Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 220453 AAB

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1153 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.


06Z issuance...VFR conditions expected through the forecast under dry
northerly flow.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 907 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest marine discussion below.

MARINE...The small craft advisory has been canceled for the inshore
waters of northwest Florida and parts of southwest Alabama. A small
craft advisory remains in effect for the gulf coastal waters from
Destin FL to Pascagoula MS out to 60 nm including all of Mobile Bay
and the Mississippi Sound until 10 am Sat morning. 32/ee

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 719 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

DISCUSSION...See updated information below.

UPDATE...Have updated to make minor adjustments to current
temperature trends and also to make downward adjustments to wind
speeds based on latest observational trends. /29

MARINE...Have updated to make minor adjustments to wind speed trends
this evening based on latest observations. /29

00Z issuance...VFR conditions will continue for the next 24 hours.
Northerly winds near 10 knots at the coast to 5 knots further inland
will subside somewhat overnight. The northerly flow returns to near
10 knots close to the coast and 5-10 knots further inland by mid
Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 337 PM CDT Fri Oct 21 2016/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Saturday/...High pressure from the Mid-MS
River Valley to TX is forecast to expand eastward in the near term,
with its axis becoming positioned from TN to LA by Saturday. A much
drier and colder air-mass filters over much of the area tonight.
Under clear skies and winds beginning to de-couple => weaken,
overnight lows are forecast to plummet to well into the 40`s along
and north of I-10. Winds along the immediate coast look to remain up
enough to prevent the thermometer from lowering as much as the
interior. Still though, much cooler there with numbers ranging from
49 to 54. Area-wide, overnight lows settle some 7 to 10 degrees below
the climatological normal. Quite a difference. Under sunny skies on
Saturday, daytime highs in the lower to mid 70`s are very close to
what we normally expect for late October. /10

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Monday night/...A dry forecast
pattern will continue through Monday night. Deep layer high pressure
expected to persist through Monday. A deep trough digging down the
Eastern Seaboard is projected to allow a weak cold frontal boundary
to sag across the area late Monday night...possibly Tuesday morning.
Little impacts expected with this feature other than a brief
strengthening of the offshore wind component. Temperatures gradually
trend upward from lows in the upper 30s in the interior to around 50
along the coast Saturday night to lows ranging from the upper 40s to
low 50s in the interior to near 60 along the coast Monday night.
Mostly clear skies Sunday and Monday will allow temperatures to
climb into the upper 70s and low 80s during the afternoons. /08

LONG TERM /Tuesday Through Friday/...The ridge aloft flattens and
an upper level trough approaches from the West on Wednesday but the
energy shears North and South of the area Wednesday night into
Thursday keeping precipitation north and likely over the Gulf. By
Thursday night the ridge again begins to amplify ensuring a dry
forecast through Friday. Daytime highs should range from the upper
70s to mid 80s with overnight lows in the 50s to low 60s. Of
interesting note...October has been unusually dry and Pensacola and
Mobile have not yet received measurable precipitation this month. The
large scale pattern does suggest that we could possibly...not that we
necessarily will...but it`s possible...we could go through the month
of October without measurable rainfall. If this was to
occur...according to the climatic would only be the
third time this has accord at Mobile. Precipitation was not measured
during the month of October at Mobile in 1874 and 1978. It would be
the fifth time at Pensacola. Pensacola did not receive measurable
precipitation in the month of October in 1952...1963...1971...1978.
Stay tuned. /08

MARINE...A moderate to strong offshore flow persists across area
bays/sounds and the open AL/northwest FL Gulf waters thru Saturday
morning as a colder air-mass filters southward off the central Gulf
coast. With axis of surface high expanding across the southern
states over the weekend, winds are forecast to decrease with a net
reduction in seas thereafter. Next front makes passage late Monday
which maintains the offshore flow in its wake, before winds turn
more easterly in direction Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure
sets up from the Mid-Atlantic to the southeast. There is potential
for isolated to scattered showers and storms over the Gulf waters by
Wednesday within a better established easterly flow. /10


FL...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for FLZ201-203-205.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632-650-



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