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000
FXUS63 KMPX 080613 AAB
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1213 AM CST SAT MAR 8 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CDFNT RESPONSIBLE FOR WINTRY PRECIP THIS MRNG
FOLLOWED BY FALLING TEMPS THIS AFTN HAS JUST ABOUT PUSHED THROUGH
ALL OF MN AND IS MAKING ITS WAY THRU CENTRAL-SRN WI. LOW CLOUDS IN
ITS WAKE WILL PREVENT MUCH IF NOT ANY SUNSHINE FROM REACHING THE SFC
BEFORE NIGHTFALL. A LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRES UNDER PROGRESSIVE NW
FLOW ALOFT WILL ALLOW FOR SKIES TO CLEAR OUT THIS EVE INTO THE EARLY
MRNG HRS WHILE CAA WILL BE IN FULL FORCE. SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH
PRES WILL KEEP MOCLR SKIES IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY TMRW...BUT
THE CONTINUED INFLUX OF COLD AIR WILL BRING A NOTICEABLE DROP OFF IN
TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  LOWS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN DROP
BACK INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...AND EVEN SOME SUB-ZERO LOWS IN
W-CENTRAL MN. FOR HIGHS ON SAT...DESPITE AMPLE SUNSHINE...CAA WILL
WIN OUT EASILY AS HIGHS WILL ONLY HIT THE LOW-MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 139 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MAINLY DRY THRU THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION
TUESDAY AS THE NORTHERN JET STREAM INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE PLAINS. THERE REMAINS ENOUGH
CONSISTENCY IN THE MODELS TODAY TO SLOWLY INCREASE THE CHC/S OF
PRECIPITATION LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY. AS WHAT HAPPENED EARLIER TODAY
WITH A STRONG JET STREAK MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST...THIS ALLOWED FOR ENOUGH LIFT/MOISTURE TO GENERATE LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL MN ALONG A COLD FRONT. THIS JET
INTERACTION IS SIMILAR TO TUESDAY/S SYSTEM SO IT NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE SOUTH OF THE REGION. PLUS IT SHOULD BEGIN
AS RAIN...AND SLOWLY TRANSITION TO WET SNOW AS COLDER AIR FILTERS
IN TUESDAY.

OTHER THAN TUESDAY SYSTEM...THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS
WILL BE TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SUN/MON AS 92H TEMPS RISE SIGNIFICANTLY
AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LATEST EC MODEL RUN HAS 92H TEMPS
FROM +12C IN SW MN...TO ARND +5C IN WC WI. THIS IS ROUGHLY 2.5C
HIGHER THAN IN PREVIOUS RUNS. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN WOULD BE THE
AMT OF CLD CVR/FOG POTENTIAL AS DEW PTS RISE INTO THE 30S. THIS
MAY SET THE STAGE FOR STRATUS ACROSS MPX CWA AS WARMER AIR RIDES
OVER THE DENSE SNOW PACK. THE ONLY AREAS THAT MAY BE WARMER THAN
WHAT MODELS ARE DEPICTING ARE IN WC MN WHERE THE SNOW PACK IS
MUCH LESS. BASED ON THESE CONSIDERATIONS...WILL HOLD ONTO
40S...WITH NEAR 50 ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE BUFFALO RIDGE IN WC/SW
MN. MONDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE W/NW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CST FRI MAR 7 2014

MVFR CIGS CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF WC WI AND PORTIONS OF EC MN.
DRIER AIR WILL ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT AND CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY
DISSIPATE. THEN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

KMSP...LOWER VFR CIGS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES LATER TONIGHT
AND VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SUN...VFR. WIND SW 5-15 KT.
MON...VFR. WIND W 10 KT.
TUE...VFR. MVFR/-SN POSSIBLE. WIND N 10 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...BORGHOFF