Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 231133
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
733 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL WORK EAST OF THE AREA BY DAYBREAK WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THE LOW WILL THEN TRACK SLOWLY EAST THROUGH THURSDAY...
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT THEN MOVE EAST ON
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT
THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...FOLLOWED AGAIN BY HIGH
PRESSURE ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM MAY IMPACT THE REGION
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT JUST ABOUT TO CLEAR EASTERN LI/SE CT WITH A FEW POST-
FRONTAL SHOWERS ASSOC WITH A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROF ALOFT. THE
LATTER OF WHICH WILL PASS EAST OF THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING...
AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN INTO THU AS IT IT TRACKS
SLOWLY EAST, THIS WILL KEEP THE AREA UNDER A STRONG NW FLOW WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH BY THIS AFT. WINDS LOOK TO FALL JUST SHY OF
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION AND INSTABILITY STRATA CU WILL KEEP HIGHS IN
THE MID AND UPPER 50S...WHICH IS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
PREFERRED THE COLDER MET MOS.

THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG NW WINDS AND DRYING OF THE AIR MASS
WILL ELEVATE THE RISK OF WILDFIRE SPREAD. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
MORE OF THE SAME...GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH THU WHICH AT TIMES WILL
APPROACH 45 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MIDWEST WHILE
DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AN
ANOMALOUSLY COLD AIR MASS WILL FEATURE LOWS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TONIGHT. MOST LOCATIONS WILL DROP DOWN IN THE LOWER AND MID
30S...WITH SOME UPPER 20S WELL NORTH AND WEST OF NYC. SKIES WILL
ALSO CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ON THU...RH VALUES BELOW 25 PERCENT AND THE STRONG NW FLOW WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE A RED FLAG WARNING. THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH AT THIS TIME. SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

HIGHS WILL BE A TOUCH WARMER THU...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
ONCE AGAIN...LEANED TOWARD THE COLDER MET MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE FIRST PART OF FRIDAY. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION WILL RELAX...ALLOWING WINDS TO SUBSIDE.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT A CHANCES OF
SHOWERS THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT WILL LIMIT POPS TO RIGHT AROUND
30 WITH DIFFERENCES IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS CHANCE THAT UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS TO THE FORECAST LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS WARM FRONT SETS UP NEAR THE REGION.
RIGHT NOW THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES WITH RESPECT TO WHERE
THE FRONT WILL EXACTLY SET UP...EITHER OVER OR SOUTH OF THE REGION.
FOR NOW...WILL CARRY CHANCE POPS

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE RIGHT AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TODAY.

VFR. SOME SUB-VFR POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND 14Z EAST OF THE CITY WITH
SCT -SHRA.

INCREASING NW WINDS TODAY. WINDS PEAK THIS AFTN WITH GUSTS MOSTLY
AROUND 35KT...HOWEVER OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE.

...NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP://WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH IMPLIES
SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: WINDS FAVORING SOUTH OF 310 MAGNETIC UNTIL
AROUND 13-14Z...BUT AT TIMES NORTH OF IT. AFTER 13-14Z...WINDS
FAVORING NORTH OF 310 MAGNETIC...BUT COULD BE SOUTH OF IT AT TIMES.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: NO UNSCHEDULED AMENDMENTS EXPECTED.


.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
.THU...VFR. NW G30KT.
.FRI...VFR. CHC LATE DAY/NIGHTTIME -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SAT...MOSTLY VFR...HOWEVER CHC -SHRA AND MVFR.
.SUN...VFR. NW G20-25KT.

&&

.MARINE...
NW GALES DEVELOP BY AFT AND CONTINUE INTO THU WITH A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE TRACKING SLOWLY
EAST OF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA WATERS. SUB-SCA CONDITIONS RETURN LATE SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS RH VALUES GRADUALLY
LOWER INTO THE 35 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. NW WINDS
WILL GUST WELL IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH WITH 1- AND 10- HOUR FUEL
MOISTURE VALUES LESS THAN 10 PERCENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE
ADDRESSED IN THE FWF AS WELL AS IN AN SPS.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THU AS EXTREME RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT WITH STRONG NW WINDS AND RH VALUES LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT A RED FLAG
WARNING WILL BE ISSUED LATER TODAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
THERE ARE NO HYDROLOGIC CONCERNS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR CTZ005>012.
NY...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179.
NJ...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ002>004-006-103>108.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345-350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BC/DW
NEAR TERM...DW
SHORT TERM...DW
LONG TERM...BC
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...BC/DW
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...BC/DW






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