Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FXUS61 KOKX 222011
AFDOKX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
411 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND TRACK
NORTHEAST...PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY...REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIME BY LATE FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE DOMINATES IN CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN AND TRACK TO THE
NORTHEAST FROM OFF THE DELMARVA TONIGHT. WITH THE SYSTEM NEARLY
STACKED THE SURFACE LOW ALSO OFF THE DELMARVA WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE
SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WILL BE
INCREASING POPS FROM EAST TO WEST THROUGH THE EVENING. LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT FLUCTUATE MUCH WITH THE RAIN AND
CLOUD COVER...AND NO CHANGE IN THE AIR MASS. TEMPERATURES FALL OFF
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER LOW REMAINS CLOSED OFF AND BY LATE IN THE DAY THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BEGINS TO GET PICKED UP BY THE WESTERLIES AND
MOVES A LITTLE QUICKER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE THE
SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY DEEPEN INTO FRIDAY. BANDS OF RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
CATEGORICAL POPS EARLY SLOWLY LOWERING INTO THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
LOW PULLS TO THE NORTHEAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ENDING FROM WEST SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST.
MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND LOW INTENSITY AND
A BLEND WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WITH EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC CHARACTERISTICS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY BECOMES DIFFUSE AND MERGES
WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTHEAST CANADA DURING THE
WEEKEND.

SO ESSENTIALLY...LOW PRESSURE REMAINS IN THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IN THE REGION
WITH MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL AIRMASS BUT A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DELIVER ANOTHER COOL AIRMASS ON SUNDAY. IT EVEN
APPEARS THERE COULD BE A SECONDARY COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ON
SUNDAY...HELPING TO REINFORCE THE COOLER AIR.

EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE.
THE AIRMASS MODERATES TO WARMER THAN NORMAL ON AVERAGE. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FOR LATE NEXT WEDNESDAY.

QUITE A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER FORECAST. THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED WITH A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE ATMOSPHERE. THEREFORE IT COULD VERY WELL MOVE
THROUGH DRY WITH PERHAPS A SHOWER OR TWO BUT JUST SLIGHT CHANCES.
THERE IS SOME INSTABILITY SHOWN AND DESPITE THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE SHORTWAVE AND VORTICITY ADVECTION IS LARGE SATURDAY
NIGHT SO THIS COULD RESULT IN POSSIBLE CONVECTION BUT WITH
INSTABILITY OF GENERALLY LESS THAN 100 J/KG OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA...LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES JUST SOUTH AND EAST OF LONG ISLAND THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING.

EXPECT PREDOMINATELY MVFR CEILINGS TODAY...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 KFT. A
FEW SPOTS HAVE SEEN IMPROVEMENT TO 2 TO 3 KFT.

MORE ORGANIZED RAIN IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE EAST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE NORTH BETWEEN 12-16KT WITH GUSTS INTO
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 20 KT RANGE. WINDS BACK SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

     NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT...

DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN
BE FOUND AT:  HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE)

KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR WIND GUST
TIMING.

KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY.

KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS ARE LIKELY TODAY FOR STRONGER
WIND GUST TIMING.

KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT
CATEGORIES.

KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS LIKELY FOR CHANGING FLIGHT CATEGORIES.

KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: AMENDMENTS FOR WINDS AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS
THROUGH THE DAY.

.OUTLOOK FOR 18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
.THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN PERIODS OF RA. N-NW WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...MOST LIKELY VFR...WITH LOW CHANCE SPOTTY
MVFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. NW-W WINDS G25-30KT POSSIBLE.
.SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR. NW WINDS G20-25KT POSSIBLE.
.MONDAY...VFR...NW-W WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE WAS JUST EAST OF THE DELMARVA AT MID AFTERNOON...AND
WILL DEEPEN AND MOVE SLOWLY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY...REACHING NEAR NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT
STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
WATERS. GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE
FORECAST WATERS WITH GALE GUSTS CONTINUING ON THE OCEAN WATERS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY THURSDAY. ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE WATERS
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY. AS THE LOW PULLS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY THE WIND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH
SMALL CRAFT GUSTS POSSIBLE INTO FRIDAY. SEAS ON THE OCEAN WILL
REMAIN ABOVE 5 FT THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY NIGHT.

STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT...PROBABLY SOME RESIDUAL SCA CONDITIONS ON THE
WATERS. THESE WILL LOWER TO BELOW SCA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BUT WILL TREND BACK UP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE SATURDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GALES SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. THESE LOWER BY LATER SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT SCA CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER DOWN FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
GENERALLY LIGHT RAIN WITH PERIODS OF MODERATE RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING WILL TOTAL FROM AROUND 3/4 OF AN INCH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
NEW JERSEY TO 1 1/4 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CONNECTICUT.

NO SIGNIFICANT WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FRI NIGHT THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ330-335-338-340-
     345.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ350-353-355.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JM/MET
NEAR TERM...MET
SHORT TERM...MET
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...BC
MARINE...JM/MET
HYDROLOGY...JM/MET






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