Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 301949
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
249 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERNS THIS FORECAST CYCLE ARE FIRST PERIOD CONVECTION AND
HEAT...THEN A DRIER AND A BIT MILDER PERIOD INTO THE WEEKEND.
ALTHOUGH AN UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP FOR SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION AS
TEMPS WARM LATE INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SAGGED TO FAR SOUTHERN AR...WITH A NE
SURFACE FLOW BRINGING A BIT MILDER AND MUCH DRIER AIRMASS INTO
AR. DEW POINT TEMPS WERE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE NORTH...TO THE
60S TO MID 70S CENTRAL AND LOWER TO MID 70S SOUTH. THIS HAS ALSO
LOWERED TEMPS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE WARMEST OVER FAR
SOUTHERN AR...AND A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS SET UP OVER WESTERN TO SW AR NEAR THE BOUNDARY AND
THE HOTTEST AND MOST UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS LOCATED. DID UPDATE
FORECAST TO SHOW THIS TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN THE FAR WEST TO SW WHILE A CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE AS YOU GO EAST...THIS EVENING ALONG CURRENT
CONVECTION TRENDS. THEN A SLIGHT OVERNIGHT IN THE FAR WEST. ON
FRIDAY THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FILTER THE MILDER
AND DRIER AIR IN TO MOST OF AR...WHILE A LOW CHANCE OF ANY
CONVECTION OVER FAR WESTERN TO SW AR. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND
NORMAL VALUES. THE OVERALL DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH TEMPS SLOWLY WARMING. ALTHOUGH...THE UPPER PATTERN
DOES CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES MORE
WEST...AND A UPPER NW FLOW SETS UP IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PLAINS. MODELS ARE NOT CONSISTENT WITH LOCATION AND AMOUNT OF
UPPER SHORT WAVE ENERGY...SO RAIN CHANCES HAVE BEEN KEPT LOW AT
THIS TIME. THINGS COULD CHANGE WITH LATER FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A DRY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE 5H RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH DOMINATE ON MONDAY.  THE UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS WEST TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE AREA TUE NIGHT AND
EARLY WED. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY NIGHT AND A CHANCE OF STORMS ON WED. AS THE
UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...THE
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THESE DISTURBANCES. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE IN
GEMERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT NOT IN THE TIMING OF AND
INTENSITY OF THE DISTURBANCES SO CONFIDENCE IN EXACTLY WHEN OR HOW
MUCH SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT THE AREA IS LOW.

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP SHOW OVER THE ROCKIES TEMPS
WILL TREND DOWN DUE TO LOWER 5H HEIGHTS...WEAK COLD FRONT...AND SOME
INCREASED CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED RAIN CHANCES.
WARMEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPS MODERATING A TAD
ON WED AND THU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     67  92  68  93 /  10   0   0  10
CAMDEN AR         71  94  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       66  90  66  90 /  20  10   0  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    72  93  69  96 /  30  10   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  71  93  71  95 /  20   0   0  10
MONTICELLO AR     72  93  70  96 /  30   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      70  92  67  94 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  66  91  67  91 /  10   0   0  10
NEWPORT AR        68  92  68  92 /  10   0   0  10
PINE BLUFF AR     70  93  70  95 /  20   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   70  93  68  95 /  20  10   0  10
SEARCY AR         69  93  68  94 /  10   0   0  10
STUTTGART AR      71  92  70  93 /  20   0   0  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BRADLEY-CALHOUN-
CLARK-CLEVELAND-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-LINCOLN-OUACHITA-PIKE-POLK.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...59 / LONG TERM...32



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