Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 250854
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
354 AM CDT Sun Jun 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface frontal boundary working its way to the south across the
forecast area this early morning. As of 25/07Z boundary is located
roughly between the Highway 190 and I-10 corridors. Frontal
boundary looks to be shallow when looking at area vad wind
profiles with shower activity still lingering behind the frontal
boundary across interior Southeast Texas and west central
Louisiana...and typical summertime nocturnal shower activity has
also developed over the Gulf. Moisture profiles still on the high
side with LAPS and GPS-MET data as of 25/08Z indicating
precipitable water values between 1.9 and 2.1 inches across the
forecast area.

Rua

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Surface frontal boundary will slowly move down to the coast before
stalling later today. Still plenty of rich Gulf moisture to work
with as PWAT values to remain around 2 inches and Mean RH over 70
percent. Aloft, upper level weakness and shear axis will remain
over the region. Therefore, combination of these features will
allow for elevated rain chances today. Best chance for pops during
the morning hours look to be northern zones along and just behind
the frontal boundary, then in the afternoon further south as
decent lift should set up along the convergence region between the
surface front and the sea breeze.

With high moisture content and weak steering currents, could be
some isolated heavy rainfall, especially where focus occurs along
colliding boundaries, as rainfall rates will likely be around 2
inches with the stronger convection. Thus, a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall has been outlined for the forecast area by the
Weather Prediction Center, mainly if these high rainfall rates
occur over poor drainage urban areas. Also, conditions will be
favorable for the formation of tropical funnel clouds, especially
in the development stage of convection near colliding boundaries.

Frontal boundary will stall along the coast and hang out over the
next couple of days, with drier air pivoting northeast to
southwest into the region as high pressure tries to build in
behind the front. Therefore, best chance for shower activity for
Monday and Tuesday will be confined to coastal regions. The mixing
in of some continental air will lower PWAT values and also
reduce the risk for heavy rainfall.

By mid week, high pressure will set up off the Mid-Atlantic coast
and ridge westward. This will allow for a deep southeasterly flow
to again bringing in rich Gulf moisture and an increase in rain
chances, especially on Thursday, as a bit of a disturbance rotates
around the ridge and across the forecast area.

By the end of the week into next weekend, typical summertime
weather pattern sets up with the sub-tropical ridge off the
Southeast coast building into the forecast area. Hot and humid
conditions with a small chance of a daily afternoon showers and
storms will be the result.

Rua

&&

.MARINE...
Weak pressure pattern across the coastal waters will be noted for
the remainder of the weekend into early next week as a weak
frontal boundary meanders near the coast. This will allow for a
light east to east-northeast wind flow and rather low seas.
However, high moisture values will interact with the front for
elevated chances of showers and thunderstorms into Monday. Winds
and seas will be locally higher near the storms.

By mid week, high pressure off the southeast coast will ridge
across the northern Gulf with a more predominate moderate
southeast flow developing and building seas for Wednesday and
Thursday.

Rua

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  84  67  88  68 /  40  10  20  10
LCH  86  73  87  73 /  60  40  40  20
LFT  86  71  87  70 /  60  30  30  10
BPT  87  72  87  73 /  60  40  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...07


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