Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 040603 CCA
AFDMSO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
259 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.DISCUSSION....Today will be another hot, dry day. Temperatures 10
to 15 degrees above average will be common. The hottest locations
will be in the canyons of north central Idaho, including Orofino,
Slate Creek, and Hells Canyon. Other than the hot temperatures, and
some breezy afternoon winds, a few high clouds with cumulus along
the Divide can be expected.

Independence Day will still be warm, but a few degrees cooler than
Saturday. Windier conditions are expected as the pressure
gradient tightens in advance of an approaching front. This front,
along with antecedent dry conditions, will continue to raise fire
weather concerns. During the evening, the front itself will push
west over the Divide, bringing showers, thunderstorms, and
easterly winds to northwest Montana. This front will progress to
the west overnight, causing Sunday to be a notably cooler day.
North central Idaho will largely miss out on the cool down, since
the front stalls out near the Montana/Idaho border. Despite Sunday
being cooler for Montana, temperatures will still be near average
for the time of the year, as we have been well above normal for
some time now. Thunderstorms will become an additional threat for
western Montana on Sunday, but models disagree on exactly how far
west the storms will reach. Currently, locations east of the
Bitterroot Range look to have the best shot for afternoon
thunderstorms.

Next week looks to remain warmer than average, around 5 to 10
degrees above average, but not as hot as the previous week.
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon thunderstorms are again possible.
Past mid-week, the ridge attempts to stay over the area, which
would mean continued mid-summer like conditions.


&&

.AVIATION...A weak shortwave will pass through northwest Montana
today with a few cumulus build-ups possible along the divide.
Wildfire smoke will again move into KBTM this morning with some
impact to visibility through the morning. The rest of north
central Idaho and western Montana will have a few passing clouds,
very warm temperatures, and high density altitudes. Normal
afternoon winds can also be expected today.

High pressure will begin to flatten on Saturday, so afternoon
winds will be stronger than previous days. There will also be a
shortwave to pass along the Divide late in the day of July 4th,
that will help kick off thunderstorms along the Divide, and
especially through Glacier National Park. Gusty easterly winds
will also develop through western Montana Saturday night into
Sunday.


&&

.MSO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...RED FLAG WARNING from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday East Lolo...
     Flathead/Glacier Park...Salish and Kootenai Reservation.

     RED FLAG WARNING from 6 AM to 9 PM MDT Saturday Kootenai.

ID...HEAT ADVISORY until 8 PM PDT this evening Lower Hells
     Canyon/Salmon River Region...Orofino/Grangeville Region.

&&

$$


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