Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 182054
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
354 PM EST Thu Jan 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...

...Freezing Temperatures Expected Again late tonight but not as
widespread as last night...
...A Better Chance for Frost...

Tonight...Another cold night as high pressure noses in from the
west and produces more of a radiational cooling night with light
winds and clear skies. Modification of the very dry airmass is
taking place along the coast as flow above the sfc begins to take
on a more onshore component. This will bring some scraps of marine
stratocu across the coast from the Cape southward. At the sfc
though, a light N/NW drainage flow will set up and allow
temperatures to fall quickly after sunset. Although temperatures
are not expected to be as cold, still expect freezing temps across
Lake, Volusia, Seminole and Orange counties where a Freeze Warning
is in effect. The highly urbanized areas of Orange/Seminole may
not freeze but rural areas should see at least a couple hours at
or below freezing. To the south and east, freezing temps are less
likely but mins in the mid 30s are expected with high RH so this
looks like a set-up a frost. Frost Advisories are pretty rare
around here and cannot say I am highly confident of widespread
frost. Nonetheless, think there will be some "areas" of frost for
mainland Brevard, Osceola, mainland Indian River and Okeechobee
(which does not include the barrier islands) where cold
temperatures in the mid 30s meet high humidity.

Fri...Warming trend commences with a light NE flow and
considerable stratocu across the south. Max temps will still be
below normal ranging from the upper 50s along the immediate
Volusia coast to the mid 60s Okeechobee/Treasure coast.

00Z Sat - 12Z Sun...
Strong H100-H70 anticyclone centered over the wrn GOMex will push
acrs the FL Peninsula Fri night and recenter itself btwn the Bermuda
and the nrn Bahamas and over the weekend where it will gradually
weaken.  E/SE flow dvlpg by daybreak Sat thru the H100-H85 lyr will
rapidly modify the cold/dry air, preventing a third consecutive
night of freezing temps while allowing overall readings to recover
to more seasonable levels.  Sat mrng mins generally in the L/M40s
over the interior and north of I-4...U40s/L50s Space/Treasure Coast,
warming to withing 5F of climo avg (U60s-L70s) Sat aftn. Warming
trend conts thru Sun with mrng mins in the M/U50s interior and
U50s/L60s along the coast...max temps in the L/M70s.

PWat values AOB 0.25" statewide and blo 0.10" at KTBW, not to
mention on of the strongest subsidence inversions this fcstr has
ever seen (btwn 45-50C statewide!) will require a sig amount of time
to modify to the point where precip can be reintroduced to the fcst.
Furthermore, a weak mid lvl short wave trof pushing acrs the Deep
South/GOMex region on Sat will force winds abv H85 to veer to W/SW,
which will effectively block out even the potential for low-topped
coastal shras along the Space and Treasure Coasts. MAV MOS PoPs of
20-30pct over the srn counties Sat night/Sun looks way too
optimistic, ECM MOS PoPs are even higher. Fcst will remain dry.

Mon-Thu...(prev disc)
Progressive pattern as series of longwave troughs move toward FL.
First trough likely to weak with most/all energy lifting north of
CWA late Mon with potential for more southern latitude influence
from following trough toward or beyond mid week. Much disparity
between GFS/ECMWF solutions at this stage, but believe weakening,
shallow frontal boundary/wind shift will settle into/through CWA Mon
night/Tue, continuing risk of enhanced cloudiness and
isolated/scattered showers into mid week. Warmest day/night of
forecast period Monday with temps 1-2 categories above normal, then
trending cooler Tue-Wed as winds shift northerly behind boundary Tue
then veer NE Wed.

&&

.AVIATION...
Marine clouds will produce temporary MVFR CIGs (015-025AGL).
Otherwise, VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...Northerly flow will gradually diminish to 10 knots
overnight but seas will be slower to subside esp in the Gulf
Stream. Small Craft Advisory will continue through midnight for
the gulf stream then will likely be allowed to expire. Elsewhere,
small craft should exercise caution this evening.

Sat-Sun...Center of a strong high pres ridge will build acrs the FL
Peninsula and into the W Atlc where it will slowly weaken thru the
upcoming weekend.  Light to gentle E/NE breeze thru the day Sat,
bcmg gentle to moderate by daybreak Sun south of Sebastian Inlet,
then a gentle to moderate E/SE breeze Sun night. Seas 2-3FT over the
shelf waters, 3-4FT in the Gulf Stream. Slgt chc shras in the Gulf
Stream.

Mon-Mon night...Ridge axis will continue to weak over the W Atlc as
it slides seaward in advance of the next cold front.  Gentle to
moderate E/SE breeze at daybreak, bcmg S/SE by sunset, then a light
to gentle S/SW breeze by daybreak Tue. Seas subsiding to 2-3FT. Slgt
chc of shras during the day...aft sunset chc of shras north of Cape
Canaveral, slgt chc south.

Tue-Tue night...Shifting winds as a weakening cold front pushes thru
central FL and the lcl Atlc. Lgt/vrbl winds at daybreak bcmg a light
to gentle N/NW breeze by midday, N/NE by sunset, then gentle to
moderate NE overnight. Seas 2-3FT nearshore and 3-4FT offshore thru
the day, building to 3-4FT nearshore and 4-5FT offshore aft sunset.
Slgt chc of shras.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fri...Min RH likely to reach 35 percent from Lake George to Orlando
to St. Cloud westward, with 25-30 percent possible across Lake
County. North winds will be very light, with poor dispersion.

Temperature and moisture recovery beyond Friday with no additional
low RH concerns into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  29  60  44  65 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  31  64  45  70 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  34  64  49  68 /   0   0   0  10
VRB  38  65  51  69 /   0   0   0  10
LEE  30  62  43  68 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  31  62  43  69 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  33  63  45  69 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  38  66  51  69 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Indian River-
     Northern Brevard County-Okeechobee-Osceola-Southern Brevard
     County-St. Lucie.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 8 AM EST Friday for Coastal Volusia
     County-Inland Volusia County-Northern Lake County-Orange-
     Seminole-Southern Lake County.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for Flagler Beach to
     Volusia-Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Sebastian Inlet to
     Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-
     60 nm-Volusia-Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60
     nm.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Bragaw
LONG TERM....Kelly


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