Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 200135 AAA
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated for Aviation
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
830 PM CDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.Aviation...
Other than a lot of high clouds over Arkansas, mostly VFR conditions
are expected through Friday.

A few patches of fog could form early Friday, with brief MVFR
conditions in places.

Winds overnight will be light and variable. Winds on Friday will be
southeast at 6 to 14 mph, with some gusts from 16 to 20 mph. The
gusts will be mainly over northern/western sections of the state in
the afternoon. (46)
&&

.Short Term...Tonight thru Saturday...
A surface high pressure system has moved to the east, and has
allowed a return southerly flow to set up. Temperature and moisture
levels are slowly increasing, and lows tonight should be a bit
warmer than last night. Highs tomorrow and Saturday will be fairly
close to the same as today, albeit some areas may be a few
degrees cooler.

Aloft, an upper level ridge of high pressure will start to break
down as a trof approaches from the west. A few upper level
disturbances moving thru the flow will result in some chances for
thunderstorms, starting in the western part of the state tomorrow
night, with increasing chances statewide on Saturday. The highest
rain chances will not occur until the extended term, however.

&&

.Long Term...Saturday Night through Thursday
Well-advertised frontal boundary will be moving through the region
late Saturday night and Sunday, with fairly widespread coverage of
showers and thunderstorms. A few strong storms will be possible,
with hail and winds the primary concern. However, what will be
acting against it will be the time of day, as the main show in
Arkansas will be well after we`ve lost daytime heating. Also, while
not excessive, rainfall of an inch or so appears to be a good bet,
especially over western Arkansas.

Behind the front, rain chances will come to an end late Sunday, as
an upper trough moves into the mid south region and deepens into a
cutoff low. Behind the low, nearly meridional upper flow will set
up, with colder air filtering into the region. Highs by Wednesday
and Thursday will mostly remain in the 60s, with lows in the 30s and
40s. Much more welcome this time of year, wouldn`t you say?

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     52  77  58  78 /   0   0  10  20
Camden AR         53  79  63  82 /   0  10  20  30
Harrison AR       52  76  60  76 /   0   0  20  20
Hot Springs AR    53  77  62  80 /   0  10  20  30
Little Rock   AR  53  79  61  79 /   0   0  10  20
Monticello AR     54  80  62  80 /   0   0  10  30
Mount Ida AR      52  77  62  79 /   0  10  20  30
Mountain Home AR  51  77  59  77 /   0   0  10  20
Newport AR        52  78  58  79 /   0   0  10  20
Pine Bluff AR     52  79  61  80 /   0   0  10  20
Russellville AR   51  76  61  78 /   0  10  20  30
Searcy AR         50  78  58  78 /   0   0  10  20
Stuttgart AR      53  79  60  80 /   0   0  10  20
&&

.LZK Watches/Warnings/Advisories...NONE.
&&

$$

Short Term...53 / Long Term...57


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