Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 231315
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
915 AM EDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend into the area over the weekend.
Hurricane Maria is expected to track off the southeast coast
late this weekend and next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 915 AM Saturday...High pressure will continue to build
south over Eastern NC today. Patchy dense fog, which formed
earlier this morning will be dissipated by 10 AM, otherwise
sunny skies and very warm temperatures well into the 80s will
occur during the first official day of fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...Dry again tonight with high pressure still
in control of our weather. The gradient between high pressure to
our north and Maria off the SC coast will be a bit stronger
tonight. This should allow enough mixing to prevent as much fog
as we have experienced the past few nights. Lows again in the
60s inland to near 70 along the coast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...High pressure centered over the Great
Lakes will extend down into the Southeast through midweek, while
we continue to monitor Hurricane Maria. Increasing uncertainty
continues regarding the track of Maria as the latest models have
shifted westward. Eastern NC residents and interested parties
should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts from
NHC.

Sunday through Monday night...Surface high pressure and upper
ridge will continue to build in from the north early next week,
as the remnants of Jose weakens well off the NE coast. Pred dry
weather expected Sunday but could see some showers pushing
onshore as early as Monday as Maria lifts north off the
Southeast coast. Low level thickness values support above
normal temps with highs in the mid 80s inland to around 80 along
the coast. Overnight lows expected in the mid 60s coastal plain
to upper 60s/low 70s along the coast.

Tuesday through Friday...Hurricane Maria is currently forecast
to slowly lift north off the SE coast through mid week. Eventual
track will be determined by several factors including the
strength of the upper ridge and the timing of a shortwave trough
and attendant cold front expected to push across the mid-
Atlantic states mid to late week. It is still too soon to
determine specific impacts for Eastern NC, which will be very
dependent on the track/how close to the coast it gets.
Discouragingly, the 12z model guidance continues to shift the
track westward and have slowed the system down and may impact
the area through Thursday. Regardless of the exact track, rough
surf and dangerous rip currents are likely through much of next
week, as large long period southeast swells build. Gusty N/NW
winds, minor coastal flooding, and ocean overwash/erosion will
be also possible, with the greatest threat along the Outer
Banks. Continue slight chance to chance PoPs through mid week,
highest eastern sections. The next frontal system will approach
the area late week aiding to Maria pushes further ENE offshore.
Temps through the period, near to slightly above normal with
highs in the 80s and lows in the mid 60s/low 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 150 AM Saturday...Strong radiational cooling is expected
overnight with with mostly clear skies and light winds. This is
expected to result in areas of fog developing with conditions
going from MVFR to IFR through 09Z. Confidence not as high as
yesterday though due to very shallow low level moisture profiles
which would limit vertical extent of fog. To account for this
uncertainty included a tempo group for IFR most terminals. Fog
is expected to dissipate rapidly after 13Z today with VFR with
scattered high based afternoon Cumulus.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...VFR conditions will dominate through
Monday, though some early morning FG/BR and low stratus may
develop each night as a ridge of high pressure will be across
the region. Periods of sub-VFR possible Tuesday into
Wednesday with isolated to scattered showers pushing onshore as
Maria lifts toward the region.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Through Tonight/...
As of 915 AM Saturday...Hurricane swell will continue to impact
the NC waters through tonight. 5 to 7 ft seas are currently
being observed at the buoys and this will gradually build to 6
to 8 ft today and 7 to 10 ft overnight. Light winds today will
increase out of the northeast tonight to 10 to 20 kts, as the
gradient increases over the waters between high pressure to our
north and Maria well off the SE coast.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/...
As of 4 AM Saturday...High pressure centered over the Great
Lakes will build down into the southeast through the period,
while Hurricane Maria lifts north off the Southeast coast.
Increasing uncertainty continues regarding the track of
Hurricane Maria as it approaches the region as latest model
guidance continues a westward trend closer to the NC coast as
well as continues to slow it down. Mariners and interested
parties should continue to monitor the latest official forecasts
from NHC. SCA continue for all coastal waters through the
period.

N/NE winds 10-20 kt Sun then likely increasing to 15-25 kt Mon
and Tue as Maria lifts northward. At this time strongest winds
look like Tue and Wed. Long period southeast swell will continue
to gradually build through the period, peaking mid week. Have
capped seas at 15-18 ft for the waters next week, though could
end up being much higher if track shifts more westward. Still
too soon to determine specific impacts from Maria, but dangerous
seas expected and gusty N/NW winds will be possible. Rough surf
and dangerous rip currents are likely.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ095-
     098-103-104.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     154-156-158.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JME/EH
NEAR TERM...JME/EH
SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...EH/SK
MARINE...JME/EH/SK



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