Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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091
FXUS64 KJAN 300109 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
809 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT AS THE
LAST OF TODAY`S ACTIVITY WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE NORTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD IN FROM THE WEST SATURDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WERE KNOCKED DOWN ALONG THE HIGHWAY 82
CORRIDOR DUE TO THE EARLIER CONVECTION. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPERATURE
CURVES BUT WITH CONTINUED CLOUD COVER AND AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WIND
THROUGH THE NIGHT MORNING LOWS STILL LOOKED ON TRACK. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY WAS DISSIPATING OVER THE NE AT
01Z AND NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT UNTIL AFTER
12Z IN THE NW. VFR CONDS WL PREVAIL THIS EVNG BUT MVFR/IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY 10Z AREAWIDE AND CONT UNTIL 15Z. VFR CONDS WL
PREVAIL SAT AWAY FROM TSRA ACTIVITY WHICH WILL BEGIN IN THE NW SAT
MORNING AND SPREAD OVER THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE AREA DURING THE
AFTN. /22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 359 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016/

..SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AN INCREASING THREAT IN THE SHORT TERM...

SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES...WHICH HAD BECOME
NEGATIVELY TILTED WITH AN ASSOCIATED NEARLY CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION. AN UPPER JET SEGMENT OF 110 KNOTS WAS COMING AT THE
BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES WAS COMING OUT OF
THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE
SUBTROPICAL JET WAS NOTED TO THE SOUTH OVER THE GULF. OTHERWISE AN
MCS WAS NOTED AROUND THE MIDSOUTH REGION...WHICH HAS SOME SEVERE AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN RISKS. THE ACTIVITY WAS STAYING NORTH OF I-20 DUE
TO THE STRENGTH FOR THE CAP ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF OF THE REGION. ON
THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS NOTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.

FOR TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT AN ACTIVE PERIOD AS THE
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGS IN A SERIES OF SHORT
WAVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL BRING A RISK OF SOME SEVERE
WEATHER FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT AND FOR THE WESTERN AREAS ON SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE WILL BE GOOD INSTABILITY AND FORCING WITH
THESE SHORT WAVES. THE PRIMARY RISKS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS...GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO.  PER
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION IT WILL PROBABLY BECOME MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN
ISSUE AS WE PUSH INTO THE SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS FAR AS HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL IS CONCERN MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE
IMPRESSIVE WITH PWATS AROUND 1.8 TO 2 INCHES...WHICH WILL BRING SOME
FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE LOOKING AT
AROUND 3-5 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. WPC HAS A
SLIGHT RISK OF EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE EXTREME
NORTHWEST FOR TONIGHT...THEN MOST OF THE AREA FOR SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THE MODELS BRINGING WAVE AFTER WAVE OVER THE
CWA WILL PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. WILL BEGIN IN THE NORTHWEST
AREA FOR TONIGHT...THEN EXPAND ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION FOR
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SO WITH THIS IN MIND PUT IN HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE GRIDS.

FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...OUR CHANCES OF CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM. WPC HAS A SLIGHT
RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE FOR THE SOUTH
DURING THE PERIOD GENERALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. FOR NOW
WILL NOT MENTION LOCALLY HEAVY ON ANY GRAPHICS FOR THIS PERIOD.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE 60S./17/

LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE OUR RAIN CHANCES THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SHARP SHORTWAVE
WILL FINALLY END THE RAIN FROM THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUT
THE REGION UNDER A DEEP UPPER TROUGH WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES. SO DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SET UP A DRY PERIOD REGIME
OVER THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AS WE MOVE INTO
THE WEEKEND MODELS DIFFER ON WHAT KIND OF UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER
THE REGION IN ANY CASE THIS WILL CONTINUE OUR BOUT OF DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACCORDING TO THE GFS...WHILE THE EURO TRIES TO
BRING IN SOME RAIN BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERN HIGHS WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS
WILL BE MAINLY IN THE 50S./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       68  84  66  80 /  14  51  71  60
MERIDIAN      66  86  67  81 /  14  30  55  61
VICKSBURG     69  83  66  81 /  26  67  70  52
HATTIESBURG   68  87  70  82 /   6  28  36  65
NATCHEZ       70  82  67  80 /  13  65  67  61
GREENVILLE    66  81  65  82 /  63  61  65  35
GREENWOOD     64  82  66  81 /  45  51  66  50

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR MSZ018-019-025-034-
     035-040-041.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR MSZ026>029-032-036-037-042>044-047>050-053>055-059>063.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR LAZ007>009-015-016-
     023.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING
     FOR LAZ024>026.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR ARZ074-075.

&&

$$

22/17



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