Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Little Rock, AR

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000
FXUS64 KLZK 010746
AFDLZK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
246 AM CDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY

TEMPS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE UPPER 20S TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST
AREAS...THOUGH SOME AREAS HAVE SEEN WINDS STAY UP JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP SOME LOW 40S EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MANY LOCATIONS SHOULD
STILL SEE TEMPS DROP TO BELOW OR AROUND FREEZING BY SUNRISE THIS SAT
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION BEING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN AND SERN
CWA. FREEZE WARNING REMAINS FOR ALL BUT THOSE SRN AND SERN COUNTIES
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING.

A FAIRLY COOL DAY WILL BE SEEN THIS SAT...BUT WINDS WILL NOT BE NEAR
AS BREEZY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
CWA. THIS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN...EXPECT COOL CONDITIONS ONCE
AGAIN...WITH MANY LOCATION SEEING TEMPS AROUND AND JUST BELOW
FREEZING BY SUNRISE SUN. HAVE UPGRADED THE FREEZE WATCH TO A FREEZE
WARNING FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION FOR TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS
ACROSS THE WRN AND NWRN CWA WHERE WINDS MAY PICK BACK UP ENOUGH FROM
THE SOUTH TO KEEP TEMPS JUST ABOVE FREEZING SUN MORNING. WILL KEEP
THE FREEZE WATCH FOR NOW IN THESE AREAS...AND IF IT BECOMES MORE
LIKELY WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING SUN MORNING IN THE WRN
AND NWRN CWA...MAY END UP CANCELING THE FREEZE WATCH AS A RESULT
LATER TODAY.

SRLY FLOW WILL RETURN FOR SUN AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST
OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL HOLD
OFF UNTIL MON INTO TUE AS THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES SW OVER THE STATE.
A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE STATE EARLY ON TUE...DROPPING
SOUTH INTO THE STATE BY LATE TUE INTO THE LONG TERM PERIOD. HAVE
POPS INCREASING MON NIGHT...WITH BEST POPS EXPECTED ON TUE INTO TUE
NIGHT AS THE FRONT SLOWS OVER THE STATE. EXPECT MAINLY SHRA...WITH
SOME TSRA ALSO POSSIBLE. WITH THE SLOWING PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND WITH FLOW ALOFT BECOMING MORE PARALLEL TO THE
FRONT...THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS OF
THE CWA BY LATE IN THE PERIOD. OVERALL PRECIP ACCUMULATIONS RIGHT
NOW ARE ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 2 INCHES AT THIS TIME FOR TUE. PRECIP
CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE EXTENDED FORECAST STARTS WITH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING TO SE
AR...WITH CHANCES OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY...AS
WELL AS LIGHT RAIN BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME LIGHT PRECIP HANGS ON
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY...WHILE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SECOND SURGE OF COLD
AIR FILTERS INTO AR...PUSHING ANY RAIN TO SOUTH AR. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHILE A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN U.S. MODELS DO HAVE A CUT OFF
UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER SW U.S. OR FAR SW TX...SO
SOME SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL SPREAD EASTWARD IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM
AT SOME POINT...MAINLY STAYING OVER THE GULF STATES. BUT UNCERTAINTY
LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST DOES EXIST AS THE EURO MOVES THIS CUT
OFF LOW PRESSURE EAST AND THIS WOULD BRING SOME POSSIBLE CONVECTION
TO AR...WHILE GFS MOVES MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL SOUTH OF AR AT THIS
TIME. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF CONVECTION ON FRIDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPERATURES OVERALL IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE
AROUND NORMAL VALUES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BATESVILLE AR     52  30  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
CAMDEN AR         55  32  61  42 /   0   0   0   0
HARRISON AR       51  34  57  41 /   0   0   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    54  32  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
LITTLE ROCK   AR  53  32  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     53  32  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      54  31  59  41 /   0   0   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  51  33  56  40 /   0   0   0   0
NEWPORT AR        52  30  56  39 /   0   0   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     53  32  59  42 /   0   0   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   54  30  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
SEARCY AR         53  30  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
STUTTGART AR      52  31  58  40 /   0   0   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR BAXTER-BOONE-
BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-FAULKNER-
FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-LONOKE-MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-
PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-
STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM CDT TO 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR ARKANSAS-
BAXTER-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-CONWAY-DALLAS-
DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-INDEPENDENCE-
IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-LINCOLN-LONOKE-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-
OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SEARCY-
SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-WOODRUFF-YELL.


FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR BOONE-
JOHNSON-LOGAN-MARION-NEWTON-SCOTT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62 / LONG TERM...59





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