Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 250349
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1049 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A
LOW PRESSURE AREA AND COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
MONDAY AND PASS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN THROUGH MID WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/...
AS OF 1045 PM SAT...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST MAINLY FOR
HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS...WHICH ARE TAKING A LITTLE LONGER TO
BEGIN DROPPING THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. CLEAR SKIES NOW PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT BECOMES ZONAL. CAA CONTINUES
BRINGING LIGHT WINDS WITH A DRY AIRMASS BUILDING IN SO FOG IS
NOT EXPECTED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 30S INLAND TO UPPER
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
AS OF 2 PM SAT...HIGH PRES BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY BRINGING
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES...THOUGH COULD SEE HIGH CLOUDS AT TIMES. LIGHT
WEST WINDS BECOME SOUTH LATE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AROUND
1320-1330M SUPPORTS HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WHICH MATCHES
WELL WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FAST MOVING POSITIVE TILT TROF DIVES SE THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENN
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN BECOMES NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES
THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON MONDAY. SOMEWHAT CLASSIC MILLER B TYPE SFC
PATTERN AS ASSOCD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FILLS AS IT APPROACHES THE
APPALACHIANS SUNDAY NIGHT THEN REFORMS OFF THE NC COAST ON MONDAY.
THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AS ENERGY TRANSFERS TO THE
COAST THROUGH MONDAY BUT LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHUD LIMIT PRECIP
COVERAGE SO KEEPING POPS AT SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE RANGE. THERMO
PROFILES INDICATE ANY PRECIP WILL FALL MAINLY AS RAIN, ESPECIALLY
AS SFC TEMPS WARM INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON MONDAY.

CHANCES FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE DEEP UPPER TROF/DEVELOPING UPPER CUTOFF
LOW PIVOTS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. MODEL VERTICAL TEMPERATURE
PROFILES INITIALLY SUPPORT RAIN BUT THEN AS CAA DEVELOPS MONDAY
NIGHT, INDICATE CHANCES WILL INCREASE FOR A MIX WITH AND THEN
POSSIBLE CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY TUESDAY MORNING. WRAPAROUND
MOISTURE/DEFORMATION ENHANCED BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIP MAY DEVELOP
AND CUD SEE A BRIEF BURST OF RAIN/SNOW MIXED OR SNOW SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR EARLY TUESDAY MORNING WITH NORTHERN AND COASTAL
AREAS THE MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR OCCURRENCE. NOT EXPECTING ANY
ACCUMULATION OF SNOW AT THIS POINT GIVEN THE WARM GROUND AND
EXPECTED BRIEF PRECIP DURATION, BUT SOMETHING FOR LATER SHIFTS TO
EVALUATE AS NEW MODEL COMES IN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

LINGERING SHOWERS OF RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHIFT OFF THE COAST TUESDAY
MORNING AS THE UPPER AND DEEPENING SFC LOWS MOVE TO THE NE.
CLEARING SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES WILL THEN HIGHLIGHT THE
MIDDLE WEEK FORECAST PERIOD. HIGH TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE 40S
BOTH TUE AND WED WITH LOWS TUE AND WED NIGHT WELL INTO THE 20S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TRANSIENT UPPER AND SFC RIDGING SHIFT OVER THE AREA FOR A MODEST
WARMING TREND WED NIGHT INTO THU. ANOTHER UPPER TROF HEADS THRU
THE EAST LATE IN THE WEEK BUT THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE SO WILL HAVE JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AT MOST FOR NOW ON FRIDAY. COOLER TEMPS WILL AGAIN ENSUE
GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 710 PM SAT...PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. BACK EDGE OF MVFR MID CLOUDS HAS
SHIFTED EAST OFF ALL TAF SITES AS OF 00Z THIS EVENING AND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WESTERLY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
WITH GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KT. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT THIS
EVENING...PREVENTING ANY OVERNIGHT FOG DEVELOPMENT.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A POTENT UPPER SYSTEM BUT
WITH LIMITED MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR INTERVALS SUNDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY NIGHT. MAINLY
CLEAR/DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TUESDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1045 PM SAT...LATEST SURFACE AND BUOY DATA INDICATE WNW WINDS
15-25 KT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT NEARSHORE AND 8-10 FT FARTHER OFFSHORE.
WINDS ACROSS THE PAMLICO SOUND HAVE FALLEN TO 10-20 KT OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS SO HAVE DROPPED THE SCA FOR THE PAMLICO SOUND WITH
THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. THE FRONT HAS PUSHED WELL OFFSHORE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CAA WILL BRING WEST WINDS
AROUND 15-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT THROUGH TONIGHT...STRONGEST
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. WEST WINDS START OUT AROUND 10-20 KT
SUNDAY MORNING...BUT DIMINISH RAPIDLY TO 10 KT OR LESS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BACK TO SOUTHERLY LATE AS HIGH PRES SHIFTS
OFFSHORE.

SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 5 TO 8 FT...EXCEPT UP TO 10 FT NEAR
DIAMOND SHOALS. EXPECT SEAS TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AND EXPECT TO DROP BELOW 6 FT BY SUN AFTERNOON. NWPS IS
SLOWER TO BRING SEAS DOWN AND WILL USE A BLEND OF WAVEWATCH III
AND NWPS.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST MONDAY AND THE ENSUING COLD
AIR SURGE WILL BUMP UP WINDS INTO STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
RANGES BEGINNING LATE MONDAY. NNW WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THRU
MIDWEEK AS LOW DEEPENS TO THE NORTHEAST AND REINFORCES THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE NC COAST. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH
AND BACK TO THE W/SW AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY.

SEAS WILL BUILD TO 4 TO 6 FT N MON EVENING THEN BUILD FURTHER TO
6 TO 9 FT TUE...HIGHEST CENTRAL AND NRN WATERS BEFORE GRADUALLY
SUBSIDING THRU THURSDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...SK/DAG
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC
AVIATION...BTC/DAG
MARINE...BTC/SK/DAG



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