Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 050445 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1145 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.UPDATE... DID A QUICK UPDATE TO MAINLY ADJUST POPS AND WX THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE REGION IS FOCUSED IN
THE HEART OF A CONVECTIVE LULL IN THE WAKE OF ACTIVITY FROM EARLIER
TODAY WITH MAIN MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AXIS RUNNING IN AN ARC FROM
CENTRAL AL SOUTHWEST TO LAKE PONCHATRAIN...AND THEN NORTHWEST TO THE
ARKLATEX. LATEST HRRR SUGGESTS NEXT INCOMING LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH OVERHEAD TROUGH ALOFT WILL SPARK MOISTURE ADVECTION
SOMEWHERE ALONG AND/OR SOUTHWEST OF THE HIGHWAY 49 CORRIDOR LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...AT WHICH POINT POTENTIAL FOR
MORE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INCREASES A GREAT DEAL. POPS IN THIS
TIME FRAME FOCUSED ON THIS MENTIONED AXIS AND REDUCED ELSEWHERE. OF
COURSE SOME HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL EXIST WITH LATE NIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING ACTIVITY BUT UNCERTAINTY ON LOCATION AND TIMING A BIT
MUCH TO WARRANT TRYING TO PINPOINT JUST YET IN THE HWO. MAY DO THAT
WITH THE OFFICIAL EARLY MORNING PACKAGE. UPDATES OUT THE DOOR. /BB/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 918 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015/

UPDATE...RAIN AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE CWA. WILL ADJUST THE FORECAST TO CATCH THE
RAIN THAT LOOKS TO LAST A FEW MORE HOURS. MODELS SUGGEST RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF LATE THIS EVENING AND REDEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS
SEEM TO SUGGEST A RETROGRADING SURFACE RIDGE WILL PUSH A BOUNDARY AND
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CWA...WHERE CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP FROM THE
SOUTH AND MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THERE WAS DRY AIR MOVING IN BEHIND
THE DISTURBANCE AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK EAST THROUGH THE MIDSOUTH.
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST. MAY ADJUST THE FORECAST
TO MAKE RAIN LIKELY EVERY WHERE OVERNIGHT OR LEAST INCREASE POPS IN
THE SOUTH. WILL TWEAK HOURLY VALUES TO ACCOUNT FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES...BUT OTHERWISE LOWS WERE GOOD./7/

AVIATION...AN AREA OF MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN WL AFFECT HKS/JAN 01-03Z
THEN HBG 03-05Z BEFORE DISSIPATING. MODELS STILL SUGGEST ADDITIONAL
DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z BUT DIFFER ON WHERE.
OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WL BE PSBL UNTIL 14Z. SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN SUNDAY. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       70  84  72  89 /  37  59  60  23
MERIDIAN      70  83  69  89 /  29  58  64  37
VICKSBURG     70  85  73  91 /  54  59  52  16
HATTIESBURG   71  84  73  91 /  50  66  34  18
NATCHEZ       71  87  73  90 /  59  61  22  15
GREENVILLE    71  86  72  90 /  20  46  60  23
GREENWOOD     68  85  71  89 /  18  47  53  30

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

BB/7/22


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