Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 252038
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
338 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...

A TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TO THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY
BEFORE THE TROUGH AXIS FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

INITIALLY...A ELONGATED AREA OF INCREASED VORTICITY STRETCHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY. HIGH PW VALUES OF AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND FAVORABLE LAPSE
RATES OF AROUND 7C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR CONTINUED TO CONVECTION
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
WANE A BIT DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOWER CAPE VALUES.

HEADING INTO TOMORROW...ANOTHER SURGE OF INCREASED VORTICITY AND
OMEGA CURRENTLY OVER TEXAS WILL EJECT INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL BE THE MAIN AXIS OF THE PARENT
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WITH AMPLE
FORCING IN PLACE ALOFT...AND A SURGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE
TRANSLATING ALONG WITH THE TROUGH...EXPECT TO SEE NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAY. THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION WILL
BE LESS OF A CONCERN. HOWEVER...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY
WINDS TO AROUND 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE A
CONCERN WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW. THE HIGHEST PW VALUES
WILL PEAK AT AROUND 2 INCHES TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND
SOME LOCALIZED STREET FLOODING ISSUES COULD DEVELOP. THE
CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH THE TREND
OF HIGHER POPS TRANSLATING EAST TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI COAST BY
DAYBREAK ON WEDNESDAY.

THE PARENT TROUGH WILL HAVE LIFTED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY...BUT A LINGERING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS AND SOME
INCREASED OMEGA WILL LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE LOWER ON WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
POPS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN CAPE VALUES PEAK
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND PW VALUES REMAIN HIGH AT 1.8 INCHES. EXPECT
TO SEE SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON THAT COULD
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...

HEADING INTO THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORKWEEK AND UPCOMING
WEEKEND...SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA.
PW VALUES WILL FALL FROM AROUND 1.7 INCHES ON THURSDAY TO 1.5
INCHES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY
DIRTY RIDGE...IN THAT AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA AND THE MID- LEVEL CAP WILL REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK.
THUS...THE RISK OF SCATTERED DIURNALLY FORCED CONVECTION WILL
EXIST EACH DAY ONCE THE CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE MIDDLE 80S
IS ACHIEVED. WITH THIS IN MIND...HAVE CHANCE POPS OF 30 TO 50
PERCENT IN THE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON. POPS DROP TO 10 TO 20
PERCENT IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING
WANES AND CAPE VALUES FALL FROM AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG TO UNDER 500
J/KG OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY SUMMERLIKE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...

MOST TERMINALS VFR...WITH A FEW SITES REPORTING OCCASIONAL CEILINGS
AROUND FL025. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA
AND CARRYING VCTS WITH SHORT TERM AMENDMENTS AS APPROPRIATE. MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE NEAR SUNSET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. COULD SEE SOME MVFR CEILINGS AROUND
SUNRISE...WITH SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED TO BEGIN PERCOLATING BY MID-
MORNING. HI-RES ARW WOULD INDICATE THAT WE COULD ACTUALLY HAVE
CONVECTION IN THE AREA AROUND 09Z TUESDAY...ALTHOUGH OTHER SOLUTIONS
KEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. WILL MONITOR THIS FOR 00Z
TAF PACKAGE. 35

&&

.MARINE...

A FAIRLY STRONG AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL
LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THESE EXERCISE CAUTION WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP SEAS ELEVATED
AT BETWEEN 3 AND 5 FEET IN THE OPEN GULF WATERS. MORE PROTECTED
AREAS WILL SEE WAVES OF 2 TO 4 FEET THROUGH TOMORROW. AS THE
TROUGH LIFTS OUT ON WEDNESDAY...AND THE SURFACE HIGH GAINS
STRENGTH OVER THE GULF...THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL FALL BACK TO AROUND
10 KNOTS OR LESS. SEAS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE BACK TO 3 FEET OR LESS.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...

DSS CODE...GREEN.
DEPLOYED...NONE.
ACTIVATION...NONE.
ACTIVITIES...MONITORING CONVECTION.

DECISION SUPPORT SERVICES (DSS) CODE LEGEND
GREEN  = NO WEATHER IMPACTS THAT REQUIRE ACTION
BLUE   = LONG FUSED WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY IN EFFECT OR HIGH
         VISIBILITY EVENT
YELLOW = HEIGHTENED IMPACTS WITH SHORT FUSED
         WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORY ISSUANCES; RADAR SUPPORT
ORANGE = HIGH IMPACTS - SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK SEVERE; NEARBY
         TROPICAL EVENTS; HAZMAT OR OTHER LARGE EPISODES
RED    = FULL ENGAGEMENT FOR MODERATE RISK SVR AND/OR DIRECT
         TROPICAL THREATS; EVENTS OF NATIONAL SIGNIFICANCE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  71  84  70  87 /  50  70  60  60
BTR  73  85  71  87 /  60  70  60  60
ASD  73  85  72  86 /  50  70  60  60
MSY  75  86  74  86 /  50  70  60  60
GPT  74  84  74  84 /  50  70  70  60
PQL  72  84  71  85 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

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