Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 160230
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1030 PM EDT TUE APR 15 2014

.DISCUSSION...

TONIGHT-WED...RADAR WAS SHOWING SOME SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF A COOL FRONT THAT WAS PUSHING SLOWLY
ACROSS THE PENINSULA.  THOUGH THIS ACTIVITY WAS MAINLY OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...A SMALL SHOWER CHANCE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SLIDES THROUGH TOWARDS MIDNIGHT AND THE PRE DAWN HOURS.

SURFACE THETA E PROGS SHOW THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING SOUTH
FLORIDA ON WED...BUT WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WAY UP IN THE
OHIO VALLEY...WINDS WILL QUICKLY VEER AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL START A MODIFICATION OF THE COOLER/DRIER AIR
MASS.  ENOUGH DRY AIR SHOULD WORK INTO NORTHERN AREAS TO SCOUR OUT
CLOUDINESS FOR A WHILE ON WED...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE SHOW CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER LINGERING IN THE SOUTH HALF
AND THEN SPREADING INLAND FROM THE NORTH COAST WED AFTERNOON. THE
SHALLOW MOISTURE MAY EVEN PRODUCE SOME LIGHT RAIN AMOUNTS IN THE
SOUTH ON WED. WEAK COOL ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPS
BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE ON WED.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHALLOW LAYER OF COOLER/DRIER AIR WILL NOT BE ABLE TO SCOUR OUT
MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA AS WINDS VEER AROUND QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST ON WED.  THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
LINGERING BEHIND FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SOUTHERN
PENINSULA ON WED.  CEILINGS FL025-030 WILL BE MOST PREVALENT SOUTH
OF KISM-KMCO-KTIX...BUT WILL LIKELY SPREAD BACK INTO NORTHERN
SECTIONS WED AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT-WED...FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS ON WED.  NORTH WIND SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO ALL OF THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH WED.
NO CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.

AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR COASTAL WATERS
     FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE OUT 20 NM-
     COASTAL WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN
     INLET OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM FLAGLER BEACH TO VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE-WATERS FROM VOLUSIA BREVARD
     COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 20 TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR COASTAL WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET
     OUT 20 NM-WATERS FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO JUPITER INLET 20
     TO 60 NM OFFSHORE.

&&

$$

FORECASTS...LASCODY
IMPACT WEATHER/RADAR...ULRICH/WEITLICH






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