Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 260916

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
316 AM MDT Tue Jul 26 2016

.DISCUSSION...An area of showers is moving through northern
Washington this morning in association with a shortwave that will
pass during today. Northwest Montana has above normal moisture,
which will add to the thunderstorm potential, so northwest Montana
will have the highest chances for thunderstorms. The rest of
western Montana and some of north central Idaho will also have
chances for storms but most of these are likely to be near the
divide, and in southwest Montana and Lemhi County Idaho. Wednesday
will have a very similar story as today with thunderstorms
possible in much the same locations.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to diminish starting
Thursday, through the rest of the week, with the exception of
areas around Glacier National Park, where lingering moisture and
instability will keep thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures
will will continue to run around normal the rest of the week for
most locations of western Montana and north-central Idaho.

Long range forecast models continue to show a low pressure system
moving on shore of the Pacific NW sometime this weekend. Timing of
this system actually impacting the Northern Rockies have changed
from run to run, so when/if we have any real break from the warm
temperatures remains up in the air. As it stands now, impacts from
the low pressure system will not be felt until Sunday or even
early next week. This outcome, in terms of timing, would make for
a very warm day on Saturday, by allowing for one more day of
heating under the building ridge of high pressure.


.AVIATION... Showers are currently passing through northern
Washington this morning with a shortwave that is forecast to move
through the region. Available moisture, daytime heating, and the
shortwave passage will all combine to bring high chances for
showers and thunderstorms to northwest Montana today. High
resolution model guidance show the widespread storms to be in
northwest Montana north of Flathead Lake. Thunderstorms are also
possible along the divide, in southwest Montana, and Lemhi County
Idaho. Majority of the storm activity will be over around 27/0300z
with KGPI and KBTM the most likely spots to be impacted by



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