Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA

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FXUS64 KLIX 302048
AFDLIX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans LA
348 PM CDT MON MAY 30 2016

.Discussion...
Not much change in the forecast this afternoon. High pressure
still in place over the area. Afternoon showers and storms have
developed over the forecast area today as we had a relatively low
convective temperature this afternoon so storms were easy to fire
along the lake and seabreezes this afternoon. We can expect more
of the same over the next few days. Again we climb into the upper
80s and lower 90s for Tuesday. Our convective temperature Tuesday
looks to be in the 87 to 89 degree range so if we hit that mark in
temperature the atmosphere will be more readily able to produce
storms. Any afternoon storms will have the potential to produce
heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail. Rain chances and coverage
goes up the latter half of the week and into the weekend as a cold
front approaches the area. Looking at the model guidance it looks
as if a southern stream shortwave approaches the area with the
front on Thursday. This will help shower and storm development and
it will take northern stream energy to help sweep everything out
of the area. That relief does not come until at least Sunday. So
with that in mind will carry 40 to 60 percent pops for Friday
through Sunday. As long as that boundary is in place there will be
chances of showers and storms especially during the daytime hours.
13/MH

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected outside of seabreeze induced tsra/shra
coverage this evening, which should dissipate shortly after 02z.
downburst gust potential 30-35 kt prior to 00z. similar situation
appears to be on tap for tuesday with convection igniting on trigger
temperature in the upper 80s and lower 90s along gulf and lake
breeze boundary interactions. 24/RR

&&

.MARINE...
Weak surface high pressure over the north gulf to maintain light
winds and low seas for much of the week. 24/RR

&&

.DECISION SUPPORT...
DSS code: Green.
Deployed: None.
Activation: None.
Activities: None.

Decision Support Services (DSS) Code Legend
Green  = No weather impacts that require action.
Blue   = Long-fused watch, warning, or advisory in effect or
         high visibility event.
Yellow = Heightened impacts with short-fused watch, warning
         or advisory issuances; radar support.
Orange = High Impacts; Slight to Moderate risk severe; nearby
         tropical events; HazMat or other large episodes.
Red    = Full engagement for Moderate risk of severe and/or
         direct tropical threats; Events of National Significance.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  68  93  69  92 /  30  20  20  20
BTR  69  92  69  91 /  30  20  20  20
ASD  71  92  71  91 /  30  20  20  10
MSY  72  91  73  91 /  30  20  20  10
GPT  72  91  73  90 /  30  20  20  10
PQL  71  91  72  90 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.LIX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
LA...None.
GM...None.
MS...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$



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