Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 021924
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
224 PM CDT MON MAY 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO WORK EAST AS WE
GO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE COULD BE A STRONG STORM OR TWO
OVER EASTERN AREAS AND ALONG THE PLATEAU. FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED
DOWN THROUGH MIDDLE TENNESSEE WITH TEMPS IN THE 70`S ALONG THE
PLATEAU AND IN THE 50`S WEST OF THERE. EXPECT TO SEE SOME RECOVERY
IN TEMPS WEST OF PLATEAU DURING THE AFTERNOON ONCE RAIN HAS PUSHED
EAST. FRONT WORKS INTO EASTERN TENNESSEE TONIGHT BUT THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SOME TRAILING SHOWERS DURING THE EVENING THAT WILL END
FROM THE WEST. COULD STILL BE A FEW SHOWERS IN THE UPPER
CUMBERLAND TUESDAY AS FRONT WORKS INTO CAROLINAS WHILE UPPER
TROUGH HANGS BACK. UPPER TROUGH SHARPENS TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM DOWN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS AND INTO TENNESSEE DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THINK WE WILL SEE SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A CONCENTRATION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS EASTERN AREAS AND IN THE UPPER CUMBERLAND.
UPPER TROUGH PULLS EAST ON THURSDAY BEING REPLACED BY UPPER RIDGE
FROM CENTRAL PLAINS LATTER PART OF WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.
CENTRAL PLAINS CYCLONE ROLLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY BRINGING
A RAIN CHANCE TO THE MID STATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. TEMPS WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK BUT WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL THIS WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.CLIMATE...

...5TH DRIEST APRIL IN NASHVILLE...AND THE DRIEST SINCE 1992...

NASHVILLE EXPERIENCED ITS DRIEST APRIL SINCE 1992 AND THE 5TH
DRIEST ON RECORD. RAINFALL RECORDS FOR NASHVILLE DATE BACK TO
1870.

FIVE DRIEST APRIL`S ON RECORD:
1986...0.52
1915...0.72
1992...0.77
1987...1.03
2016...1.12

RAINFALL FOR APRIL 2016 TOTALED 1.12 INCHES WHICH IS 2.88 INCHES
BELOW NORMAL.THE GREATEST RAINFALL IN A 24 HOUR PERIOD WAS 0.68
INCH ON MARCH 31ST AND APRIL 1ST.

THE TEMPERATURE AVERAGED ABOVE 3.4 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN NASHVILLE
FOR APRIL. THE AVERAGE HIGH WAS 74.6 DEGREES AND THE AVERAGE LOW
WAS 50.2 DEGREES. THERE WERE NO TEMPERATURE RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN
IN APRIL.

THERE WERE 3 DAYS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN APRIL.

THE AVERAGE WIND SPEED WAS 7.0 MILES AN HOUR. THE FASTEST GUST WAS
49 MILES AN HOUR FROM THE SOUTH ON THE 11TH.

THERE WERE 7 DAYS WITH FOG. NO DAYS WITH DENSE FOG.

NO TORNADOES OCCURRED IN TENNESSEE DURING THE MONTH OF APRIL 2016.
THE LAST TIME THERE WERE NO TORNADOES IN THE MONTH OF APRIL IN
TENNESSEE WAS IN 2005.


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF DISCUSSION.

-SHRA/-TSRA TO AFFECT CKV THROUGH 19Z...BNA THROUGH 20Z..AND CSV
THROUGH 00Z THIS AFTERNOON AS UPPER WAVE MOVES ACROSS REGION.
PREDOMINATE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL PRECIP ENDS WHEN MVFR/VFR
CAN BE EXPECTED. OVERNIGHT...PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
ALLOW FOR IFR CIGS/VIS TO RETURN TO CSV. LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT CKV/BNA...AND LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY THEN NORTHWESTERLY AT CSV.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
NASHVILLE      54  71  50  72  46 /  40  10  10  30  20
CLARKSVILLE    51  67  48  69  44 /  20  10  10  30  10
CROSSVILLE     54  67  47  64  42 /  70  20  20  50  30
COLUMBIA       53  71  49  72  45 /  40  10  10  30  10
LAWRENCEBURG   54  71  49  72  46 /  40  10  10  40  20
WAVERLY        51  70  49  72  46 /  20  10  10  20  10

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION........55/SHAMBURGER
LONG TERM..................01/BOYD


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