Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 050519
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
119 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST
THROUGH FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES RETURN SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES...OTHERWISE NO MAJOR
CHANGES. UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
OHIO RIVER OVERNIGHT. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS
OVERNIGHT...BUT STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF SHOWER ACTIVITY AS THE
DEFORMATION ZONE TAKES ON MORE OF A NW/SE ORIENTATION WITH TIME.

UPPER LOW CENTER ROTATES ACROSS KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE TOWARDS
NORTH CAROLINA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE H5 CLOSED LOW MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MEANDER AROUND THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH AT LEAST FRI NIGHT...WITH VORTICITY LOBES
CIRCUMNAVIGATING THE SYSTEM. THESE WAVES WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS IN
THE SERN ZONES AND ESPECIALLY IN THE RIDGES ON THU NIGHT...WHERE
MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ENHANCE PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL.

BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON SATURDAY WILL HELP DIVERT THE UPPER
LOW AND BRING AN END TO THE PRECIPITATION FOR SAT AFTERNOON. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES REGION
WILL SHUNT THE UPPER RIDGE SEWD...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
CONSEQUENTLY INCREASING SAT NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
APPROACHES AND CROSSES THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SAT NIGHT WILL EXIT QUICKLY BY SUN MORNING IN THE
WAKE OF THE GREAT LAKES SHORTWAVE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH LITTLE
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON SUN...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ON THE
NRN SIDE OF A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THUS...MAXIMA WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY-BELOW NORMAL IN THE LOW-MID 60S.

A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAD BEEN LOCATED IN THE SWRN
CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL EJECT SLOWLY INTO THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE
OVER THE ERN CONUS AND ATTENDANT INCREASE IN WARM AIR BEGINNING ON
MON. NEAR-CLIMATOLOGICAL POPS WERE INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST DURING
THIS TIME AS THE FCST AREA WILL RESIDE IN THE MOIST WARM SECTOR.

ALTHOUGH THERE IS TIMING DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MEDIUM-RANGE
MODELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION LATE
WED/THU AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. GIVEN THE TIMING DIFFERENCES...THIS COMBINATION OF
FEATURES WARRANTS GENERAL HEIGHTENED POPS AND INCREASED CLOUD
COVER DURING ITS TENURE IN THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SWD MOVG UPR LVL LOW OVER OH IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN AREAS OF
SHOWERS ACRS THE RGN THRU TODAY. MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH LOCAL
IFR...ARE EXPECTED IN THESE SHOWERS...WITH VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
PCPN.

.OUTLOOK /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PERIODIC RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH FRI WITH PERSISTENT LOW
PRESSURE...AND AGAIN WITH A SAT NGT COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$



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