Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 062029

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
229 PM MDT TUE OCT 6 2015

.DISCUSSION...High pressure today will maintain pleasant
conditions across the region through tonight. As the ridge
flattens tomorrow, forecast models are becoming more aggressive
with a weather system moving in under northwest flow with an upper
level jet nosing into the region. The moisture source associated
with this weather system has sub-tropical origins, which could
potentially lead to more widespread precipitation (and potentially
higher amounts) than is currently represented in the forecast.
Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night seems to be the main
focus for precipitation, with current indications showing central
Idaho and west central Montana seeing the highest potential for
precipitation. Otherwise, cloudy and cooler conditions can be

The high pressure ridge will re-build over the area Thursday into
early Saturday. This will return generally clear skies, light
winds and warming temperatures. Many locations will run 10 to 15
degrees above normal for this time of year.

Saturday night into Sunday, forecast models continue to show a
wet, cool and breezy system moving into the region. Again the
moisture source with this system is tied to sub-tropical moisture
and in fact, moisture from Tropical Storm Oho which is currently
located east of Hawaii. A period of moderate to heavy
precipitation is possible with this quick moving system,
especially for the higher terrain. Larger valleys will likely see
some downsloping effects due to strong west winds aloft. The
pattern is expected to remain somewhat cool and unsettled into
early next week.


.AVIATION...High pressure will remain over the region into early
Wednesday morning, maintaining generally light winds and generally
dry conditions. A weather disturbance expected Wednesday afternoon
will begin to increase mid level cloud cover across the area
tonight. By Wednesday afternoon, showers and low ceilings will
begin to increase, causing some obscurations of the high terrain.



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