Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA
FXUS64 KLIX 232104
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
404 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016
Once again only small adjustments made to the forecast with this
package. Generally isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day, with the best chances Wednesday and Thursday as some
deeper moisture moves through the area and mid/upper ridging
begins to move away from the area. Temperatures will continue to
be near or slightly above normal.
Going into Friday and the weekend, some slightly drier air works
its way back into the area and this should bring rain chances down
into the 10 to 20 percent range for most of the area.
Beyond the weekend, the forecast begins to depend on what happens
with the swirl of clouds currently known as invest 99L. Models
continue to struggle with the handling of this system, as they are
apt to do before a surface low pressure center develops. 12z
solutions show anything from an open wave to a strong hurricane
with locations similarly varied. Seeing as any kind of local
impact is on the very tail end of the forecast period and there is
plenty of time to iron out the details as the system develops (or
not), have continued to carry a general blend of available
guidance at this time which results in scattered convection with
slightly warmer than normal temperatures.
Expect VFR conditions to prevail over the forecast period. There
is a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Have
not put VCTS in TAFs yet as the coverage may not be as scattered
as previous days. Some light patchy fog may develop over a few TAF
sites Wednesday morning but it should mix out soon after sunrise.
A weak cold frontal boundary will remain stalled north of the
coastal waters, and will continue to dissipate through tomorrow.
Expect winds to remain generally 10 knots or less through tomorrow
as well. By Thursday easterly flow should be set in, with some
strengthening into the 10 to 15 knot range. Waves should be 2 feet
or less through Wednesday with some building during the latter
part of the week.
DSS code: Blue
Activities: Flood recovery support
Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 74 92 75 92 / 20 50 20 50
BTR 75 94 75 91 / 20 40 20 60
ASD 74 95 75 93 / 20 40 20 40
MSY 77 91 77 90 / 20 40 20 40
GPT 76 92 76 92 / 20 40 20 40
PQL 74 93 74 92 / 10 50 20 30
Rest of Discussion...95/DM