Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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170
FXUS62 KMLB 020108
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
909 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT-OVERNIGHT...EVENING KXMR SOUNDING SHOWS A CONTINUED DRY
ATMOSPHERIC PROFILE WITH A PWAT OF ONLY 1.08 INCHES. IN SPITE OF
THIS A FEW SHOWERS WERE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WESTERN ORANGE AND
LAKE COUNTIES THIS EVENING ALONG THE ECSB BUT EXPECT ALL ACTIVITY TO
DIMINISH SHORTLY ACROSS ECFL. ESE/SE WINDS FALLING TO AROUND 5 MPH
OVER THE INTERIOR AND 5-10 MPH NEAR THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE U60S/L70S.

MONDAY...PREVIOUS...BRISK ZONAL COMPONENT TO THE H50-H10 FLOW OVER
THE SRN TIER STATES WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE W ATLC TOWARD
BERMUDA. AS IT DOES...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE MS RIVER VALLEY
WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WITH PREFRONTAL MOISTURE
FILTERING INTO N FL. AT THE SAME TIME...THE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN THE
SERLY H100-H70 FLOW THAT HAS PERSISTED FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS. THIS
LOW LVL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TAP A SLUG OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
ENCROACHING ON THE SRN BAHAMAS.

THE RESULTING TWO-FRONTED MOISTURE ADVECTION PATTERN WILL MODIFY THE
DRY AIR ENOUGH TO BRING PWAT VALUES INTO THE 1.25"-1.50" RANGE BY
18Z MON...AND TO AROUND 1.5" BY 00Z TUE. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS DRIFTING SEAWARD...SFC/LOW LVL WINDS WILL TAKE ON A
SLIGHTLY MORE SRLY DIRECTION. THIS WILL SHIFT ANY LATE AFTN/EARLY
EVNG SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MERGER BACK TO THE E...WHILE W/SW FLOW THRU
THE H85-H50 STEERING LVL SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR BLOWBACK PRECIP
ALONG THE BREVARD/VOLUSIA CO COASTS.

THERE REMAINS A SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE H85-H30 LYR
THAT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO FULLY MODIFY...GFS SUGGESTING AVG LYR
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS BTWN 10-15C THRU 18Z MON...BTWN 7-10C THRU 00Z
TUE...WHICH WILL LIMIT COVERAGE POTENTIAL. WILL CAP POPS AT 30PCT
FROM BREVARD/OSCEOLA NWD...20PCT FOR THE TREASURE COAST/LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION AS SEABREEZE FORMATION AND INLAND PROPAGATION WILL
BE GREATER OVER THE SRN CWA...WHILE THE MORE SRLY H100-H70 FLOW
PLACES MUCH OF OKEECHOBEE CO IN THE SHADOW OF LAKE-O. MAX TEMPS
SIMILAR TO TODAY...HIGHS ARND 90F ACROSS THE INTERIOR...SEA BREEZE
KEEPING COAST MAXES IN THE MID 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDS OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT ESE/SE WINDS OF 5-
10 KTS. WIND SPEEDS INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MON...OCNLY BREEZY ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. INCREASING MOISTURE ON MON WITH
SCHC-CHC CONVECTION (TEMPO MVFR). CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE
ECSB NEAR THE EAST COAST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON SPREADING INLAND
LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MARINE...OVERNIGHT-MON...GENTLE TO MODERATE ESE/SE WINDS TO CONTINUE
THRU THE PERIOD. 3 FT SEAS NEAR THE COAST WITH 4 FT SEAS OVER THE
OPEN ATLC. CHOPPY SHORT DOMINANT WAVE PERIODS EXPECTED.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SEDLOCK/CRISTALDI



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