Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA
FXUS66 KLOX 250601
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1001 PM PST Fri Feb 24 2017
Dry and cool conditions will continue through Saturday. A couple
of weak weather systems are forecast to move into the area with
cool temperatures and a chance of rain and mountain snow Saturday
night through Monday. High pressure will bring clearing skies and
gradually warmer temperatures to the area Tuesday through
Wednesday, with above normal temperatures expected Thursday and
Latest fog product imagery indicated clear skies across the
forecast area this evening. Today`s highs were up 3-6 degrees for
the most part from yesterday. That being said, high temps were
still 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. Coast and
valleys were around the upper 50s to mid 60s, while interior
valleys and Antelope Valley only made it into the lower to mid
50s. No changes to the forecast expected through tomorrow. With
low temps expected to lower to around 35-36 at Ojai, there will be
no plans of issuing a frost advisory.
Synoptically, a couple of upper level disturbances will move
across the forecast area over the next couple days. The first
on Saturday as a 544 DM closed low will skirt the NoCal coast
just west of San Francisco and quickly push south and open to a
quick moving trough over SoCal by early Sunday morning. High to
mid level clouds will be on the increase starting tomorrow
afternoon and evening when there will be the possibility of
some sprinkles across the area. Some low level moisture will
develop as well late Saturday even int early Sunday morning. There
is a decent plume of mid level moisture with some limited lift
that should bring increasing light rain across SBA/VTU/LA counties
Sunday morning, and possibly across the southern portion of SLO
county. This will be a weak impulse that will pretty much bring no
more than a tenth of an inch of rainfall Sunday morning. Much of
the lift associated with this first impulse will be out of the
area by Sunday afternoon. However, there will be plenty of low
level lingering moisture which could bring additional light rain
across LA County Sunday afternoon. More of a nuisance than
A second impulse will approach from the west late Sunday
afternoon or early evening. The NAM-WRF shows some decent lift
across LA county with low level cyclonic flow. Once again, not
expecting much rainfall with this second wave, as the bulk of this
second will bring most of the rainfall for areas S of LA County.
However, there will be enough cyclonic flow and lift to cause some
light rain to develop. People going into Hollywood for the
Oscars, should be prepared for light rain, especially during the
evening hours. The GFS and EC models are not picking up on as much
precip for Sunday evening. But at the least, expect some form of
light rain across LA County and possibly Ventura County Sunday
night. At this time, still looks like a high POP and low QPF
forecast with most areas receiving under a quarter inch. Probably
less for areas N of Point Conception through Monday morning.
Monday looks dry except for possibly some lingering light precip
in southeastern LA County and in the mountains and interior SLO
County. Temperatures still on the cool side with highs mostly in
the mid 50s to low 60s for coast/valleys.
One more concern over the weekend will be potential low snow
levels. For late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, there
is the potential for snow levels to briefly fall to between 3000
and 4000 feet across interior mountains, which could impact the
Grapevine with some light snow showers. Snow levels are then
expected to rise to between 4500 and 5500 feet on Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night. The resort levels could see 1 to 3
inches of snow over the weekend,
Another weak long wave trough will swing through the West Coast
Tuesday but little to no impacts locally. Heights will start
rising through the end of the week as high pressure aloft develops
over the eastern Pacific. There`s also a hint of some light to
possibly moderate offshore flow late next week that will bring
some additional warming to the area. If the trends revert back to
a somewhat stronger offshore event like the GFS showed a couple
days ago we could be looking at some 80s returning to the area,
but right now it looks like a solid stretch of 70s starting
Wednesday and lasting into next weekend.
At 2345Z at KLAX... There was no notable inversion.
Overall... High confidence in the 00z TAFs. VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the forecast period across the region.
KLAX... High confidence in the 00z TAF. CAVU conditions will
prevail throughout the 24-Hour forecast period. East winds are
expected 25/09z through 25/19z but will remain below 6 kts.
KBUR... High confidence in the 00z TAF. VFR conditions will
prevail throughout the 24-Hour forecast period.
Winds across the central and southern outer waters will continue
to diminish to below advisory levels this evening. There will
continue to be local gusts to 25 knots through midnight. The
winds in that region may become locally gusty Saturday afternoon
and evening as well and there is a twenty percent chance that the
winds could become strong enough for a SCA to be issued.
Otherwise no hazards are expected across the coastal waters
through the weekend.
.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(MON-FRI)
No significant hazards expected.