Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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000
FXUS62 KMLB 182001
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
401 PM EDT THU SEP 18 2014

.DISCUSSION...

...BOATING CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...

THRU TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS SHOULD PRESS
SOUTH ACROSS THE NORTH INTERIOR THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET THEN DIMINISH
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. HAVE DRAWN A 30 POP ORLANDO METRO NORTH AND
WEST THROUGH 8 PM. CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK AS FAVORABLE FOR FOG
TONIGHT AS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST
AND A PERSISTENT...ALBEIT LIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW NEAR THE COAST.
BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PATCHY FOG WILL BE OVER THE FAR INTERIOR WHERE
WINDS SHOULD GO CALM. ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC THIS EVENING
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE AND COULD APPROACH THE COAST
TOWARD MORNING AS ONSHORE (E/NE) FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE.

FRI...WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH FL ALONG
OLD FRONTAL TROUGH AND SUPPORTED BY SOME MID LEVEL VORT ENERGY.
THIS WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND INCREASE
THE E/NE WINDS. THIS WILL PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE CLOUDS WHICH WILL
HOLD MAX TEMPS TO THE MID 80S. RAIN CHANCES LOOK HIGHEST ACROSS
THE SOUTH...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST...AND WILL NOT ARGUE WITH
LIKELY MOS POPS THERE. AM NOT SURE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE AS
HIGH NORTH OF ORLANDO WHERE THE AIRMASS MAY NOT MOISTEN AS
QUICKLY.

THE LONG PERIOD SWELLS FROM "EDOUARD" WILL GRADUALLY DECAY AND
TONIGHT SO EXPECT A LOWER THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY.

FRI NIGHT-SUN...
TRANSIENT CUTOFF H50 LOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG/OFFSHORE THE
SERN SEABOARD AND THE NRN HALF OF FL FRIDAY NIGHT-SAT. SHORT WAVE
ENERGY DIVING SE COUPLED WITH A SHEARED OFF PIECE OF REMNANT MID
LEVEL VORTICITY FROM FORMER EPAC HURCN "ODILE" WILL COMBINE TO
PRODUCE THE FEATURE THROUGH 12Z SAT WITH THE POS TILT FEATURE
EJECTING OUT AND OPENING UP NE OF FL SAT NIGHT-SUN AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING DEEP ERN CONUS TROUGH. FORCED ASCENT WILL YIELD PRES
FALLS EAST OF FL...WITH BAROCLINIC SFC WAVE/LOW DEVELOPMENT
NEAR/NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO LATE SAT
NIGHT...BEFORE RACING OFF THE NE ON SUN.

HGTS FALLS ALOFT WILL LEAD TO INCREASING RAIN/STORM CHCS FRI
NIGHT-SAT (60-70) WITH THE BOTH GLOBAL MODELS SHOWING A LITTLE
MORE MID LVL TROUGHINESS LINGERING OVHD...AND LESS AGGRESSIVE WITH
THE DRYING BEHIND THE SFC LOW ON SUN. AS A RESULT...RAISED POPS UP
TO 40-50 FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND. CLOUDS/PRECIP SHOULD
HOLD TEMPS DOWN BELOW CLIMO.

MON-THU...
NEXT WEEK STARTS OFF WITH WEAK HIGH PRES IN PLACE OVER ECFL...WHILE
A DEEP LAYER ERN CONUS TROUGH DRIVES A COLD FRONT WELL INTO THE SERN
CONUS. TYPICAL OF MANY EARLY FALL ATTEMPTS OF MODIFIED POLAR AIRMASS
INTRUSIONS TOWARD/INTO NORTH AND CTRL FL...THE ACTUAL BOUNDARY WILL
GET BRIDGED BY STRONG HIGH PRES TO ITS NORTH WITH STOUT ONSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

COUPLED WITH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...THIS WILL LEAD TO MORE OF A
SHOWERY TYPE PATTERN WITH A MORE DIFFUSE ECSB LEADING TO LESS TS
COVERAGE BY WED-THU. MAX TEMPS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO MON-TUE
WILL DROP BACK IN FRESHENING ONSHORE FLOW WED-THU.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR THROUGH 16Z. ISOLD SHRA/TSRA MAY AFFECT INTERIOR TERMINALS
THROUGH 00Z. NE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS FRIDAY WITH INCREASING MULTI
LAYERED CLOUDS AND COVERAGE OF RAIN AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTH FL.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT EAST WINDS TONIGHT WILL INCREASE FRIDAY NEAR 15 KNOTS AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER
SOUTH FL. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF CAUTION OR EVEN ADVISORY
CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST.
CURRENTLY HAVE SEAS BUILDING 4 TO 5 FT OFFSHORE DURING THIS
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  74  84  71  86 /  10  60  40  60
MCO  73  87  69  85 /  20  60  50  60
MLB  76  84  73  83 /  10  70  50  60
VRB  73  84  73  84 /  10  70  50  60
LEE  73  86  68  86 /  20  60  40  60
SFB  74  86  70  86 /  20  60  40  60
ORL  75  87  69  85 /  20  60  50  60
FPR  73  84  73  84 /  10  70  50  60

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$

KELLY/VOLKMER




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