Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 180340
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
940 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Current forecast is on target with only minor tweaks to first
period grids to bring them closer to hourly observations and
latest guidance. Another cold night/morning is in store with the
sub-freezing temperatures already observed across the area
expected to bottom out in the lower/mid teens north and upper
teens/lower 20s south.

Nixed the low water advisory a little early with tidal readings
above advisory criteria, having just passed the time of predicted
astronomical high tide. Another advisory could be warranted for
the time of predicted low tide THU morning, but will let the
overnight crew further evaluate.

13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 534 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

AVIATION...Strong high pressure over the region will maintain
clear skies and light winds. VFR ahead.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 416 PM CST Wed Jan 17 2018/

SYNOPSIS...
Cold high pres continues to build south into the region this aftn,
currently centered acrs eastern AR. Temperatures remain well
below mid January norms despite ample sunshine, having "warmed"
to near 30 over the eastern zones and into the middle/upper 30s
acrs western LA/southeast TX. Very dry air continues to spread
south over the region, with 12Z soundings acrs the region showing
precip water around 0.1 inch or less.

24

DISCUSSION...
Temperatures will plummet again by this evening as winds diminish
to less than 5 mph. The combination of clear skies, light winds
and a very dry airmass will allow for very good radiational
cooling overnight. Thus, hard freeze conditions are expected to be
met shortly after sunset. A Hard Freeze Warning is in effect for
this evening into Thursday morning, as overnight lows fall to the
middle teens north, around 20 along the I-10 corridor and lower
20s near the coast.

Thursday will be another sunny but cold day as temperatures climb
into the 40s. Winds will remain light as the high will be centered
over the lower MS Valley. By Friday, the high will move east, and
southeasterly flow returning will bring an increase in
temperatures and dewpoints. Highs Friday aftn are expected into
the 50s. A low chc for rain will develop acrs southeast TX and
far western LA as a shortwave quickly transits the region.

A stronger low pres system will follow on its heels, exiting the
southern Rockies on Sunday, and bringing a cold front into the
area for late in the weekend. Moisture will increase on south to
southwest flow ahead of the system, with a decent chc for showers
and a few thunderstorms along and ahead of the front from late
Sunday into early Monday. Temperatures over the weekend will be in
sharp contrast to these past few days, with lows in the 40s
Saturday and 50s Sunday while highs will be in the upper 60s to
lower 70s by Sunday aftn. The next front will not be of Canadian
origin therefore the air behind it will not be as extreme as we
have had over the last several weeks. Temperatures should return
to near climatological normals by the middle of next week.

24

MARINE...
Northeasterly winds will continue to diminish tonight as high
pressure settles over the lower Mississippi Valley. Exercise
caution conditions will continue this evening over the coastal
waters beyond 20 nm. In addition, water levels along coastal
waterways and navigation channels will remain below predicted
levels this evening before beginning to recover by early Thursday.
Thus, a low water advisory will remain in effect through at least
midnight.

Winds will begin shift east on Thursday and southeast by Friday
as the sfc high moves east of the region. A light to moderate
onshore flow will then persist into the weekend, with another
front expected to move through late Sunday into early Monday.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  14  41  24  49 /   0   0   0  10
LCH  19  41  30  53 /   0   0   0  20
LFT  18  41  28  53 /   0   0   0  10
BPT  20  41  33  54 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST Thursday for LAZ027>033-
     041>045-052>055-073-074.

TX...Hard Freeze Warning until 10 AM CST Thursday for TXZ180-201-215-
     216-259>262.

GM...Small Craft Exercise Caution until midnight CST tonight for
     GMZ470-472-475.

&&

$$



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