Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 220818
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
418 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
TODAY AND COLD TEMPERATURES WITH POTENTIAL FOR FROST TONIGHT. A
QUICK MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL BRING LOW SHOWER CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
BUT THEN DRY WEATHER UNDER UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY
WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY ANOTHER WAVE
COULD BRING MORE SHOWER CHANCES TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TODAY AND BRING DRY WEATHER
AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB WILL KEEP COLD
ADVECTION GOING THROUGH THE DAY AT THAT LEVEL BUT MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
WILL COUNTERACT THAT ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVING OVERHEAD TONIGHT SKIES WILL BE
CLEAR AND WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT TO CALM. THIS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TO LOWER MAV NUMBERS IN THE MID 30S. THIS SHOULD ALSO ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FROST TO AREAS OF FROST TO FORM. AFTER COLLABORATION WILL NOT
ISSUE ANY HEADLINE AT THIS TIME DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY BUT ONE MAY
NEED TO BE CONSIDERED WITH NEXT ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THURSDAY
NIGHT THE WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH AND COULD BRING LOW RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TO THE AREA. WHILE UPPER FORCING WITH THE WAVE LOOKS DECENT
THERE IS NO SUPPORT AT THE SURFACE AND NOT A LOT OF MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH SO WILL ACCEPT CONSENSUS POPS OF LOW CHANCE IN THE NORTH WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE SOUTH. FRIDAY TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM A BIT
MORE WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SOME SUNSHINE UNDER WEAK UPPER
RIDGING.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 352 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER CENTRAL INDIANA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.  IT
WON/T BE UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT WHEN THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP ARRIVES WITH AN UPPER LOW.  THE UPPER LOW WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL
TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA.  AS A RESULT...THERE WILL BE LOW
PRECIP CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.  TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOW 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 22/0900Z TAF UPDATE/...

ISSUED AT 417 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATE...
NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VFR SKY COVER SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. MVFR AND VFR
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TERMINALS BY ISSUANCE TIME
PER SATELLITE TRENDS. WOULD NOT RULE OUT OVERNIGHT FOG AT THE
SMALLER AIRPORTS BUT WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR MOVING IN...WILL LEAVE
IT OUT.

DIURNAL CU DEVELOPMENT PROGS AND MODEL TIME SECTIONS FAVOR JUST
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST 6 KNOTS OR LESS.


&&


.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&


$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK/TDUD

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