Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 051351
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
951 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION TODAY AND VERY
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTH OVER EASTERN NC SUNDAY THEN LIFT NORTH OF
THE REGION MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ANCHORED OFF THE
COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...LITTLE CHANGES TO THIS UPDATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW
CONTINUES TO DROP INTO THE TN RIVER VALLEY WITH AN ASSOCIATED
BACKDOOR FRONT PROGRESSING SW FROM RAH TO ILM. THIS FRONT ALONG
WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL LIFT HAS PROVIDED CENTRAL NC WITH SOME
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS. THIS WILL PIVOT ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS
AFTERNOON, ALBEIT STRENGTHENING IN INTENSITY WITH
THUNDERSTORM/HAIL POTENTIAL. MORE INFORMATION ON THIS BELOW...

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...H2O VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS LARGE UPPER LOW
SPINNING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE OHIO/TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEYS
THIS MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE ACROSS E NC...DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO PUMP MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD. WEAK BACKDOOR
SFC FRONTAL BNDRY HAS MOVED SOUTHWESTWARD AND IS DRAPED ROUGHLY
FROM ROCKY MOUNT TO WILMINGTON. FRONTAL INVERSION HAS DEVELOPED
WITH 500-1000 FOOT STRATUS DECK ENVELOPING ALL BUT DUPLIN COUNTY.
TEMPS CURRENTLY IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S AND WILL REMAIN IN
THIS RANGE THROUGH EARLY MORNING.

AS THE LARGE UPPER VORTEX PIVOTS INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY...LARGE SCALE LIFT WILL COMMENCE AS DPVA/OMEGA INCREASES
STEADILY THROUGH THE DAY. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO 60-80 FOR ALL
BUT THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. THE STALLED SFC BOUNDARY WILL ACT TO
ENHANCE PRECIP DEVELOPMENT BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN FACT MOST
HIGH RES MODELS INCLUDING CAMS INDICATE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY IS NOT
OVERLY IMPRESSIVE FOR MAY...ANOMOLOUS COLD POCKET ALOFT AND QUITE
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COMBINED WITH FREEZING LEVELS ONLY
AROUND 7-8K FT WILL PRODUCE EFFICIENT HAIL PRODUCING
THUNDERSHOWERS IN HEAVIER CELLS. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE HAIL DUE TO
LACK OF APPRECIABLE CAPES...THOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
HAIL TO DIME/NICKEL SIZE. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE HAIL THREAT IN HWO.
TEMPS WILL BE RELATIVELY COOL TODAY DUE TO THE WIDESPEAD
PRECIP/CLOUDS WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM 65-70...COOLER ON THE OBX
(NEAR 60) WHERE NE WINDS PERSIST OFF THE COOL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 4 AM THU...WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS CONTINUE TONIGHT AS LARGE SCALE LIFT REMAINS WITH
CONTINUING DEEP OMEGA. THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS
OF INSTABILITY BY SUNSET. A WIDESPREAD AREA OF 1 INCH OR MORE OF
RAIN IS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS WHICH RECEIVED
APPRECIABLE RAIN OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. LOWS WILL GENERALLY
BE IN THE LOW 50S TONIGHT AS THE COOL UPPER LOW PIVOTS OVER
EASTERN NC WITH FALLING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN
NC FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER. THE UPPER
LOW WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE A WEAK
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. THE WEAK BOUNDARY
LIFTS BACK NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH A RETURN TO DRY
CONDITIONS AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS EARLY TO MID WEEK.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY: A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL ROTATE AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER CLOSED LOW OVER THE REGION, HELPING
SUPPORT SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH SATURDAY. A SURFACE LOW WILL
REMAIN NORTHEAST OF EASTERN NC FRIDAY, SHIFTING NORTH INTO THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. STEEP LAPSE
RATES WILL AGAIN BE PRESENT FRIDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. ANY BREAKS
IN PRECIP/CLOUDS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SURFACE BASED DESTABILIZATION
AND GIVEN COLD POOL ALOFT, A SMALL THREAT FOR HAIL WILL BE PRESENT
SHOULD ANY THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDER
FROM ROUGHLY 15Z-00Z FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT
OFF THE EAST COAST SATURDAY WHILE COLUMN DRYING ENSUES LEADING TO
SHOWER ACTIVITY ENDING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FROM WEST
TO EAST. PRECIP ENDING, CLEARING SKIES, AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL
THICKNESSES WILL YIELD MAX TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER
60S ALONG THE COAST/OBX.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP
BRIEFLY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BACKDOOR FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
SLIDE SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE SUNDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STALLED ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT THOUGH MOISTURE
REMAINS LIMITED, THUS WILL CONTINUE DRY FORECAST ATTM. THE FRONT
EVENTUALLY LIFTS NORTH MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW DEVELOPING
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS BETTER LIFT AND
MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE FRONT. TEMPS WILL
SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THIS PERIOD, PERHAPS DROPPING A DEGREE OR
TWO MONDAY GIVEN THE FRONT BISECTING EASTERN NC. HIGH TEMPS WILL
BE IN THE LOW 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST FOR BOTH
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. TEMPS RAMP UP BY MID WEEK AS WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW
INCREASES. HIGHS IN THE MID 80S INLAND TO MID 70S ALONG THE OBX
FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. LOW TEMPS INCREASING THROUGH THE WEEK
AS WELL, LOW TO MID 60S BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 7 AM THU...IFR IN STRATUS ENVELOPING ALL TAF SITES THIS
MORNING. GOOD CONFIDENCE ON THE IFR CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND 13Z
THEN A BIT OF A CHALLENGE DETERMINING IF THE LOW STRATUS WILL LIFT
TO MVFR THEREAFTER. THINK THAT KOAJ AND KEWN HAVE A BETTER CHANCE
OF MIXING OUT TO MVFR AS THE DEEPER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
MORE ENTRENCHED AT KISO AND KPGV WHERE THE IFR CONDITIONS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCT TSRA DEVELOPING OVER REGION THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL TO DIME SIZE. RETURN TO WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR IN STRATUS MAY OCCUR TONIGHT AS DEEP UPPER LOW PRESSURE
PIVOTS OVER EASTERN NC. SCT TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...SUB-VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY, MAINLY DUE TO SHOWERS AND/OR MVFR
CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
EASTERN NC TAF SITES. GIVEN PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
PLACE, FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING COULD SEE LOW
STRATUS/FOG DEVELOP. AVIATION CONDITIONS IMPROVE SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AS DRIER AIR WORKS ITS WAY INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW INCREASES SUNDAY AHEAD OF A WEAK AND MOISTURE-STARVED BACKDOOR
FRONT WHICH WILL STALL ACROSS EASTERN NC LATE SUNDAY, THEN LIFT
NORTH OF THE REGION MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW RE-ESTABLISHES ACROSS
EASTERN NC MONDAY BUT REMAINS 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 945 AM THU...NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN WATERS
HAS STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WITH THE BACKDOOR
FRONT PUSHING SOUTHWEST, FEEL THE GRADIENT WILL STAY FAIRLY
CONSISTENT THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SCA
POTENTIAL. FOR NOW, SEAS ARE GENERALLY 3 TO 5 FEET WITH NNW FLOW
15 TO 20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...BACKDOOR COOL FRONT HAS DROPPED
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH JUST SOUTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS ARE 10-20
KT FROM THE NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT. THE NE WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE. COULD SEE SOME
OCNL GUSTS TO 25 KT THOUGH WILL REFRAIN FROM SCA HEADLINES AS
THINK GUSTS WILL BE BRIEF. 2 TO 4 FT SEAS THIS MORNING WILL BUILD
TO 3 TO 5 FEET BY AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WESTERLY TONIGHT BEHIND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND CONTINUE IN THE 10-20 KT RANGE.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 315 AM THURSDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE
EASTERN NC WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY, WHILE A SURFACE LOW LIFTS
NORTH FROM OFF THE DELMARVA ON FRIDAY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
BY FRIDAY NIGHT, YIELDING MOSTLY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. NW WINDS MOSTLY 5-15 KT WILL PRODUCE SEAS
3-5 FT (2-4 FT NEARSHORE) FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN BRIEFLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF A BACKDOOR FRONT THAT WILL SLIDE
SOUTH INTO THE WATERS SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT, LEADING TO A TRICKY
WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY, THOUGH
WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW 15 KT WHILE WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL VARY WITH LOCATION OF THE FRONT. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE WATERS MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN NC WATERS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MID
WEEK. RELATIVELY WEAK WIND REGIME WILL YIELD SEAS MOSTLY 2-3 FT
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS AND WAVEWATCH IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE, WITH WAVEWATCH REASONABLE IN
SOUTHERLY FLOW FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL/LEP
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...DAG/TL
MARINE...DAG/TL/LEP



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