Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 031040 CCA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
538 AM CDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.NEAR TERM /NOW THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...TODAY...A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
NE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...SOUTH OF A STALLED BOUNDARY
ALONG I65. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN TODAY BEFORE A
STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE FA TONIGHT. CURRENT RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING ISOLATED SHRA NORTHWEST OF I-65 INTO CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...SO FEEL THAT PULLING THE POPS FARTHER SOUTH THIS
MORNING IS PREMATURE. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN TODAY...HIGH TEMPS
A BIT BELOW SEASONAL EXPECTED....RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO AROUND
80.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE STRONGER UPPER DYNAMICS BRINGING IN A COOLER
AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS OF ABOVE SEASONAL
OVERNIGHT LOWS HAS ENDED FOR A WHILE. WITH CLEARING SKIES ADDING TO
THE COOLING...OVERNIGHT LOWS BELOW SEASONAL RETURN...RANGING FROM
LOW 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60 ALONG THE COAST. /16


.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...DRIER AND COOLER
WEATHER EXPECTED AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALOFT REMAINS ANCHORED OVER
THE EASTERN THIRD OF CANADA AND THE UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING SOUTHWARD OVER THE MIDWESTERN
STATES WILL CREATE A NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL BECOME
GUST AT TIMES ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PROPAGATING THROUGH THE LONGWAVE PATTERN IS PROJECTED TO DRIVE A
SECONDARY SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT PERIOD. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE
BUT COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW IT AND GUSTY WINDS WILL FOLLOW ALONG IT.
/08

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...DRY AND MILD WEATHER CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES GRADUALLY
WARM TO AROUND NORMAL AND HUMIDITIES CLIMB BY THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO CREATING A
SOUTHERLY,RETURN FLOW. ALOFT A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
AREA. /08

&&

.MARINE...A FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TODAY
BEFORE A STRONG SHORTWAVE SWINGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE PLAINS
PUSHES IT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN GULF TONIGHT. A STRONG
OFFSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS IN ITS WAKE. THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS REINFORCED
BY A POST FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH AND MOVING
ACROSS THE MARINE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. AS A
RESULT, A MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL THEN CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY.
/16

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  57  78  53 /  40  20  10   0
PENSACOLA   80  61  77  59 /  60  20  10   0
DESTIN      77  63  77  59 /  60  20  10   0
EVERGREEN   80  57  77  50 /  50  20  10  10
WAYNESBORO  78  52  77  52 /  20  10  10   0
CAMDEN      78  54  76  52 /  20  10  10  10
CRESTVIEW   81  59  79  52 /  60  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 PM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR GMZ630>635-650-655-670-675.
&&

$$

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