Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Los Angeles, CA

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FXUS66 KLOX 282059
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW PERSIST. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST BY LATE
SATURDAY...BRINGING INCREASING ONSHORE FLOW...A RETURN OF OVERNIGHT
COASTAL CLOUDS AND A COOLING TREND...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (SAT-MON)... ONE RECORD SO FAR (93 AT CAMARILLO BREAKING
RECORD OF 86 SET IN 2009). DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES WAS CLOSE...REACHING
97 AT ONE POINT AND JUST A COUPLE DEGREES FROM THEIR RECORD OF 99.
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE WEAKLY ONSHORE...AND WITH OUR WARMER
WATER TEMPS IT`S BEEN DIFFICULT FOR A SEA BREEZE TO GET GOING. SO
FAR A GOOD DEAL OF READINGS OVER 100 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA TO MAKE
THIS THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK.

RELIEF IS ON THE WAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH WHICH HAS BEEN THE
CULPRIT OF OUR HOT WEATHER FINALLY SHIFTING EAST INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS BY TOMORROW MORNING. A FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHICH
HAS BEEN POISED OFF THE WEST COAST SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROUGH
AXIS IS ON THE WEST COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALL HELP TO COOL
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE THE COOL DOWN SATURDAY
OF AROUND 5 DEGREES SOUTH AND 5 TO 10 DEGREES NORTH...HIGHS WILL
STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. IT`S NOT UNTIL SUNDAY THAT HIGHS ARE BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE INCREASING ONSHORE
FLOW WILL BRING OVERNIGHT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG INTO THE CENTRAL COAST
AND THE IMMEDIATE LA COUNTY COAST STARTING TONIGHT. FOG COULD BE
DENSE UP NORTH GIVEN A MARINE LAYER OF AROUND 600 FT.

THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BRING INCREASING NORTH AND NORTHEAST WINDS
TONIGHT ALONG THE SBA SOUTH COAST AND NEARBY CANYONS...WINDS TONIGHT
SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN THE LOCALIZED GUSTS TO 40 REPORTED LAST
NIGHT...AND A LITTLE STRONGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THESE
WINDS WILL MAINLY BE FOCUSED ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SBA SOUTH
COAST BUT ALSO BLEEDING INTO THE MONTECITO AREA AT TIMES.

COOLER BY AT LEAST ANOTHER SEVERAL DEGREES MONDAY AS THE MARINE
LAYER AND ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AND INCREASE. OVERNIGHT
STRATUS WILL ALSO BE MORE EXTENSIVE...PUSHING INTO THE COASTAL
VALLEYS. SHOULD BE ENOUGH NORTHERLY FLOW TO KEEP THE SBA COAST
CLEAR.

.LONG TERM (TUE-FRI)... THE WEST COAST TROUGH STICKS AROUND NEXT
WEEK FOR PERSISTENT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERNIGHT STRATUS
INTO THE VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...28/1800Z

MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
GRADUALLY APPROACH. UPPER LEVEL LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME MODERATE SOUTHWEST AFTER 29/12Z WHILE MID LEVEL LIGHT WEST
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE AREA. MARINE CAPPING INVERSION BASE WAS ON
THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THE BASE WILL DIFFER BY PLUS .7KFT
SATURDAY MORNING AND THE CLOUD FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED
OVER THE BIGHT AND OVERCAST ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST. WEAK ONSHORE
PRESSURE GRADIENT THROUGH 29/02Z AND AFTER 29/20Z OTHERWISE WEAK
NORTHERLY GRADIENT.

MARINE LAYER AT LAX AT 1600Z IS 0 FEET DEEP AND THE INVERSION TOP IS
AT 1725 FEET WITH A TEMP OF 31.9 DEGREES C.

KLAX...LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
29/12Z. CHANCE CIGS 003 VSBY 3SM BR BETWEEN 29/12-29/16Z AND VSBY
5SM HZ 29/16-29/18Z.

KBUR...LIKELY CURRENT SKY/VSBY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST.

VIRTUALLY CERTAIN - 95-100%
VERY LIKELY       - 80-95%
LIKELY            - 60-80%
CHANCE            - 30-60%
VERY UNLIKELY     - 20% OR LESS

&&

.MARINE...28/200 PM.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LIKELY
RETURN OVER AN AREA FROM POINT ARGUELLO TO THE SANTA CRUZ BASIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AND THERE IS A CHANCE
OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS WILL EXIST IN THE VICINITY OF POINT
CONCEPTION SATURDAY EVENING. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY EXIST FROM
PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO THE SANTA CRUZ BASIN SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL GALE FORCE GUSTS.


&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JACKSON
AVIATION/MARINE...30
SYNOPSIS...SETO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES



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