Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 061552
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1052 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015

.UPDATE...

MINOR CHANGES TO THE SHORT TERM THIS MORNING. UPDATED TEMPS AND
SKY COVER TO MATCH CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. SKIES ARE TRYING TO
CLEAR OUT A BIT IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...BUT FURTHER WEST
MORE CLOUD COVER IS TRYING TO MOVE IN AS WELL AS DEVELOP SOME
CONVECTION. MODELS DO TRY TO PLACE CONVECTION OVER THE CWA LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT LOOKS ISOLATED STILL SO LEFT POPS ROUGHLY
THE SAME. RAISED PORTIONS OF THE WEST TO CHC POPS AS CONSENSUS
SHOWS THAT AREA HAS A SLIGHTLY HIGHER SHOT FOR PRECIP. OTHERWISE
KEPT THE FORECAST AS IS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 441 AM CDT MON JUL 6 2015/

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE STATIONARY FRONT FROM CROSSVILLE UP TO PADUCAH WITH UPPER
LOW EASTERN KENTUCKY CONTINUING TO LIFT EVER SO SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST. MOISTURE NEVER GOT SCOURED OUT SOUTH OF SURFACE
BOUNDARY SO EXPECT ISOLATED POP UP SHOWERS AND TSTORMS AGAIN TODAY
AS TROPOSPHERE REMAINS UNSTABLE. UPPER RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD IN
OVER THE SOUTHEAST NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH BELT OF WESTERLIES NORTH
OF MY CWA WITH SURFACE FRONT STRETCHING FROM SOUTHERN PLAINS TO
GREAT LAKES REGION WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS CONCENTRATED NEAR
SURFACE BOUNDARY. BOUNDARY AT TIMES SAGS DOWN CLOSE ENOUGH TO
INCREASE SHOWER AND TSTORM CHANCES HERE IN THE MID STATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH. TEMPS NOT TOO FAR OFF
WHAT WE MIGHT EXPECT FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BUT DO WARM ABOVE
CLIMO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

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