Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 170145
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
945 PM EDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.DISCUSSION...

Diurnal convection got off to an early start today despite fairly
warm mid lvl temps...H70 readings arnd 10C and H50 temps arnd -6C.
Weak winds kept storms more or less in place, allowing for several
well defined boundaries to converge south of the I-4 corridor with
one confirmed waterspout over Indian River in the vicinity of the
528 Causeway.

Latest RAP40 analysis shows the Bermuda Ridge axis draped over
central FL...resulting in a very weak pgrad with variable winds thru
10kft. The latest 88D wind profilers measuring north winds at
KJAX/KTBW/KMLB...while the 915Mhz profiler indicated SW winds thru
the same lyr. Drier air moving onshore over the south half of the
peninsula with RAP40 indicating H100-H70 mean RH decreasing from
arnd 75pct over the interior to 55pct btwn Lake-O and the nrn
Bahamas...confirmed by PWATs arnd 1.60" at both KMFL/KEYW.

Remainder of the evening should be quiet as the light winds prevent
any further boundary interactions, while the drier air stifles any
coastal shower development. Will update fcst to remove
precip...remainder of the fcst is in good shape.


&&

.AVIATION...Thru 18/00Z.
Sfc Winds: Thru 17/12Z...S/SW AOB 3KTS. Btwn 17/12z-17/15Z...bcmg
S/SW 4-7KTS. Btwn 17/15Z-17/18Z...coastal sites bcmg E/SE 8-12KTS...
interior sites bcmg S/SE 7-10KTS.

Vsbys/WX/Cigs: Btwn 17/12Z-17/16Z...N of KISM-KTIX chc MVFR
shras/IFR tsras. Btwn 17/16Z-17/24Z...N of KISM-KTIX nmrs MVFR
shras/IFR tsras...S of KISM-KTIX sct MVFR shras/IFR tsras.

&&

.MARINE...
Surface ridge axis just north of the nrn Bahamas extending into the
NE GOMEX will maintain a very weak pgrad over the lcl Atlc
overnight. Light/variable sfc bndry lyr winds ranging from S/SW from
Cape Canaveral northward, to S/SW to the south. Seas AOB 2ft.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Update...Bragaw
Impact WX/Radar...Volkmer/Combs


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