Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 161308
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
808 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...

COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF CKV WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WITH LIGHTNING NOTED SE OF CKV.
ADDED MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO GRIDS AND ZONES FOR TODAY.
ACTIVITY REMAINS FAIRLY ISOLATED SO WILL KEEP SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR NOW. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

SHAMBURGER


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 620 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

UPDATE...FOR AVIATION.

AVIATION...
12Z TAFS...PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING. A FEW -SHRA WILL OCCUR...BUT COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. CIGS WILL IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
NORTH WINDS AROUND 6KT BRING DRIER AIR. FOR TONIGHT...CLEARING
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG TO
DEVELOP. BNA IS LIKELY TO STAY VFR...WITH CKV DOWN TO MVFR.
AS USUAL...CSV COULD GO SUDDENLY TO LIFR BEFORE DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

13

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 342 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014/

DISCUSSION...

MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS.  THE FRONT THAT WAS
PROGGED TO BE THROUGH THE STATE BY THIS TIME TONIGHT...IS CURRENTLY
DRAPED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SW INTO ARKANSAS.  WEAK LIFT AND
LIMITED MOISTURE ARE HELPING TO DEVELOP LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
PERSIST INTO THE DAY TODAY...AND AS WE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...PICK UP
SLIGHTLY IN INTENSITY.  RAIN WILL LIKELY BE LIGHT ENOUGH TODAY TO
BARELY REGISTER IN ANYONE`S RAIN GAUGE.  A FEW SPOTS MIGHT SEE UP TO
A TENTH OF AN INCH AND ONE OR TWO SPOTS IN OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES
MIGHT HEAR A BRIEF RUMBLE OF THUNDER...BUT IN WHOLE...THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH TODAY WITHOUT ANY GREAT CONSEQUENCE.

AS WEDNESDAY ROLLS AROUND...THE UPPER FLOW IS STILL EXPECTED TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY.  IF YOU`RE A FREQUENT VISITOR TO THIS
DISCUSSION YOU KNOW THAT NWLY FLOW ALOFT IS OFTEN UNPREDICTABLE AND
ANYTHING THAT SPAWNS UPSTREAM CARRIES THE POTENTIAL TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE STATE.  FOR NOW...WHILE MODELS ARE TRYING TO DEVELOP
SOMETHING OVER MISSOURI BOTH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IT
DOESN`T LOOK LIKE ANYTHING SHOULD EFFECT US ACROSS THE MID-STATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT STILL LOOK TO BE DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES WARMING BACK TOWARD NORMAL...MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE
DEGREES WARMER THAN NORMAL BY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
OVER.   MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY BE ON THE INCREASE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...AND THIS IS AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM PROGGED FOR
SUNDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.  MODELS HAVE DIVERGED SLIGHTLY REGARDING
THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE MAIN DIFFERENCES DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT...AND WHETHER OR NOT A SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP CLOSER TO
HOME.  THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION...AND WHILE I`M NOT READY TO THROW MY HAT IN THAT RING...A
SURFACE LOW CLOSER TO THE STATE COULD MEAN A LITTLE MORE CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION.  WILL INCREASE POPS IN THESE TIME FRAMES FOR THE TIME
BEING...BUT WITH THE LACK OF SURFACE LOW IN THE EURO...WILL REFRAIN
FROM ANY HWO MENTION AND JUST MONITOR ATTM.

ANOTHER ITEM OF NOTE ARE THE TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST.  DUE TO THE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT IN MODEL
SOLUTIONS PERTAINING TO THE LATE-WEEKEND FRONT...THIS LENDS SOME
CREDIBILITY TO THEIR AGREEMENT OF USHERING IN MUCH DRIER AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

UNGER

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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