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000
FXUS63 KMPX 051055
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
455 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SHORT TERM CONCERN REMAINS WIND CHILL ISSUE OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHWEST CWA THIS MORNING. MODERATING TEMPERATURES AFTER THIS
MORNING.

WINDS ARE HAVING A TOUGH TIME DECOUPLING IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
STILL SOME TERRAIN AND LITTLE DOWNSLOPING ALONG I90 TOWARD
ALEXANDRIA.  EXPECT WINDS TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH WITH 3-5 MPH WINDS
AROUND 12Z. WIND CHILLS WILL BE RANGING AROUND 25 BELOW THROUGH
ABOUT 8 AM. WONT ISSUE ADVISORY FOR LIMITED AREA WITH RATHER
LIGHT/CALM WINDS SURROUNDING THIS AREA.

SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RETREATING HIGH.  THIS SHOULD
BE ABLE TO MIX ARCTIC AIR OUT OF THE AREA AND BRING SOME WARMER
TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN. MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE FROM THE
WEST LATE AFTERNOON/TONIGHT WITH THE WEAK WAVE THAT DROPS SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL LIMIT TEMPERATURES DROP TO THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH SLOWLY RISING TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO THE FAR WEST.
STILL MAY SEE A BIT OF A DROP TO THE EAST...BEFORE THE CLOUDS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOME MORE ESTABLISHED.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO LOOK FAIRLY
BENIGN...WITH ONLY FLEETING LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES AND MILD
TEMPERATURES.

THE WESTERN RIDGE/EASTERN TROUGH PATTERN THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
CONUS FOR SEVERAL WEEKS WILL BREAK DOWN OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW PATTERN BECOMING PREVALENT BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL YIELD WARMING TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAVE
THE AREA SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE PASSAGE OF WEAK/PERIODIC IMPULSES
OVER THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER DUE TO LOW
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION. AS EXPECTED IN THIS TYPE OF
REGIME...MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO APPEAR MODEST AT BEST...SO
SLIGHT CHANCE /20 PERCENT/ POPS ARE ALL THAT ARE WARRANTED.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 30S/40S...ANY
PRECIP SUNDAY AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE IN THE FORM OF LIQUID
RAIN.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS DEPICT 850MB
TEMPS IN THE +6C TO +8C RANGE. THEREFORE HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S
STILL LOOK TO BE REASONABLE...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WARMER DAY
OF THE TWO.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY...WITH THE
GFS PUTTING AN ABRUPT END TO THE WARMTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH. CONVERSELY...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE ZONAL
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AND THUS ALLOWS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK. WILL
THEREFORE NEED TO LEAN CONSERVATIVE WITH TEMPS DURING THE LAST
HALF OF NEXT WEEK UNTIL MODEL AGREEMENT IMPROVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 454 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR THRUT PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. WILL TURN WINDS MORE SOUTHWEST
THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL INCREASE A BIT OVERNIGHT FROM THE SOUTH.
NOT EXPECTING ANY GUSTS WITH SUSTAINED LESS THAN 10KTS
OVERALL...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KAXN THIS AFTERNOON. WILL BRING
SOME MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS ASSOCIATE WITH THE NEXT WEAK
SHORT WAVE. SOME CHANCE OF LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN LOWER LEVEL
SOUTHWEST FLOW. THIS WOULD NOT OCCUR AFTER 12Z FRI HOWEVER.

KMSP...
VFR CONDITIONS THRUT PERIOD. MID HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN OVERNIGHT. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...WILL BECOME SOUTH
BY 21Z.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. WINDS SW AT 10KTS.
SAT...VFR. WINDS NW AT 10KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS WSW AT 10G15KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...DWE