Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 250004
AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
604 PM CST Fri Nov 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion:
Expecting VFR conditions to prevail across the area through the
forecast period. A boundary was expected to move through Saturday
afternoon with high ceilings developing by morning. With heights
expected to be well above 3KFT and winds generally 10kts or less,
even as they shift, decided to maintain VFR conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Tonight and Saturday:

A pleasant holiday weekend continues across the region as the
ArkLaMiss remains under troughing aloft. A dry cold front/boundary
will make its way south tonight through tomorrow across the region,
which will keep conditions dry and cool, but not too cool.
Temperatures tomorrow will warm into the upper 60s and some lower
70s under sunny skies with some high clouds present. Lows tonight
will be cool with readings in the upper 30s and lower 40s. /28/

Saturday Night through Friday:

A progressive weather pattern will be in place across the CONUS this
weekend through the end of next week, with most of the focus of
this forecast for the ArkLaMiss region being on temperatures and
the timing of a few probably dry cold fronts through the end of
the week. Model guidance is in good agreement with the timing and
strength of features through next Wednesday, with the operational
GFS coming in slower with a shortwave trough for the second half
of the week than either the ECMWF or the various ensemble means.
This forecast leans more heavily toward the ECMWF with regards to
timing of features for later next week.

Regarding expected sensible weather for the forecast area, a
shortwave trough dipping down through northwest flow aloft will
guide another reinforcement of cooler surface high pressure on
Sunday, with another frosty morning possible if calm winds and
clear skies allow temperatures to bottom out Sunday night.
Shortwave ridging aloft and the return of southerly winds at the
surface will result in a warming trend for temperatures Monday
through Wednesday. Then depending on exactly how the next trough
develops, a shortwave or two look to stay north of our forecast
area during the Wednesday/Thursday time frame before a deeper,
positively tilted shortwave sweeps across the country. Again,
favoring the ECMWF for that period, a more substantial cold front
will likely push through the forecast area by Thursday or Friday.
Limited moisture return ahead of this front should yield the only
real chance for precip in the next 7 days, with at least a slight
chance for light rain showers currently expected. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       41  69  41  66 /   0   2   0   0
Meridian      39  68  40  64 /   0   2   0   0
Vicksburg     40  70  40  65 /   0   2   0   0
Hattiesburg   38  69  40  66 /   0   2   0   0
Natchez       40  70  41  66 /   0   1   0   0
Greenville    42  67  39  63 /   0   2   0   0
Greenwood     42  66  37  64 /   0   3   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&


$$



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