Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 281131
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
631 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

It was a muggy early morning with temperatures in the upper 60s
to lower 70s. Variable cloudiness was observed across Mid TN. A
couple of small showers lingered around Carthage and Lafayette.

For today, an upper level low pressure will lift from the Central
Plains to the Great Lakes as a tailing, weakening trough axis
lifts across the Tn Valley and Oh Valley regions. This axis will
bring a band of moisture across Mid Tn, resulting in mostly cloudy
skies with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Coverage of
showers and storms will be greater than yesterday with pops around
50 percent across the area. A brief strong storm cannot be ruled
out, but forecast soundings show modest instability. Relatively
greater instability will be over the Plateau this afternoon with
capes over 1000 j/kg, so that may be the area to watch for brief
strong storms. The extensive cloud cover will keep temperatures
lower today than yesterday for most locations, with highs in the
lower 80s area wide.

Isolated showers or storms will linger into this evening,
especially for the east half. Otherwise, tonight will be partly
cloudy with lows in the 60s, as the trough axis moves off to the
northeast and an upper level ridge strengthens.

For Sunday through Memorial Day, warm, humid summer wx will be in
place as a pressure ridge spreads over the area. The ridge will
be of moderate intensity, so isolated showers or storms are
expected to develop in the heat of the afternoon each day (20
pops). Lows will be in the 60s, with highs from the mid 80s to
around 90.

The same summer like pattern will continue Tuesday into Wednesday.
An approaching trough will bring increasing moisture and
instability late week. Models are showing a pretty good chance for
showers/storms by Friday, followed by a shot of cooler air for
next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

A weak low pressure are will produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the Mid-State today, especially along and west
of Interstate 65. Ceilings will be mainly at or above 10k feet,
with VFR conditions expected to prevail through 09Z. After 09Z,
expect patchy fog to develop, with MVFR visibilities developing in
BR. A brief period of IFR conditions is also possible at CSV
around sunrise Sunday.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......13
AVIATION........19


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