Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 191801
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
201 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH THROUGH
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST SUNDAY JUST OFF THE
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL PASS BY TO THE NORTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE THIS UPDATE. THE
UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS OVER THE REGION TODAY AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
PUSHES INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC WHILE SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND RIDGES SOUTH INTO NEW ENGLAND BRINGING COMFORTABLE
E-NE FLOW. A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CONDITIONS DRY THOUGH WILL SEE PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT ACROSS THE AREA AND SCT CU THROUGH AFTERNOON
HEATING. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY AND EXPECT HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID 70S OBX ONCE AGAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AS OF 215 AM FRI...SFC HIGH CONTINUES TO RIDGE IN FROM THE NORTH
TONIGHT WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES. SFC
LOW PRES BEGINS TO DEEPEN OFF THE EAST COAST OF FL WITH AN
INVERTED COASTAL TROUGH APPROACHING THE NC COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.
COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER MOVE INTO THE COASTAL WATERS AND
PERHAPS THE CENTRAL COASTAL REGION...MAINLY FROM HATTERAS TO
LOOKOUT...BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. LOWS EXPECTED AROUND 60 INLAND
TO UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FCST WAS
TO INCREASE POPS TO 30% OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING.

00Z GFS DISCOUNTED DUE TO BEING AN OUTLIER WITH RAPID MOVEMENT OF
SFC LOW OFF COAST SAT NIGHT...AND LEANED TO 00Z ECMWF WHICH IS IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST MOST OF PERIOD.

PERSISTENT SE US UPR TROF FCST TO EVOLVE INTO WEAK UPR LOW BY LATE
SAT...THEN DAMPEN AND MOVE NE ALONG NC COAST SUN WITH SFC LOW MOVING
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE JUST OFFSHORE. ALBERTA CLIPPER-LIKE SHRT WV
WILL THEN DIVE SE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT AND PUSH A STRONGER
COLD FRONT THROUGH AREA. SFC AND UPR RIDGING WILL THEN PRODUCE
MOSTLY DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS FOR TUE AND WED. SRN PORTION OF UPR
TROF AGAIN FCST TO STALL S OF AREA...AND BEGIN TO LIFT N THU WITH
COASTAL TROF DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WITH SFC HIGH WEDGED IN TO N.

PREVIOUS FCST FOR SAT AND SAT EVENING ON TRACK WITH INCREASING CLOUDS
AND CHC OF MAINLY COASTAL SHOWERS WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT TO S AND
UPR LOW MOVING NE ALONG COAST. ECMWF AND NAM GENERALLY AGREE ON
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER ERN HALF OF AREA LATE SAT
NIGHT AND SUN MORNING AS SFC LOW MOVES UP JUST OFFSHORE TO S AND E.
PCPN CHANCES THEN DIMINISH SUN AFT AND SUN NIGHT BUT QUICKLY
INCREASE AGAIN MON AND MON NIGHT WITH SHRT WV DIVING IN FROM
NW...AND NO CHANGES TO CHC POPS FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS.

SAT THROUGH MON WILL SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH SUNDAY
LIKELY THE WARMEST DAY IN THE PERIOD WITH SOME MID 80S INLAND.
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUE-THU AS NORTHEASTERLY FLOW REDEVELOPS
OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE
AREA FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
AS OF 145 PM FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRES KEEPING DRY CONDITIONS. NE-E WINDS WILL
GUST TO 15-20 KT WITH MIXING THIS AFTN...MAINLY KEWN AND KOAJ.
MOS GDNC BACKED OFF A BIT ON INDICATING IFR VSBYS WITH FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE A FEW BREAKS IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AND A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT TO CALM WINDS HOWEVER...SO KEPT A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR VISIBILITY IN FOG IN FOR ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT EWN.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MAY SEE CIGS OCCASIONALLY LOWER TO MVFR LEVELS
(OR LOWER) DURING THE WEEKEND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT MOIST ONSHORE LOW
LEVEL FLOW. THE BEST CHANCES FOR LOWERED CIGS WOULD BE SATURDAY
NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AS A NOCTURNAL INVERSION STRENGTHENS
OVERNIGHT THEN WANES AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY. MONDAY AFTERNOON AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD TRIGGER A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AS IT CROSSES THE REGION. PREVAILING
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 145 PM FRI...NO CHANGES THIS UPDATE. SFC HIGH PRES
STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND WITH PRES GRADIENTS TIGHTENING ACROSS THE
WATERS. WINDS ARE RUNNING 10-20 KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 25 KT ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. SEAS CURRENTLY 3-6 FT HIGHEST
AROUND DIAMOND SHOALS. COULD SEE SEAS REACH 7 FT NEAR DIAMOND
SHOALS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. WILL MOVE UP START TIME OF SCA GIVEN
GUSTY WINDS ALREADY DEVELOPED AND 6 FOOT SEAS AT DIAMOND BUOY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 400 AM FRIDAY...MARINERS CAN EXPECT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS MAINLY FOR SEAS OVER WEEKEND DUE TO PERSISTENT MODERATE
NE-E FLOW. THERE CONTINUES TO BE BELOW NORMAL CONFIDENCE WITH THE
FORECAST FOR SUNDAY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING THE INTENSITY AND
TRACK OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF OF THE COAST. THERE IS ENOUGH
CONSENSUS IN THE GUIDANCE TO INDICATE THAT AT LEAST SEAS OVER THE
WATERS PERSISTING AROUND 6 FT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. WINDS SUNDAY
SHOULD BE STRONGEST IN THE MORNING THEN BACK TO WEST AND DIMINISH
LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS WILL BE VEERING FROM THE WEST EARLY MONDAY TO
NORTH MONDAY EVENING AS A RAPIDLY MOVING COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT NORTHERLY FLOW INITIALLY WILL BE AROUND 15
KT TUESDAY BUT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO AROUND 20 KT MID TO LATE
WEEK WITH RESULTING SEAS REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS AS STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FROM THE NORTH.

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM SATURDAY TO 11 PM EDT SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...SK
NEAR TERM...RSB/SK
SHORT TERM...SK
LONG TERM...BTC/JME
AVIATION...JME/SK
MARINE...RSB/JME/SK




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