Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Louisville, KY

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FXUS63 KLMK 140933
AFDLMK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
533 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

...Forecast Update...
Issued 532 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

The precipitation across southern Indiana this morning has become
more widespread light to moderate rain this morning, as opposed to
discrete cells. Made some changes to pops in this area to reflect
the more widespread rain. With this type of precipitation, flooding
problems are looking less likely across southern Indiana this
morning. Other than pops, just minor adjustments were made to the
grids.

.SHORT TERM (Now through Tuesday)...
Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon July 14 2014

The deep upper low will continue to drop southeastward towards the
Great Lakes region through Tuesday morning before starting to lift
back to the northeast through the day Tuesday. At the surface a
weakening front stretches across central Kentucky early this
morning. The stronger cold front remains back across northern
Illinois. This front will head southward towards the forecast area
today and is expected to move through late today into the overnight
hours.

Early this morning, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
continue to form along the weakening frontal boundary. A disturbance
aloft is helping to enhance this activity. Mesoscale models are in
fairly decent agreement this morning that this activity will
continue to develop across southern Indiana and north central
Kentucky for the next few hours. It is then expected to begin to
sink south and east across central Kentucky through the morning and
possibly in to the early afternoon hours. The main threat this
morning with these storms will be the potential for some training of
storms leading to ponding of water or possibly localized minor
flooding. We are still seeing some higher winds in some of the
activity over central Kentucky as well so gusty winds of 40-45 mph
may be possible at times as well.

As the morning storms sink southward it looks like southern IN and
north central KY could see a break in precip for a period of time
today. There is some uncertainty regarding the evolution/development
of storms this afternoon and evening as the cold front nears.
Synoptically there will be better forcing than yesterday. However,
depending on how long the storms linger this morning and how much
convective debris inhibits insolation, instability may be limited
this afternoon. If we do become unstable a few severe storms will be
possible with damaging wind gusts and possibly large hail.
Regardless, think that coverage of storms this afternoon and evening
will be less than this morning so have gone with scattered coverage
across the area. Precipitation should come to an end overnight as
the front moves through, with just a few showers or storms
potentially lingering across far east central KY into Tuesday
morning.

High temperatures this afternoon are a bit of a challenge as the
aforementioned clouds may limit heating. Will go with highs in the
mid to upper 80s for now. Lows tonight will drop back into the 60s.
Much cooler and drier air will push in tomorrow. High temperatures
will top out in the mid to upper 70s, some 10-12 degrees below
normal for this time of year.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Used mostly a blended forecast between previous forecast and new set
of models coming in, given more of an eye to radar early this
morning. First half of the period looks quiet with below normal
temperatures. GFS has become more aggressive with a late week low
pressure system moving up the mid MS river valley. The timing would
lead to better rain chances across our region Friday and departing
Saturday, but some residual moisture and warming temperatures back
to near seasonal levels will also lead to seasonal rain chances by
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Update)...
Issued at 111 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2014

Showers and storms will continue along a boundary that is stalled
across central Kentucky overnight. These storms have are currently
in the vicinity of LEX and SDF. A weak upper wave is expected to
enhance the storm activity over the next couple of hours. This will
allow them to continue to form across north central KY. Therefore
SDF and LEX will see thunderstorms with reduced visibilities and
gusty winds off an on for much of the night. This activity will
slowly sink southward through the morning hours and should move out
during the morning hours. As the showers and storms sink southward
they will begin to affect BWG. BWG looks to see storms from around
sunrise through the morning hours.

These storms will move out of the area this afternoon. The actual
cold front will move through the region tonight. However, with the
stabilized airmass think that there will not be many storms so will
keep precip out of the forecast for tonight. With the frontal
passage, winds will shift to northwesterly towards the end of the
SDF TAF period.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

$$

Update.........EER
Short Term.....EER
Long Term......RJS
Aviation.......EER




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