Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 012038

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
238 PM MDT TUE SEP 1 2015



A broad and relatively cold storm system from the Gulf of Alaska
will end recent dry and warm weather across the Northern Rockies
beginning Wednesday. The leading edge of this storm system will
bring widespread rainfall across the region. A few thunderstorms
will also be possible ahead of the front. Southwest Montana and
Lemhi County in Idaho will remain fairly dry, warm, and windy
through Wednesday. The relatively cold air that will settle into
the area behind this system will allow fog to develop Thursday
night, particularly across northwest Montana and high valleys of
north central Idaho.

This weekend continues to look cool and wet. Models have trended
deeper with the upper level trough that is moving through. As it
stands now, this still would mean a strong low pressure system
with widespread rainfall over a 24 to 48 hours period this
weekend. One thing to keep an eye on is how much deeper this
trough becomes: If it continues to trend deeper, northwest Montana
may miss out on much of the precipitation, with more falling over
central and eastern Montana. Other than precipitation, mornings
will be cool, with lows in the mid 30s to low 40s for most


.AVIATION...Afternoon breezes are likely today through 02/0200Z,
but come Wednesday, the advancement of a cold front across western
Montana and central Idaho will generate widespread gusty winds
along and ahead of the cold front, lasting most of the day.
Stronger wind gusts of 30mph are likely at KBTM and KSMN through
03/0300Z. Precipitation will likely not be an issue to aviation
during this time, although it will be present at all terminals.


MT...RED FLAG WARNING from Noon to 9 PM MDT Wednesday Deerlodge/West
     Beaverhead...East Beaverhead.


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