Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 280516 AAC
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE TO AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1120 PM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT PACKAGE WITHIN TOLERANCES...WITH NO UPDATES
PLANNED ATTM.

/16

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

/16

&&

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT]...HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE REGION WILL ALLOW FOR THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DROP
OFF TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS RELAXING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR MS AND AL COUNTIES WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ON WEDNESDAY AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN TODAY WITH MID 60S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST MS AND LOW 60S FOR LOCATIONS FURTHER EAST. 07/MB

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES EAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A SHORTWAVE MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST. NO RAIN AS A DRY MID LEVEL WEST NORTHWEST FLOW LINGERS. AT
THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE AXIS MOVES EAST...BECOMING POSITIONED
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN GULF AND BRINGS LIGHT
WINDS TO THE LOCAL AREA. OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN CHILLY...BUT VERY
CLOSE TO SEASONAL WITH NUMBERS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INTERIOR TO
LOWER/MID 40S COAST. /10

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY]...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST
BREAKS DOWN ON THURSDAY WITH ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAKING PASSAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE POOLS OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ZONE AND WITH
FRONTAL ASCENT...A SMALL CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE IN THE
FORECAST FOR THURSDAY NIGHT. DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTHWARD ON FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES
TO WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT
THURSDAY...WITH READINGS LOOKING TO RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S
ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA...POSSIBLY BREAKING INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR A
FEW AREAS. TEMPERATURES FALL BACK TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BY FRIDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AS A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS COME INTO
PHASE WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.
MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION BY LATE
SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH AXIS...WHILE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FORMS IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN PORTIONS OF TX AND WESTERN
LA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE LEADING EDGE OF MOISTURE MAY REACH
FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWFA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT APPROACHES OUR FORECAST AREA.
FORECASTERS MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTING
LIKELY PROSPECTS OF RAIN ON SUNDAY AS DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIFT
OVERSPREAD THE REGION. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE
COLD FRONT AND AS THE MID LEVEL TROUGH AXIS PROGRESSES EASTWARD. A
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST...IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER...CONTINUES
EARLY NEXT WEEK CONTINUES AS MEDIUM RANGE SOLUTIONS DIFFER ON THE
NORTHWARD EXTENT OF NEXT ROUND OF MOISTURE SPREADING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF BY TUESDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN WILL BE POSTED IN
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY.

NEAR SEASONAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MODERATE TO
ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF FRONT. A RETURN TO BELOW NORMAL DAILY
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. 10/21

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. A TRANSITION TO LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF
A COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH EXERCISE CAUTION LEVELS POSSIBLE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OFFSHORE WATERS. 07/MB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      38  63  42  69  46 /  00  00  00  00  20
PENSACOLA   41  61  44  68  49 /  00  00  00  00  20
DESTIN      43  59  46  64  50 /  00  00  00  00  20
EVERGREEN   34  62  36  70  44 /  00  00  00  00  20
WAYNESBORO  35  62  38  71  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CAMDEN      31  60  35  70  42 /  00  00  00  00  20
CRESTVIEW   35  62  36  69  47 /  00  00  00  00  20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$






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