Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 271701
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1200 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
THE AVIATION SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM EASTERN IOWA TO EAST TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
OUR REGION LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT.  A DRY SECONDARY ARCTIC
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND TUESDAY. IN
THE LONG TERM AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING DRY AND COLD
WEATHER.  HOWEVER SOME MODELS INDICATE A CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION TOWARDS DAY 7 AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM DISCUSSION /REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 959 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

1430Z UPDATE...MAIN CHANGES WERE TO POPS TO SHOW THE LULL IN
PRECIP EARLY TODAY AND THEN PICKING BACK UP THIS AFTERNOON. FIRST
WAVE OF RAIN MOVED THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE SECOND WILL
BEGIN SPREADING IN CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND 18-20Z THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SO WARM (HIGHS AROUND
50 DEGREES ON AVERAGE) THAT PRECIP TYPE WILL NOT BE A CONCERN FOR
TODAY...THAT POSSIBLY COMES LATER TONIGHT. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE AT THIS TIME. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

RADAR LOOPS INDICATE AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WAS SPREADING INTO
WESTERN PARTS OF OUR REGION AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD EAST
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. SOME MODELS INDICATE THERE MAY BE A LULL
WITH THE RAIN TOWARDS MIDDAY AND THEN HAS IT INCREASING AGAIN AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES IN LATER TODAY.  WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS MOST
AREAS TODAY. CONCERNING TEMPERATURES CUT THEM A DEGREE OR TWO FROM A
MOS BLEND DUE TO PRECIP AND CLOUDS.

THE NAM ENDS THE RAIN TOO QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT.  THEY
HAVE IT ALREADY ENDED AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING FOR INDY AND AREAS TO
THE NORTHWEST.  ALL THE OTHER MODELS ARE NOT THAT FAST AND WILL GO
ALONG WITH THE SLOWER ENDING OF PRECIPITATION.  THIS SLOWER ENDING
MAY ALLOW A BRIEF CHANGE OVER TO MIXED PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWEST BY MIDNIGHT AND SOUTH TO THE I70 REGION BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY.
FOR TONIGHT WENT WITH A MOS BLEND OVER NORTHWEST SECTIONS AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE IN THE SOUTHEAST AS COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT BEGIN
THERE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

SEVERAL MODELS KEEP SOME PRECIPITATION ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE TRACKS ACROSS TENNESSEE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. WILL CONTINUE LOW CHANCE POPS THERE AT LEAST
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS INDICATE MIXED PRECIP
COULD OCCUR OVER EAST CENTRAL SECTIONS SUNDAY MORNING AND MOSTLY
RAIN FARTHER SOUTH.

DRY AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
SHORT TERM AS THE FIRST FRONTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST.

MOST MODELS INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S SUNDAY AND PERHAPS A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER MONDAY.  LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S SUNDAY NIGHT AND LOWER OR MIDDLE 20S MONDAY NIGHT AS A DRY
SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 347 AM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  SO...THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE NEXT SYSTEM
AT THE VERY END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GFS AND EURO ARE IN
AGREEMENT WITH A CLOSED LOW SITUATED OVER THE WEST/DESERT SOUTHWEST
ON TUESDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...ENTERING THE PLAINS ON
FRIDAY.  AT THAT POINT...THE GFS AND EURO START DIFFERING IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH THE GFS TAKING THE SYSTEM THROUGH THE
CENTRAL PLAINS...AND THE EURO KEEPING IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
THE EURO IS A TAD MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH PRECIP ENTERING
CENTRAL INDIANA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY MORNING.  MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS
HINTING AT PRECIP IN CENTRAL INDIANA AROUND FRIDAY NIGHT.  THESE
INCONSISTENCIES IN TRACK AND TIMING AT THIS TIME WILL MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO FORECAST PRECIP TYPE THIS FAR OUT.  BUT FOR
NOW...LOOKING AT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AND A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL INDIANA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 27/1800Z TAF ISSUANCE/...

ISSUED AT 1200 PM EST SAT DEC 27 2014

DECENT CONFIDENCE THAT MVFR OR WORSE FLYING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE OVER THE TERMINALS THE MAJORITY OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO VFR TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...RAIN WILL BE
INCREASING AT OR SHORTLY AFTER ISSUANCE TIME AND SHOULD END AFTER
04Z AT LAF...06Z AT IND AND HUF AND 08Z AT BMG.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD REACH LAF AND HUF AROUND 22Z AND IND AND BMG
AROUND 00Z. WINDS WILL SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO WEST AND THEN
NORTHWEST AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE 9 TO 12
KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND LESS THAN 10 KNOTS TONIGHT.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JH
NEAR TERM...SMF/JH
SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM....TDUD
AVIATION...MK

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