Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 290454
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
1254 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Bermuda high pressure offshore with a trough inland will persist
through the weekend. A weak cool front will approach from the
northwest early next week then stall near the area by mid week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 1250 AM Friday, quiet weather across the region with clear
skies and very warm temperatures, still in the low/mid 80s
approaching 1 AM. No major changes to the overnight forecast as
convection remains well north in central and eastern Virginia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday...Models similar in showing a little drier
air over the region. This shld lead to less instab and given lack
of forcing will cont with just isold TSRA threat for the
afternoon inland. Highs again well into the 90s however with
dewpts forecast to be a little lower shld have heat index values
103 to 108.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 3pm Thursday...The heat and dry pattern will shift to a
wetter and slightly cooler pattern as the mid/upper ridge
transitions to a broad trough starting this weekend and through
next week. Meanwhile, at the sfc, a cold front moves farther
south, bordering VA/NC and will cross the area early next week.

Saturday and Sunday...Mid/Upper level ridging starts to break
down Saturday, while models are depicting weak short waves moving
across eastern NC. Meanwhile, a cold front slowly approaches from
the north, but remain to the north, while the Piedmont trough
shifts towards the coast. This will provide better chances for
showers and thunderstorms for both Saturday and Sunday. High
temperatures will be about two degree lower on Saturday and then
on Sunday another degree or two lower. Expect highs in the low/mid
90s inland to mid/upper 80s along the OBX.

Monday through Thursday...Mid/upper level trough axis will be
over NC, meanwhile shortwave energy will ride along the base of
the trough. At the sfc, the stalled cold front will slowly shift
south and will move into Eastern NC on Tuesday morning. This will
lead to scattered to widespread rain and thunderstorms for Monday
and Tuesday. By Wednesday, both trough axis and frontal boundary
will push offshore, while high pressure extends from the New
England region. Mid/upper level ridge starts to build back again
from the west, meanwhile the frontal boundary remains offshore and
dissipate. 850 mb temperatures will decrease for this period, and
combined with increased cloud cover will drop high temperatures
into the upper 80s/low 90s inland to mid 80s along the coast
Monday. Tuesday through Thursday, high temps will be a few degree
lower with highs in the upper 80s inland to low/mid 80s along the
coast.

Low temperature will remain in the low/mid 70s during this
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short term /Through 06z Saturday/...
As of 1250 AM Friday, confidence remains high in a VFR forecast
overnight as a SW breeze of 6-10 knots should provide sufficient
mixing to preclude much in the way of fog. Friday will remain dry
with only minimal chances of thunderstorms.

Long Term /Friday Night through Monday/
As of 315 pm Thursday...Expect sub-VFR conditions as the weather
pattern becomes more scattered to widespread rain/convection as
the Bermuda high shifts south and a frontal boundary approaches
from the north early next week. Winds will continue SW 5-15 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /Tonight and Fri/
As of 1250 AM Friday, SW winds remain gusty over the Pamlico Sound
and central and northern waters with a few gusts near or in excess
of 20 knots, with 10-15 knots elsewhere. Winds should drop off a
bit toward morning before increasing to 15-20 knots again during
Friday afternoon. Seas continue generally 1-4 feet, but will again
build to 3-5 feet Friday, primarily outer srn/central waters.

Long Term /Fri Night through Tuesday/
As of 315 Thursday...The Bermuda high axis will move further
south, while a frontal boundary approaches from the north early
next week, resulting in an increase chances of scattered to
widespread rain/thunderstorms across the marine zones. SW flow
10-20 knots and seas 2-4 feet on the coastal waters, and 5-15
knots on the adjacent sounds and rivers.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RF
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...RF
LONG TERM...BM
AVIATION...CTC/BM
MARINE...CTC/SK/BM



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