Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 261740

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
140 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The LONG TERM Section has been updated below.


Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Low pressure centered over Western Iowa will track to northern
Illinois by this evening...across northern Indiana tonight and
into the eastern great lakes Thursday.  Weak high pressure will
build our way Thursday night.  It will be warmer Friday into the
weekend with an increasing southerly flow across Indiana.

In the long term period...temperatures will be warmer than normal
with a strong upper ridge over the lower Mississippi valley.
An upper disturbance will bring a few showers to northern portions
of central Indiana Saturday night and Sunday.


.NEAR TERM.../Today and Tonight/
Issued at 1002 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Based on regional radar mosaics have made minor tweaks to morning
pops, holding onto slight chance of showers a bit longer and a bit
further south. Remainder of forecast in good shape. Previous
discussion follows.

Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Area of light showers were spreading east across central Indiana
mainly north of interstate 70.   These were being caused by strong
warm advection ahead of a warm front.  Expect these showers to
move east of our region by mid morning.   Models indicate a warm
front will move northeast across central Indiana today as low
pressure over western Iowa moves to northern Illinois by this

Once the first area of showers exit our should be dry
most areas until mid or late afternoon across northwest sections as
models have trended a little slower in spreading precipitation
southeast into our region this afternoon.  Will mention chance of
showers and an isolated thunderstorm across the northwest half of
our region by late afternoon.

Rain chances increase tonight as a cold front pushes southeast
across our region.  Went with likely POPS over the north half and
high chance POPS in the south.  Showers will probably end over
western sections late tonight after cold front moves through.

Went close to warmer MET temperatures today with some sun midday and
good warm advection for tonight stayed close to a MOS blend on
tempertures.    Anyways highs will be from around 60 north to lower
70s south and lows tonight from the upper 40s northwest to the
middle and upper 50s southeast.


.SHORT TERM.../Thursday through Friday Night/
Issued at 348 AM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Will mention a slight chance of showers far east early Thursday.
Otherwise it will be dry Thursday through Friday night.  A cold
front will be across Ohio and extreme southeast Indiana early
Thursday and this will move on to the east as high pressure over
Iowa builds to Indiana by Thursday night.  Models indicate weak cold
advection and lots of clouds Thursday with some clearing Thursday
afternoon.   Thursday night will be mostly clear southwest and
partly cloudy northeast and Friday will be mostly clear.

Stayed close to a MOS blend Thursday and Thursday night.  Friday
will be warmer as high pressure over Indiana moves on to the east
allowing an increasing southerly flow on Friday.  Went slightly
above MOS temperatures over western sections with lots of sun and
good warm advection.  The southerly flow will increase Friday night
and temperatures will become quite mild by then.


.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 140 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The models agree on the fundamentals. Westerly flow in the upper
atmosphere will result in mostly dry mild weather for Indiana. There
are discrepancies in details with weak waves aloft and weak surface

There is strong confidence the regional intialization, which will be
used for this package, will catch the main trends. Within that,
today`s forecast may by off by 2-4 degrees with temperatures and
5-15 percent with POPs.


.AVIATION (Discussion for 261800Z TAFs)...

Issued at 1249 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The period will begin with VFR. Widespread showers will develop
early tonight as a low pressure system approaches. The low should
cross Indiana 03Z-09Z, ending the showers but causing ceilings to
become mostly MVFR with areas of IFR. Visibilities are forecast
to continue mainly VFR.

Winds should slowly veer from south to the northwest through the
period as the low tracks past. Expect speeds near 10 knots.




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