Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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000
FXUS64 KLCH 311708
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1208 PM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.AVIATION...A DEEP AND DRY NORTHERLY FLOW NOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. VFR TO CONTINUE WHILE WINDS REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 955 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

UPDATE...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS LOCATED ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING...AND WILL PUSH A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH BEFORE EVENTUALLY
STALLING AND WASHING OUT THIS WEEKEND. DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL FILTER IN AND MIX IN DURING THE DAY. CURRENTLY DEW POINTS
ARE IN THE LOWER 70S COMPARED TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S FROM
YESTERDAY. THIS WILL HELP KEEP HEAT INDEX READINGS CLOSER TO 100
DEGREES THIS AFTERNOON COMPARED TO 110 DEGREES. ALSO...ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD BE MAINLY SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WHERE THE DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOCATED. OVERALL THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND MADE ONLY SLIGHT MODIFICATIONS TO THE
GRIDS AT THE UPDATE TIME IN THE FIRST PERIOD.

RUA

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 609 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALONG
WITH GENERALLY NORTH WINDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL RANGE FROM 6 TO 12
KNOTS THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 522 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
CDFNT ANALYZED THIS MORNING VERY NEAR THE COAST...WITH A LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW NOTED ACROSS THE AREA. SFC DEWPOINTS ARE STARTING
TO DECLINE ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WITH MID/UPPER 60S NOT TOO
FAR AWAY OVER NORTHEAST LA/WEST CENTRAL MS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A
SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION JUST OFF THE SOUTH CENTRAL LA COAST.
RIDGE ALOFT HAS SHIFTED WEST PER LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS/WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND IS NOW CENTERED ROUGHLY NEAR THE TX PANHANDLE.

DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND AMID THE DEEP CONTINENTAL
NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE SE FLANK OF THE DEEP LATER RIDGE TO THE
WEST. OB TRENDS OVERNIGHT SUGGEST THE DRY AIR IS PROGRESSING ON
SCHEDULE...WHICH ALONG WITH THE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...SHOULD
RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA. VALUES OVER
THE COUNTIES/PARISHES ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-10 WILL STILL REACH THE
100 TO 105 RANGE...SO SENSIBLE PRECAUTIONS ARE STILL WARRANTED.

BULK OF ANY CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG/SOUTH OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE DEEP MSTR POOL...PRIMARILY OVER THE
GULF WATERS...BUT DID HOLD ONTO A SMALL POP OVER COASTAL AREAS
INVOF OF THE BOUNDARY.

COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS AMID
THIS UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS...THOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL
EXPECTED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID/UPPER 90S.

FRONT IS FCST TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT LIFT BACK TO THE NORTH ON SUNDAY AS THE LOW
TO MID LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BEGINS TO BUILD WEST ACROSS THE GULF. THE RETURNING MSTR AND
PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW WILL BRING LOW TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE
NORMAL...WHILE MODERATING HIGH TEMPERATURES A BIT ALONG THE
COAST. ALSO RETURNING WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND SMALL DAILY RAIN
CHANCES.

13

MARINE...
A LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED INTO THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...MERGING WITH AN
EXISTING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST GULF. THE FRONT
IS FORECAST TO RETREAT NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY...WITH ONSHORE FLOW
PREVAILING THROUGH THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  94  70  96  70 /   0   0  10  10
LCH  96  73  96  74 /  10  10  10  10
LFT  95  73  96  75 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  98  75  97  74 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...23


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