Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 281401
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
10 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.Discussion...
TD2 located southeast of the GA/SC line was moving northwest at
about 14 mph per the latest NHC advisory and is well north of East
Central Florida. High pressure stretches northeast to southwest
along the Appalachian Mtns and into the Northeast Gulf of
Mexico/Florida Big Bend area.

Water vapor satellite imagery showing that the dry subsident mid
level air covered the northern third of East Central Florida and
should hamper afternoon precipitation. East to northeast winds bring
morning showers to the coast then clear out north of Cape Canaveral.
Deeper moisture to the south and marine layer stratocu will be
pushed ashore by the northeast to east wind. Expected  isolated to
scattered showers first at the coast south of Cape Canaveral then
the interior late morning and in the afternoon as the marine
stratocu is pushed west/inland by the prevailing east to northeast
winds.

The current 20-30 POP everywhere except the 40 POP in place from
northwest Osceola to western Martin and west to the Kissimmee River
looks good.

Zone update will freshen up the wording for the afternoon hours.

&&

.Aviation...
Tempo VFR ceilings KISM to Indiantown west to the Kissimmee River.

&&

.Marine...
Buoy 41009 20nm east of Cape Canaveral was recording Northwest wind
at 10 knots and 4.6 seas with a 4.3 foot, 8 second northeast swell
component. Buoy 4101 at 120nm east of New Smyrna Beach was recording
east northeast wind around 10 knots and a 6.6 foot wave composed of
a 6.2 foot, 8 second east northeast swell component.

Did an earlier marine update to account for the 5 to 6 foot seas
beyond 40nm of the Volusia County coast.

Should see a slow small increase in the seas as the swell being
detected at buoy 41010 works its way toward the East Central Florida
coastal waters this afternoon and evening.


Previous Discussion issued at 813 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.AVIATION...VFR Afternoon showers vicinity TAF sites Kissimmee
Melbourne south still a good call.

.MARINE... Quick update to the offshore Flagler Beach to Volusia
Brevard County Line marine zone to add Small Craft Exercise Caution
For Seas, seas to 6 feet beyond 40nm of shore.

&&

Previous Discussion issued at 325 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...A slowly organizing TD2 has already reached
its closest point to central Fl early this morning as it treks NW
toward the SE US coast. Peripheral effects on the traditionally
dry western side of this feature show deepest drying is confined
just to the west of the local area. Suitable moisture for
development of afternoon pcpn will exist mainly inland and across
the Treasure Coast where backing mid level winds wl tend to focus
rain chcs inland as the east coast breeze develops and moves
inland. A few marine based showers will affect the coast this
morning before inland locations become the primary development
area by early afternoon. expect partly to mostly sunny skies with
warm temperatures and northeast to north breezes.

This evening, late precipitation inland should come to an end by
around 10 pm. Marine showers should remain confined to the waters
and Gulf stream due to lack of an onshore steering component.
Expect partly cloudy skies and pleasantly mild temperatures to
fall into the u60s by daybreak Sunday.

Sun-Sun night...Remnants of TD#2 will meander near the Carolinas on
this day with moisture wrapping around counter-clockwise. A light
wind regime continues with early morning NWRLY flow becoming onshore
along the coast as the ECSB develops and penetrates inland. Winds
become light to calm again in the evening. Weak mid-upper troughing
over the area, combined with decent moisture and surface heating
will be enough to ignite mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms
(20pct coast/30pct interior). Highs in the M80s along the coast and
U80s to around 90 degrees inland. Lows in the U60s/L70s.

Memorial Day...The pressure gradient remains weak with light
offshore morning winds becoming onshore along the east coast in the
late morning/afternoon. A similar day to Sun with mainly afternoon
SCHC-CHC convection favoring inland areas. Highs in the L90s inland
and U80s at the coast. Overnight lows continue in the U60s to
L70s.

Tue-Fri...A persistent pattern continues with weak mid-upper level
troughing still across the FL peninsula during this time. At the
surface the pressure pattern continues weak and we will see a daily
sea breeze regime with boundary collisions across the interior. Will
continue CHC afternoon/early evening storm chances with convection
favoring the interior. The storm motion will be fairly weak with
main storm threats of locally heavy downpours, lightning, and gusty
winds. Consistent highs/lows with maxes U80s/90 degrees interior and
M-U80s at the coast, mins in the U60s/L70s areawide.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds will be primary over the forecast area over the next
24H. There will be isold shra along the coast with development of
sct shra and afternoon TS inland bringing brief mvfr conds mainly
S of KISM to KMLB.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight...Outer buoy 41010 indicates higher wave train
with seas around 6ft and periods of 9-10 sec beyond the marine
area poised to enter the waters during the day. Outer waters will
feel the greatest effects from swell ascd with developing TD2 with
seas averaging around 5 ft and around 3 to 4 ft seas within 20nm
from the coast into tonight. Headlines for winds and seas are not
anticipated.

Sun-Sun night...Weak pressure gradient over the area with offshore
morning winds transitioning to onshore at the coast with sea breeze
formation and push inland. Mainly isolated shra/tsra chances. Wind
speeds generally AOB 10 kts. Seas 2-3 ft near shore and 3-4 ft
offshore.

Mon-Wed...Favorable small craft boating conditions continue as a
persistent weak wind regime remains in place with late night/morning
offshore winds becoming onshore by afternoon surrounding the ECSB.
Wind speeds generally 6-12 kts. Isolated shra/tsra chances. Seas
generally 2 ft near shore and 3 ft over the open Atlc.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  86  69  87  69 /  20  10  20  30
MCO  91  70  91  70 /  30  10  30  30
MLB  87  71  86  70 /  30  20  20  20
VRB  87  69  86  68 /  30  20  20  20
LEE  91  71  90  71 /  30  10  30  30
SFB  90  70  90  70 /  20  10  30  30
ORL  90  72  90  72 /  30  10  30  30
FPR  87  69  86  67 /  30  20  20  20

&&

.MLB Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

IMPACT WX/DSS/AVIATION...Kelly
FORECASTS...Wimmer



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