Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 281917
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
317 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE WEEK...DRIFTING BACK TOWARD THE COAST LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NY/NORTHERN
PA...WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC
THROUGH CNTRL NC INTO THE GULF STATES. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD THIS AFTN WITH ENC IN WARM SECTOR. SPC CONTINUES TO
OUTLOOK EASTERN NC IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND
FAVORABLE DYNAMICS...AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES ACCOMPANIED BY
70-80KT UPPER JET. MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG SHEAR AND CLASSIC INVERTED V-TYPE
SOUNDING. CAPE VALUES 3000-4000J/KG...LI VALUES -8/-9C...AND 0-6KM
SHEAR 30-35KT. BEST INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 17 WITH DEEP WESTERLY FLOW CAPPING INLAND AREAS.
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE STILL REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN THROUGH THIS
EVENING AS MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND DRIER...THOUGH STILL THINK
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS MAINLY E OF HIGHWAY
17...FROM ABOUT OREGON INLET TO NEW BERN/RICHLANDS AREA AND POINTS
E/SE WITH ENHANCED CONVERGENCE AIDED BY SEABREEZE AND DIFF HEATING
BOUNDARIES. MAIN LIMITING FACTOR TODAY WILL BE THE DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW...WITH GUIDANCE SHOWING DEWPOINTS INLAND MIXING DOWN INTO THE
LOW/MID 60S. HOWEVER ANY TSTM THAT DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL
TO BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. ISOLATED TORNADO
THREAT AS WELL GIVEN STRONG SHEAR AND BOUNDARY. WILL DELAY START
OF SCT CONVECTION UNTIL AFT 20Z THIS AFTN. OVERNIGHT LOWS EXPECTED
FROM THE UPR 60S INLAND AND THE 70S COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...WE SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY...AS SFC FRONT WILL HAVE
SHIFTED OFFSHORE. HOWEVER...RETAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE THUNDER AS
H85 MB FLOW REMAINS SW DESPITE LIGHT N FLOW AT THE SFC. SOME
ELEVATED INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH LINGERING LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE
COULD GENERATE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER ESP ACROSS THE EASTERN
2/3 OF THE FA. PLEASANT TEMPS EXPECTED TUE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH
WILL RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRES TO THE WEST WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION TUE
NIGHT THROUGH THURS NIGHT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED WELL
OFFSHORE BRINGING LIGHT NLY FLOW AND UNSEASONABLY LOW DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE REGION. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPING
THROUGH PEAK HEATING EACH AFTERNOON BUT WITH A RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS BELOW 1.25" (LESS THAN 25 PERCENTILE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR)...COVERAGE WILL BE MINIMAL AND WILL KEEP POPS
BELOW 10 PERCENT. TEMPS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH LOWS IN THE LOW
TO MID 60S INLAND TO AROUND 70 COAST AND HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO
LOW 80S OBX.

BY FRIDAY...THE OFFSHORE BOUNDARY BEGINS TO RETREAT WESTWARD AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WHILE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND MOISTURE FROM AN UPSTREAM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES. BY
LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THE UPPER TROUGH LIFTS
NORTH AND IS REPLACED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WHILE THE QUASI-STATIONARY SFC TROUGH CONTINUES
ACROSS EASTERN NC. MOIST S TO SW FLOW PERSISTING ALOFT...SFC
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TROUGH AND AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL KEEP
CHC POPS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW CLIMO WITH SEASONABLE
DEWPOINT TEMPS FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE LONG TERM.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
AS OF 130 PM MON...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS EASTERN NC THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL TRIGGER SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE MAIN THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND
LARGE HAIL CONFINED TO EWN/OAJ. THEREFORE...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SUB-
VFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION WITH ANY PRECIPITATION
ACTIVITY. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE LATER THIS EVENING WITH
LINGERING LOW/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTY SW WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUBSIDE AND VEER TO THE NORTH AFTER THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE...FROM EAST TO WEST. NORTH WINDS...SOME LINGERING CLOUDS
AND A DRIER AIRMASS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT SOME CU DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY LATE MORNING.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
GOOD FLYING WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG AT THE
TERMINALS EACH MORNING BUT WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE
CONDITIONS ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT. A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BACK INTO THE REGION LATE FRI AND SAT BRINGING
INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM MON...LATEST OBS SHOW SW WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT
NORTH OF HATTERAS AND 3-5 FT SOUTH. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY 10-15 KT BEHIND THE FRONT.
SCATTERED TSTMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESP ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH STRONG/SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. WINDS N-NE
10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ON TUE.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM MON...HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WELL EAST OF THE
WATERS. WINDS WILL PREDOMINATELY BE NE TO E AOB 15 KT TUES NIGHT
INTO FRI WITH SEAS AROUND 2 TO 4 FT. THE FRONT RETREATS WESTWARD AS
A COASTAL TROUGH LATE FRI INTO SAT WITH WINDS BECOMING SLY LESS THAN
15 KT EAST OF THE TROUGH WITH SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT.


&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JAC
NEAR TERM...JAC
SHORT TERM...JAC
LONG TERM...SK
AVIATION...LEP
MARINE...JAC/SK






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