Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 230958
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
258 AM PDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
The Memorial Day Weekend is expected to be warmer than average,
with afternoon temperatures in the 70s and 80s. Look for scattered
showers and thunderstorms this weekend into next week. Some
thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and
frequent lightning.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
Saturday through Sunday night: A thermal trough of lower pressure
will shift slightly more into the basin today. This will set up
a weak northerly gradient over the northeast portion of the
region. The main impact that this gradient will have is to filter
in some drier air into out of Canada. There are some
discrepancies amongst the 00Z model guidance as far as how much
drier air will push down. The GFS and RAP (a.k.a. RUC) solutions
are a bit more aggressive with the drier air. The NAM/SREF are
more moist with dew point temperatures generally remaining in the
mid 30s to the lower 40s across the northern mountain valleys;
although, both of these solutions show a slight drying trend as
well. As would be expected, the GFS is much less unstable today
compared to Friday with dew point temperatures dropping into the
20s with drier push. The GFS would suggest that the Cascade crest
and the far southeast portion of the forecast area would see
convection today. The NAM, on the other hand, is a bit more
unstable, with convection possible over the Waterville Plateau and
across the northern mountains. I went with more of a compromise
between these two models. Best chances for convection today is
expected along the Cascade crest, over the Northeast Blue
Mountains over to the Central Panhandle Mtns. I also added a
slight chance of showers over the Waterville Plateau and over the
Okanogan Highlands.

Sunday looks to be a better day for more thunderstorm activity compared
to Saturday. Models are in good agreement that an upper level low
pressure system, currently over Graham Island off the BC mainland,
will drop down toward the region. This disturbance will tap into
some instability across the northwestern portion of the forecast
area. This will result in isolated to scattered thunderstorms
across the east slopes of the Cascade Mtns and progressively shift
across the northern half of the forecast area Monday afternoon
into Monday evening. Thunderstorms will be very wet with heavy
down pours likely; small hail and gusty outflow winds will also
be possible with the thunderstorms.

Temperatures will remain above normal through this weekend. Expect
high temperatures to remain in the upper 70s and 80s. /SVH

Memorial Day: An upper low is expected to descend into central
Washington Monday afternoon/evening bringing a good chance for
showers and thunderstorms to round out our holiday weekend.
Model agreement is good that the center of the 500mb low will be
in the vicinity of Omak by late afternoon placing northeast
Washington and north Idaho in a favorable region of upper level
diffluence under an advancing 500mb cold pool. The models suggest
that a dry slot surging into the Columbia Basin into southeast
Washington will suppress showers over the Palouse and Basin in the
afternoon. However, as the upper cold pool advances southward in
the evening, widely scattered showers may develop as far south as
Moses Lake, Pullman and Lewiston. Storm motion on Monday will be
more typical (east or northeast) compared to the westerly
propagating cells of the last couple of days. Weak shear and light
storm steering flow Monday afternoon suggest the potential for
locally heavy rain especially under cells over northern Washington
that may become terrain based. Burn scar flooding could be a
concern Monday afternoon and early evening.

Tuesday: Chances for showers and thunderstorms have been raised
for Tuesday especially over the Idaho Panhandle and
northeast/north central Washington. There is good model agreement
that the upper low that arrives Monday will move little by Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We may see better convective coverage
Tuesday than we do on Monday. As the upper low stalls, the dry
slot we anticipate Monday will probably be less pronounced on
Tuesday. Once again, storm steering flow will be very weak on
Tuesday setting the stage for locally heavy rain. If the models
place the 500mb low correctly on Tuesday over central Washington,
thunderstorms could be of particular concern for the 2014 burn
scars. This area could be in a prime spot for deep layer moisture
and surface instability in the wrap around region of the upper
low.

Wednesday through Friday: For the second half of the week chances
for shower/thunderstorm chances trend down as the medium range
models weaken the upper low and build a warm ridge over the Inland
Northwest Thursday and Friday. The end of the week has the
potential to be quite warm. The ECMWF and GFS suggest 850mb
temperatures near 20C which translates to mid 80s to low 90s.
Without a strong push of dry air, slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms remain in the forecast for the mountains into
Thursday and Friday. Afternoon and early evening showers primarily
driven by diurnal surface based instability. /GKoch

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAFS: Thunderstorms and showers have moved to the southwest
and out of the aviation however the middle and high cloud blowoff
associated with the exited thunderstorms still lingers over many a
TAF site. Some improvement is shown overnight with the expectation
this cloud cover will diminish. The resulting low level moisture
lingering may allow for some minor stratus and fog in some spots
that should not linger long tomorrow morning. Less convective
activity is expected tomorrow afternoon as well. /Pelatti


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        81  53  79  55  71  51 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Coeur d`Alene  80  53  80  54  70  48 /  10  10  10  30  50  50
Pullman        75  47  74  49  70  46 /  10  20  10  10  20  20
Lewiston       81  55  81  56  78  53 /  20  30  10  20  20  20
Colville       83  53  82  53  73  50 /  10  10  20  40  70  50
Sandpoint      80  48  79  51  70  47 /  10   0  10  30  60  50
Kellogg        77  49  78  50  70  47 /  20  10  10  20  60  50
Moses Lake     85  55  83  55  80  52 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Wenatchee      85  59  82  57  78  55 /  20  10  20  20  20  20
Omak           87  53  83  52  76  51 /  10  10  40  40  50  40

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$


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