Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 251637
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1237 PM EDT Tue Apr 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A complex low pressure system will continue to impact Eastern
North Carolina today then move northeast away from the region
tonight. High pressure in the central Atlantic will build in
Wednesday through the weekend bringing above normal temperatures
and below normal rain chances. A cold front will approach from
the west Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 1215 PM Tue...The upper low is centered over SE North
Carolina around mid day and will continue to lift NE across the
region through the afternoon while becoming vertically stacked.
Latest radar imagery shows widespread moderate to heavy
rainfall pushing across the eastern portion of the CWA with the
heaviest rainfall across the OBX. Additional scattered showers
will likely develop across the region this afternoon with modest
instability present and as mid levels lapse rates increasing as
the upper low moves overhead and could see small hail in
stronger storms with cold temps aloft. Low level thickness
values and 850mb temps support highs in the low/mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 255 AM Tue...Stacked low will lift off to the NNE
tonight, with shower chances tapering off. Think winds will stay
up overnight to inhibit fog development, but could see
increasing low stratus develop late. Mild overnight with lows in
the upper 50s/low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Surface high pres over the Atlantic combined
with ridging aloft will lead to warm and mainly dry weather
through the weekend. Increasingly moist airmass may lead to some
isold aftn and evening TSRA along the sea breeze inland from
time to time but most locations will see no rain. Highs on Wed
will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s then warm to 85 to 90 inland
and upper 70s to lower 80s beaches Thu through Mon. Lows will
be mostly in the 60s with some lower 70s closer to the coast. A
cold front will approach from the W Mon but looks like bulk of
the day will remain rain free.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 715 AM Tue...Widespread sub-VFR conditions currently
across the terminals ranging from LIFR to VFR, with rain
gradually tapering off this morning. Should see improving
conditions late morning becoming VFR. Scattered showers/iso
tstms late morning into the early evening. Forecast soundings
and guidance show low stratus developing late tonight and early
Wed morning, with the potential for IFR ceilings.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/...
As of 230 AM Tue...VFR should dominate this period with warm SW
flow around offshore high pres. Isold late day tsra poss but
just a very small chc will see any sub VFR impact a terminal.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Tonight/...
As of 1215 AM Tue...Winds have diminished to around 15 kt or
less, but dangerous seas will continue. Have allowed the SCA to
expire across the rivers and sounds but continue across the
coastal waters with seas around 8-12 ft. SW winds continue
around 5-15 kt through tonight, perhaps slightly stronger across
eastern portions of the southern and central waters near the
warmer Gulf Stream waters. Seas will continue to slowly subside
to 5-10 feet by late afternoon, and 4-7 feet overnight.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/...
As of 230 AM Tue...Offshore high pres will lead to a prolonged
period of mainly SW flow this period. Speeds will avg 10 to 15
kts but may occasionally reach 15 to 20 kts espcly during the
aftn and early evening. Lingering swells will keep seas in the 5
to 7 foot range Wed then shld be 3 to 5 ft Thu into Sat.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 1215 PM Tue...The widespread heavy precip has ended
across eastern NC with the flash flood threat diminished but
could still scattered showers this afternoon. Heaviest rain
early this afternoon is along the OBX but earlier rainfall
totals weren`t as high as to the west. The main hydrology focus
will shift to river flooding as widespread 5-8 inches of
rainfall fell across the upper portions of the basin. The Tar
River in Greenville and Contentnea Creek in Hookerton are
currently forecast to crest above major flood stage, while the
Neuse River in Kinston is expected to crest above moderate flood
stage, and the NE Cape Fear River in Chinquapin is expected to
crest above this weekend.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 1215 AM Tue...High surf advisory continues for beaches
north of Cape Lookout through today with surf heights 7 to 10
feet. Minor ocean overwash will be possible as well given large
waves/periods. High threat of rip currents at all beaches
today.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
     High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ152-154.
     Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Wednesday for AMZ156-158.
     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF/CQD
NEAR TERM...SK/CQD
SHORT TERM...CQD
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CQD
MARINE...RF/SK/CQD
HYDROLOGY...MHX
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MHX



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