Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 170143
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
943 PM EDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK
WEEK. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN PASS MAINLY TO OUR NORTH EARLY THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EASTWARD WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION RETURNING ALOFT. HOWEVER...THINK THAT LOW LEVEL MIXING
WILL BE WEAK WITH INVERSION IN PLACE OVERNIGHT AND HIGH CIRRUS
SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES AS WELL. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20`S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TONIGHT.

WARM ADVECTION AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE TO CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MODERATING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES CLIMB CLOSE TO +4C ON FRIDAY.

A WEAK SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT SEEMS POISED TO
LARGELY SHEAR OUT AS IT MOVES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE CONNECTION
AND WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LIKELY TO TRANSIT NORTH OF OUR AREA PER THE MODEL
CONSENSUS...NOTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCE POPS SEEMED PRUDENT AT THIS
JUNCTURE. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAMIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS
LIKELY TO BE A WIND SHIFT BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AND A TEMPORARY
SCALING BACK OF TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT AS
MODIFIED POLAR HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. FRIES

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OF THE REGION BY SUNDAY AS THE
MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SEEMS LIKELY TO DO SIMILARLY. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND NICELY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NEXT SYSTEMS SEEMS LIKELY TO AFFECT THE AREA ROUGHLY MONDAY WITH
DRIER WEATHER RETURNING FOR MID-WEEK.

OVERALL...THE PATTERN LOOKS TO TURN MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM STRAYING ALL
THAT FAR FROM NORMAL...AND KEEP PERIODIC TRENDS FROM DRY TO WET
AND BACK UNTIL MORE AMPLIFIED RIDGING SEEMS POSSIBLE JUST BEYOND
THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FRIES

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS
THE REGION.

.OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME MAINLY MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A MOISTURE-STARVED FRONT ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$







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