Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Newport/Morehead, NC

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000
FXUS62 KMHX 072353
AFDMHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
753 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND AN INLAND TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE ENTIRE WEEK. A WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA ON SATURDAY
THEN GRADUALLY DISSIPATE ON SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE WITH
AN INLAND TROUGH SETS UP AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 730 PM TUE...MOST OF THE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. LATEST
MESO ANALYSIS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE SFC TROUGH OVER CENTRAL NC AND
HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE. THIS WILL ALLOW A PERSIST SOUTHWEST FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A CLEAR AND MUGGY NIGHT WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG BEFORE SUNRISE...BUT THE THREAT IS
NOT ENOUGH TO BE MENTIONED IN THE GRIDS. SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 330 PM TUE...ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON WED...AND COULD
BE A DEGREE OR TWO HOTTER AS THICKNESSES CONTINUE TO RISE. LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS CALCULATOR AND GFS/ECM MOS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HIGHS UP TO THE MID 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S BEACHES. ANOTHER
TYPICAL SUMMERY DAY WITH JUST AN ISO THUNDERSHOWER POSSIBLY
DEVELOPING ON THE SEA BREEZE AND PROPAGATING INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. UPR FORCING IS VERY LIMITED SO LIMITED POPS TO 20
PERCENT (DRY ON THE BEACHES).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...MINIMAL CHANGES TO THE OVERALL EXTENDED
FORECAST AS HOT TEMPERATURES AND LIMITED RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH A BETTER CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO
THE S WITH LIMITED FORCING KEEPING BULK OF TIME DRY. WILL CONT
MAINLY SLIGHT CHC POPS DURING AFTN/EVENING INLAND AND ALONG IMD
CST EARLY MORNING. DID ADD CHC POPS NW TIER WED EVENING AS SVRL
MDLS SHOW ENHANCED QPF THIS REGION AS WK SHRT WAVE CROSSES TO THE
N. THU LOOKS LIKE HOTTEST DAY WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES 100 TO 103. MUGGY AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE
70S TO AROUND 80 BEACHES.

FRIDAY THROUGH SAT NIGHT...THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS W
ALLOWING NW FLOW TO PUSH WEAK FRONT INTO THE NRN TIER LATE FRI
AND REST OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WEAK IMPULSES CROSSING
IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL LEAD TO
A BIT BETTER CVRG OF SHRA/TSRA...STARTING INLAND AND N FRI AFTN
AND SHIFTING S OVER REST OF THE REGION FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT.
FRI WILL STILL BE HOT MOST AREAS WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
90S. LIGHT NE TO E FLOW MOST AREAS WILL LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS SAT
ESCPLY NRN CST/OBX WHERE LOWER 80S EXPECTED.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT SUNDAY WITH
OFFSHORE HIGH PRES DOMINATING EARLY NEXT WEEK. BAND OF MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE COMBINED WITH SRT WAVES
CROSSING WILL LEAD TO SCT SHRA/TSRA SUN AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AN UPR
TRF STARTS TO DEVELOP TO THE W EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THIS WILL LEAD
TO CHC OF SHRA AND TSRA ESPCLY INLAND DURING THE AFTN/EVENING. 850
TEMPS APPROACH 20C AGAIN SUN THRU TUE WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE
90S INLAND...MUGGY NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE 70S TO AROUND 80 CST WILL
CONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT A MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WITH A LIGHT SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
MODELS ARE INDICATING A LACK OF STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT
DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINT DEPRESSION AND LIGHT WIND FLOW. CAN NOT RULE
OUT SOME ISOLATED/PATCHY FOG INLAND. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE MID-
MORNING ALONG WITH SW WINDS. EXPECT AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH MOST
OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING WHICH WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUB VFR...BETTER CVRG OF TSRA EXPECTED SAT INTO SUN AS FRONT
STALLS OVER REGION AND SLOWLY WASHES OUT. AS WE HAVE SEEN PAST
CPL WEEKS...PATCHY IFR STRATUS/FOG ALSO POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE HEAVIER RAINFALL.&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AS OF 730 PM TUE...MINOR TWEAKS TO REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS.
LATEST BUOY OBS ARE SHOWING SOUTH/SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 KTS WITH 2
TO 3 FT SEAS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. MODERATE S TO SW FLOW WILL
CONTINUE ON THE WATERS. GENERALLY EXPECTING 15-20 KT ON PAMLICO
AND MUCH OF THE COASTAL WATERS...TO 10-15 KT OR LESS ON ALBEMARLE
SOUND AND RIVERS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT THROUGH
WED...WITH POSSIBLY A 5 FT SET ON THE OUTER CENTRAL WATERS AT
TIMES.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 230 PM TUESDAY...SSW WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS EXPECTED INTO FRI
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT..POSS REACHING 5 FT OUTER CNTRL WTRS. FRONT
WILL REACH FAR NRN TIER LATE FRI THEN DROPS THRU THE REGION FRI
NIGHT AND STALL OVER FAR SRN TIER SAT. THE FRONT WILL THEN GRAD
WASHOUT ON SUNDAY. LIGHT NE TO E WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
LATE FRI NIGHT AND SAT WITH WINDS GRAD BECOMING S LESS THAN 15 KTS
SUNDAY. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2 TO 3 FEET LATER FRI NIGHT AND CONT
IN THAT RANGE THRU SUNDAY.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TL
NEAR TERM...TL/BM
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...RF
AVIATION...RF/BM
MARINE...RF/TL/BM


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