Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 271054
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
654 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WEST OF THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE
COAST. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. OFFSHORE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 650 AM WEDNESDAY...MAIN CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WAS TO
INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS. LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOWING AREA OF
STRATUS AND FOG...ROUGHLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 17. GIVEN THE VERY DRY
UPPER LEVELS...THINK THESE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
REMAINS WELL OFFSHORE WITH WEAK RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO OUR
NORTH WITH LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN NORTHERLY UPPER FLOW. RADAR
CONTINUES TO INDICATE OCCASIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS MOSTLY
OFFSHORE...BUT A FEW SHOWERS HAVE CLIPPED THE OUTER BANKS. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP A 20 PCT POP IN FOR THE CENTRAL OUTER
BANKS...BUT THE REST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY WITH ONLY A FEW
STRATOCUMULUS IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
MODERATE AND WILL LIKELY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY
WITH MID TO PERHAPS A FEW UPPER 80S WELL INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM WEDNESDAY...AS THE CIRCULATION OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
RACES AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST...AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED AXIS OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS EAST OF THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER
PLEASANT NIGHT WITH LOWS MID/UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST WITH LOW 70S AT THE BEACHES. THE THREAT OF RAIN ALONG THE
OUTER BANKS WILL END BY THIS EVENING AND LOOK FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD TO THE DRY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...LATEST RUN OF BOTH GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MADE LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT
FORECAST. UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS INTO THIS
WEEKEND...BUT THEN IT GETS FLATTENED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL
SHORTWAVES MOVE EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND. AT THE
SURFACE A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THEN LIFT BACK NORTH ON SATURDAY. DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE
ARE WEAK AND KEPT 20-30 POPS CONFINED TO THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES.
MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMERTIME WEATHER RETURNS FOR SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WITH A DEEP SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE PIEDMONT TROF
DEVELOPS ONCE AGAIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY. BUMPED UP POPS A BIT FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. BOTH MODELS
SHOW A COUPLE OF WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE PASSING EITHER THROUGH OR
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...SATELLITE AND SURFACE OBS INDICATE A
PATCH OF STRATUS AND FOG IS IMPACTING MOST OF THE COASTAL PLAINS
WITH ALL BUT KOAJ NOW AT IFR/LIFR STATUS. THINK THESE LOW CLOUDS
WILL ALSO GET TO KOAJ AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNTS OF DRY AIR ALOFT
IN SOUNDING DATA...THINK THE CLOUDS WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING
WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE OF VFR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY INTO
TONIGHT...WITH JUST SOME SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DURING THE
AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE NORTHERLY AT 10 KNOTS OR
LESS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 3 AM WED...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION POSSIBLE SUNDAY AT
PGV AND ISO...STILL ISOLATED AT OAJ AND EWN. WINDS WILL BE LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST
THURSDAY...SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND SOUTH BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LITTLE CHANCE OF ANY LATE NIGHT/EARLY
AM FOG THROUGH SATURDAY. HOWEVER...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS
BEGINNING SATURDAY SO VFR/MVFR FOG POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
AS OF 655 AM WEDNESDAY...N/NE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE 15 TO 20 KNOTS
WITH SEAS AT 5 TO 7 FEET. LONG PERIOD SWELLS CONTINUE FROM
DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AS WELL WITH 13 SECONDS OFF DUCK. AS
THE STORM MAKES IT CLOSEST PASS TO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
MORNING HOURS TODAY...EXPECT TO SEE SEAS RAMP UP TO AS HIGH AS 11
OR 12 FEET AND PERHAPS SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CENTRAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL BEGIN TO RELAX A BIT
LATER THIS EVENING WITH N WINDS DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 15 KTS BY
EVENING. CONTINUE SCA ON THE COASTAL WATERS.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM TUE...ELEVATED ROUGH SEAS WILL CONTINUE WED
NIGHT...THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY THU AS CRISTOBAL
CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TO THE NE. EXTENDED SCA TIMES A FEW
HOURS...INTO THU AFTERNOON/EVENING...BASED ON LATEST
WAVEWATCH/LOCAL SWAN GUIDANCE. WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WATERS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS LESS THAN 15KT
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING PRED S/SW FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY DISSIPATES...AND SEAS 2-3FT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AS OF 325 AM WEDS...A HIGH SURF ADVRY CONTINUES FOR BEACHES FROM
LOOKOUT N THRU THIS EVENING. BOTH WAVE WATCH AND LOCAL SWAN SHOWS
SEAS BUILDING TO 8 TO 12 FEET OFF OBX WITH 7 TO 8 FOOT LONG PERIOD
SWELL ASSOC WITH CRISTOBAL. THESE SWELLS WILL LEAD TO VERY ROUGH
SURF CONDITIONS...MAINLY N OF LOOKOUT WHERE FLOW WILL BE ONSHORE.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NCZ095-103-
     104.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ150-156-
     158.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...HSA
AVIATION...CTC/HSA
MARINE...CTC/HSA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





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