Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 270051
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
851 PM EDT THU MAR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LATE EVE UPDATE FEATURED FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TRENDS
AS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO ENCROACH THROUGH THE
NIGHT...REMAINING AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW...BUT
COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE UPPER SUPPORT AND DEEPER
MOISTURE SUPPLY DEPART. NO ACCUMULATION OTHER THAN A SPOTTY FEW
TENTHS ON GRASSY AREAS IS EXPECTED.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST REMAINS CONSISTENT...HENCE NO
CHANGES WERE NEEDED DESPITE THE TREND ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE REGION WITH COLD
ADVECTION AND NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED TO KEEP RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WHILE DEEP MOISTURE
WILL BE LIMITED...THERE IS A PERIOD FRIDAY NIGHT WHERE SEVERAL OF
THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE INTO THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH CROSSES. THIS
IS BETTER REPRESENTED IN THE FORECAST POINTS NORTH OF I-80 AND IN
THE RIDGES WITH UPSLOPE SUPPORT...SO THE HIGHEST POPS WERE
MAINTAINED IN THOSE LOCATIONS. WHILE SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES AND STRONG COLD ADVECTION...IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN INCH AND MAINLY ON GRASSY SURFACES.

850HPA TEMPERATURES FALL TO NEAR -18C BY SATURDAY MORNING SO
EXPECT BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH
A GRADUAL WARMING TREND BY SUNDAY AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD. HOWEVER WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS MAY KEEP LOWS BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY MOVE THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING THE RISK FOR RAIN OR SNOW AND ANOTHER SHOT OF
COLD AIR ON MONDAY. DRY WEATHER AND A SLOW MODERATION IN TEMPS IS
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST TONIGHT WITH
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BEHIND EXITING LOW PRESSURE. THESE
CIGS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY IN COLD NORTHWEST FLOW...UNTIL
MIXING ALLOWS FOR A RETURN TO VFR STRATOCU BY MID AFTERNOON FOR
PORTS SOUTH OF I 80.

.OUTLOOK.../FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY WITH AN UPPER
TROUGH. RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN WITH EARLY WEEK LOW
PRESSURE.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

15/07





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