Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 021817 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
115 PM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.AVIATION...
LOW CLOUDS/SOME MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO MOST LOCATIONS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TOWARD DAWN WEDNESDAY...
PATCHY FOG/SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS WILL RETURN...AND THIS SHOULD MEET
MVFR CRITERIA IN SOME AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH TONIGHT AT 3 TO 7 MPH. (46)
&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 315 AM CDT TUE JUN 2 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS IN THIS FORECAST CYCLE STILL SOME CHANCES OF
CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY IN LOCATION AND TIMING.
TEMPERATURES WARM TO NORMAL TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES. RIVER
FLOODING REMAINS A CONCERN ACROSS ARKANSAS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION WITH A A BIT COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE 50S TO
LOWER 60S. 00Z KLZK SOUNDING HAD LOWER PRECIP WATER VALUE OF 1.03
INCHES WITH A SE LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHILE NW UPPER FLOW. ALOFT THE
UPPER CUT OFF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE TN VALLEY WHILE THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WAS BUILDING INTO THE PLAINS...WHILE SOME
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY WAS SEEN IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE UPPER
RIDGE AND MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE AND WEAKENING. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED IF ANY SHORT WAVE SETS UP AND MOVES SE INTO AR
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. OTHERWISE SOME PATCHY FOG MAY FORM IN
LOCALIZED AREAS THAT ARE VERY MOIST AND NORMAL PRONE AREAS.

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

AN OVERALL DRY FORECAST WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES AS THE UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. MODELS DO INDICATED SOME POTENTIAL FOR SHORT WAVE ENERGY
MOVING ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AND POSSIBLY REACHING AR LATE
WEDNESDAY TO THURSDAY...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL STILL KEEP
THE FORECAST DRY. MODELS SHOW A BETTER CHANCE OF SHORT WAVE
ENERGY POSSIBLY REACHING AR ON FRIDAY...AND AS A POTENTIAL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD TOWARD AR. SLIGHT CHANCES ARE IN THE NORTH
FRIDAY...THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCES MOVE A BIT MORE SOUTH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THESE FEATURES HAVING TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FOR CONVECTION CHANCES AND BEING SEVERAL DAYS OUT.
OTHERWISE TEMPS WILL START COOLER THAN NORMAL TODAY...THEN WARM TO
ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST THROUGH THE LONG
TERM...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE MID SOUTH. GUIDANCE SHOWS
SYSTEMS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT STILL IN QUESTION...HAVE LEFT ONLY SMALL RAIN CHANCES IN
THE NORTH AND EAST. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM THROUGH THE EXTENDED...
BUT TEMPERED BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM GUIDANCE DUE TO THE
MOISTURE REMAINING FROM RECENT RAINFALL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     77  61  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
CAMDEN AR         82  63  85  66 /  10  10  10  10
HARRISON AR       77  60  80  64 /  10  10  10  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    81  63  83  66 /  10  10  10  10
LITTLE ROCK   AR  80  63  82  66 /  10  10  10  10
MONTICELLO AR     81  62  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNT IDA AR      80  63  83  66 /  10  10  10  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  78  60  81  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWPORT AR        77  62  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
PINE BLUFF AR     80  62  83  65 /  10  10  10  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   80  62  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
SEARCY AR         78  62  81  65 /  10  10  10  10
STUTTGART AR      79  62  82  65 /  10  10  10  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$





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