Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 231238
AFDOHX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
738 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 12Z TAFS

&&

.AVIATION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO MIDDLE TN FROM THE NW LATER TODAY
BRINGING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. INTRODUCED VICINITY STORMS AT CKV AROUND 18Z. WILL HAVE
TO SEE HOW CONVECTION MOVING INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY TRACKS THIS
MORNING TO INCLUDE SOMETHING MORE THAN VICINITY. LATEST HRRR IS
FORECASTING REDEVELOPMENT OF A LINE OF STORMS LATER THIS MORNING
THAT FALLS APART BEFORE IMPACTING NW MIDDLE TN. REGARDLESS IF THAT
LINE DOES FALL APART CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS BY 22Z FOR BNA AND CSV. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO BE OUT
OF THE NW AROUND 00Z TODAY FOR CKV AND BNA...AROUND 02Z FOR CSV.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WITH CIGS FALLING
TO 3KFT OR LESS BY MIDNIGHT AND DECREASING VIS FOR CKV AND BNA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 344 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014/

DISCUSSION...
UPPER LOW IS LOCATED NEAR NEW ORLEANS THIS MORNING WITH AN
INVERTED TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN TN.
MEANWHILE...SFC BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM LAKE ERIE SW THROUGH MO.
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME MORE ENHANCED AS WE MOVE
THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE OUR
WAY AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. 18Z AND 00Z DEPICTIONS OF
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW REVEAL A DIVERGING FLOW ALOFT AND THIS WILL
COUPLE WITH ELEVATED LEVELS OF CURVATURE AND SHEAR JUST TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE DIVERGING FLOW. LATEST HRRR IN SUPPORT OF LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST WHICH IS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE INVERTED TROUGH.
THEN...BY MID AND LATE AFTERNOON...THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL KICK OFF SOME CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF MIDDLE TN. ALL IN ALL...POPS OF 30-50 PERCENT LOOKS REASONABLE
FOR TODAY. CAPES WILL REACH 2000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON SO CANNOT
RULE OUT SOME STRONG STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS WELL.
SO...AGAIN TONIGHT...A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE IN
THE FORECAST AS THE FROPA OCCURS AND PVA WORKS ACROSS OUR AREA.
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE A SLOW MOVER. THUS...LOW POPS WILL BE
INCLUDED FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.

FOR THE NEAR TERM TEMPS...ANOTHER WARM TO HOT DAY TODAY AS THE FRONT
PRESSES DOWN SLOWLY FROM THE NORTH. NOT NEARLY AS HOT ON THURSDAY AS
THE REPLACING AIRMASS FEATURES A REASONABLY IMPRESSIVE THERMAL
TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 60S. LOWER 60S FOR
LOWS ARE EXPECTED THU NT.

IN THE EXT FCST...UPPER TROUGHING WILL PULL EAST AS RIDGING ATTEMPTS
TO EXPAND EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S.. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE WEAKER BUT JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO MOVE
OUR WAY THIS WEEKEND. AS THE FRONT REACHES THE MID STATE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT...UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN U.S. IS EXPECTED TO
AMPLIFY. LOOKS LIKE WE COULD SEE SOME APPRECIABLE RAINFALL FOR
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON
ARE RATHER IMPRESSIVE SO ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG STORMS LOOKS
POSSIBLE.

A FAIRLY POTENT SFC HIGH FOR LATE JULY WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. THERMAL TROUGHING LOOKS IMPRESSIVE WITH 850 MB TEMPS OF
AROUND 12C. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S WITH LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED MON THROUGH WED OF NEXT WEEK. WILL BE
UNDERCUTTING THE MEX NUMBERS AS THE EURO SOLUTION IS EVEN STRONGER
WITH THE THERMAL TROUGHING.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

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