Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 031137
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SHORT TERM [TODAY AND TONIGHT]...WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WITH SURFACE
VISIBILITIES LOWERING TO LESS THAN 1/4 OF A MILE FOR MOST AREAS WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY 9 AM THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FOR ALL AREAS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 9 AM CST THIS MORNING.
DENSE FOG WILL LINGER NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST POSSIBLY INTO THE LATE
MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON. WITH A CONTINUE FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF
COMBINED WITH SFC DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING TO THE LOWER 60S WIDESPREAD
DENSE FOG WILL LIKLEY REFORM OVER COASTAL AREAS EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN SPREAD WELL INLAND OVER MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA THROUGH EARLY WED
MORNING. WEAK UPPER RIDGE THAT MOVED OVER THE REGION IN THE LAST 24
HOURS WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION LATE TODAY AND
OVERNIGHT POSSIBLE LEADING TO SLIGHTLY BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ALSO OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD HELP SLOW THE GROWTH OF FOG DURING
THE EVENING. WITH THE BETTER RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS REGION TODAY THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE PRECIP WILL REMAIN RATHER LOW FOR ALL AREAS. AS
FOR TEMPS WILL LEAN TOWARDS THE CURRENT MAV GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
UNDERCUTTING THESE VALUES A DEGREE OR TWO MOSTLY SOUTHWARD NEAR THE
COAST. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 70S TO NEAR 80 FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS AND THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST DUE
TO THE COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE LOWER
60S FOR MOST AREAS. 32/EE

[WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY]...LARGE UPPER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD AS A UPPER SHORTWAVE
MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS APPROACHES THE REGION.
RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS LIKLEY TO CATEGORICAL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT ADVANCES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE RAIN WILL THEN TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY THURSDAY BEHIND THE FRONT.HIGH TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY NIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S TO MID 40S NORTHWEST OF I-65...AND FROM
THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50 SOUTHEAST OF I-65. /22

&&

.LONG TERM [FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY]...IT WILL BE COOL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND
WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINDER OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. WHILE IT
WILL BE DRY ON FRIDAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL
RE-ENTER THE PICTURE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE AND SHORTWAVES EXIT THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AND
TRAVERSE THE REGION. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE MORE
AVAILABLE.HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40 TO MID 50S
ON FRIDAY AND THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER 60S BY MONDAY. THE
LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S AND
THEN STEADILY CLIMB INTO THE LOWER INTO THE 40S FOR BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHTS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL SECTIONS. /22

&&

.AVIATION...03.12Z KMOB/KBFM AND KPNS TAF CYCLE...MOSTLY LIFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH 04.12Z. LOW STRATUS AND DENSE FOG WILL
BEGIN TO SLOWLY LIFT BY MID MORNING WITH CEILINGS REMAINING BELOW 1
KFT THROUGHOUT MOST OF TODAY. CEILINGS WILL DROP AGAIN THIS EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG FORMING NEAR THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING
SPREADING AND FORMING WELL INLAND LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 9 AM
CST AND WILL LIKELY BE REISSUED AGAIN FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY THU
MORNING. WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST INCREASING TO 8 TO 12 KT
LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT LOCAL BAYS AND
SOUNDS AND THE NEAR SHORE GULF WATERS THROUGH MIDWEEK. A LIGHT
SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THIS
MORNING THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH AND BUILD THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...LEADING TO A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW OVER THE MARINE
AREA THURSDAY THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS AND SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A BROAD SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS TO THE NORTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE LIKELY ON
THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT LATER IN THE WEEK.
32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      72  61  76  47  47 /  20  20  30  60  50
PENSACOLA   73  60  75  56  58 /  20  20  30  50  50
DESTIN      67  60  71  60  62 /  20  20  30  40  50
EVERGREEN   81  60  76  48  54 /  20  20  30  70  50
WAYNESBORO  75  61  76  37  41 /  20  30  30  80  50
CAMDEN      79  61  75  42  44 /  20  20  40  80  50
CRESTVIEW   76  60  76  58  60 /  20  20  30  50  50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR ALZ051>064.

FL...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR FLZ001>006.

MS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR MSZ067-075-
     076-078-079.

GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR GMZ630>635-
     650-655.

&&

$$


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