Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 260228

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1028 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

High pressure will extend over the area from offshore through
early next week. A cold front will move through Wednesday. A
warm front will move through from the southwest Friday.


As of 1025 PM...Minor adjustments to the sky forecast, to
increase cloud cover overnight based on the latest trends. So
far this thicker deck of high clouds has not impacted temps too
much, with our hourly temp forecast on track. We do expect the
clouds to thin some overnight which will allow for lows to drop
back into the 50s. Dew points are a bit higher than 24 hours
ago, so patchy fog still looks possible inland.


As of 300 PM Saturday...Dampening upper trough will continue to
approach from west-southwest during the day but 850-500 mb layer
remains dry and non-supportive of convective activity. 12Z NAM12
and ECMWF are indicating some very light QPF over inland
sections around 18Z but appears overdone and will keep no POP
forecast for now. Cirrus and SCU expected to be more extensive
but enough heating for max temps mainly low-mid 70s.


As of 230 PM Sat...Above to near normal temperatures expected
through the period...with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms early in the week, then again late week.

Sunday night through Wednesday night...High pressure will
remain anchored off the southeast coast through Tuesday, as
frontal boundary slowly approaches from the west. Warm moist
S/SW flow expected across the region, and low level thickness
values support highs in the upper 60s/low 70s along the Outer
Banks, and low to upper 70s inland...could see some spots flirt
with 80 degrees. Overnight lows generally in the 50s. Isolated
convection possible inland Monday, with better precip chances
Tue as main front and trough move into the Mid-Atlantic and SE
US. Will continue chance pops Tue, tapering off Tue night.
Forecast soundings show MU CAPE values increasing to 1500-2000
J/kg Tue, with 0-6km shear 20-25kt. Still some uncertainty
regarding the timing of the frontal passage. The GFS is still
quite a bit faster than the ECMWF, pushing it through late Tue
night and early Wed morning, while the ECMWF is quite a bit
slower moving it through Wed and Wed evening. Will continue to
keep Wed dry with precip pushing offshore early. A few degrees
cooler Wed, with the developing northerly flow behind the front.
High pressure will build in from the north late Wed and Wed
night. Lows dropping into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Thursday through Saturday...Models in fairly good agreement
late week but then diverge going into next weekend. A stacked
low is forecast to move through the Mid-West Thu and Fri,
pushing a warm front through ENC Friday, with associated cold
front Sat as low pressure centers move through the Mid-Atlantic
and Great Lakes regions. Kept Thu dry for now...but could start
to see some showers spread into the area late as warm front
approaches. Increased pops slightly for Thu night into Fri
night. Will keep Sat dry for now...trending towards the ECMWF
and WPC though uncertainty as the 12z GFS keeps the front
stalled across the area with waves of low pressure moving along
it. Cooler for Thu and Fri with increased onshore flow and cloud
cover...with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s along the Outer
Banks, and low 60s to lower 70s inland.


Short Term /Through Sunday/...
As of 740 PM Sat...

VFR continues through midnight with MVFR vsbys possible in brief
fog all terminals between 09Z-12Z. Medium confidence on this
occurrence. Model guidance still supports our previous forecast
and dewpoints are running 4 to 6 degrees higher than last
night. Some high clouds right now are the only negative for fog
formation in that they would limit overnight cooling. Current
feeling is the clouds thin out enough and with an increased dew
point, felt the continued mention of fog was worth it. Any early
fog burns off by 13Z with VFR Sunday. Winds south around 10
knots for another hour or two then again on Sunday, with light
and variable expected in between or overnight.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...Pred VFR through the period, with periods of
sub-VFR possible Tuesday and Tuesday night in scattered showers
and isolated tstms. Patchy fog possible Monday morning.


Short Term /through Sunday/...
As of 1025 PM Saturday...

Diamond Buoy still running 4 feet with most of the other obs
closer to 2 to 3 feet. No major changes with this update as the
forecast is still on track. The previous AFD is below.

Latest guidance in line with previous
forecast of S-SW winds 10-15 KT tonight becoming more SE-S
around 10 KT Sunday with subtle shift of high pressure center
offshore. NWPS and WW3 in good agreement of seas 2-3 feet
tonight but diverge with NWPS building heights to 4 feet outer
waters Sunday afternoon while WW3 6-12 hours slower. Guidance
does indicate increasing SE swell around 10 second period, and
leaned to NWPS.

Long Term /Sunday night through Thursday/...
As of 230 PM Sat...High pressure will remain anchored off the
coast through Tuesday, as a slow moving cold front approaches
the waters. Still some uncertainty regarding the timing of the
frontal passage, but likely sometime Wed. High pressure will
build in from the north late Wed and Thursday. S/SW winds
generally 5-15 kt expected into early next week. Seas 2-4 feet
Sun night into early Mon. Models continue to show waves building
to 3-5 feet Monday afternoon. Could see some 6 ft seas develop
Monday night into Wed south of Oregon Inlet in combo of SW winds
and increasing swell energy. Best chance for 6 feet will be
across the outer central waters. N/NE winds 10-20kt developing
behind the front Wed and Wed night...and persisting into Thu.
Could see a period of SCA conditions develop behind the front
Wed and Thu depending on how strong the surge is.




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