Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 021759
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
159 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
CROSSES THE TRI-STATE TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN REMAINS OVER THE REGION INTO FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH FRIDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WITH MLCAPES 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT A WEAKLY SHEARED/CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT. LFC/LCL VALUES FAIRLY HIGH AND WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
TRIGGER UNTIL THE COLD FRONT LATER THIS EVENING...MOST OF THE
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS INLAND OR ALONG THE THERMAL TROF AND SEABREEZES.

TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WITH A FEW 90S AROUND
THE NYC METRO. ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREE RISE IS EXPECTED AWAY
FROM THE COAST. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE 90S...NEAR 100
FOR NYC METRO. DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S MAKING FOR
VERY HUMID CONDITIONS. HEAT

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENT FORMATION AT ATLANTIC
BEACHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REGION WILL BE IN THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF 80-90 KT 300 HPA
JET...PASSING OF STRENGTHENING LOW-MID LEVEL JETS IN THE
EVENING...AND THE AREA UNDER DIFFLUENT FLOW IN THE MID
LEVELS...COUPLED WITH PRECIPITABLE WATERS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO
AROUND 2 INCHES...THEN HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IN ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM THIS EVENING. REFER TO HYDROLOGY
SECTION OF THE AFD FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

HOWEVER...WILL BE WORKING AGAINST DIMINISH CAPE WITH THE LOSS OF
SOLAR HEATING...WITH BEST DYNAMICS PASSING TO THE N...BELIEVE THAT
ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL RAPIDLY DIMINISHES DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AND IT WAS NOT ALL THAT HIGH TO BEGIN WITH.

700-500 HPA SHORTWAVES LIFTS TO THE N/E OF THE AREA TONIGHT...WITH
ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING FOR THINGS TO DRY OUT
LATE TONIGHT BEHIND THE SHORTWAVES.

FOR LOWS TONIGHT...USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE WITH NAM
2-METER TEMPERATURES...WITH VALUES FORECAST TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. FOR HIGHS WEDNESDAY USED A BLEND OF MIXING DOWN FROM
850-825 HPA PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS...WITH NAM 2-METER TEMPERATURES
AND A BLEND OF MAV/MET GUIDANCE. THIS YIELDS HIGHS AROUND 5-10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS SUNNY AND DRY. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE ON
THURSDAY...EXPECT HUMIDITY LEVELS TO INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY...PUSHING OFFSHORE SOMETIME SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...A FEW OF THE
MODELS WANT TO LINGER SOME PRECIPITATION INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. FOR NOW...DO NOT WANT TO RULE THIS OUT...SO WILL KEEP SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN FOR NOW.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BRINGING COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS TO THE REGION FOR
THE START OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED RIGHT ALONG THE COASTAL SECTIONS.  TEMPERATURES THEN FALL
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TODAY AND PASSES THROUGH TONIGHT.

VFR. ISO/SCT TSTMS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDS POSSIBLE AT ANY
TIME...BUT MORE LIKELY TO OCCUR ROUGHLY 02-05Z NEAR THE CITY
TERMINALS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND PLACEMENT IN TSRA
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS...WILL LEAVE IN VCSH DURING THIS PERIOD FOR NOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS AROUND 20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING.
ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: SEA BREEZE COULD POTENTIALLY SHIFT WINDS TO
THE SOUTH AROUND 21Z. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TAF.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: OCNL GUSTS 17-20 KT INTO EARLY EVENING. ANY
AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM POTENTIAL.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: ANY AMENDMENTS MOST LIKELY RELATED TO TSTM
POTENTIAL.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z WED THROUGH FRI...
.WED-FRI NIGHT...VFR.
.SAT-SUN...SUB-VFR PSBL IN SCT SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS ON THE WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT SEAS COULD BUILD TO 5 FT ON ANZ-350
TONIGHT...WITH TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND RESIDUAL 1-2 FT SWELLS. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT ALL THAT HIGH...SO DO NOT REFLECT IN FORECAST AT THIS TIME.
SEAS SHOULD COME DOWN ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WEAKENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE AREA.

GENERALLY LOOKING AT SUB-SCA CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WATERS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN HIGHER WINDS AND
SEAS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
SPOTTY SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY OVER AREAS N/W OF NYC...COULD PRODUCE
ISOLATED LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL COULD EXPERIENCE MINOR URBAN/POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING.
OUTSIDE OF AREAS EXPERIENCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...LESS THAN
0.2 INCHES OF BASIN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FROM ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DOES FALL THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

IT SHOULD THEN BE DRY FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$






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