Area Forecast Discussion
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834
FXUS61 KPBZ 220511 AAC
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1211 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered snow showers will be ending this morning and much
colder air will overspread the region. Dry weather can then be
expected until the approach of the next front on Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Overnight period in good shape. Would expect precipitation
associated with cold front to expand a bit overnight as main
shortwave drives through the area late tonight and this morning.
Most of the precipitation would likely be post-frontal in the
area of large scale ascension and increased atmospheric
instability. Since a large chunk of the precipitation will be
in the colder air, light rain showers will quickly change to
light snow showers or flurries.

Good shot of cold air will overspread the region today. Any
lingering snow showers would likely be confined to the I-80
corridor and the ridges. Forecast soundings are showing
inversion levels dropping quickly in the cold air, putting the
saturated layer below the dendritic growth zone. Snow showers to
the north would be driven by the possibility of lake enhanced
bands developing and snow showers over the highest ridges would
be orographically influenced.

With strong cold air advection today and a stratocu cloud deck,
temperatures will be well below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Surface high pressure under broad upper troughing will ensure a
dry, but cool conditions through the end of the week.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble forecasts are showing the next cold front dropping
through the area on Saturday with fairly weak support for
precipitation, followed by the next trough setting up over the
Eastern CONUS. Cold weather is thus projected to start the new
week.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Condition deterioration is expected tonight with the encroachment
of a cold front. Expect MVFR cigs with rain changing to snow
and lcl IFR, especially at FKl and DUJ.

Cold advection on nw wind in the wake of the front will
maintain MVFR cigs through Wednesday for ports east of ZZV.

.Outlook...
The next chance for restrictions is forecast with a Saturday
cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$



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