Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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034
FXUS61 KOKX 190235 CCA
AFDOKX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service New York NY
935 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak high pressure will build from the west into Thursday, and
settle overhead Thursday night into early Friday. A weakening
frontal system will approach Friday night into Saturday, and then
dissipate. Deepening low pressure will approach from the southwest
from Sunday into Monday while a gradually strengthening high
builds into the Canadian Maritimes. The low will continue to
approach Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

A northern stream shortwave will pass through tonight, with
sufficient forcing to cause some spotty light rain or drizzle
(freezing rain or drizzle where temps are at or below 32).
Confidence in freezing drizzle is too low at this point to issue
an SPS (not sure of timing of precipitation with temperatures
falling too/below freezing across the interior). However, best
forcing looks like it will miss NE NJ/NYC zones, so went with a
dry forecast there.

There should be some patchy fog across most of the area as well,
this also could freeze in areas falling to/below freezing. Once
again confidence is too low in this to issue an SPS at this time.

Temperatures will only fall a few degrees from current readings
given low cloud ceiling, so lows should generally run upper 20s-lower
30s across northern interior zones and mainly mid-upper 30s
elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
With the low pressure moving farther offshore and high pressure
building in, flow will gradually turn more northwesterly advecting
drier air into the area and allowing the stratus to finally
erode. Sunny conditions are expected by late morning, with subtle
downslope flow aiding in temperatures rising into the mid 40s to
lower 50s, around 10 degrees above climatological normals. Apart
from any light drizzle in the morning, the remainder of the day
should be dry.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure system will move northeastward into the Great Lakes
region on Friday, pushing a weakening frontal system across the area
Friday night into early Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be
light with this system. High temperatures Friday will be in the low
to mid 40s. Lows Friday night will be in the mid to upper 30s.

A weak boundary will remain overhead for Saturday, but ridging
overhead should allow for dry conditions across most areas through
the weekend. Temperatures on Saturday will be in the upper 40s to
lower 50s and mid to upper 40s on Sunday. Lows Saturday and Sunday
night will generally be in the mid to upper 30s.

A stronger frontal system approaches late Sunday into early next
week. At this time it does look like this system will bring to the
area a soaking rain Sunday into Monday. There is the potential of 1
to 2 inches of rainfall with this system from Sunday afternoon into
Monday night. The low will slowly pull away from the area by
the middle of next week.

Temperatures Monday through the middle of the week will remain above
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure builds in from the west.

MVFR/VFR improves to all VFR by late tonight with the exception
of KGON, which may remain at IFR all night. N-NW winds under 10 KT
tonight.

For Thursday, VFR with NW winds under 10 KT.

.OUTLOOK FOR 00Z FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.Thursday night-Friday...VFR.
.Friday night...Chance of MVFR or lower in -RA.
.Saturday-Saturday night...VFR.
.Sunday...Chance of MVFR of lower in -RA, with best chance at
CT/Long Island Terminals.
.Monday...Chance of IFR with heavy rain and strong E-NE winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Minor changes were made with this update to reflect the latest
trends in observations and guidance. The forecast appears on
track.

Wind gusts have fallen below 25 kt, therefore have converted the
SCA on the coastal ocean waters to an SCA for Hazardous Seas.

Seas should remain at 5-6 ft in at least part of each coastal
water zone into Thursday, before subsiding to below 5 ft
throughout during Thursday evening. A relatively relaxed pressure
gradient over the waters should keep winds to 10 kt or less,
except 15 kt or less early in the forecast period overnight.

Below small craft advisory conditions Friday through early Sunday.
Saturday. Small craft advisory conditions are possible on the ocean
waters Sunday afternoon, and for all waters on Monday, with the
approach of the next storm. Gales may be possible on the ocean
Monday afternoon/evening, and ocean seas could reach 6-11 ft Sunday
night into early next week as an easterly fetch sets up.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
No significant precipitation is expected through Saturday night.

As a frontal system moves slowly across the hydrologic service area
Sunday into the middle of next week it could bring a significant
rainfall of one to two inches. There is the potential for some minor
flooding.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
NJ...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for hazardous seas until 6 PM EST
     Thursday for ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Maloit/MD/Fig
NEAR TERM...Maloit
SHORT TERM...MD
LONG TERM...Fig
AVIATION...JC
MARINE...Maloit/MD/Fig
HYDROLOGY...MD/Fig



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