Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Missoula, MT

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FXUS65 KMSO 262030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Missoula MT
230 PM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.DISCUSSION...Widespread minor thundershowers have developed this
afternoon across western Montana and central Idaho. So far, few
impacts have been observed with these tiny cells, aside from
lightning across Clearwater county in Idaho, and Lincoln county in
Montana. We do expect further development of thunderstorms through
the rest of the afternoon and evening, with a good chance for
storms to continue overnight. Again, lightning and brief, heavy
rainfall are the main threats expected.

The atmosphere should remain moist and again become unstable
enough to support scattered showers and a few thunderstorms

The air mass is expected to gradually dry Thursday and Friday,
after the current low pressure system shifts to the east and a north
to northwest flow develops. However, there should continue to be
enough instability in the afternoons to support a few showers,
especially over the terrain.

The bigger news may be the gradual warming later this week into
the weekend. By the weekend, temperatures may warm to 10 to 15
degrees above normal.

A more favorable thunderstorm pattern may develop Sunday into
early next week as a southwest flow develops over the northern


.AVIATION...Scattered thunderstorms, albeit small in size, are
developing due to increasing daytime instability. As they
continue to develop through late this evening, lightning and brief
heavy downpours are expected at all terminals through at least
27/0400Z. Lightning will decrease but not diminish, with nocturnal
convection possible for central Idaho and western Montana.
Another day of unsettled showery conditions will occur Wednesday,
with periods of lightning once again posing a threat to aviation
operations late in the day.



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