Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Nashville, TN

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FXUS64 KOHX 300945
AFDOHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
445 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Upper high remains in place across the mid south for today. There is
a weakness in the ridge that stretches from the Gulf of Mexico
northeastward along the Carolina coast. Some tropical activity is
indicated over the Gulf the next few days but these systems should
stay off to our east. Thus, high pressure at the sfc will remain
to our north and will provide a drier east and northeasterly low
level fetch. All in all, should see mostly dry weather for the
midstate today and tonight.

Pops will increase slightly for Wednesday afternoon and into the
overnight hours. The upper high will give way to an approaching
upper shortwave and associated frontal boundary. The actual fropa
will occur early Thursday but the tropical systems off to our east
may act to prevent much in the way of moisture return. Nevertheless,
pops for Thursday will include 40% east...20-30% elsewhere.

For the near term temps, hot weather to continue the next couple of
days. We will see a hint of relief by Thursday afternoon as some
drier air works in behind the aforementioned fropa.

In the ext fcst, drier air and lower dewpoints will prevail.
Afternoon capes will be minimal so we are looking at a dry extended
period. Southerly low level return will set up by late in the
extended, but upper level ridging will keep pops out of the fcst.

For the ext temps, looks like mid to upper 80s with noticeably lower
rh values. Overnight minimums will be pleasant with 60s for much of
the period...perhaps even some mid to upper 50s for Saturday morning
when some low level sfc ridging sets up.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF DISCUSSION.

Fog bouncing vsbys around at csv expected to clear by 13z this
morning.

Upper high remains across the region today/tonight while high
pressure at the surface to north provides a bit drier northeast
wind. Overall very little convection is expected thus have left
out. Fog once again possible overnight...especially csv...largely
in the MVFR range.

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION......21
AVIATION........07



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