Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 211128
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
628 AM CDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Heat Advisory covering most areas west of the Plateau has been
extended through Saturday. A strong upper ridge will remain in
place, resulting in high temps mainly in the mid 90s. Heat index
values will peak in the 100-106 range each afternoon. This is
marginal based strictly on our 105 criteria, but it seems prudent
to keep the headline going for this first significant heatwave of
the summer. Lows tonight will be muggy, in the low to mid 70s.

An isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out today, as we have
seen each of the past few days. With such limited coverage, we
will not mention storms in the forecast, except for parts of the
Plateau where several models show isolated coverage. Thunderstorm
coverage looks a little greater Saturday as cap weakens slightly,
so going with 20-30 percent in forecast.

By Sunday, the ridge will be weakening and a front will be
dropping across the Ohio Valley. The approach of the boundary
will bring more clouds, increasing thunderstorm chances, and
less heat. Showers and storms will become likely Monday into
Monday evening as the boundary moves into Mid TN.

Looking ahead, the boundary will stall just south of Tn. We will
have a break from the heatwave with near normal temperatures next
week. Highs will average in the upper 80s to around 90. The
proximity of the front and a few possible disturbances moving
around the periphery of the upper level high will bring at least
small chances for thunderstorms each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A high pressure area, both surface and aloft, will keep VFR
conditions in place for most of the forecast period--except late
at night and early in the morning, when patchy BR will produce
a mix of MVFR and IFR conditions at CKV, MQY, and CSV.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR Bedford-
Macon-Marshall-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Sumner-Trousdale-
Wilson.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday FOR Cheatham-Davidson-
Dickson-Giles-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Lawrence-Lewis-Maury-
Montgomery-Perry-Stewart-Wayne-Williamson.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........19



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