Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 020422
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1122 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015

.DISCUSSION...
FOR THE 02/06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY AT TAF SITES WITH JUST A LITTLE MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM LEFT OVER CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...MAY SEE SOME LIGHT PATCHY FOG AT TAF SITES
THAT HAVE HAD RECENT RAIN AROUND SUNRISE. THEREFORE...PLACED A
TEMPO GROUP FROM 02/09Z-12Z FOR MVFR VISIBILITIES. MAINLY VFR OF
TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVEL CONTINUES TO FILTER IN
SUPPRESSING CONVECTION...WITH JUST A FEW TO SCATTERED FAIR WEATHER
CU DURING DAYTIME HEATING.

RUA

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 933 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

UPDATE...SHOWERS EARLIER THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA HAVE EITHER WEAKENED OR SHIFTED EAST OF THE AREA. WINDS
ARE NEAR CALM ALMOST EVERYWHERE. MAY DO A FEW TEMPERATURE TWEAKS
FOR LOWS TONIGHT...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 330 PM CDT MON JUN 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
MID-AFTERNOON SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS OUR MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
JUST EAST OF THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN...WITH OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE
PROVIDING A DRIER NRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROF AXIS ALSO JUST
TO OUR EAST...PROVIDING A DRY NRLY FLOW ALOFT. COMBO OF ALL THIS
HAS JUST BEEN SOME FAIR WEATHER CU AND LITTLE ON RADAR THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OVER MAINLY LOWER ACADIANA.

NOT MANY CHANGES TO THE INHERITED GRIDS/ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH
OF THE COMING WEEK LOOKS DRY AS ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
RUN A GOOD BIT LOWER THAN IT HAS OF LATE...ALONG WITH A LACK OF
GOOD FOCUS MECHANISMS PASSING ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY
SHOWER OR STORM NEAR THE COAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT...BUT HAVE KEPT PRECIP MENTION
OUT OF THE FORECASTS FOR NOW AS COVERAGE JUST DOESN`T LOOK HIGH
ENOUGH TO WARRANT A MENTION. AS THE RIDGE ALOFT NUDGES EWD EXPECT
DAYTIME TEMPS TO CLIMB SLOWLY AS WELL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

BY THE WEEKEND THE RIDGE IS PROGGED TO SLIP BACK WWD A BIT...
ALLOWING WEAK DISTURBANCES TO BEGIN ENCROACHING THE REGION. BEST
SHOT AT RAIN FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AS THE
FIRST OF THESE IMPULSES CROSSES...WHILE THE SEA BREEZE ADDS A
LITTLE EXTRA PUNCH.

MARINE...
NOT MUCH WIND ON THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING IN CONTROL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  65  87  66  88 /  10  10   0  10
LCH  67  89  69  88 /  10  10   0  10
LFT  69  88  69  88 /  10  10  10  10
BPT  67  89  69  88 /  10  10   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...07


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