Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 301336
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
936 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SOUNDING PARAMETERS FROM XMR SHOW LITTLE CHANGE IN AIRMASS OVER THE
PAST 24H WITH SUITABLE MOISTURE AND THERMAL PROFILE FOR DEVELOPMENT
DEEP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS AT STEERING LEVEL HAVE
DECREASED TO LESS THAN 10 KT AS WEAK RIDGING REMAINS ESTABLISHED
JUST N OF THE REGION. MAIN WILDCARD IS EARLY CLOUDINESS FROM
OVERNIGHT STORMS OVER THE SPACE COAST ATLANTIC WATERS. THE EARLY
CLOUD COVER ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST WILL HINDER PCPN POTENTIAL DUE
TO INLAND BOUNDARY COLLISIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE INTERIOR WILL
GENERALLY BE FAVORED FOR HIGHER POP DUE TO LIGHT WINDS VERTICALLY
AND HAVE RAISED POP TO MATCH TBW GRID. WL HOLD OFF A LITTLE ON
FORECAST UPDT TO MONITOR CLOUD DISSIPATION OR LACK OF IT ALONG THE
COAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
TEMPO MVFR VCSH AND VCTS DURING THE AFTERNOON...EARLY AT THE COAST
AND MID AND LATE AFTERNOON INLAND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY-TONIGHT...(PREVIOUS DISC) BOTH THE NOAA AND SCRIPPS BUOYS WERE
RECORDING 2 TO 3 FOOT LONG PERIOD SEAS/SWELL. THE NOAA BUOYS AS WELL
AS THE CMAN SITES AT TRIDENT PIER IN PORT CANAVERAL AND AT SEBASTIAN
INLET WERE RECORDING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 KNOTS OR LESS. WITH
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS JUST NORTH AND A WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT...LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WITH EXCEPTION OF AN EASTERLY WIND IN THE AFTERNOON DUE TO A SEA
BREEZE.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

JP/WU








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