Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 271101
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
701 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure off the coast of SC/GA this morning will
move northeast today, passing off the coast of NC tonight. A cold
front will gradually dissipate over the region Thursday into
Friday. An area of low pressure will linger over the Ohio Valley
Thursday into the weekend, then gradually lift out to the
northeast early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 7 am Tue...Models in good agreement in lifting an area of
low pressure off the SC/GA coast this morning to the northeast,
while cold front to the west will move little, if at all. Timing
and placement of rain chances today still look very good from
previous package so made no changes there. Forecast soundings show
instability is marginal at best, so kept mention of thunder at
slight chance. Cloud cover and northeast wind will keep temps
down. Highs will range from the upper 70s northern Outer Banks to
lower 80s southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM / WEDNESDAY THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
As of 3 am Tue...Surface low will pass by the coast tonight. Best
rain chances this evening at 40-50 percent. Tapered back just a
bit after midnight when the low moves off to the northeast. Lows
will range from the mid 60s coastal plain to lower 70s Outer
Banks.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Unsettled through Thu then a bit drier by the
weekend.

Wed through Thu...Weakening cold front will cont over the region
Wed and Thu as big upr low conts to the NW. Axis of good moisture
will remain over eastern NC leading to at least chc of shra and
poss a few tsra. Best chcs will be inland Wed and have pops just
below likely. Precip may become a bit more sct into Thu and have
lower chc pops area wide. Temps close to seasonal for late Sept
with highs 70s to lower 80s and lows 60s inland to around 70
beaches.

Fri through Mon...The upr low to the NW will slowly move NE into
the weekend as sfc front conts to dissipate. Drier mid lvl air
will spread in from the W Fri with slight chc of shra over ern
portions of the area. Not much change Sat into Mon with mdls
keeping bulk of moisture near cst and offshore so will cont slight
pop imd cst and dry inland. Highs will cont near seasonal lvls
with upr 70s to around 80.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 7 am Tue...VFR for the 4 terminals through the short term,
except sub-VFR in scattered showers. Heavy rain not expected, so
visibilities in showers will likely remain MVFR. Instability
marginal, so any thunder will be isolated. Surface winds will be
southeast around 5 knots today, and variable 5 knots or less
tonight.

Long Term /Wed through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Decent coverage of shra into Thu with poss some
isold trsa. The precip will lead to a few periods of sub VFR thru
Thu. Drier air will work in from the W Fri with decreasing chc of
shra and mainly VFR thru Sat...there will be threat of some late
night and early morning fog and stratus with light winds late week.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through tonight/
As of 7 am Tue...Low pressure off the coast of GA/SC this morning
will move northeast today and pass by the NC coast tonight. Wind
direction will gradually back from southeast today to east this
evening, then north late tonight as a result. Pressure gradient
remains loose, so winds forecast no higher than 10-15 knots. Seas
will average 2-4 feet across the coastal waters today. Tonight
some slightly higher seas of 3-5 feet forecast from Oregon Inlet
to Cape Lookout, with 2-4 feet elsewhere. Scattered showers
through the short term, with isolated thunder possible.

Long Term /Wed through Saturday/...
As of 3 AM Tue...Light mainly NNE winds in wake of low early Wed
quickly returns to light S or SE later in the day with weakening
cold front to the W. Predominately S to SW winds 15 kts or less Thu
into Fri as dissipating front drifts to the cst. Light winds Sat
with the front or whats left of it near cst. Seas thru the period
will be mainly 2 to 4 feet...could flirt with 5 ft at times far
outer waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...HSA
NEAR TERM...HSA
SHORT TERM...HSA
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...HSA/RF
MARINE...HSA/RF



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