monsoonal moisture and upper energy approach
from the southwest.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  93  73  87 /  20  20  50  40
Hutchinson      75  93  70  85 /  20  20  60  40
Newton          75  93  70  84 /  20  20  60  40
ElDorado        74  92  71  85 /  10  20  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   74  93  73  87 /  20  10  30  40
Russell         74  90  67  86 /  20  30  60  20
Great Bend      74  91  68  86 /  20  30  60  30
Salina          76  93  70  86 /  10  30  60  30
McPherson       74  93  69  85 /  20  30  70  40
Coffeyville     75  92  74  87 /  10  10  30  50
Chanute         74  91  73  85 /  10  20  50  60
Iola            74  91  72  84 /  10  20  60  70
Parsons-KPPF    74  92  74  86 /  10  10  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK