Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 261400
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
900 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...WET/BREEZY/COOLER THEN CLEARING LATE TODAY...
...HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE TODAY THEN OFFSHORE
TONIGHT/THANKSGIVING...

CURRENT-TODAY...FAIRLY STRONG COLD FRONT TRAVERSING ECFL THIS
MORNING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST IMMEDIATELY
BEHIND IT FOR A SHORT DURATION (30-35 MPH). NW WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DIE DOWN A FEW HOURS AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT WILL STILL SEE
AFTERNOON WINDS IN UPWARDS OF 15 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS.
WILL HANG ONTO FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON...THOUGH ADDITIONAL FLOODING
THREAT FROM LIGHT RAINFALL ON RADAR VERY LOW. WILL UPDATE ZONES AT
THAT TIME AS WELL TO CLEAN UP FIRST PERIOD WORDING. MUCH COOLER AIR
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS VIEWED FROM OBSERVATIONS OF LOWER 50S ALONG
THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THE TREASURE COAST STILL BASKS IN LOWER 70S BUT
NOT FOR LONG. DO NOT BELIEVE WE WILL SEE MUCH RECOVERY FROM
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY. TEMPERATURES OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT LIKELY THE HIGHS FOR THIS CALENDAR DAY. OCCASIONAL LIGHT
RAINFALL BEHIND FRONT WILL GRADUALLY END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS AREAWIDE LIKELY LESS THAN A
QUARTER OF AN INCH. THINNING OF CLOUD COVER TO BEGIN LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH.

TONIGHT...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO THIN/CLEAR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FILTER DOWN THE
PENINSULA. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WILL DRIVE DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S...EXCEPT COASTAL LOCATIONS MAY REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE UPPER 40S
TO NEAR 50 DEGREES. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL FALL TO BELOW 10 MPH AND
THOUGH EVEN WITH A SLIGHT WIND IT WILL FEEL COOLER LATE
OVERNIGHT/TOWARDS DAWN BUT WE ARE NOT CLOSE TO WIND CHILL ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

&&

.AVIATION...

SFC WNDS:
W OF KMLB/KOBE: THRU 26/18Z...W/NW 14-18KTS WITH SFC G22-26KTS.
BTWN 26/18Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT 27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: BTWN 26/14Z-26/16Z...WNDSHFT TO NW 12-15KTS WITH SFC
G22-25KTS...CONTG THRU 26/20Z. BTWN 26/20Z-26/24Z...NW 8-12KTS. AFT
27/00Z...W/NW AOB 5KTS.

CIGS/VSBYS:
W OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/16Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL012-018
WITH LCL IFR CIGS BTWN FL004-006...VSBYS GENERALLY VFR -RA...LCL
MVFR IN RA/BR. BTWN 26/16Z-26/19Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA FL120...VSBYS
VFR.

E OF KMLB-KOBE: THRU 26/18Z...PREVAILING MVFR CIGS BTWN FL020-035
WITH AREAS IFR CIGS BTWN FL006-009...VSBYS GENERALLY MVFR IN
RA/BR...LCL IFR IN +RA/BR. BTWN 26/18Z-26/22Z...CIGS LFTG TO AOA
FL120...VSBYS VFR.

&&

.MARINE...TODAY-TONIGHT...STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL MARINE LEGS MID-LATE MORNING. SW WINDS WILL
VEER QUICKLY TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO
20-25 KTS/GUSTY NEAR SHORE AND 25-30 KTS/OCNL GUSTS TO GALE FORCE
OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY. CURRENTLY HAVE SCA ENDING NEAR SHORE AT
21Z...CONTINUING SCA OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. WILL RE-ACCESS WITH
AFTERNOON PACKAGE. WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD OF CAUTIONARY STATEMENTS
FOR SMALL CRAFT WHEN SCA DOES END (NEAR SHORE/OFFSHORE). SEAS
BUILDING TO 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE AND 7-9 FT OFFSHORE...SUBSIDING TO 3-5
FT NEAR SHORE AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE/GULF STREAM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR COASTAL VOLUSIA-INLAND
     VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-
     SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN BREVARD-SOUTHERN LAKE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL
     WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE
     OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER
     INLET OUT 20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY
     LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WATERS FROM
     FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM
     OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20 TO
     60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO
     SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

SEDLOCK/PENDERGRAST




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