Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 192113
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
413 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEPART EAST AND BE REPLACED BY RIDGING
TONIGHT. MODEL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
TRAPPED UNDER THE BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...PREVENTING US FROM
CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING. THIS ISN`T COMPLETELY CLEAR CUT...BUT
WILL OPT TO KEEP MOSTLY CLOUDY WORDING UNLESS SATELLITE
OBSERVATIONS SHOW OTHERWISE. DID DROP TEMPS FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING
MUCH ABOVE CURRENT VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WERE KEPT NEAR MET
GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SETTLE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS FOR
MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. A FAST MOVING SYSTEM WILL BE SUPPRESSED TO
THE SOUTH SATURDAY BUT SOME MID-HIGH DECK MAY REPLACE THE LOW
DECK...MAINTAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
WITH NEARLY STAGNANT 850HPA TEMPERATURES AND MINIMAL SUN
TOMORROW...EXPECT HIGHS WILL NOT SURPASS THE LOW TO MID 30`S.
HOWEVER...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM ADVECTION WILL RETURN FOR SUNDAY
AND MONDAY BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO NEAR OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES.

ON MONDAY...WE WILL BE IN THE SQUEEZE BETWEEN TWO SYSTEMS. ONE LOW
WILL BE DEVELOPING ALONG THE GULF COAST...WHILE ANOTHER LOW AND
DEEPENING UPPER TROUGH WILL SINK SOUTHWARD OVER THE CENTRAL US.
THIS LOW OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL HELP TO AMPLIFY THE UPPER
PATTERN...EJECTING THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM NORTHWARD. AT THIS POINT
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN
EAST...JUST BRUSHING OUR EASTERN MOUNTAINS OF WV/MD UNTIL THE COLD
FRONT WITH THE DEEPENING LOW APPROACHES. MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS
FOR THE RIDGES WITH LOWER POPS FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THROUGH
MONDAY. WHILE THE MID LEVELS WILL BE WARMING...CANNOT RULE OUT A
RAIN/SNOW MIX INITIALLY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE RIDGES BEFORE
CHANGING TO ALL RAIN. SOME FREEZING RAIN COULD ALSO BE OF CONCERN
IN ANY SHELTERED VALLEYS...BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE THIS OUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN
INTO WEDNESDAY UNTIL COLD FRONT WILL CHANGE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW
SHOWERS LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WINDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE THURSDAY AS SURFACE LOW WRAPS UP NORTH OF THE REGION. QPF
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF SYSTEM WILL BE NEAR AN INCH...WHICH SHOULD
NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS. BACKLASH SNOW WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL BE LIGHT WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. FLOW BEHIND COLD FRONT LOOKS TO STAY SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH
LOOKS TO LIMIT LAKE ENHANCED AMOUNTS ALONG I-80 AND THE RIDGES.
COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE FRIDAY AS MID LEVEL FLOW
QUICKLY BECOMES ZONAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERAL MVFR EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.


OUTLOOK.../SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATUS AND RESTRICTIONS MAY PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND. NEXT STORM
SYSTEM WILL BRING RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$









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