Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 280538
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
1237 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS
THE REGION MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT
THEN LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TUESDAY. A STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND CROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1237 AM SAT...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORHWEST BRINGING MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES TO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHTTIME HOURS...BUT WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST.
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THINGS COOL WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 20S THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH MID 30S IN IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
STRONG SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA UNDER A NEAR ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COLD
DAY WILL WRAP UP THE ALREADY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE MONTH
OF FEBRUARY. INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF DOWNSTREAM SHORT WAVE WILL
HELP HOLD HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE MID AND UPPER 30S
OVER NORTHERN AREAS AND TO AROUND 40/LOW 40S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 3 PM FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONT OVER THE REGION SAT
NIGHT WITH COLD LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S INLAND TO
UPPER 20S/AROUND 30 COAST. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
SUNDAY WITH WAA OVER THE REGION...TEMPS WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID
40S TO LOWER 50S.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CROSS THE REGION MON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY
NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND PEAK MONDAY AS THE FRONT CROSSES. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE RANGE GIVEN UNCERTAINTY ON
TIMING/MOISTURE. WILL BE MILD WITH LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT UPR 30S TO
MID 40S AND HIGHS MONDAY IN THE 50S TO AROUND 60. THE WEAK FRONT
WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH MON NIGHT WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING SOUTH
OVER EASTERN NC. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FORECAST TREND FOR LOWERING
POPS MONDAY NIGHT...WITH MOST LOCATIONS DRY EXCEPT FOR FAR
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ONSLOW/DUPLIN COUNTIES IN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THE
FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY WITH CHANCE
OF RAIN SHOWERS AS TEMPS CONTINUE IN THE 50S TUESDAY.

EASTERN NC WILL BE IN WARM SECTOR WEDNESDAY WITH SW WINDS...BOTH
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW LIMITED MOISTURE OVER REGION SO MAINTAINED
LOWERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AND TEMPS INTO LOWER 70S INLAND. NEAR
SHORE WATER TEMPS ARE COLD AND THIS WILL KEEP BEACHES MUCH COOLER
WITH POSS THREAT OF SEA FOG. STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WED
NIGHT AND CROSS THURSDAY. THE GFS REMAINS A FAST OUTLIER WHILE THE
OPERATIONAL ECMWF DELAYS FRONTAL PASSAGE UNTIL THURSDAY. THE OPER
ECMWF HAS SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE CANADIAN GEM
SO WILL DISCOUNT THE GFS IN THE FAR EXTENDED AT THIS TIME AND
HEDGE CLOSER TO THE 12Z ECMWF/WPC SOLUTION. TEMPS WILL REMAIN
VERY MILD AHEAD OF THE FRONT THROUGH MIDDAY THURSDAY WITH TEMPS
WELL INTO THE 60S INLAND. RAIN SHOWERS WILL INCREASE THURSDAY WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE COAST THURSDAY
AFTERNOON WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING EAST OVER THE REGION
FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. THICKNESSES FALL QUICKLY BEHIND
THE FRONT FRIDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S NORTH TO
LOW 50S SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1228 AM SAT...VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE BULDING IN TO THE
NORTH AND WEST BRINGING NORTHEASTERLY FLOW TO AREA TAFS. GRADIENT
WILL TIGHTEN UP DURING THE DAY BRINGING SOME STRONGER WINDS TO
SOUTHERN TAFS FOR A FEW HOURS BEFORE GRADIENT LOOSENS AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS NORTH OF AREA. WILL SEE CLOUDS LOWER SOMEWHAT
AND THICKEN SATURDAY NIGHT AS POSSIBLE COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG
THE COAST...BUT WILL REMAIN IN VFR RANGE.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND MOVE OFFSHORE SUNDAY, LEADING TO
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY WITH JUST SMALL THREAT OF
SOME LOWER CIGS WITH NE FLOW SAT VEERING TO SE SUNDAY. COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS MONDAY WITH BETTER CHANCES OF
PERIODS OF REDUCED CIGS/VSBYS. FRONT WILL STALL TO SOUTH MON
NIGHT AND LIFT BACK NORTH AS WARM FRONT TUESDAY WITH POSSIBLY SOME
LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES ESP TUESDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER
THE AREA. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AS SURFACE FLOW SHIFTS SOUTHWEST AND MAY BECOME GUSTY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 1232 AM SAT...NORTH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING 15 TO 20 KTS WITH SEAS MARGINAL SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL KEEP
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISC...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND A WEAK MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER TONIGHT. NO
CHANGES TO THE ADVISORIES IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. WINDS WILL LIKELY
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALBEMARLE SOUND AND
RIVERS BUT BORDERLINE FOR PAMLICO SOUND AND COASTAL WATERS. SEAS ARE
ALREADY 6+ FT OVER MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS, SO A SCA WILL REMAIN
IN EFFECT THROUGH SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND WILL LIKELY
POST A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PAMLICO SOUND AS WELL. NORTH WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GRADUALLY RELAXES AT
THE COAST LATE SATURDAY.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 310 PM FRIDAY...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SAT NIGHT THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST LATE SUNDAY. AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES EAST SUNDAY,
WINDS WILL DIMINISH AND BECOME MORE ESE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
SUNDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS MON. SW WINDS WILL INCREASE TO
15-20 KTS AHEAD OF THE FRONT THEN SHIFT TO THE NW BEHIND IT
MONDAY. SEAS WILL BE IN THE 3-5 FOOT RANGE MON. MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS MON NIGHT WITH SEAS CONTINUING 3-5
FT THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW 6 FT SEAS FOR THE FAR OUTER
FRINGES OF THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS FROM OREGON INLET SOUTH TO
OCRACOKE INLET. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE WATERS
LATE TUESDAY WITH WINDS SHIFTING SSE AND SEAS MAINLY 2 TO 4 FT.
WINDS CONTINUE TO VEER SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND INCREASE 15-25 KT
WITH SEAS BUILDING 4-7 FT DUE TO A TIGHTENING SOUTHWESTERLY
PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WATERS. THE FRONT WILL NEAR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND CROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY MIDDAY. LOCAL SWAN/NWPS
REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. MODIFIED THE 12Z
WAVEWATCH III A BIT FOR THE EXTENDED DUE TO GFS-BASED WINDS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH TOO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOWS FOR 2/28:

NEW BERN       20/1963
CAPE HATTERAS  25/1963
GREENVILLE     11/1963
MOREHEAD CITY  24/2002
KINSTON        15/1934
JACKSONVILLE   21/2002

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ135.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ152-154.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ156-158.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ150.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BTC
NEAR TERM...CGG
SHORT TERM...BTC
LONG TERM...DAG
AVIATION...CGG/CTC/DAG
MARINE...CGG/BTC/CTC/DAG/LEP
CLIMATE...BTC



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