669
FXUS63 KILX 150719
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
219 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing warmth and humidity will bring heat indices into the
  triple digits Wednesday afternoon. This will increase the risk
  of heat illness for vulnerable populations.

- Daily chances (30-60%) for thunderstorms exists today through
  the weekend. There is a slight risk for severe weather and
  excessive rainfall Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Today, the stationary front starts to shift northward, bringing in
more showers and thunderstorms. The storms will be of the typical
summertime airmass variety. They have already been popping up down
south of I-70 this morning. They will pop here and there for much of
the day. Any storms that do occur could produce decent rainfall
locally. A quick inch in rainfall would not be surprising. However,
location of where that rainfall will occur is uncertain due to the
scattered nature of the activity. Forecast soundings in southeastern
IL show a long, skinny CAPE profile, slow storm motions (~20 knots),
and PWATs around 2-2.3 inches, which would support very heavy
rainfall and localized flooding risk. SBCAPE values are around 2000-
3000 J/kg, with no CIN and low shear. Severe threat is not expected,
but strong wind gusts (up to 30-40 mph) would be possible within any
stronger downbursts.

Tomorrow (Wednesday), there is a slight risk for severe weather that
encompasses the northwestern corner of our forecast area and a
marginal risk that extends down to I-70. A shortwave is expected to
pulse across northern/central IL. Currently, this is looking to be a
late afternoon into evening event. The models are showing PWATs
around 2 inches, astronomical SBCAPE values (40-60% chance of >3500
J/kg), MLCAPE around 2000-3000 J/kg, and DCAPE around 1000-1400
J/kg. Concerns will be with a 2% tornado risk, and 15% wind risk.
There is some indication of bowing segments along a linear system.
Slow storm motions are shown on forecast soundings and potential for
training, so another flooding threat is being closely monitored. WPC
has added a slight risk ERO for the IL River and north.

Beyond Wednesday, periodic chances for showers and thunderstorms
exist into the weekend. WPC is already showing a slight risk of
excessive rainfall on day 5 (Saturday) for the I-74 corridor and
north.

Temperature wise this week. The hottest day of the week is
Wednesday, with the WAA in place pulling much more humid and hot
air. We can see heat indices of 100-105 degrees ahead of the
shortwave`s arrival. It will cool off ever so slightly on Thursday
and Friday. Then heat indices get back near or just above 100 again
for the weekend.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night)
Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Residual surface high pressure will keeps skies mostly clear and
winds light and variable overnight into Tuesday. Shallow patchy
fog may develop prior to sunrise, and have added MVFR visibility
for a couple hours (10z-12z) as a hedge. Otherwise, VFR conditions
will prevail well into Tuesday afternoon, though scattered
thunderstorms may develop in the vicinity of a frontal boundary.
Have maintained the PROB30 group at all terminals between 19z-01z
for the scattered thunderstorm potential and reduced visibility.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$