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000
FXUS63 KILX 062103
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
303 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

High pressure will provide quiet weather through tonight. A weak
shortwave passing by to the north of IL this afternoon could have
some lingering mid clouds in our northeastern counties early this
evening. A wave of high clouds will approach from the NW late
tonight. Otherwise, clear skies will prevail overnight. The pressure
gradient between a warm front entering NW IL this evening and high
pressure to the SE of IL will keep southerly winds in the 8-10kt
range in most areas. Those winds will help keep low temps a little
warmer, with readings ranging from the low 20s in the Wabash River
Valley to the low 30s from Jacksonville to Rushville.


&&

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

Models remain very consistent with continuing the warming trend over
the weekend and through most of next week. Northwest flow will
also continue, but warmer temps in the lower levels will continue
to advect northward through the period. There is one weak system
that drops southeast into the Grt Lks region. This could bring
pcpn to the northern part of the state and could bring some light
rain or snow to extreme northern parts of the cwa on Sunday.
Current thinking is that there will not be enough moisture to
produce pcpn, but will still have slight chance in extreme north.
However, this will only be seen in the grids and not in the worded
forecasts. Beyond Sunday, dry weather is expected through most of
the next week. The next chance of pcpn looks to be Friday as a
system moves northeast across the southern US. Extended models
spread pcpn into the southern third of the CWA during the day and
with warmer temps, all pcpn looks to be rain.

Temps will gradually warm through the period reaching the 50s to
near 60 for Tue through Friday.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR aviation weather conditions expected across the central
Illinois terminals through the 18Z TAF valid time, under high
pressure. A tighter pressure gradient between high pressure SE of
IL and a warm front NW of IL will produce gusty south winds the
rest of today, with gusts of 20-25 kts this afternoon into early
evening. Winds will diminish tonight to at or below 10kt, then
increase again toward 15kt tomorrow morning.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Auten
AVIATION...Shimon