Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 251602

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1102 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

Widespread convection continues over the coastal waters this
morning, with little development inland so far. However, expect
things to start getting active within the next hour or so with
air temps near or abv convective temp, combined with a rather
broad mid/upper trof over the Gulf and ample moisture with precip
water values again close to max (2.4-2.5 inches) for this time of

At this time, POPs are a little overdone inland even with some
adjustments this morning based on recent HRRR runs. However, as
mentioned abv, think things will start developing soon so will
keep chc/likely values as is. Otherwise, made some minor tweaks to
hourly temps/dewpoints based on recent obs, and updated zones for
minor adjustments to wording.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 615 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

12z taf issuance.

SCT SHRA/TSRA already across coastal waters, drifting north across
the coastal parishes/counties across the region. VCSH for southern
sites transitioning to VCTS by 14z. Greatest chances for SHRA/TSRA
likely come between 18-22z today, placing tempo group for this for
ARA/LFT/LCH/BPT, and a couple of hours later for AEX as the
convection moves inland. Diminishing convection expected after
sunset this evening. Light SE winds 5-8 kts expected outside


PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016/

DISCUSSION...Radar depicting just a few showers over the
immediate coast and near coastal waters. Increasing activity
expected as the night progresses. Considerable cirrus debris
remains over the area associated with earlier shower and
thunderstorm activity to our north.

Unsettled weather pattern continues appears to be setting up
through the week and respectable rain chances will be carried
daily. Evening LCH sounding showing precipitable water well above
the norm coming in at 2.43 inches. Normal for late July is near
1.8 inches. Deep moisture progged similarly by models to hold
through the week. This as inverted se-nw oriented mid and upper
level trof now positioned from the eastern gulf and through the
lower Mississippi valley slowly edges west. Feature progged to
reach the western gulf or just inland toward mid-week and linger
between subtropical and southwest CONUS highs. Resultant cloud
cover and rains will act to keep temperatures at or just below
the norm.

MARINE...A weak surface trof over the northwest Gulf will yield
light and somewhat variable winds today and into Tuesday. The
subtropical high will become reestablished over the gulf waters
for mid-week with a light onshore flow returning. Low pressure
aloft will maintain a daily chance for showers and thunderstorms.



AEX  91  73  92  74 /  50  30  40  30
LCH  90  76  90  77 /  60  30  50  50
LFT  90  76  90  76 /  60  30  60  50
BPT  91  76  90  76 /  70  30  50  40


.LCH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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