Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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000
FXUS64 KMRX 290810
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
310 AM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTLINE WHILE A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL PROVIDE A S-SW LOW LEVEL FLOW THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
NAM AND GFS SHOW ISENTROPIC LIFT AND MOISTURE ADVECTION SPREADING
INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 850 MB...AND REMAINING IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE THE RAP SHOWS VERY LITTLE MOISTURE THROUGH
TODAY. THIS DRIER SOLUTION IS GENERALLY PREFERED AS SATELLITE SHOWS
NO CLOUDS AT THIS LEVEL UPSTREAM. WILL BRING IN SOME CLOUDS IN THE
PLATEAU THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IT WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR A TRICKY TEMPERATURE FORECAST. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE WARMER GFS
MOS FOR HIGHS...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT THROUGH THE DAY WILL BRING WINDS UP TO 10-15 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 20-25 POSSIBLE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS AND CHANGES TO THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM...
SLIGHT RIDGING STAYS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA ON SUNDAY WHICH WILL
LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT
ENTERS THE MIX LATE IN THE DAY BRINGING DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN POST
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THINK THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN ALONG WITH THE
HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE TIED CLOSELY WITH THE FRONT, BUT
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL LINGER THROUGH MID WEEK AS MOISTURE AND POST
FRONTAL ISENTROPIC LIFT COULD COMBINE TO BRING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ON AND OFF THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK. TAKE A BIT OF A
BREAK MID WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH BRINGING IN
ABUNDANT MOISTURE FROM THE GULF AND ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS WITH
CHANCES OF RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             57  42  60  48 /   0   0   0  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  56  39  62  43 /   0   0  10  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       55  41  60  46 /   0  10  10  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              54  34  60  38 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/ABM



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