Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 062000

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

Low pressure will lift northeast across the area this afternoon, then
move offshore tonight and Wednesday. A strong cold front will move
through late Thursday, followed by cold high pressure Friday into
Saturday. The high will move offshore Sunday with a cold front
approaching from the west Monday.


As of 3 PM Tuesday...A dampening shortwave trough is lifting NE
into the mid-Atlantic with a Miller type-B sfc low pressure
pattern evolving across the region with 1003mb low pressure
across eastern KY and a 1004 mb low deepening near Cape Fear. The
heaviest precip is pushing offshore as mid level drying, evident
on WV imagery, is beginning to work into the region shunting the
best precip processes, however abundant mid level moisture will
persist and expect cloudy or mostly cloudy skies to persist with
an occasional light shower possible for the remainder of the
afternoon into the early evening. Presently seeing about a 10
degree temp spread across the region this afternoon with mid 50s
inland and mid 60s across the eastern half of the CWA as the
coastal trough has pushed inland. Don`t expect much more inland
penetration of the trough with the sfc low tracking along it
through the afternoon/early evening, then will move offshore as
the low lifts north of the region. Winds become W to NW with gusts
around 25-30 mph on the back side of the low as the low deepens
off the mid- Atlantic coast. Model soundings indicate a strong low
level inversion persisting overnight with abundant low level
moisture remaining and expect low stratus to keep mainly cloudy
skies with patchy fog possible overnight. Expect lows in the low
to mid 40s inland to around 50 coast.


As of 7 AM Tuesday...High pres begins to build in from the W
Wednesday with low level flow becoming northerly. Expect
stratus/fog to burn off by mid morning with dry weather through
the day. Highs expected around 55-60.


As of 215 AM Tue...A cold front will cross late Thu with coldest
air of the season expected Fri into Sat. Temps moderate Sunday
into early next week with a chance of showers developing.

Wed Night...Dry with seasonal temps as high pres to the W extends
into the area. Lows in the lower 40s inland to upr 40s/around 50

Thu through Sat Night...Cold front with limited moisture will
cross late Thu/Thu evening cont slight chc shra with front. High
temps ahead of front Thu will be in the upr 50s to lower 60s. Main
story will be cold air assoc with strong high pres building in
behind front Fri thru Sat...highs both days mainly low to mid 40s
with lows Fri night and Sat night reaching couple dgrs either side
of 25 inland to lower/mid 30s beaches.

Sunday through Mon...As the high begins to slide offshore Sunday
and hgts aloft rise temps will increase with high mainly mid 50s
to near 60. Cold front will be approaching from the west Monday
and moisture increases with chc of shra and mild highs mainly in
the lower 60s.


Short Term /Through Wednesday Afternoon/...
As of 1245 PM Tue...IFR conditions are widespread this afternoon
as rain and stratus have reduced ceilings. Although rain is moving
out, low clouds will hang on for most of the short term. LIFR
conditions are expected over the next few hours at all TAF sites
and should last until at least sunset. After that, there is more
uncertainty if LIFR conditions will persist, but if not IFR
conditions will definitely hold on this evening and overnight.
Patchy fog also possible overnight with rainfall and moist
boundary layer. VFR conditions will return after sunrise Wednesday
morning with dry weather expected.

With low pressure passing to the south of the airspace overnight,
winds will be quite variable. Currently, a coastal trough has
moved inland and is west of the TAF sites. This is causing a E/SE
wind across the area. Winds will eventually veer to the S/SW this
evening before turning W/NW by daybreak as low passes offshore.

Long Term /Wed through Sat/...
As of 215 AM Tue...Any lingering low clouds early Wed shld grad
lift/dissipate with VFR returning. Could again see some sub VFR
cigs Wed night as lower lvls remain moist ahead of cold front.
Front will cross later Thu...however limited moisture and expect
only light wdly sct shra with mainly VFR Thu. Strong/cold high
pres with very dry air builds in Thu night thru Sat with VFR and
mainly clr skies. NW winds will likely be a bit gusty Thu night
into Fri.


Short Term /through Wednesday/...
As of 3 PM Tuesday...Coastal low pressure centered near Cape Fear
will lift across eastern NC this afternoon and early evening.
Continue to see E/SE winds around 15-25 kt across the waters ahead
of the low this afternoon and could see some weakening of the
winds as the low tracks across the area expect winds to become
W/NW and increase back to 15-30 kt with higher gusts as the low
deepens off the mid-Atlantic coast overnight. NW winds around
10-20 kt Wed morning becomes N around 5-15 kt during the
afternoon. Seas around 6-9 ft continue overnight and gradually
subside through the day Wed. No planned changed to current SCA

Long Term /Wed Night through Sat/...
As of 215 AM Tue...Winds subside and seas diminish to 2 to 4 ft
Wed night into early Thu then gusty NW winds develop behind cold
front Thu evening into Fri. SCA a good bet most waters Thu night
into Fri morn with seas reaching 6 to poss 7 feet outer waters. As
the high builds closer Fri night into Sat winds will slowly
diminish and seas will subside to 3 to 5 feet Fri night and 2 to 3
feet by late Sat.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ130-131-
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ150-152-
     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ156-158.


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