Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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FXUS63 KIND 202030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
430 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Aviation Section has been updated below.


Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

A ridge of upper high pressure could contribute to some fog
development again overnight, but will also keep dry weather and
above normal temperatures across the area through the weekend. The
next chance for precipitation in the forecast does not arrive
until Wednesday.


.NEAR TERM /This evening and tonight/...

Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Partly cloudy skies this afternoon with some scattered diurnal cu
showing up on satellite. An isolated shower isn`t out of the
question, but with upper ridging over the area anything that would
develop would be very isolated and short-lived. The cu will
dissipate with sunset.

Forecast focus for tonight is on fog formation. High pressure will
continue over the forecast area tonight and some low level moisture
will remain in place with clearing skies and light winds. RAP shows
soundings saturate at the low levels and develop a decent inversion
starting around 9z. HRRR has inversion developing by 9z but is not
saturated. GFS is not as saturated and the inversion is weak if it
even develops. Soundings from all seem to look most favorable at
KBMG and least at KLAF. MOS guidance also shows fog developing
during the overnight. Ground should be drier from full sunshine
today, so that could keep visibilities a little higher Thursday
morning than they were this morning. Given the variability, will go
with patchy fog across the north and areas of fog southeast but
no mention of dense fog and no headline.


.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Saturday/...

Issued at 321 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

After fog burns off Thursday morning, looking at a quiet forecast
period. Ridge of high pressure aloft will keep warm and dry
conditions in place over central Indiana. With good model agreement,
have high confidence of dry weather and above normal temperatures.
Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be the rule with mostly
clear skies. Low in the 60s are also expected.


.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Wednesday)...

Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Confidence is high surface pressure will cause dry, unseasonably
warm, weather through Tuesday. Temperature errors from the consensus
forecast should be 3 degrees or less.

Forecast confidence drops beginning Tuesday night. Temperatures
could be off by 3-5 degrees, and rain chances by 20 percent or more.

Forecast confidence declines midweek because is it is too early to
be certain how rapidly a cold front will move into Indiana from the
west. The front is going to bring relatively high rain chances and
cool temperatures, but models disagree about when that will be.
Until it arrives, Hoosier weather should stay dry and warm.


.AVIATION /Discussion for 20/21Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 430 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

Minor tweaks made to KIND TAF to better match current conditions.
No other changes are needed at this time.  Previous aviation
discussion follows...

VFR conditions through 11Z tomorrow for all terminals.

High pressure will persist across Indiana today with southerly
winds of 7-9 kts diminishing to 4-5 kts after sunset. Scattered
diurnal cu at 030 should dissipate after sunset. Patchy fog will
be possible again tomorrow morning with the best chance for BMG.




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