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000
FXUS62 KMHX 211023
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
623 AM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY AND CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 615 AM TUE...WEAK TRF ALOFT EASY TO SEE ON RDR WITH CELLS W OF
RDU MOVING SE AND ACTIVITY TO THE E LIFTING NE. THE WEAK UPR TRF
WILL DRIFT E TODAY AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. MDLS CONT TO SHOW AXIS OF DEEP
MOISTURE WITH PRECIP WTR AOA 1.75 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION. CONT
TREND OF HIGHER POPS INLAND TODAY WITH LOWER POPS NEAR CST AS INLAND
MOVING SEA BRZ WILL LEAD TO LESS ACTIVITY FOR THE BEACHES THIS AFTN.
MODEST INSTAB AND WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT SVR THREAT BUT SOME LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LIKELY.  SHLD HAVE ENOUGH SUN FOR HIGHS 80 TO 85
INLAND AND AROUND 80 BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM TUE...WITH LIMITED FORCING AND DIMINISHING INSTAB
EXPECT CONVECTION TO END QUICKLY THIS EVENING. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT HOWEVER DID ADD SLIGHT POP IMD CST LATER AS
MOST MDLS SHOW SOME LIGHT QPF DEVELOPING WITH THE MOIST SRLY FLOW.
LOWS WILL BE MAINLY 65 TO 70 ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE
WED/THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGE OFFSHORE
AND A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE MIDWESTERN STATES. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHANCE/ISOLATED POPS INLAND FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
WED. FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHERN COAST/COASTAL WATERS WED EVENING
THEN ALL OF EASTERN NC AS WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM
THE SW WITH GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ON QPF ALONG
AND EAST OF HWY 17. TEMPS WED AND WED NIGHT REMAIN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WED NIGHT ACTING TO
PUSH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN NC
FRI. SW FLOW PERSISTS THURS WITH PRECIP CHANCES REMAINING 30-40
PERCENT. TRENDED POPS DOWN FOR INLAND PORTIONS EARLY FRI AS
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST. TEMPS WILL BE NEAR CLIMO THURS AND FRI
WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX. RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT WITH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST...WINDS SHIFTING
NW THEN N AND WEAK CAA INITIATING ACROSS THE REGION.

THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH THROUGH NC/VA FRI NIGHT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SAT. WEAK
CAA WILL PERSIST SAT AND SUN WITH BROAD UPPER TROUGHING ALOFT AND
WEAK RIDGE AT THE SURFACE...YIELDING NE SURFACE FLOW OVER THE
AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S ALONG THE COAST TO MID/UPPER 70S
INLAND...BELOW CLIMO FOR LATE MAY. SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL ROTATE
ESE AROUND THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH MON AND INTERACT WITH A
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION MON.
HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS FEATURE MON. TEMPS REMAIN
MILD MON WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUE...PATCHY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG EARLY WITH LCL MVFR/IFR
MAINLY DEEP INLAND WHERE THERE IS ALSO A THREAT OF A SHRA. LATER
TODAY MAINLY VFR WITH BRIEF/LCL REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS IN SCT
CONVECTION. PRECIP SHLD END THIS EVENING WITH MAINLY VFR REST OF THE
NIGHT...HOWEVER AGAIN CANT RULE OUT SOME LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG OR
LOWER CIGS AS LOW LVLS REMAIN MOIST.

LONG TERM WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR TERMINALS WED AND
THURS AS EASTERN NC REMAINS IN MOIST SW FLOW. AVIATION CONDITIONS
COULD DETERIORATE TO MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR THURS NIGHT INTO FRI IN
LOWERED CEILINGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE
REGION FROM THE NW. RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED SAT AS THE FRONT PUSHES
WELL OFFSHORE AND WINDS SHIFT N.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 615 AM TUE...HIGH PRES OFFSHORE WILL MAINTAIN SSW WINDS AT
MAINLY 10 TO 15 KTS. MAY SEE A PERIOD OF 15 TO 20 KTS THIS AFTN AND
EVENING OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN WTRS. BUOYS SHOW SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 3
TO 4 FEET AND ARE EXPECTED TO STAY IN THAT RANGE THRU TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /WED THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM TUES...SW GRADIENT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NC COASTAL
WATERS WED THROUGH FRI BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL RANGE 10-20 KT WITH SEAS
MOSTLY 3-5 FT. THE GRADIENT PINCHES SLIGHTLY TIGHTER THURS
AFTERNOON AND MAY NEED AN SCA FOR SEAS OF 6-7 FT FOR THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN WATERS. SCAS LIKELY THURS NIGHT INTO FRI AS THE COLD
FRONT NEARS AND CROSSES THE WATERS...WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE TO 4-7 FT NEAR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS.
HAD ISSUES WITH LOCAL SWAN/NWPS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SO
MANUALLY ADJUSTED 00Z WAVEWATCH III FOR SEAS 1-2 FT HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS SAT ONCE CAA SURGE AND N TO NE
WINDS BEGIN IMPACTING THE REGION.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...RF
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...RF/DAG
MARINE...RF/DAG