Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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FXUS64 KMRX 311831
AFDMRX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
231 PM EDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...
A INVERTED TROUGH AT THE SURFACE WITH A WEAK CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT
THE 850-700 LEVEL WILL BE OVER THE SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS
TONIGHT. THE RESULTING ISENTROPIC LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIP TO BLOSSOM OVER WESTERN NC TONIGHT...AND
SPREAD NORTH INTO NE TN AND SW VA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMOROW MORNING.
WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THIS AREA AFTER 06Z...CONTINUING THROUGH
18Z. FRI. EASTERLY UPSLOPE WINDS SHOULD KEEP HEAVIEST QPF AMOUNTS TO
OUR EAST. POPS DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LIFT EXITS THE
AREA...BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE A PRETTY MOIST COLUMN IN PLACE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE MAIN MID/UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL STILL BE TO
OUR WEST. WILL KEEP A LOW CHANCE POP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH LIGHT QPF.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
PERSISTENT TROUGHING WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW BY NEXT
WEDNESDAY. THIS MEANS THAT TEMPS WILL BE GRADUALLY CREEPING UPWARDS
DURING THE PERIOD...WHILE RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY DIMINISH. SO
EXPECT SCATTERED PRECIP THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...DECREASING DOWN TO ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. LATE IN THE PERIOD /THURSDAY/ WE
MAY BE SEEING THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM APPROACH FROM THE WEST...SO
HAVE REINTRODUCED SCATTERED COVERAGE OF PRECIP UNTIL THE TIMING
BECOMES A BIT MORE CLEAR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CHATTANOOGA AIRPORT, TN             66  84  68  85 /  30  40  40  40
KNOXVILLE MCGHEE TYSON AIRPORT, TN  65  80  66  83 /  40  50  30  50
OAK RIDGE, TN                       65  82  66  84 /  30  40  30  40
TRI CITIES AIRPORT, TN              64  77  61  81 /  60  70  40  40

&&

.MRX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&

$$

DGS/GC


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