Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 250955
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
455 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE...A TROUGH
CONTINUES TO DIG ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...A
WEAK COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND
WILL MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHWARD BEFORE WASHING OUT TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE WEAK TROUGH ALOFT AND THE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA AND ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE BEACHES.
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. ONLY
ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AS A DRIER
AIRMASS MOVES INTO NORTHERN ZONES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 MPH IN ADDITION TO FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE
COAST. /13

(SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...WEAK TROF ALOFT PERSISTS BUT MOVES
SLIGHTLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND UPPER RIDGING INCREASES SLIGHTLY
OVER OUR AREA FROM THE WEST. THE DISSIPATING SFC BOUNDARY BECOMES LESS
DEFINED...BUT STILL PERSISTS THROUGH SUNDAY. WITH THE SLIGHT RIDGING
ALOFT...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE REDUCED A LITTLE OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN
WE WILL BE LOOKING MORE AT A CLIMATOLOGICAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALSO...WITH THE
UPPER RIDGING SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S FOR MOST LOCATIONS (BUT NEAR 90
AT THE BEACHES). SATURDAY LOW TEMPS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER
70S OVER INTERIOR COUNTIES TO THE UPPER 70S COASTAL.

&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...DURING THE EARLY PART OF NEXT
WEEK THE UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
COUNTRY...ALLOWING A COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE FCST AREA
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND LIKELY PUSH SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA AND
OUT OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A INCREASED CHANCE
AGAIN FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT...THEN LOW TO NO
RAIN CHANCES MID TO LATE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL
STILL LIKELY BE LOOKING AT MID 90S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS ON MONDAY FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...BUT MAX TEMPS DROP TO THE LOWER 90S TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH...BUT COOLING TO
NEARLY 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL (LOW TO MID 60S) FOR SOME INLAND
LOCATIONS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
12/DS

&&

.AVIATION (25.12Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. /13

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL GULF THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A LIGHT TO MODERATE
SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING ACROSS THE MARINE AREA. LITTLE CHANGE IN
SEAS IS EXPECTED. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
HOURS. /13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      91  74  91  75  92 /  40  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   89  76  91  78  92 /  40  20  30  20  10
DESTIN      87  78  87  80  87 /  40  20  20  20  10
EVERGREEN   92  71  93  73  93 /  30  20  30  10  20
WAYNESBORO  93  69  94  73  95 /  20  20  10  10  20
CAMDEN      93  70  93  73  94 /  20  20  20  10  20
CRESTVIEW   93  73  94  73  94 /  40  20  30  20  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$




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