Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS66 KLOX 261630
AFDLOX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
930 AM PDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Despite increasing clouds there will be a few degrees of warming
today. A weak trough on Monday may bring a few light showers over
San Luis Obispo and Santa Barbara counties as well as the north
slopes. Strong gusty north winds will begin Monday night and
persist into Tuesday. Weak ridging aloft will bring warm and dry
conditions for the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TDY-TUE)

Satellite imgary showing low level clouds lingering across
portions of the LA basin and Central Coast/Santa Ynez Valley
this morning, with higher level clouds advancing from the
northwest. By this afternoon and evening, mid and high level
clouds are expected to increase across the forecast area. Mild
temperature readings today across the region, with warmest valleys
climbing into the lower 70s. Weakening cold front still expected
to bring a slight chance of showers to San Luis Obipso County
tonight, with a better chance of showers across the interior
mountains of SBA/Ventura/LA counties late tonight into Monday.

Strong wind event still on track for Monday evening into Tuesday
morning. High wind watches already posted for the mountains,
SBA South Coast, and Santa Clarita Valley where damaging wind
gusts of 60 mph or greater will be possible. Leading up to this
strong wind event will be increasing west to northwest winds on
Monday afternoon, where wind advisories will likely be needed for
the above mentioned locations, as well as the Central Coast and
Antelope Valley (with gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range). By Monday
night (during the peak of the event), the flow will turn more
northerly, with wind advisories likely being needed for the San
Fernando Valley, Ventura Valleys, Santa Monica Mountains, and LA
Coast.

*** From previous discussion ***

The winds will decrease rather quickly and by late morning
Tuesday there will only be moderate winds. Aside from the
winds...it will be sunny as a strong 576 DM ridge pushes in. Max
temps will jump 4 to 8 degrees and most of the coasts and Vlys
will have above normal temps.

.LONG TERM...(WED-SAT)

Both the EC and GFS that Wednesday will be the warmest day of the
next 7 as the ridge peaks with 580 DM hgts. The north flow will
switch to the NE and there will be sub advisory canyon winds in
the morning. max temps will be 8 to 12 degrees above normal with
almost all of the vly max temps in the 80s and the non beach
coastal areas in the mid 70s to lower 80s.

An inside slider will zip down the NV/CA state line Thursday it
will bring onshore flow and cooler conditions as well as setting
the stage for another north wind event Thursday night and Friday
morning.

Both mdls forecast a ridge for Friday its just the GFS forecasts a
very large one and the EC a small one. For now split the
difference and gave the forecast max temps in between the sort of
warm EC fcst and the hot GFS solution.

Mdls then go off on the own different ways for Saturday with the
GFS continuing the hot ridge solution and the EC bringing in a
much cooler inside slider. For now shaded forecast towards the
warmer GFS thinking.

&&

.AVIATION...26/1615Z...

At 1600Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 4500 feet. The
top of the inversion was 6000 feet with a temperature of 9 degrees
Celsius.

Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF package. Current CIG and
VSBY restrictions are expected to dissipate within the next couple
of hours with VFR conditions anticipated through this evening.
Overnight, will bring in a MVFR cloud deck to all coastal/valley
TAF sites, but with low confidence as there is a 50% chance that
conditions could remain VFR.

KLAX...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
VFR conditions developing this afternoon. For tonight, low
confidence in development of MVFR CIGs (as there is a 50% chance
conditions will remain VFR).

KBUR...Overall, moderate confidence in 18Z TAF. High confidence in
VFR conditions developing this afternoon. For tonight, low
confidence in development of MVFR CIGs (as there is a 50% chance
conditions will remain VFR).

&&

.MARINE...26/800 AM...

For the Outer Waters, high confidence in current forecast.
Northwest winds will increase to Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
levels today and remain at SCA levels through Monday morning. By
Monday afternoon and continuing through Tuesday evening, winds
will increase to Gale force levels. After a slight lull to SCA
levels on Wednesday, winds will likely increase to Gale levels
again on Thursday.

For the Inner Waters, moderate confidence in current forecast. For
the waters north of Point Sal, winds are expected to remain just
below SCA levels this afternoon/evening (30% chance of SCA level
gusts). By Monday afternoon, winds are expected to increase to SCA
levels and remain at SCA levels in the afternoon/evening hours
through Thursday (with a 30% chance of Gale force winds
developing). For the waters south of Point Conception, high
confidence in winds increasing to SCA levels this afternoon and
evening across the western half of the Santa Barbara Channel, but
remaining below SCA levels elsewhere. For Monday and Tuesday,
winds will increase with a good chance of SCA level winds across
most of the waters with a chance of SCA level winds continuing
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...High Wind Watch in effect from Monday evening through Tuesday
      morning for zones 39-52>54-88. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 2 PM this afternoon to 11
      AM PDT Monday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Monday for
      zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Monday morning through Tuesday
      afternoon for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...(TUE-SAT)
Strong and gusty north winds will affect the area into early
Tuesday, with the potential for damaging wind gusts especially in
the mountains. Travel will be impacted by the winds over a large
area.

Another round of strong and gusty northwest to north winds will
be possible Thu night in the mountains and along the Santa Barbara
County south coast, with travel being affected by the winds.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Gomberg/Rorke
AVIATION...RAT
MARINE...RAT
SYNOPSIS...Sweet

weather.gov/losangeles


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.