Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY
FXUS63 KLMK 302046
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
446 PM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016
Issued at 445 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016
Updated the point and click forecast for the showers ongoing over
our south. Coverage is fairly isolated. No zone update needed, as
these should be gone by sunset.
.SHORT TERM (Now through Wednesday Night)...
Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016
The ridge axis remains in place today bringing another day of hot
weather. Most areas are expected to remain dry this afternoon.
However, a few showers have developed around the Lake Cumberland
region and could become thunderstorms briefly. The other chance for
a few showers and storms this evening will be across portions of
southern IN as precipitation over central IL moves in. However, this
activity should be waning as it approaches and storms will likely be
dissipating through the evening.
We will finally begin to see a shift in the pattern tomorrow as a
trough begins to dig into the upper midwest. A cold front will push
through the lower Ohio Valley Wednesday bringing with it scattered
showers and storms. These storms should wane during the evening
hours, but will keep a slight chance for rain across south central
KY through the night.
Temperatures could be a bit tricky on Wednesday as they may depend
on how widespread precipitation becomes. Right now it looks like
coverage will be scattered enough that most will make it into the
mid to upper 80s. For tomorrow night, the cooler air will start to
filter in, but the much drier air will lag the front a bit. Lows
tomorrow night look to be in the 60s with the coolest temperatures
in southern IN.
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
Issued at 236 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016
The anticipated cooler temperatures will really take hold Thursday
into Friday as the upper level trough digs into the northeastern
CONUS and high pressure noses in from the north. Dewpoints should
fall through the day on Thursday as the drier air works its way in.
By Friday morning, dewpoints will be in the mid to upper 50s. A few
showers or storms may remain across the Lake Cumberland region on
Thursday morning, but should move out by the afternoon. Highs on
Thursday and Friday will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lows
Friday and Saturday mornings will drop into the upper 50s to
Surface high pressure will remain in place through the weekend into
next week. Upper level ridging will slowly start to build back in.
Dewpoints will rise again, but only be back into the lower to mid
60s by early next week. Highs will warm back into the mid to upper
80s by the beginning of the next work week.
.AVIATION (18Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 125 PM EDT Tue Aug 30 2016
VFR TAFs are expected as upper level ridging remains in control of
the region. There is a signal for light fog at BWG in MOS guidance,
but will only go with 6sm br since no rainfall is expected today and
sfc moisture levels were too low for any fog yesterday morning. The
next TAF concern will be tomorrow after 18Z when a cold front brings
showers/storms to the region.