Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KMOB 302038
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
338 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...TONIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND CLEAR SKIES
TO BEGIN THE NIGHT...ANOTHER NIGHT OF BELOW NORMAL AND NEAR RECORD
TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED. THE ONLY FLY IN THE OINTMENT TO THE
FORECAST IS INCREASING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
MOVING INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER THIS
EVENING FROM THE WEST...WITH THE POTENTIAL OF THICKER CLOUD COVER
MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST MS BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. IF THIS EVOLUTION
HOLDS TRUE...CLOUDS WILL NOT IMPACT LOWS ALL THAT MUCH...EXCEPT FOR
MAYBE A FEW DEGREES WARMER IN SE MS. HOWEVER...IF CLOUD COVER
INCREASES QUICKER THAN EXPECTED...LOW TEMPS MAY BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE. AT THIS POINT...WILL STICK CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND SHOW NEAR RECORD TEMPS IN THE UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND WITH LOW TO MID 60S ALONG THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES. HERE ARE THE RECORD LOWS FOR THURSDAY MORNING...

RECORDS FOR JULY 31ST

MOBILE: 66/1984
PENSACOLA: 67/1936

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER ON THURSDAY WITH
MANY AREAS LIKELY SEEING PERIODS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. DESPITE
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY MOVING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AL/MS...RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES LOW. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SPRINKLES OVER SE MS...BUT NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THIS
POINT. WENT A FEW DEGREES BELOW MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS...WHICH
YIELDS UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF LOW TO MID 90S AS THE MAV
SUGGESTS. 34/JFB

THURSDAY NIGHT...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FA SWINGS AWAY IN
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH...THE SURFACE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE FA DRAWS BACK NORTH...ALLOWING DEEPER MOISTURE TO MOVE IN
FROM THE WEST. LOOKING AT THE MODEL SOUNDINGS...THIS IS MOSTLY IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS...LEAVING A DRY LAYER IN THE LOWEST 10K` FEET OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. TEMPS AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL...THOUGH WITH THE INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER...NOT QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS DAYS.

FRIDAY...MORE UPPER ENERGY BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN UPPER
TROUGH...BUT STAYS FAR ENOUGH AWAY FROM THE FA TO BE A NON-FACTOR IN
THE WEATHER. THE DAY DOES WARM ENOUGH TO FORM A WEAK-HEAT INDUCED
SURFACE LOW OVER THE FA. WITH TEMPS AT OR A SCOOCH ABOVE SEASONAL...I
BELIEVE IT.

FRIDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER ENERGY MOVES FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN
TROUGH...BECOMING CLOSE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP TO MOVE TOWARDS OR OVER
NORTHERN REGIONS OF THE FA BY SATURDAY MORN. THE FA REMAINS UNDER A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH...BUT NOT QUITE ENOUGH FOR PRECIP FORMATION OVER
MOST OF THE FA. TEMPS AROUND TO A BIT BELOW SEASONAL DUE TOT HE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER OF THE APPROACHING SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY ON)...THE LONG-WAVE TROF OVER THE
EASTERN STATES WEAKENS WHILE ADVANCING SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO A WEAK UPPER TROF OVER THE REGION BY TUESDAY.  THE
SURFACE-850 MB LOW NEAR THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY MAKES LITTLE
PROGRESS EASTWARD BEFORE DISSIPATING SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHILE THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND THEN DISSIPATE
BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE PATTERN OVER THE REGION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD LOOKS TO BE A ROUGHLY CONVERGENT FLOW BETWEEN
A SURFACE HIGH ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EASTERN STATES AND
A LARGE SURFACE HIGH DOMINATING THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. ABUNDANT DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN TRENDS
LOWER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY TO SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE VALUES AS THE
WEAKENING UPPER TROF ADVANCES SLOWLY EASTWARD. HAVE STAYED WITH
CHANCE TO GOOD CHANCE POPS THROUGH MONDAY THEN CHANCE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOLLOW FOR TUESDAY WITH THE DECREASING DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE
VALUES. /29

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. 34/JFB

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL
WEAKEN BY THURSDAY. A WEAK TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE WEAK...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND LOWS SEAS. A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. 34/JFB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      63  90  68  91  71 /  00  10  10  30  20
PENSACOLA   67  90  71  91  73 /  00  05  10  30  20
DESTIN      70  89  73  90  76 /  00  05  10  30  20
EVERGREEN   58  90  65  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  30
WAYNESBORO  61  89  62  90  68 /  00  10  20  30  30
CAMDEN      59  89  65  91  70 /  00  10  20  40  30
CRESTVIEW   56  92  64  92  71 /  00  05  10  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


34/16/29




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