Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 030953
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
453 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...
THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN BIG BEND AREA. GLOBAL
SPECTRAL MODELS DEPICT THE SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL LOW GETTING CAUGHT UP
IN THE WESTERLY FLOW AT THE BASE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BEING
EJECTED NORTHEASTWARD TO THE GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ALONG ITS PROJECTED PATH ARE NOT CONDUCIVE
FOR SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT. THE 2 AM EDT NHC TROPICAL
WEATHER DISCUSSION ONLY GAVE IT A 10% CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

CLOSER TO HOME...A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH WILL REMAIN DRAPED FROM EAST
TO WEST ACROSS OUR SW AL AND SE MS COUNTIES WHILE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO IN RESPONSE TO THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE ALOFT.  THE LOCAL IMPACT WILL BE BREEZY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS A MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF AND IS ENHANCED LOCALLY BY
THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD CAP CONVECTION TODAY BUT CAN`T RULE OUT AN
ISOLATED STORM OR TWO DEVELOPING ALONG THE AL AND FL COASTLINES
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY.  THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW ALONG
THE COAST WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING. MONDAY`S HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES AT
INTERIOR LOCATIONS WHILE LOW TO MID 90S WILL BE THE NORM NEAR THE
COAST.  HEAT INDICES AGAIN WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S AND LOW
100S WITH LOCAL PEAKS UP TO 106 DEGREES POSSIBLE. /08 JW

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE
REGION BUT REMAINS MODERATE ALONG THE COAST.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SHORTWAVE ENERGY TOPS WESTERN CONUS
RIDGE AND MOVES INTO EASTERN UPPER TROUGH...SHIFTING THE EASTERN
TROUGH WESTWARD A BIT. ALLOWING THE WESTERN RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED
UPPER HIGH (MEANDERING AROUND OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST/WESTERN MEX)
TO BUILD A BIT. WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING WEST...AN UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC BUILDS WEST A BIT...ALLOWING A
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEX TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED. WITH THE
ORGANIZATION COMES A MORE ORGANIZED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE LOWER MISS RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN STATES...AND
WEAKENING THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES (ALONG WITH
INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS). PRECIP H20 VALUES RISE ABOVE 2.25" BY
THE END OF THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ACCORDING TO GUIDANCE.

WITH THE UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING WEST AND THE UPPER RIDGE BECOMING LESS
OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE FA AND SURROUNDING AREAS...TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND SEASONAL BY WEDNESDAY. INCREASING MOISTURE LEVELS AND THE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING TO A MORE FAVORABLE POSITION...POPS ARE ON THE
INCREASE. HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE WETTER ECMWF AND NAM IN THIS
RESPECT...THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY...AS FEEL EVEN WITH THE TROUGH IN A
MORE FAVORABLE POSITION FOR UPPER SUPPORT...IT IS STILL EAST ENOUGH
TO STILL BE OF LIMITED ASSISTANCE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT ON)...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...DIGGING THE TROUGH A BIT AS IT PASSES. THE CHANCE OF RAIN
INCREASES TO AROUND TO A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. DAYTIME TEMPS FALL TO
AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS BEING
ABOVE...WITH THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEX THE
CAUSE.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...UPPER ENERGY DIGGING A TROUGH OVER THE
WEST COAST PUSHES THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE EAST...ALONG WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TEMPS RISE TO A BIT ABOVE AS THE
UPPER HIGH BECOMES MORE OF AN INFLUENCE ON THE LOWER MISS RIVER
VALLEY AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC UPPER TROUGH AND ITS GULF OF MEX SURFACE RIDGE SHIFT
WEST...LEAVING A MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF IN ITS WAKE. TEMPS
A BIT ABOVE SEASONAL RETURN...WITH AROUND SEASONAL CHANCE FOR RAIN AS
THE DANCE BETWEEN SYNOPTICS UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH) AND THERMODYNAMICS
(ABUNDANT INSTABILITY DUE TO A HOT/HUMID AIRMASS) CONTINUES.


&&

.MARINE...A WEST TO NORTHWEST LIGHT TO MODERATE WIND FLOW WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHWESTERLY
AND STRENGTHEN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES INTO THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF FROM THE SOUTHEAST. A LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST
TO WESTERLY WIND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL
WINDFLOW PATTERN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      96  72  94  75  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
PENSACOLA   95  75  93  77  91 /  20  10  20  10  30
DESTIN      96  77  91  79  90 /  20  10  30  10  30
EVERGREEN   98  71  97  73  94 /  05  05  10  10  30
WAYNESBORO  99  71  98  72  94 /  05  05  10  10  20
CAMDEN      98  70  98  73  95 /  05  05  10  10  30
CRESTVIEW   98  73  96  72  93 /  10  10  20  10  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

08/16



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