Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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000
FXUS64 KJAN 292032
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
332 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL ACROSS THE ARKLAMISS WITH ANOTHER DAY OF HOT TEMPERATURES.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY WITH GREATER THAN 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA
ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT
INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

A SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE A WELCOME RELIEF TO THE HEAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR QUITE SOME TIME. THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE
THAT TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
HOT...WITH HEAT INDICES CLIMBING FROM 106-110 ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY SLIGHTLY COOLER
AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BUILD SOUTH THROUGH
FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE PLENTIFUL ON THURSDAY WITH PWATS
UP CLOSE TO 2.0 INCHES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY
SOME OF THE STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE. WILL INTRODUCE A
LIMITED AREA FOR SEVERE FOR AREAS GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR.

THE BOUNDARY WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
...USHERING SOME DRIER AIR AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. DRIER AIR WILL BE IN PLACE ON FRIDAY WITH PWATS
FALLING TO AROUND 1.0-1.2 INCHES ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. A COUPLE
OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE RAIN FREE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. /15/

.LONG TERM...LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY)...GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO OFFER A STEADY SOLUTION FOR THE MED RANGE/LONG TERM. BY
FRI...THE PATTERN WILL HAVE ADJUSTED SOME WITH THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE
CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND OUR CWA WILL BE SITUATED MORE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY. WHAT HAS BEEN TALKED ABOUT IN THE PREV DAYS FORECASTS IS A
WEAK SFC FRONT PUSHING WELL INTO THE CWA BY FRI AND BRINGING DRIER
AIR TO THE REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THE RESULT WILL BE LOWER HUMIDITY
FRI-MON WITH SOME COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS (UPPER 60S FOR N HALF). THE
DEEP DRY AIR WILL LIMIT PRECIP POTENTIAL AND ONLY LOW END CHANCES
10-20% ARE BEING ADVERTISED OVER THE FAR SE. WITH RELIEF FROM THE
HUMIDITY...ONE MIGHT THINK TEMPS WILL BE COOLER. THIS WILL NOT BE THE
CASE. INITIALLY HIGHS MAY BE 2-3 LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
SEEING...BUT MID 90S ARE EXPECTED WITH A TREND BACK TOWARD MORE UPPER
90S FOR THE TUE-WED TIMEFRAME. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY ARISE DUE TO
THE LOWER RH VALUES...THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED. /CME/

&&

.AVIATION...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE PREVALENT DAYS AT TERMINALS
GENERALLY EAST OF I-55. THIS ACTIVITY COULD BRING QUICK CIG/VISBY
REDUCTIONS AND POTENTIALLY A STRONG GUST OF WIND. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 01Z. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF
MVFR RESTRICTIONS AFTER 09Z IN THE EAST BEFORE LIFTING BY 12Z.
/17/


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       75  97  75  94 /  26  47  14   6
MERIDIAN      73  96  73  92 /  33  57  25  13
VICKSBURG     75  99  73  95 /  21  39  12   4
HATTIESBURG   74  97  76  94 /  36  62  41  26
NATCHEZ       76  98  74  93 /  25  46  22  12
GREENVILLE    78  96  71  93 /  16  24   7   0
GREENWOOD     75  96  70  93 /  18  29   8   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR MSZ036>039-042>066-
     072>074.

     HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ025>033.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MSZ018-
     019-034-035-040-041.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MSZ034-035-040-041.

LA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LAZ016-023>026.

     EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LAZ007>009-015.

AR...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ074-
     075.

     HEAT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

15/JAN/19


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