Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 201752
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1252 PM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.AVIATION...BEST CHANCE FOR TSTMS LOOKS TO BE TO THE WEST
INCLUDING BPT. SUFFICIENT CAPES AND PRECIP WATER FOR TEMPO IFR VIS
MVFR CIGS WITH GUSTS TO 25KTS AT BPT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BETTER AT
BPT AS WELL SO WENT WITH MVFR CIGS LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

ELSEWHERE CHOSE TO GO WITH VCTS AS COVERAGE LOOKS TO BE LESS
SCATTERED. DELAYED VCTS UNTIL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AT AEX BASED ON
CURRENT TRENDS. POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT AEX LATE TNITE.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

UPDATE...RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING INLAND AS WELL
AS CONTINUING OVER THE NEAR COASTAL WATERS. MORNING SOUNDING
SHOWING A PRECIPITABLE WATER OF 1.76 INCHES...WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING AN INCREASE TO ABOVE 2 INCHES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WITH NORTHWARD APPROACH OF WEST GULF SHORTWAVE ABOUT
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF BERMUDA HIGH...ALONG WITH A MORE DEFINED AND
STRENGTHENING SEABREEZE...HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY
AREA-WIDE. WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...WHILE LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL
AGAIN BE EXTENSIVE.

MARCOTTE

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 404 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS THE N
GULF KEEPING A S TO SE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. RADAR SHOWING ISO
SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MOST OF THEM ARE DISSIPATING BY
THE TIME REACHING THE COAST.

WITH RICH MOISTURE CONTINUING IN PLACE...AFTERNOON HEATING (HIGHS
IN THE LOWER/MID 90S) ALONG WITH THE SEA BREEZE FRONT LIKELY TO SET
OFF SCT SHRA/TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR. PRECIP CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET.

PRECIP CHANCES EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THU AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID/UPPER
LEVELS BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. WITH THIS WILL COME
GRADUALLY INCREASING TEMPS...WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S...AND
HIGHS IN THE MID 90S COMMON...WITH MID/UPPER 90S EXPECTED NORHT OF
I-10 LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DML

MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD WEST ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MAINLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW DURING THE DAYTIME...WITH A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS TO MODERATE LEVELS AT NIGHT.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS AND SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER
NEAR THE STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  91  78  93  77  93 /  50  20  30  10  20
KBPT  92  79  92  78  92 /  50  20  20  10  20
KAEX  95  75  95  75  96 /  40  20  30  10  20
KLFT  92  77  93  76  93 /  50  20  30  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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&&

$$






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