Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 190314
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1014 PM EST Sun Feb 18 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the mid-Atlantic coast tonight. The
high will continue off the coast through mid week. A weakening
cold front will move into the area late week then dissipate or
lift north next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 PM Sunday...High clouds continue to stream across the
region from the west and observations from our south starting to
show some lower clouds developing around Wilmington, with light
showers in northeast South Carolina. The latest model time
sections show deepening moisture overnight in response to low-
level flow veering from ENE to more SE. A few isolated showers
may develop further north in the weak isentropic lift/warm
advection, but think a better chance will exist on Monday. No
major changes to the overnight forecast with lows generally in
the lower to mid 40s, with temperatures becoming steadier toward
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
As of 250 pm Sun...The high will continue to move further
offshore with low-level theta-E ridge in place. Deep moisture
remains, mainly below 700 mb so will have chance PoPs. WAA
continues in southerly flow, with highs in the mid to upper 60s
forecast despite cloud cover.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM Sun...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be
the dominant feature through late week, supporting temperatures
well above normal. A slow moving cold front will approach the
region from the west mid to late week, possibly moving through
the region late week.

Monday night through Wed...The high will cont off the coast
through Wed as upr rdg builds off the coast. Mainly dry Tue
thru Wed Night with area in warm sector with little to no
forcing, though an isolated shower will be possible along the
coast. Very mild this period with highs in the low to upper 60s
Mon, increasing to the 75 to 80 dgr range Tue and Wed. Beaches
as usual will be cooler with mainly 60s.

Thu through Sun...Still some model differences late week into
next weekend handling the next system. Continued to lean towards
ECMWF/Canadian/WPC with a slower and weaker cold front sagging
into the region late Thu then washing out Fri. Isolated showers
possible Thu through Sat, and kept small pops, with front over
region but moisture and forcing look weak with little in the way
of rainfall expected. Highs Thu will again reach 75 to 80
inland with warm sector conditions. Bit cooler Fri and Sat with
front S of region...however hgts/thicknesses remain high so mild
temps cont with upr 60s/lower 70s inland to lower/mid 60s cst.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /through 00Z Tuesday/...
As of 630 PM Sunday...VFR conditions should prevail until around
midnight as patchy high cloudiness continues to stream across
the region. After midnight as low-level flow veers from ENE to
more SE and weak isentropic lift increase, expect MVFR/IFR
ceilings to develop after 09z. Some isolated light showers may
occur overnight, but anticipate a better chance of showers for
Monday during the day. Expect lower ceilings to continue before
improving by late-afternoon Monday as model time sections show
deep moisture below 850 mb from midnight tonight through much of
the day on Monday.

Long Term /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 AM Sun...Moisture will increase on the backside of
the surface ridge as it moves off the mid- Atlantic coast with
increasing clouds. WAA/weak isentropic lift will likely lead to
some patchy light showers late and cont with slight chc pops
inland. Low temps will drop into the lower to mid 40s by late
evening and will likely remain steady for the rest of the
overnight as clouds and WAA increase. VFR Monday night into
early Tuesday. VFR Tue through Thursday with high pres sfc and
aloft off the coast.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Mon/
As of 1010 PM Sunday...No changes to the marine forceast. Small
Craft Advisories will remain in effect until 6 AM for the
coastal waters south of Oregon Inlet as winds continue to gust
close to 25 knots at times with seas still hovering around 6
feet at a few of the offshore platforms. High pressure will
move offshore tonight as winds veer from E/NE around to SE/S by
Monday. Winds should be 15 knots or less on Monday with seas 2-4
feet.

Long Term /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 230 AM Sun...Strengthening high pressure offshore will be
the dominant feature through most of the period. S/SW winds 5-15
kt expected Mon night through Thu, with seas 2-4 ft. A slow moving
cold front will approach the waters from the west mid to late
week.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Monday for AMZ152-154-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/CTC/HSA
MARINE...RF/CTC/HSA



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