Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KOKX 031654
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1254 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE NORTHEAST INTO TONIGHT...AS
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES. THIS LOW TRACKS TO THE SOUTH SATURDAY...THEN OFF TO THE
EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS FROM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL THEN LIFT
SLOWLY UP THE COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY LINGER
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MINOR CHANGES MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST TRENDS
IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK.

WEAK 850-500 HPA RIDGING BUILDS IN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER DUE TO ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE.

ON TRACK FOR HIGHS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON.

THERE IS MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPSTREAM TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA THIS TIME
FRAME...WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST AND PASSING JUST SOUTH
OF LONG ISLAND LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS CLOSE
WITH REGARD TO SFC LOW TRACK...WITH CMC SLOWER.

THE FORECAST TREND IS WETTER AS ANALYSIS OF 00Z MODEL SUITE
INDICATES PLENTY OF LIFT OUT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH...AND TO THE
NORTH OF THE SFC LOW.

CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT...WITH A MAINLY CLOUDY SKY
SATURDAY. AFTER COLLABORATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL
MAKE THE JUMP TO LIKELY POPS SATURDAY DUE TO THIS WETTER
CONSENSUS.

TEMPS TONIGHT WILL SETTLE IN THE UPPER 50S TO THE MIDDLE 60S AS
CLOUDS INCREASE.

THEN...COOLER READINGS SEEM LIKELY SATURDAY DUE TO CLOUDS...RAIN
AND NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW. EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE ONLY TO THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER TO MID 70S...WELL BELOW NORMAL. THE AREA IS
OBVIOUSLY ON THE COOL SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM AND NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF INSTABILITY IS NOTED. STRATIFORM RAIN.

THE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH PASS EAST SATURDAY NIGHT. WOULD
ANTICIPATE IMPROVING CONDITIONS DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN ENDS AND SKIES GRADUALLY CLEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY SHOULD FEATURE A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS. COULD SEE SOME AFTERNOON CU ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS CYCLONIC FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT AND AS A WEAK
THERMAL TROUGH DEVELOPS.

SOME CHANGES ARE NOW IN THE OFFING FOR WHAT WAS PREVIOUSLY A DRY
MID WEEK FORECAST. FIRST...UPPER RIDGING WILL PASS ACROSS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND PASS TO THE NORTHEAST ON MON...ALLOWING HIGH CLOUDS FROM
A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTH INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO
SPREAD IN MON INTO MON EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD EVENTUALLY
ARRIVE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION.

THEN AN UPPER TROUGH TRAVERSING SOUTHERN CANADA WILL DRIVE A COLD
FRONT TOWARD THE AREA ON WED. WITH GLOBAL MODELS INDICATING QUASI-
ZONAL WSW FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL
STATES...THE TAIL END OF THIS FRONT SHOULD BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY
AS WELL...WITH A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG IT. THIS WILL MEAN CONTINUED CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION BOTH DIURNAL AND NON-DIURNAL FROM WED INTO
THU...DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS
MORNING...SLIDING OFFSHORE DURING THE AFTERNOON. A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TONIGHT.

VFR THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z SAT. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BETWEEN
09Z AND 12Z...BUT MORE LIKELY WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z.

MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECASTS. WINDS WILL BE
VARIABLE DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING. SEABREEZES THEN DEVELOP
AT COASTAL TERMINALS LATE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. DIRECTION AT
KBDR/KGON MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST DUE TO
HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS
CAN BE FOUND AT:
HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

THE AFTERNOON KEWR HAZE POTENTIAL FORECAST IS GREEN...WHICH
IMPLIES SLANT RANGE VISIBILITY 7SM OR GREATER OUTSIDE OF CLOUD.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF THE SEABREEZE COULD BE +/- 1-2
HOURS. DIRECTION MAY BE 20-30 DEGREES ON EITHER SIDE OF FORECAST
DUE TO HYBRID SYNOPTIC/SEABREEZE FLOW.

.OUTLOOK FOR 12Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...
.SATURDAY...MVFR LIKELY WITH RAIN DEVELOPING. LOW CHANCE OF IFR.
E/NE WINDS 10-15G20KT...BECOMING N LATE.
.SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...VFR. NORTHERLY WINDS DIMINISHING SAT EVE.

&&

.MARINE...
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THIS UPDATE TO REFLECT THE LATEST
TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. THE FORECAST APPEARS ON
TRACK.

WITH A RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION......WINDS WILL
REMAIN RATHER LIGHT ACROSS THE AREA WATERS. FAIRLY TRANQUIL SEAS
CAN BE EXPECTED AS WELL...MAINLY 2 TO 3 FEET IN SWELL TODAY OVER
THE OCEAN WATERS.

BY TONIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD THE EAST. WINDS INCREASE AS
THEY BACK TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST SATURDAY. OVER THE OCEAN...WINDS
MAY APPROACH SCA THRESHOLDS. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE THOUGH IN THIS
OCCURRING...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY HEADLINES.

SEAS BUILD LATE TONIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. HOWEVER...NOT
TOO CONFIDENT IN REACHING 5 FEET UNTIL POSSIBLY SAT EVENING.

WINDS AND SEAS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS IN
PLACE...RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN BELOW A 1/2 INCH SATURDAY.
NO HYDROLOGIC ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED.

SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION COULD OCCUR AT SOME POINT DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK LOW AND WARM FRONT MOVE UP THE COAST
ON TUE...THEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND STALLS NEARBY WED
INTO THU. PREDICTABILITY IS TOO LOW TO OFFER ANY SPECIFICS AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH A RECENT FULL MOON...TIDAL DEPARTURES OF ONLY 3/4 TO 1 1/2
FT ARE NEEDED FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING BENCHMARKS TO BE REACHED
AT THE PEAK OF THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
MINOR BENCHMARKS COULD BRIEFLY BE TOUCHED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
BAYS OF NASSAU COUNTY TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...WINDS INCREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY FROM THE
NORTHEAST...SO THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDES MAY NEED TO BE MONITORED AS
WELL.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GOODMAN/PW
NEAR TERM...MALOIT
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...GOODMAN
AVIATION...BC/24
MARINE...GOODMAN/MALOIT/PW
HYDROLOGY...GOODMAN/PW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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