Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 282057
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
257 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO INHERITED FORECAST. STILL EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT COLD SNAP FROM MONDAY EVENING--WEDNESDAY...AS AN
ARCTIC AIRMASS SINKS SOUTH ACROSS MID-AMERICA. TEMPERATURES BY
DAWN TUESDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS OVER CENTRAL KS
TO NEAR 20 DEGREES OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS...WITH BELOW ZERO WIND
CHILLS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO STOUT NORTH WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
SUPPORT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES FROM LATE MONDAY
AFTERNOON--TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE. COLD
TEMPERATURES AND DEEP ISOTHERMAL LAYER WITHIN PREFERRED SNOW
GROWTH ZONE WILL SUPPORT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO PERHAPS 2
INCHES OVER CENTRAL KS...HIGHEST WEST OF GREAT BEND TO
LINCOLN...WITH A DUSTING TO ONE-HALF INCH ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND EAST-CENTRAL KS. HOWEVER...THE LAST FEW NAM RUNS
HAVE BUCKED THE TREND AND SUGGESTED A SECONDARY AREA OF ENHANCED
LIFT AND ASSOCIATED ACCUMULATIONS UP TO ONE INCH OR SO ACROSS
SOUTH-CENTRAL KS INCLUDING THE WICHITA AREA. THIS SOLUTION COULD
VERIFY...BUT FOR NOW WILL GO WITH MODEL CONSENSUS AND ALLOW LATER
SHIFTS TO FINE TUNE. DESPITE WEAK RETURN FLOW...CHILLY READINGS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

MODERATING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS A SOUTHWEST CONUS
TROUGH APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES
TO SUGGEST INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MEANINGFUL WINTRY
PRECIPITATION ANYTIME EARLY FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY...BUT
THERE REMAINS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE
AMPLITUDE...PHASE AND SPEED OF THE UPPER TROUGH. GFS ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE STILL ALL OVER THE PLACE...AND OPERATIONAL ECMWF...GFS
AND GEM RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY REMAINS LOW. CONSEQUENTLY...NOT
ENOUGH CERTAINTY TO NAIL DOWN SPECIFICS AT THIS POINT...SO STAY
TUNED FOR LATER FORECASTS.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST SUN DEC 28 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE EAST TODAY AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. SURFACE WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY COME AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND THEN SOUTHEAST TONIGHT BUT
WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    19  39  15  18 /   0  20  20  10
HUTCHINSON      19  36  11  15 /   0  20  40  10
NEWTON          20  36  10  15 /   0  20  30  10
ELDORADO        20  39  14  19 /   0  10  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   21  41  18  22 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         17  28   4   8 /  10  60  60  10
GREAT BEND      17  30   6   9 /  10  50  60  10
SALINA          19  33   9  14 /   0  40  50  10
MCPHERSON       18  35  10  14 /   0  20  40  10
COFFEYVILLE     21  42  21  27 /   0  10  10  10
CHANUTE         21  41  18  23 /   0  10  10  10
IOLA            21  39  17  22 /   0  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    21  42  20  26 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$



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