Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 200833
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
333 AM EST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend over the area from the north into Tuesday.
The high will slide offshore Wednesday. A cold front will move in
from the west next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
As of 325 AM Monday, quiet weather pattern to continue today
with spring-like temperatures and clear skies, as strong high
pressure builds east from the upper Ohio Valley over the eastern
Carolinas. Temperatures today will be a couple of degrees cooler
than Sunday with highs lower 70s over the southern and western
tier, but upper 50s to lower 60s Outer Banks with N/NE winds and
closer proximity to cooler ocean waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
As of 330 AM Monday, axis of high pressure ridge will settle
over the eastern Carolinas tonight with winds becoming nearly
calm, allowing temperatures to fall into the upper 30s along the
northern tier of the CWA, ranging to the lower 40s south and mid
40s around Cape Hatteras.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM Mon...Spring-like pattern through the extended
with much above climo temps expected along with just slight
chances for showers mid week before a stronger front moves into
the area by next weekend.

Tuesday...Broad sfc high pres will traverse SE Canada through
this period, weakly ridging into E NC with NE sfc flow. Despite
the N to NE flow, upr and lower heights remain above avg so
temps will remain above climo. Highs range from the mid/upr 60s
SW zones to upr 50s OBX courtesy of NE winds. Tue night will be
mild with increasing clouds keeping temps in the 40s.

Wednesday through Thursday...Zonal flow aloft over area during
mid week as closed low tracks through the GOM. 20-30% pops for
western zones as low amplitude nrn stream short wave and
weakening cool front crosses. NAM model way too overdone and
spins up phantom low pres across the area so discounted this
soln and went with GFS/ECM/CMC blend. Thursday afternoon mainly
dry though could see an iso shower develop across interior zones
as sea breeze develops. GFS appears overdone with precip and
bndry layer moisture, and have blended more realistic ECM/CMC.
Temps will climb back into the 70s on Wednesday and warm further
into the upper 70s some interior zones Thursday. Highs will
remain in the 60s immediate coast with the onshore flow. Lows
will be quite mild in the 50s during this time period.

Friday through Saturday...Upr trf and deep sfc low traversing
upper midwest Fri will drag a cold front through the area by
next weekend. A bit more agreement amongst 20/00Z global model
suite with timing of the front moving through later Sat. This
will keep area mainly dry Fri though cannot rule out an iso
thundershower on sea breeze during the afternoon. It will be
even warmer with highs reaching 80 some areas per low lvl
thicknesses +1380 meters. Increasing southerly flow will advect
humid air into the region with TD`s soaring towards 60 degrees.
Warm and muggy Fri night with temps around 60 for mins. Best
chance of thundershowers on Sat ahead of cold front, and with
shear and instability in place, will have to watch for
potential strong and even severe threat. Latest ECM keeps the
aforementioned upr trof and sfc low sheared out well to the
north which would limit threat for widespread convective
activity, and will advertise no higher than 40% pops attm.
Another extremely warm day with highs around 80 inland to 60s
immediate coast.

Sunday...Front will have swept offshore bringing cooler high
pres to the region and NW to N winds. However, heights only
fall to near climo so temps will still be at or above normal for
late Feb, with highs in the lower 60s (50s OBX).

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Short Term /Through 06Z Tuesday/...
As of 1 AM Monday, despite calm winds currently, boundary layer
remains fairly dry per latest MHX sounding and with winds
expected to increase a bit from the N/NW toward morning, mixing
should prevent any fog formation. VFR conditions should prevail
through Monday with sunshine and dry low-levels.

Long Term /Tuesday thru Saturday/
As of 330 AM Mon...Mainly VFR through Friday. May see an iso
shower on Wed and again Thur afternoon, though very slim chance
at this time. Better chance in form of thunderstorms arrives on
Saturday ahead of a cold front that will move through late
Saturday. Surface winds will be from the east around 5 knots
Tuesday, southwest around 5 knots Wednesday, and southwest 10-15
knots Thursday and Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 335 AM Monday, winds are becoming generally north on the
coastal waters and sounds and should increase to 10-15 knots by
daybreak. As the gradient between 1025+ mb high over West
Virginia and low well off the east coast tightens this
afternoon, winds will increase to 15-20 knots over northern and
central waters and 10-15 knots elsewhere. Per latest local
SWAN/NWPS model, expect seas of 2-4 feet today, building to 3-5
feet by later this evening and tonight.

Long Term /Tuesday through Saturday/
As of 330 AM Mon...Light NE winds Tuesday will veer SW on Wed
and remain SW through Thursday. Winds increase on Friday and esp
on Saturday ahead of approaching cold front. Speeds will be 5-15
kt through Thursday, increasing to 10-20 kt Friday, and 15-25
knots on Friday night through Saturday. Seas remain below 6 feet
until Friday night and Saturday when SCA conditions return to
the waters.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...CTC/TL
MARINE...CTC/TL


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