Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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000
FXUS64 KMOB 220936
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
436 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...HIGH AMPLITUDE MID TO UPPER
RIDGE AXIS LOCATED NEAR THE LA/TX BORDER THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
TO SHIFT EAST REACHING CENTRAL MS AND LOWER LA BY 12Z THU. AT THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED MOSTLY OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MS
RIVER VALLEYS WILL SHIFT EAST AND SOUTH SETTLING OVER THE TN RIVER
VALLEY AND CENTRAL GULF STATES BY 12Z THU. TO THE SOUTH TD 9 LOCATED
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WILL SHIFT EAST TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY
12Z THU LEADING TO A BETTER PRES/THERMAL GRADIENT GENERALLY OVER THE
NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES AND NORTHERN GULF BY 12Z THU...THUS
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR MUCH OF THE
CWFA FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE
SFC TEMPS SOMEWHAT THROUGH TONIGHT ALSO...THOUGH WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE STILL ON TAP FOR TODAY AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. AS FOR
TEMPS WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MAV AND MET GUIDANCE THROUGH TONIGHT
RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWFA AND THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S
FURTHER SOUTH TO THE COAST. LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE A TAD COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S FOR
MOST INLAND AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF THE I-10 CORRIDOR AND THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST. 32/EE

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...THIS MAY START TO SOUND LIKE
A BROKEN RECORD...BUT DRY AND QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST FROM THE END
OF THIS WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS WITH BELOW
NORMAL LOWS ARE EXPECTED THU-FRI AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE MIDWEST SOUTH TO THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THIS WEEKEND AS MID TO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL STATES BUILDS EAST. WEEKEND
HIGHS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT LOWS WILL STILL AVERAGE
NEAR NORMAL DUE TO A VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS.

THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...ALONG WITH SFC RIDGING...WILL MOVE
WELL EAST OF THE AREA BY MON-TUE OF NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL CLIMB IN
RESPONSE WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS. DESPITE
THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY REMAIN VERY DRY AND THIS WILL KEEP RAIN
CHANCES OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH TUESDAY. 34/JFB

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z ISSUANCE
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 23.12Z. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEAR.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT 4 TO 8 KNOTS
THROUGH 32.12Z. 32/EE

&&

.MARINE...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND NORTH COMBINED WITH TD
9 OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SHIFTING EAST OVER THE LOWER GULF WILL
HELP MAINTAIN A MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW OVER
THE MARINE AREA THROUGH THU...FOLLOWED BY A DEEPENING LONG WAVE TROF
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WHICH SHOULD HELP LIFT TD 9 TO THE
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY OVER THE FL PENINSULA BY THE WEEKEND OR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AS FOR TD 9 BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRI WITH THE GFS BECOMING MORE ROBUST WITH THE STRENGTH AND
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AS IT EVENTUALLY EMERGES INTO THE SE GULF AND FL
STRAITS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...WITH THIS PATTERN WE COULD SEE
EXERCISE CAUTION OR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS LATER THIS WEEK AND
POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND WHICH MOSTLY DEPENDS ON THE INTENSITY AND
LOCATION OF TD 9 BY LATE IN THE WEEK. BETTER SWELL MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BE LIKELY LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THIS SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH SHIFTS EAST. 32/EE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      80  48  75  47  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
PENSACOLA   79  52  75  51  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
DESTIN      75  55  74  57  75 /  00  00  00  00  00
EVERGREEN   77  41  73  42  76 /  00  00  00  00  00
WAYNESBORO  78  42  74  42  77 /  00  00  00  00  00
CAMDEN      76  41  73  42  76 /  00  00  00  00  00
CRESTVIEW   81  41  76  42  77 /  00  00  00  00  00

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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