Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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701
FXUS62 KMHX 211452
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
952 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak cool front will move through the region today. A strong
area of low pressure and frontal system will impact the area
Sunday through Monday. High pressure will then build into the
area from the south through mid week. A cold front will move
through the area Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 950 AM Sat...Widespread fog and low stratus clouds cover
most of eastern NC late this morning. The clouds and fog will be
slow to dissipate due to 1) The low winter sun angle and 2)
Higher level cloudiness overspreading the area in advance of an
approaching mid level shortwave. Will let the Dense Fog Advisory
for land expire at 15Z as visibilities are starting to improve
above 1 mile, but extend over the waters until 18Z as area web
cams still indicate dense fog over coastal areas. May need to
adjust current high temps in the lower to middle 60s down a few
degrees with little opportunity for sunshine this afternoon.

Late this afternoon the aforementioned shortwave will begin to move
NE across the area accompanied by an area of widespread showers
ahead of a weak surface cold front. Still expect showers to
increase across the area from SW to NE especially after 21Z with
likely PoPs most areas by 00z. Will still hang on to a mention
of a slight chance of thunderstorms due to forcing from the
shortwave.

Tonight...The batch of showers and embedded thunder will be
quickly traversing E NC early this evening and already moving
offshore by around midnight. Behind the exiting front and short
wave, winds veer around to the WSW and subsident flow with
drying regime expected before next round of heavier activity.
Have therefore lowered pops to just slight chance after midnight
tonight. Have added patchy fog to grids late tonight, though
less confidence on development which will be dependent on how
much lingering cloud cover there is and if winds become light
enough for fog formation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Saturday...
The main focus with this update will be on the increasing severe
weather threat for Sunday and Sunday night. SPC has expanded the
slight risk area to include our entire forecast area
Sunday/Sunday night, with the enhanced area as close by as
Wilmington. With severe weather likely through the night
Sunday, we continue to remind people how important it is to have
multiple ways to receive warnings.

The models are coming into good agreement that after a possible
lull Sunday morning, an area of showers with embedded
thunderstorms will move through late Sunday morning into the
first part of the afternoon. Instability is just beginning to
creep up as this point and some of the higher resolution
guidance is suggesting short lived, linear convective lines may
race through our area. Cape values approach 500 j/kg, with 0-1
km shear values of 25+ kts and 0-6 km shear values of 50+ knots.
This time period may not be as active as later Sunday evening
but with a warm front moving through the area, low level shear
may be locally enhanced with this boundary nearby.

As the warm front lifts north of our area may see another lull
later Sunday roughly from after 18Z Sunday through 0Z Monday.
After that time the highest risk for more widespread severe
weather is expected as low pressure tracks through west central
North Carolina, and a potential squall line forms ahead of a
cold front that will move into our area by daybreak. Model cape
values decrease Sunday night from their peak at 21Z Sunday, but
impressive dynamics ahead and along the front along with warmer
air surging in off the ocean may offset the "lower" instability.
0-1 KM Shear values increase to 40 kts while 0-6 bulk shear
increases to 70+ kts! With these impressive wind fields both
damaging winds and isolated tornadoes will be the main threats
Sunday and Sunday night. While the focus above was on the
science, we want to remind people with the severe weather threat
lasting into the night Sunday, people should have multiple ways
to receive possible warnings. Severe weather events at night
are particularly dangerous.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...

The cold front mentioned above will sweep through early Monday.
thunderstorms are possible first thing Monday especially the
Outer Banks. Otherwise a punch of drier air from the southwest
will dramatically lower our chances for rain Monday. High
pressure will build in through mid week with a return to drier
weather as we remain above normal temp wise, with highs near or
exceeding 60. The faster trend by the EURO and Canadian for our
next front continues with the GFS now leaning that way. We
continued the best threat for rain late in the week on Thursday,
with drier weather by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Saturday/...
As of 7 AM Saturday...Very poor flying conditions as all
terminals socked in with vsbys LIFR category. Generally expect
widespread LIFR/IFR conditions through late morning with vsbys
returning to MVFR or VFR. However, cigs look to remain in the
IFR range through the day today, then worsen to LIFR tonight
once again. Rain showers will move in late this afternoon and
traverse E NC this evening, coming to an end by midnight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Widespread sub-VFR restrictions likely
through Sunday night all terminals in scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Brief IFR conditions can`t be ruled out in
periods of heavier rain/associated thunderstorms. Strong winds
off the surface with a quick change in wind direction may
produce LLWS or at the very least, bumpy flying conditions
during the period. VFR returns Monday and lasts through
Wednesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 950 AM Sat...Main marine concern today is widespread
dense fog occurring late this morning. Appears the fog will be
slow to dissipate so will extend the DFA until 18Z. NE winds
continue early this morning 5-10 kts and will veer around to E
and then SE through today but remain light. For tonight, winds
inc across the southern/central waters to 15-25 kts with seas
inc to 6+ feet, and have therefore issued a SCA for these zones
beginning late tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 300 AM Saturday...Building seas will remain high through
early next week with small craft conditions expected the entire
time. Seas of 3 to 6 feet early Sunday build to 7 to 11 feet
late Sunday night and remain high through Monday. Seas gradually
subside beginning Tuesday but still remain above 6 feet.

Southeast winds 10 to 15 kts Sunday, increase to 20 to 25 late
Sunday night into Monday. Winds veer into the west-northwest
Monday night but remain above 20 kts through early Tuesday.
Winds subside by Wednesday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ029-
     044>047-079>081-090>095-098-103-104.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ130-
     131-135>137-150-152-154-156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 3 AM EST Wednesday
     for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 10 PM EST Tuesday for
     AMZ156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/EH/TL
NEAR TERM...JME/TL
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...EH
AVIATION...EH/TL
MARINE...JME/EH/TL



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