Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Spokane, WA

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FXUS66 KOTX 311817
AFDOTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1116 AM PDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
It will be partly cloudy and hot with isolated thunderstorms
through the end of the week and into the weekend. No significant
relief from the hot weather is forecast through the seven-day
forecast period. However, only a few spots may reach the 100-degree
mark. Isolated thunderstorms the next several days are not
expected to be strong or severe but could bring localized heavy
downpours.



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Today through Friday...Hot temperatures will continue across the
region with isolated showers and thunderstorms possible across the
southeast zones today. The ridge axis will shift slightly to the
east today, but not enough to account for more than a degree or
two of cooling. Monsoonal moisture will try to push into the NE
Blue Mts, Camas Prairie and the central panhandle mountains today.
This will work with a weak impulse to allow isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms to develop across the southeast. There
is a decent amount of CAPE but bulk shear is rather weak so any
thunderstorms that develop will tend to be garden variety. There
is a better push of moisture Friday that will extend into the
north Cascades as well as the southeast. CAPE will be limited to a
couple hundred J/kg for the Cascades so there is a slight risk of
thunderstorms to develop near active fires or recent burn scars.
Scattered thunderstorms will again develop across the southeast
zones. Temperatures will continue the above normal trend with
readings in the 95 to 105 degree range. The highest temperatures
will be in the Lewis-Clark Valley today where a Heat Advisory has
been issued. Fridays temps should be a bit cooler but just by a
couple of degrees with most valley locations in the 90s. Overnight
lows will also be well above normal. The warmest readings will be
in the mid-slope thermal belt at the top of the inversion where
readings could top out in the 70s. /Kelch

Friday Night through Thursday...The Inland Northwest will be in
between and exiting ridge of high pressure and a deep low in the
Gulf of Alaska through Sunday. A weak upper level front will track
across the region Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow with weak
ridge will return Monday through the remainder of the forecast
period.

Southwest flow is expected Friday night through Saturday night or
early Sunday. The models are not necessarily in agreement but all
are showing and influx of Pacific moisture through this portion of
the forecast. Model PWATs increase to 140-160 percent of normal.
Several weak waves will track through the region, with the upper
level front between 00z-12z Sunday. Model guidance is showing an
extended period of both surface based and mid level instability
through Sunday night. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon through Sunday. The
best chance for nocturnal thunderstorms appears to be Friday night
and Saturday night. These storms may begin dry Friday night but
should become mainly wet storms Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures
will show a bit of a cooling trend with lower heights and some
cloud cover but will remain above normal.

Monday through the week the flow becomes westerly with a hint of a
ridge of high pressure at 5H Monday and Tuesday. The region will
lose the deep Pacific moisture tap, allowing the atmosphere to
stabilize. A few showers may be possible Monday afternoon across
the orographically favored Panhandle mountains, otherwise dry
through Thursday. Temperatures will rebound a few degrees Monday
and Tuesday under the ridge but cool off close to normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. /Tobin


&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAFS: VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours. Cumulus will
develop over the mountains in the afternoon with cirrus moving in
from the south through the late afternoon and evening hours.
Isolated thunderstorm development is possible from the Blue mtns
to Lookout Pass this afternoon/evening. We will also have to watch
for the potential for a few elevated showers coming into the Upper
Columbia Basin overnight into Friday morning, but the threat of it
passing any TAF sites is low. /J. Cote`


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        96  66  94  66  92  66 /   0   0  10  10  20  20
Coeur d`Alene  94  60  94  62  91  63 /   0  10  10  20  20  20
Pullman        94  58  93  57  92  59 /  10  10  20  20  20  20
Lewiston      101  70  99  69  97  71 /  10  10  30  30  20  20
Colville       99  56  95  59  95  58 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Sandpoint      94  52  93  56  88  56 /   0  10  20  20  20  20
Kellogg        92  57  90  62  88  62 /  10  10  20  20  30  20
Moses Lake    101  66  98  64  97  65 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Wenatchee      99  70  96  71  96  71 /   0  10  10  10  20  20
Omak          101  64 100  68  96  67 /   0   0  10  10  20  20

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lewiston Area.

WA...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening
     for Lower Garfield and Asotin Counties.

&&

$$




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