Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 290454
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1154 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE VCSH OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA OVERNIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VCTS ON SATURDAY. LIGHT WINDS BECOME
SOUTHEAST NEAR 8-10 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 932 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

UPDATE...HAVE GONE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI DUE TO LINGERING CONVECTION WHICH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT.  MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 558 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

AVIATION...
00Z ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR 4-6 KNOTS BECOMING LIGHT THIS EVENING THEN
INCREASING TO NEAR 8 KNOTS BY MIDDAY SATURDAY. /29

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015/

SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT]...TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY...AN UPPER LOW OVER THE FA MEANDERS AROUND OVER THE AREA FOR
THE FIRST 24HRS OF THE FORECAST. A SURFACE RIDGE STRETCHES WEST OVER
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...PUMPING IN MOISTURE OFF THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH A SHORTWAVE SWIRLING AROUND THE
EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW...RAIN EXPECTED OVER THE FA WILL BE
INCONSISTENT. EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA ARE EXPECTED TO SEE THE BEST
COVERAGE OF RAIN...AND WITH THIS...THE COOLEST TEMPS ON SATURDAY.
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA WILL SEE SIGNIFICANTLY SMALLER CHANCES OF
RAIN...WITH TEMPS CLOSER TO SEASONAL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER RIDGE STRETCHING WEST
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SEABOARD
HANGS TOUGH...AND IF ANYTHING...BUILDS WEST A BIT. THE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CONUS OPENS...WITH THE MEAN TROUGH IT IS SITTING IN SHIFTING
WEST...TO OVER THE OK/TX/AR/LA AREA BEFORE ORGANIZING INTO ANOTHER
CLOSED LOW. WITH THE RIDGE BECOMING MORE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
OVER THE FA...THE CHANCE OF RAIN DECREASES...WITH TEMPS RISING TO A
BIT ABOVE SEASONAL. MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH (1.5-1.9" DEPENDING
UPON THE MODEL)...SO HEAT INDICES RISE TO THE UPPER 90S FOR SUNDAY.
CHANCE OF RAIN STILL REMAINS HIGHEST OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FA.
ERIKA STARTS TO MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA...AND BEGINS TO MAKE ITSELF KNOWN WITH THE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST TO EAST.

LONG TERM [MONDAY ON]...(NO UPDATES FROM PREVIOUS SHIFT) THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MOVING NORTH-
NORTHWEST OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY...AND OVER
THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. IF THE FORECAST TRACK
KEEPS ERIKA TO OUR EAST...A GRADUAL DECREASE IN MOISTURE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM IS EXPECTED AS WINDS TURN BACK TO A
NORTHERN FLOW. SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ERIKA WILL
ALSO CUT DOWN OUR RAIN CHANCES. FOR NOW HAVE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF I-65 ON MONDAY...WITH NO RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST OF I-65. ISOLATED TO LOW END SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM...MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
MANAGE TO REACH THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY INLAND AREAS...WITH UPPER 80S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

MARINE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST INTO THE APPALACHIANS
THIS WEEKEND...RESULTING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
THE SURFACE HIGH REMAINS IN PLACE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
LITTLE CHANGE IN SEAS. MEANWHILE...ERIKA IS FORECAST BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER TO APPROACH THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA BY LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND LIFT NORTH NORTHWEST ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA ON MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      68  87  70  90  70 /  10  20  20  20  20
PENSACOLA   72  85  72  89  73 /  30  50  30  30  20
DESTIN      76  82  74  89  75 /  30  60  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   67  87  69  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
WAYNESBORO  66  87  66  90  68 /  10  20  20  20  10
CAMDEN      68  87  68  90  68 /  30  50  30  30  20
CRESTVIEW   69  85  69  91  68 /  30  60  30  30  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


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