Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 280751
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
351 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
BUT REMAINS NORTH OF FLORIDA TODAY. A STRENGTHENING DEEP WESTERLY
FLOW WILL DEVELOP AS A RESULT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. RH CROSS
SECTIONS SHOW A FAIRLY DEEP LAYER OF DRIER AIR IN THE MID LEVELS
ACROSS THE REGION BY MORNING AND TEMPS ALOFT WILL BE A LITTLE WARMER
THAN NORMAL. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORMING ALONG
THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND PUSHING EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL
KEEP POPS RANGING FROM 20 PERCENT OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TO 30
PERCENT CLOSER TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE WHERE SLIGHTLY GREATER MOISTURE
EXISTS. OFFSHORE FLOW WILL REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...SO EXPECT HIGHS EVEN AT THE
COAST TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 90S.

FRONT MOVES INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY LATE TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. WILL THEREFORE KEEP A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS LAKE AND VOLUSIA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.
LOWS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 70S...EXCEPT LOW 70S
ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY.

TUE-WED...UPPER TROUGH REMAINS PRESENT OVER EASTERN U.S. THRU THE
PERIOD WITH SUFFICIENT AMPLITUDE TO EXTEND BASE WELL SOUTH INTO
DIXIE. SETUP IN PLACE TO MOVE AN OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO
N FL TUE AND FLIRT WITH CENTRAL FL WED. ASSOCIATED BANDED MOISTURE
WILL SERVE TO RETURN HIGHER POPS TO THE FORECAST TUE BUT WITH
SYNOPTIC EFFECTS ON DISTRIBUTION AND TIMING OF STORMS. GFS SHOWS
OPPORTUNITY FOR BANDED HIGHER POPS INTO S THIRD OF PENINSULA WED.
WSW PREFRONTAL/FRONTAL WINDS THE GENERAL FLOW POSTURE. WARM WITH MAX
TEMPS LOW TO MID 90S WITH 40-50 PERCENT POPS...BUT LOWER POPS BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY RELATIVE TO ITS SOUTHWARD REACHING EXTENT FOR
WED.

THU-SUN...CHANCE FOR BOUNDARY TO REACH S END OF THE PENINSULA FOR
THU AND FRI AS IT FURTHER WEAKENS AND ERODES. BEST RAIN CHANCES FOR
THE LOWER TREASURE COAST IN PROXIMITY. OTHERWISE...BELOW NORMAL POPS
THU GRADUALLY INCREASING FRI INTO WEEKEND TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES.
PERSISTENT UPPER TROUGHINESS OVER EASTERN U.S. WILL KEEP THINGS
INTERESTING AND ATYPICAL. HOWEVER...LOCAL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS
SHOULD SLACKEN TO ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO BE THE PRIMARY
CONVECTIVE GOVERNOR.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS GENERALLY EXPECTED. DRIER AIR WILL LEAD TO
LOWER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS...GENERALLY REMAINING ISOLATED
AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPO IFR/MVFR
CONDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THIS ACTIVITY BUT DUE TO LOWER
RAIN CHANCES HAVE KEPT VCTS OR TEMPO GROUPS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR
NOW.


&&

.MARINE...

TODAY/TONIGHT...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY. WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL EXIST UP TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE AND 2-3
FEET OFFSHORE. WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OFFSHORE INTO
TONIGHT UP TO 15-20 KNOTS WITH SEAS UP TO 4 FEET. LOWER THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON WILL BE ABLE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

TUE-FRI...OUT-OF-SEASON FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE N FL WATERS
AND INCREASES STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN FOR TUE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM.
OFFSHORE SEAS 3-4 FEET N OF CAPE CANAVERAL...OTHERWISE 3 FEET OR
LESS. WITH OFFSHORE MOVING WINDS...WAVE HEIGHTS 1-2 FEET NEARSHORE.
WED MUCH LIKE TUE EXCEPT EMPHASIS AREA SHIFTS S OF SEBASTIAN INLET
WITH BEST CHANCES FOR STORMS. SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS ALL WATERS. WIND
RELAXES BEYOND WED INTO FRI WITH AN ONSHORE COMPONENT IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  77  94  74 /  20  20  50  30
MCO  94  76  94  75 /  20  10  50  30
MLB  95  78  93  74 /  20  20  40  30
VRB  93  76  92  74 /  20  20  40  30
LEE  93  78  94  76 /  20  20  50  30
SFB  95  78  94  76 /  20  10  50  30
ORL  94  78  94  77 /  20  10  50  30
FPR  93  75  92  74 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION...WEITLICH
LONG TERM....SHARP





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