Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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000
FXUS66 KLOX 250044
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
444 PM PST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...

There will be a chance of showers into early this evening. The
morning temperatures should stay below normal through early next
week...with afternoon temperatures in a warming trend. Then gusty
offshore winds from Friday and over the weekend will bring fair
skies and above normal afternoon temperatures into early next
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-FRI)

The weak low pressure center off the central coast continues to
slowly churn southward and looks to remain offshore as it passes
the service area today. There is quite a bit of cloud development
across the region today including across the coastal waters with
enhancement over the mountains and southern coastal waters. There
has been only light precipitation at most so far but the chance
of scattered showers continues into the evening hours. The best
instability arrives this afternoon over portions of Los Angeles
and Ventura Counties and especially over the mountains. CAPE
values are in the 700s over the San Gabriel Mountains with -3 to
-4 LIs... pretty good for SoCal... and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are possible there through early evening.

Overnight temperatures will drop to the coldest of the week
tonight as broad portions of the region drop below 35 degrees and
some of the coldest locations in Ventura and Los Angeles Counties
drop below 30 degrees. Frost/Freeze Advisories are likely for some
of the lower elevation inland valleys tonight and they may also be
needed tomorrow night as well. Cooler overnight temperatures in
general will remain across the region through Thursday or Friday
morning.

After the lingering low off the coast finally departs the
region tonight... a ridge will slowly build in from the west. The
ridge will not get a strong foothold across Southern California
until at least Thursday then following a short period of northerly
flow a weak to moderate northeast offshore flow develops. This
will bring warmer temperatures by Friday.

.LONG TERM...(SAT-TUE)

A stronger ridge is in place over Southern California by Saturday
and good offshore flow will help to warm area temperatures to near
normal by Sunday. Gradients of four to six mb may be enough to
bring advisory level winds to typical Santa Ana locations on
Saturday and Sunday. Skies will remain mostly clear and no
precipitation is expected through at least Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0037Z.

At 00Z, there was no marine layer inversion at KLAX.

VFR conditions with a chance of MVFR conditions near any showers
will occur through the period. There is a chance of LIFR to IFR
conditions at KPRB between 10Z and 16Z. There is a slight chance
of LIFR conditions in ground fog at all coastal and valley
terminals between 08Z and 16Z.

KLAX...There Is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions near any
showers. There is a 10 percent chance of LIFR conditions in ground
fog between 08Z and 16Z. Any east winds developing after 04Z
should remain below 7 knots.

KBUR...THERE Is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions near any
showers. There is a 10 percent chance of LIFR conditions in ground
fog between 08Z and 16Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/200 PM.

Winds have dropped below SCA speeds in most areas so the current
Small Craft Advisory only applies to the height of the seas.
The Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas remains in effect
through at least late tonight.

After weaker winds today into early Wednesday...the wind speeds
will begin an upward trend Wednesday afternoon through Friday with
Small Craft Advisories again becoming likely in the outer waters
Thursday afternoon and in the inner waters south of Point
Conception by Friday morning associated with offshore winds.

Another large northwest swell will cause hazardous seas in the
outer coastal waters Thursday and continue into early Friday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Surf Advisory in effect until 4 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 34-35. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Frost Advisory in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 34-35-44>46-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening for
      zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Wednesday for
      zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas in effect until 3 AM
      PST Wednesday for zones 645-670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(FRI-TUE)

Advisory level Santa Ana winds are possible across portions of
Ventura and Los Angeles counties from late Friday night through
Sunday.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Kj
AVIATION...Hall
MARINE...Sweet
SYNOPSIS...STU

weather.gov/losangeles


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