Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN

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000
FXUS63 KIND 300209
AFDIND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
1009 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
AVIATION SECTIONS UPDATED

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY MONDAY...RESULTING IN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /REST OF TONIGHT/...

ISSUED AT 957 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

UPPED POPS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTH BASED ON LATEST TRENDS
SEEN ON RADAR. CONVECTION ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
ILLINOIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN QUARTER OF THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WENT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL IN THE FAR NORTH
THEN.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE SHOWS A GOOD FLOW OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AS
WELL AS AN UPPER IMPULSE IN THE AREA. THIS IMPULSE IS IS WHAT IS
HELPING GENERATE THE CONVECTION. EXPECT CONVECTION TO GRADUALLY
DIMINISH AS THIS IMPULSE WEAKENS AND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

HOWEVER WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVERHEAD AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AROUND...WILL KEEP LOW POPS ALL AREAS OVERNIGHT.

UPPED SKY COVER TONIGHT WITH SATELLITE SHOWING EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER. ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

SPOTTY SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERING THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME REACHING THE SURFACE IN MANY AREA AS
THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE REMAIN FAIRLY DRY. EVEN THOUGH LIFT
AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH 22Z LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD RAIN REACHING THE SURFACE REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE. TAKING THIS DRIER TREND INTO CONSIDERATION HAVE BACKED
OFF SLIGHTLY ON POPS FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING AND GONE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO SLIGHT
CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS.

A BLEND OF MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT APPEARS REASONABLE GIVEN THE CLOUD
AND PRECIP CHANCES. LOWS MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. WILL KEEP
CHANCE POPS GOING FOR NOW...THOUGH LOWERED POPS SIGNIFICANTLY EARLY
ON SUNDAY AS LIFT AND INSTABILITY BOTH ARE LIMITED FROM 06Z-15Z
SUNDAY.

ON MONDAY MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS THE FORECAST AREA AS
DRY...EXCEPT FOR THE NAM WHICH BRINGS A WAVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW THIS APPEARS TO BE AN OUTLIER...SO WILL
KEEP MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DRY AND MONITOR MODEL TRENDS.

PROJECTED LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUGGEST THE SLIGHTLY WARMER MAV MOS
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE LOOKS MORE REALISTIC GIVEN RECENT WARMER TRENDS
SO TRENDED CLOSER TO THESE VALUES AS OPPOSED TO THE GENERALLY
COOLER NAM MOS.

HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRY AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE FOR
TUESDAY...PERHAPS THE WARMEST OF THE 7 DAY FORECAST PERIOD WITH
HIGHS FORECAST FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. MORE HUMID DEW POINTS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES TO THE LOW 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE UNITED STATES EAST OF
THE ROCKIES...WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST.
MULTIPLE UPPER LEVEL WAVES WILL RIDE OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE
KEEPING DAILY CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY REGIONAL INITIALIZATION.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION /DISCUSSION FOR THE 300300Z TAFS/...

WITH LITTLE PRECIP AND LINGERING CLOUDS AT THE IND TAF
SITE...HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE THE OVERNIGHT FOG MENTION ALONG WITH
ANY LINGERING VCSH MENTION. LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUES TO
SHOW A DECREASING TREND IN ECHOS ON RADAR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

/DISCUSSION FOR THE 300000Z TAFS/...

ISSUED AT 728 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD.

SCT LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND A SHORT
WAVE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER THROUGH THE NEXT 6 HOURS
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. ANY CIGS ACROSS THE AREA CONTINUE TO
REMAIN WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES
TO SHOW A TROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE SPREADING NORTHEAST ACROSS
INDIANA ALONG WITH IR IMAGES SHOWING GOOD CLOUD COVER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS AND TIME HEIGHT SECTIONS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A RATHER
SATURATED COLUMN OVERNIGHT AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S SHOULD BE REACHED ON SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF
ON ANY VCTS MENTION FOR NOW AS BEST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SHORTWAVE SHOULD BE MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE TAF SITES.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SMF
NEAR TERM...SMF/50
SHORT TERM...SMF
LONG TERM....MMB/CP
AVIATION...JP


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