Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 240931
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
431 AM CDT Tue Oct 24 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Progressive is the name of the game for the next week or so.

GOES-R satellite and radar imagery indicate the anticipated reinforcing
cold front is currently nearing the I-10 corridor, and is forecast
to continue quickly southward through the rest of the morning. A
relatively cool and dry airmass already in place will become even
more so, with dewpoints currently around 50F expected to drop
into the lower/mid 30s by this afternoon amid a steady and at
times gusty north wind. Latest guidance indicates we should remain
below wind advisory criteria, with sustained speeds near 15mph
and gusts into the lower 20s. Despite a virtually cloud free sky
allowing for plenty of solar insolation, temperatures will still
top out below seasonal normals, generally in the lower/mid 70s.

Surface winds are forecast to relax away from the coast tonight,
though not go completely calm with the SFC high remaining well to
our west. This along with a continued clear sky will yield good
though not optimal radiational cooling, with overnight temperatures
falling into the 40s. Wednesday looks similar to today, albeit
with less wind and a little cooler.

As the upper trof helping to send this front through the area
pivots off to the east, weak ridging aloft will slide across the
region late WED into THU, with low level return flow resulting in
moderating temperatures. The warm up will be short lived, however,
as increasing cloud cover ahead of and the passage of a strong
cold front FRI afternoon bring it to a quick end. Guidance has
come into better agreement with this system, depicting a wetter
frontal passage and colder temperatures in its wake. Continuing
the trend from the day shift yesterday, PoPs FRI and FRI night
were increased to high-end chance, and additional increases are
possible in subsequent forecasts. Conversely, temperatures over
the weekend were again lowered, and further downward adjustments
are possible.

Return flow early next week yields warming once again in this yo-
yo of a pattern.

13

&&

.MARINE...
Moderate to strong offshore flow will begin early this morning
and continue through Tuesday night. High pressure will further
build over the area allowing for diminishing winds on Wednesday.
The approach of a cold front late in the week will bring a return
to onshore flow. Friday night, this front will move through the
coastal waters and moderate to strong offshore flow is forecast
in its wake.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
North winds sustained near 15 mph with gusts around 20mph along
with low RH values (20 to 30 percent) will yield an elevated fire
danger risk today, though it is moderated to some degree by recent
rains and generally moist non-fine fuels per the USFS.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  72  40  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
LCH  74  48  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
LFT  73  45  69  48 /   0   0   0   0
BPT  74  46  72  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ450-452-455-
     470-472-475.

     Small Craft Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for
     GMZ430-432-435.

&&

$$

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