Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 021853
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
253 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERING ALONG THE COAST OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES WILL DISSIPATE MONDAY. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL AFFECT
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED ON THE
SEA BREEZE. THINK COVERAGE WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
POP SHOULD COVER THINGS THROUGH THE EVENING UNTIL ACTIVITY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE LOW THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND WITH 59 DEGREES AT KOAJ AND 61 AT KPGV. THESE
DEWPOINTS SHOULD RECOVER OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD SEE LOWS AROUND 70
WELL INLAND TO THE MUGGY MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
AS OF 245 PM SUNDAY...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH AND
SHARPEN ON MONDAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS ON STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS WILL SERVE TO DRAW DEEP AXIS
OF MOISTURE...CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF STREAM...BACK TOWARD THE
COAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO A TIGHT GRADIENT OF MOISTURE ACROSS OUR
CWA WITH SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST...BUT A
GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE INLAND. WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST TAPERING QUICKLY TO SLIGHT CHC OVER THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE CWA. HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT WITH TEMPERATURES WITH
LOW/MID 80S COAST WITH UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS.
OVERALL INSTABILITY IS RATHER LIMITED AND WILL LIKELY JUST SEE
SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING MID TO LATE
MORNING ON MONDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER ALONG THE
COAST MON NIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES AND A WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ALONG REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DEEP INLAND LOOKS MOSTLY DRY AS
BEST MOISTURE STAYS ALONG THE COAST. HIGHS MON LOWER 90S INLAND TO
80S CST WITH 70S AREAS WIDE MON NIGHT.

MAIN STORY FOR THE TUE AND WED WILL BE THE HEAT AS TYPICAL
SUMMERTIME PATTERN RE-DEVELOPS WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND
STRENGTHENING TROUGH INLAND. HEIGHTS BUILD THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH
LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND 850MB TEMPS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 80S/LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST...AND MID 90S/POSSIBLY A FEW
UPPER 90S INLAND. FCST DEWPTS STILL KEEP APPARENT TEMPS BELOW 105
BUT WILL BE CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY. ISOLATED/WIDELY SCT POPS TUE
AND WED WITH BEST CHC CST EARLY MORNING AND INLAND DURING AFTN AND
EVENING.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE WEEK WITH
INCREASING WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES. UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPS TO
THE WEST WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON EXACT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT...BUT
MODELS HAVE BOUNDARY STALLING OVER THE AREA OR JUST NORTH...WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT...FINALLY PUSHING THROUGH
THE AREA SAT. WILL CONT CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WILL
REMAIN MUGGY HOWEVER TEMPS WONT BE QUITE AS HOT WITH MAINLY UPR
80S AND LOWER 90S. LOOKS LIKE IT STARTS TO DRY OUT SUN WITH N/NE
FLOW AND FRONT MOVING OFF THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
AS OF 1255 PM SUNDAY...PRETTY MUCH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR
AVIATION THIS TAF CYCLE. SHOULD SEE A FEW CUMULUS ONLY THE SEA
BREEZE WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT KEWN AND KOAJ. WITH
INCREASING DEWPOINTS TONIGHT...WILL AGAIN SEE PATCHY AREAS OF
IFR/MVFR FOG IN THE PREDAWN HOURS ON MONDAY.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...PRED VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PATCHY FOG/STRATUS POSSIBLE EACH MORNING...THOUGH LOW LVL
SW FLOW WILL LIMIT THE THREAT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION FRI WITH BETTER PRECIP COVERAGE AND POSSIBLE SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 250 PM SUNDAY...WINDS ARE NOW GENERALLY SE/S ON ALL COASTAL
WATERS. SPEEDS HAVE INCREASED TO AROUND 15 KNOTS OVER THE CENTRAL
WATERS AND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ELSEWHERE WITH SEAS 1 TO 3 FEET...WITH
STILL A BIT OF SWELL OVER NORTHERN WATERS. AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
MONDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE EAST AND APPROACHING
SURFACE LOW...MAY SEE PERIODS OF 15 TO 20 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. LATEST LOCAL SWAN/NWPS MODEL SHOWING
SEAS GETTING TO 5 FEET WITH A FEW AREAS OF 6 FEET WELL OFFSHORE
MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL CAP AT 5 FEET FOR NOW.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 240 PM SUN...SSW WINDS EXPECTED AT 10 TO 20 KTS THROUGH THE
FCST PERIOD AS TRF CONTS INLAND WITH HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE.
PERSISTENT GUSTY WINDS WILL KEEP SEAS ELEVATED ESPCLY OVER THE
OUTER WTRS FROM HAT S WHERE WILL BE MAINLY 5 TO 6 FT TUE INTO WED.
A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE NORTHERN WATERS WED...AND COULD
SEE TEMP WIND SHIFT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE
WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING
THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE FRONT. WILL MAINTAIN SSW FLOW AND
SEAS 3-6FT THROUGH FRI...THOUGH BOUNDARY COULD MOVE INTO THE
WATERS AND STALL WITH VEERING WINDS.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CTC
NEAR TERM...CTC
SHORT TERM...CTC
LONG TERM...CQD
AVIATION...CTC/CQD
MARINE...CTC/CQD



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