Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 040700
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
300 AM EDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
PARTICULARLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE MOUNTAINS AND PLATEAU.

OVERNIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ADVECTING IN
HIGHER MOISTURE. THE DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT SHOULD LIMIT FOG
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY FOR TRI-CITIES. IT WILL BE DRY OVERNIGHT
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN IN NE TN AND SW VA. OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND
WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY WITH CAPE/SHEAR
TO WORK WITH, SO AM EXPECTING GARDEN VARIETY THUNDERSTORMS TO BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVERAGE WILL ALSO
HELP TO BRING DOWN TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 80`S EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY AND ONLY LOW TO MID 80`S ON SUNDAY. MOST OF THE MOISTURE
WILL THEN MOVE OUT OF THE AREA, BUT ENOUGH WILL STICK AROUND
ALLOWING FOR ISOLATED DIURNAL CONVECTION THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECASTED TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SOME OF THE
BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE AREA WILL COME THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY DECENT
AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT, SO HAVE GONE AHEAD AND BUMPED
UP RAIN CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM. THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK TEMPERATURES
DROP BACK DOWN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             94  70  91  69 /  10  10  30  20
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  92  68  88  67 /  10  20  30  20
OAK RIDGE, TN                       93  68  89  67 /  10  10  30  20
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              89  64  84  64 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

AC/ABM



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