Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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585
FXUS64 KOHX 230810
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
310 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today thru Mon)

An easterly wave axis will stretch from the northeastern Gulf to the
Carolinas this afternoon. This feature will be moving westward over
the next few days. The axis will be aligned n-s across the mid state
tonight and then shift west of the area and weaken by Monday.
Meanwhile, an upper high will exist across the Great Lakes region
but wont influence a trend toward increasing heights until Monday.
We will see low pops today and Sunday, and no pops on Monday. Rain
chances would be higher but "Maria" is hogging much of the moisture.
"Maria" is expected to track to the east of Grand Bahama today and
then get as close as 100-200 miles east of the Ncar coast on
Tuesday. So, slight chance of showers and tstms for today and again
on Sunday.

For the near term temps, the lowering mid/upper level heights do
not appear to translate downward all that well. 850 mb temps are
still rather high and we will see highs in the lower 90s, west of
Plateau, once again today. Highs will back down a degree or two
for Sunday and Monday but still a good 7 to 10 degrees above
normal. Overnight mins will generally be in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...
(Tue thru Fri)

Model discrepancies continue about sfc frontal passage timing and
associated moisture accompanying sfc frontal passage mid work week.
Thus, will lean toward the more consistent run to run EURO solution.
EURO is also more in line with previous forecast reasoning. Thus
will continue to mention a slight chance of light showers and
thunderstorms during the day on Thu. Sfc and upper level ridging
influences should maintain their influential hold on the mid state`s
wx pattern resulting in dry conditions continuing Tue thru Wed
night. From Thu night thru Fri, progressive dry nwly flow aloft
along with building sfc ridging influences from the Midwest/Rockies
behind above mentioned sfc frontal passage will move into the region
resulting in dry conditions returning to our area.

As for temps, they will remain seasonably mild until Thu Afternoon.
Highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, lower 80s Cumberland Plateau
Region. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s, lower 60s Cumberland
Plateau Region. Sfc frontal passage will result in a CAA pattern
becoming established across our area from the northwest with
afternoon high temps much closer to seasonably normal values Thu
afternoon into Thu night. As sfc riding influences become even more
established across our region, highs on Fri will be more fall like
and average 5 degrees or so below seasonal normal values. Highs on
Fri afternoon will be mainly in the lower 70s, around 70 Cumberland
Plateau Region.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Fog still looks to develop overnight, with conditions more likely
at KCKV, KCSV, and KMQY. KBNA may still see fog as well, but
models have been backing off a bit for KBNA, so removed MVFR fog
mention for now. Otherwise, expecting VFR cigs and mainly
northeast winds around 5 knots during the day Saturday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      91  68  89  68  88 /  10   0  20  10  10
Clarksville    91  67  88  66  87 /  10   0  20  10  10
Crossville     85  64  84  65  84 /  20   0  10  10  10
Columbia       91  66  88  65  88 /  20   0  20   0  10
Lawrenceburg   89  65  88  65  87 /  20   0  20  10  10
Waverly        89  67  87  66  86 /  10   0  20   0  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........31



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