Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 172353
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
553 PM CST Sat Feb 17 2018

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current storm system to continue pulling east with rainfall ending
from west to east this evening. Aft 00z will only include 20-30 pops
along the Plateau. Otw, a sfc high will build in from the TX/OK area
but current dewpoints over there are in the 30s and 40s. The low for
tonight, with gradual partial clearing, will be in the 30s. With all
the residual low level moisture, patchy fog is expected. Dewpoint
depressions are not exceptionally low tonight according to the model
data, but low values will kick in aft 03z. Will thus continue with
the mention of patchy fog. Will opt to include a pre evening
grouping to address the departing shower activity.

On Sunday, winds will turn easterly as the sfc high moves east of
the area by afternoon. Heights rebound nicely so under a partly
cloudy sky, temps will warm well into the 50s to near 60. A moisture
axis will spread northward Sunday night into Monday, bringing a
round of light shower activity. Precip is scattered for the most
part so pops will be on the low side.  The western Atlantic ridge
will strengthen by afternoon with some ridge axis extension toward
the northwest. So, even warmer on Monday with highs in the upper 60s
to mid 70s.

IN the ext fcst, a cold front will strengthen and stretch across the
upper midwest sw through TX on Tuesday. This feature will move
across the mid state area on Wednesday and then slow down. So, pops
to increase Wednesday through Thursday. After this, the deep
southwesterly flow will remain with another system on approach over
the weekend. QPF totals during the extended period, Tues through Sat
look like they will range from 1 to 3 inches across the area.

For the ext temps, Tuesday will be the warmest day, just in advance
of that aforementioned cold front. Highs will be in the 70s area
wide, and maybe even an 80 degree report or two. Not quite as warm
behind the fropa but still appreciably above normal as a deep
southwesterly quasi-heightened ul flow continues. The mild damp
pattern will last at least through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Cigs ranging from MVFR to LIFR at airports this evening will clear
out overnight with SKC returning. However, this will lead to fog
formation with MVFR/IFR vis and possibly lower towards sunrise.
Light west winds this evening will become northerly overnight then
east/southeast on Sunday.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........Shamburger



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