Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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FXUS64 KLZK 281609 AAB
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1005 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

OVERALL FORECAST IS ON TRACK. WILL SEE SUNNY SKIES TODAY WITH MORE
MODERATE TEMPS AS A SOUTH WIND RETURNS TO AR. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF TO THE SE OF AR...AND A SOUTH WIND WILL BE
ELEVATED TODAY AT 10 TO 20 MPH. MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW
TODAY WITH DEW POINT TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER TO UPPER 30S...WITH
SOME MODERATION LATER IN THE DAY. THE UPPER TROUGH HAS PUSHED TO THE
EASTERN U.S. COAST AND UPPER NW FLOW IS SET UP OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
AT THIS TIME ONLY SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS ARE SEEN WELL UP STREAM.
LATE MORNING UPDATE WILL ONLY FINE TUNE A FEW ELEMENTS...MAINLY
TEMPS AND WINDS...AND NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES EXPECTED WITH ON GOING
FORECAST. (59)

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 547 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WINDS ACROSS NORTHERN SITES TODAY. AS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP
OVERNIGHT...MVFR STRATUS IS EXPECTED. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
SITES AFTER 29/00Z...BUT WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ACROSS THE NORTH
AND WEST.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 415 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

CLEAR AND CHILLY CONDS PREVAILED ACRS THE FA DURG THE OVERNIGHT HRS.
SFC RDG WAS SITUATED TO THE E OF AR THIS MRNG...WITH A LGT SELY WIND
NOTED AT MOST LOCATIONS. CURRENT TEMPS RANGED FM THE UPR 20S TO THE
MID 30S.

MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MRNG RMN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FCST TRENDS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS...THEN TEND TO DIGRESS A BIT LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE UPR LVL PATTERN WL TRANSITION FM NWLY TO A
GENERAL ZONAL FLOW HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND...ALLOWING FOR WARMER
CONDS TO RETURN. TEMPS ARE IN TRACK TO CLIMB TO ABV NORMAL LVLS BY
SAT AND SUN.

ALONG WITH THE WARMING TREND...THE INCRSG SLY WINDS WL ALSO BRING
GULF MOISTURE NWD INTO AR. MODELS CONT TO INDC THAT LOW CLOUDS WL
FORM SAT AND SUN MRNG/S WHICH COULD HAMPER THE WARMING TREND A BIT
EACH AFTN DUE TO THE ADDED CLOUD COVER. WITH THIS IN MIND...DID
TREND TOWARD COOLER NAM MOS TEMPS FOR HIGHS. WL ALSO CONT TO MENTION
SMALL CHCS OF LGT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE DURG THE MRNG HRS.

HEADING INTO SUN NGT AND MON...A NRN STREAM UPR TROF IS FCST TO DROP
INTO THE NRN PLAINS STATES AND HEAD EWD. THIS WL EVENTUALLY ALLOW AN
ASSOCD SLOW MOVG CDFNT TO DROP SWD INTO NRN AR SUN AND INTO CNTRL
AND SRN AR MON/MON NGT.

DUE TO THE SHALLOW NATURE OF THE COLDER AIRMASS ASSOCD WITH THE
FNT...THE MODELS CONT TO HAVE TIMING ISSUES WITH IT/S SWD
PROGRESSION THRU AR. THIS IS A COMMON OCCURRENCE...ESP WHEN DEALING
WITH THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NRN AND WRN AR. THE GFS...AND NOW THE
ECMWF...ARE FASTER WITH THE SWD MOVEMENT OF THE FROPA...WITH THE NAM
AND GEM SLOWER. WL CONT TO USE A BLEND OF THE SOLUTIONS. BASED ON
THIS...THE BNDRY WL ENTER NRN AR LATE SUN EVENING...WORK INTO CNTRL
AR ARND SUNRISE MON MRNG AND OUT OF SRN AR LATE MON AFTN/EARLY MON
EVENING.

STILL LOOKING AT POST-FNTL LGT RAIN DVLPG SUN NGT AND MON ACRS THE
FA. TEMPS OVR PARTS OF NRN AR WL DROP INTO THE LOWER 30S LATE SUN
NGT AND MON MRNG. FCST TEMP PROFILES CONT TO INDC FZRA/FZDZ WL BE
POSSIBLE OVR PARTS OF NRN AR BASED ON SFC TEMP FCST. QPF AMTS AT
THIS TIME WL BE LGT AND WL CONT TO ADDRESS THIS IN THE HWO.

MOST AREAS WL SEE STEADY OR SLOLY FALLING TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON MON.
LEFT SOME LINGERING SLGT CHC POPS IN FOR CNTRL AND ERN AR MON NGT.
THERE WL BE A SMALL WINDOW FOR A LTL LGT FZRA/FZDZ OVR PARTS OF NERN
AR LATE BEFORE DRIER AIR ARRIVES.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST
TUESDAY...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN A WARMING TREND. MAIN
QUESTION IN THE EXTENDED IS TIMING OF NEXT SYSTEM...AS THE EUROPEAN
BRINGS MOISTURE BACK TO THE REGION FASTER THAN THE GFS. USED A BLEND
OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW...AND HAVE ONLY SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR SEASONABLE READINGS
FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...58







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