Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
FXUS64 KJAN 242047
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
347 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2016
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Thursday night...
Latest satellite imagery showed mid-upper ridging over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Surface high pressure was centered east of
the region giving the cwa weak return flow. Mid afternoon temps
were on track with readings in the upper 80s to 90.
Mean high pressure will be prevalent through the short term for
generally quiet conditions. Low level mean moisture will gradually
increase through the period as pwats will range from 1.10 inches to
1.5 inches by thursday night. Dewpoints will gradually build into
the lower to upper 60s by Thursday afternoon. Such humid conditions
will send daily afternoon highs in the upper 80s to around 90 each
day. Nightly lows will start from the lower 60s east to around 70
west for tonight before building into the upper 60s to lower 70s by
As far as rain chances our concern expect dry conditions for
tonight. For Wednesday guidance pops tries to bring some low chances
across the west. Believe that with the capping mean ridge chances of
rain in the west will be quite low. So have maintain dry pops for
now going into Wednesday night. For Thursday there will be enough
moisture transport and instability for some low end convective
chances across the west.
LONGTERM...Friday through Monday...At the beginning of the period,
mid level ridge, which will have been somewhat persistent by this
time, is showing signs of buckling as flow has increased overtop and
system moves into the Rockies. Nevertheless, dry/warm air remains
entrenched over eastern areas in the lower levels as flow remains
weak southerly. These conditions look to remain in place on Friday
with isolated to scattered convection remaining confined to the
northwest half of the forecast area.
By Saturday, ridge axis will have pushed far enough east for a
broader southwest flow regime to setup over the area. The 12z models
of the GFS/Euro seem to have focused on a short wave extending from
a closed low over the central plains on friday night into Saturday.
The axis will mainly affect the northwest half until Saturday night.
This could allow a possible mcs to possibly touch our northwest
counties. Too early to say at this time...since the Canadian is not
focused on it. Either way should get some decent diurnal pops in the
northwestern counties. As we push into Sunday and Monday mean
ridging will build back over the region from the southwest...which
will lower our diurnal rain chances./17/26/
.AVIATION...Skies remain mostly clear across the region this
afternoon and mainly VFR flight categories will prevail at all TAF
sites over the area through Wednesday morning. Winds this afternoon
will continue to be south to southeasterly between 5-8 knots. These
winds will subside to light to calm this evening and overnight.
There will be slightly better chance of at least a few MVFR cats
popping up around the region around daybreak tomorrow, especially
across southern Mississippi. /BB/
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson 66 88 68 88 / 3 8 6 14
Meridian 62 88 64 88 / 3 5 2 9
Vicksburg 69 89 71 88 / 5 13 7 21
Hattiesburg 64 89 66 89 / 3 4 3 10
Natchez 69 88 71 86 / 5 13 10 22
Greenville 70 89 72 87 / 8 13 8 23
Greenwood 67 88 70 88 / 6 10 7 19