Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 231043
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
343 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.DISCUSSION...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE SOUTH ALONG THE
COAST INTO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA TODAY. NORMALLY THIS WOULD BE
ENOUGH TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE BUT SINCE IT IS MOVING ACROSS
THIS MORNING..WE LACK THE HEATING JUST YET. BY THIS AFTERNOON THE
SHORT WAVE WILL HAVE MOVED INTO THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY WITH
NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY AREA OF
INSTABILITY IN OUR FORECAST AREA IS ALONG THE WARNER AND PART OF
SOUTHERN MODOC COUNTY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF OUR FORECAST
AREA WILL SEE A WARMING TREND AND MORE SUNSHINE. ON SUNDAY HIGHS
IN THE ROGUE VALLEY COULD WARM CLOSE TO 80 DEGREES WHICH IS ABOUT
5 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS. THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM CRATER LAKE EAST AS WELL AS THE MEDICINE LAKE AREA OF
SISKIYOU COUNTY.

A LOW PRESSURE WILL DROP INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE ON MONDAY. SO
FAR BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF KEEP THIS LOW NORTH OF THE COLUMBIA
RIVER AS IT TRACKS EAST INTO IDAHO. WE MAY SEE A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN OREGON WHICH WOULD INCREASE WINDS A
BIT AT HIGHER ELEVATION AND ACROSS THE EAST SIDE BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARM FOR MOST OF NEXT WEEK WITH AFTERNOON CUMULUS BUILD
UPS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERALL THIS MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WARM AND
DRY. /FB

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 23/06Z TAF CYCLE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING OVER SOUTHERN LAKE AND MODOC
COUNTIES AND FURTHER EASTWARD. LATER TONIGHT, MOST AREAS WILL AGAIN
BECOME MVFR, THOUGH INCREASING NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE LEE OF
THE CASCADES AT KLMT SHOULD KEEP THAT AREA MOSTLY VFR THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ANOTHER EXCEPTION WILL BE COASTAL
AREAS NORTH OF CAPE BLANCO INLAND TO THE COAST RANGE CREST WHERE IFR
WILL DEVELOP. VISIBILITY THERE WILL BE REDUCED AROUND SUNRISE DUE TO
DRIZZLE. COASTAL MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURRED. EXPECT SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY LATE MORNING ON SATURDAY ACROSS THE WEST SIDE.
OVERNIGHT TERRAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL DIMINISH BY NOON SATURDAY. JBL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 830 PM PDT, FRIDAY 22 MAY 2015..HIGH PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND WILL CONTINUE NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
FRESH NORTHWEST SWELL INTO NEXT WEEK AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEK.
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY BORDERLINE AT SMALL CRAFT LEVELS BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN THIS EVENING SOUTH OF GOLD BEACH, THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD NORTHWARD TO COVER MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE THEN LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS ARE THEN INDICATED TO WEAKEN AT MID-WEEK BUT
WITH SEAS REMAINING MODERATE AS A NORTHWEST SWELL INCREASES.
BPN/DW/JBL

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WINDS FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM
     PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ356-376.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 11 PM PDT MONDAY
     FOR PZZ350-356-370-376.

$$

FJB/FJB/JBL



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