Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 290831
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
430 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVER INDIANA EARLY TODAY AND THE
HOOSIER STATE WILL SPEND SOME TIME IN RELATIVELY WARM AIR THIS
WEEKEND UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS GOING TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND DOMINATE THE
WEATHER INTO MIDWEEK. WEDNESDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
TRAVERSE INDIANA. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWING THAT WILL REMAIN IN
CONTROL INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN CLIMBING LATER THIS MORNING AND CONTINUE
RIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. EVEN STRONGER WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION AS A SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE STATE EARLY
TODAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN HINTING AT SOME WEAK CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AND ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH AT
LEAST SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP POSSIBLE BY AS EARLY AS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VERY LOW CHANCES FOR MOST LOCATIONS ACROSS THE
CWA AFTER 20Z...15 TO 25 PERCENT POPS. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED AND
DEBATED ON GOING WITH DRIZZLE..HOWEVER NOT VERY CONFIDENT WITH THIS
AND LEFT IT AS LIGHT SHOWERS AT THIS TIME.

BASED ON VERY GOOD WARM AIR ADVECTION BUMPED UP GUIDANCE A FEW
DEGREES FOR THE MUCH ANTICIPATED ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS IN THE 50 TO 55
DEGREE RANGE. STRONG SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 KT THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

WARM AND SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE FILTERING OVER THE
AREA INTO TONIGHT AND THE FIRST HALF OF SUNDAY...ALONG WITH LOW
CHANCES FOR LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS. SUNDAY LOOKS WARMER THAN
SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S...AND ONCE AGAIN
WENT SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE GUIDANCE BASED ON THE WARM AIR ADVECTION.
WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA. TIMING FOR FROPA PASSAGE SEEMS A LITTLE FASTER THIS MODEL
RUN SO TRIED TO REFLECT THIS IN HIGHER CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING. WENT LIKELY MOST LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AROUND AND
SOUTH OF THE I 70 WHERE BEST MOISTURE AND LIFT CONVERGE LATE
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WHILE THE FRONT APPEARS TO
ARRIVE A LITTLE FASTER THAN ORIGINALLY TIMED...THE ACTUALLY FRONTAL
PASSAGE SEEMS A LITTLE SLOWER AND MIX PRECIP CONCERNS DO NOT ENTER
THE EQUATION UNTIL LATER MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN TWO
TIERS OF COUNTIES...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 10-16Z MONDAY
MORNING WHERE RAIN MAY MIX WITH SNOW BEFORE DROPPING SOUTH OF THE
CWA MONDAY AFTERNOON.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT THAT POST FRONTAL PASSAGE...COLD DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BRIEFLY RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL FOR THE REST OF
THIS PERIOD.


&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

ISSUED AT 314 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TRAVERSES THE AREA TUESDAY AND SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER
DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THOUGH A
FRONT WILL APPROACH CENTRAL INDIANA AND BRING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION IN FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT STALLS SOMEWHERE IN THE
VICINITY. UPPER FLOW WILL BE ZONAL DURING THIS TIME BUT MODELS ARE
SHOWING DIFFERENT TIMING ON WEAK SHORTWAVES RACING THROUGH THE MAIN
FLOW AND ENHANCING LIFT FROM THE STALLED FRONT. AT THIS TIME HAVE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A RAIN SNOW MIX WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN CASE OF AN
EARLY ARRIVAL SIMILAR TO THE GFS. AFTER THAT WILL GO WITH THE
INITIALIZATION CHANCE POPS THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BORDERLINE FOR RAIN OR SNOW IN THE NORTH THURSDAY OVERNIGHT
SO KEPT A MIX GOING THEN BUT OTHERWISE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH FOR
RAIN. WIT THE AFOREMENTIONED STALLED FRONT AND ZONAL FLOW
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
LONG TERM.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 290900Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 430 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

UPDATED CURRENT CONDITIONS ONLY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES POTENTIAL FOR CEILINGS 020-040 TO DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA BY THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY. NOT
SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT UPSTREAM AT THIS
TIME...AND THIS EVENING/S UPPER AIR INDICATES AIR MASS IS STILL
QUITE DRY NEAR THAT LEVEL. FOR NOW...WILL LEAVE THE LOWER CEILINGS
OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY SATURDAY.

SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY 160-180 DEGREES AT 7-10 KTS THROUGH MID
MORNING SATURDAY...WITH SOME GUSTS 20-24 KTS PROBABLE TOWARDS
MIDDAY.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....CP
AVIATION...JAS/CP

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