Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS61 KPBZ 280142
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
942 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME SEVERE...WILL PLAGUE THE
UPPER OHIO REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED MID-LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO ADVANCE
TOWARD THE AREA...WHICH HAS BROUGHT ABOUT A SECONDARY INCREASE IN
STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. WHILE
THESE STORMS RAGED OFF OF LAKE ERIE WITH MULTIPLE HOOK ECHOES IN A
LINE ECHO WAVE PATTERN OVER THE WARM LAKE...THIS HAS LARGELY
TURNED INTO BOWING SEGMENTS THAT WILL HAVE INCREASING DIFFICULTY
MANAGING ANY DOWNBURSTS TOWARD THE GROUND AS THEY ENCOUNTER
PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE LOW LEVELS MOVING DEEPER INTO OHIO AND
PENNSYLVANIA. AS SUCH TORNADO WATCH 447 WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE/WAS
CANCELLED FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

FARTHER SOUTH...850 MB CONVERGENCE IS MANAGING TO MAINTAIN A LINE
OF PREFERRED DEVELOPMENT THAT BISECT TUCKER COUNTY WEST VIRGINIA.
HERE...AMPLE INSTABILITY AND A STILL FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE AHEAD
OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS MANAGED TO MAINTAIN ROTATING
UPDRAFTS ALONG SAID CONVERGENCE AREA. AS SUCH...TUCKER COUNTY WAS
PUT INTO A BRAND NEW TORNADO WATCH 551.  FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO WRAP AROUND THE EXITING TROUGH ON
MONDAY...KEEPING IN THE RISK FOR SHOWERS. ATMOSPHERE IS NOT
SHOWING A GREAT DEAL OF INSTABILITY MONDAY AND WITH LOTS OF CLOUD
COVER...STORM THREAT SHOULD BE GREATLY REDUCED.

SHOWERS WILL END MONDAY NIGHT...AND MUCH COOLER AIR WILL DIVE
SOUTHWARD OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

TUESDAY SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SUNSHINE...BUT WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE UNDER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE A COOL AND
COMFORTABLE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT MAY BRING SHOWERS
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN FRIDAY. WARMER AIR AND THE
RISK FOR SHOWERS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BASICALLY MOVED AWAY FROM MOST TERMINALS
EXCEPT KFKL. A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL
BRING ANOTHER SHOT AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
NIGHTTIME...WITH STRATUS AND VIS RESTRICTIONS LIKELY OVERNIGHT
TOWARD MORNING AT ALL TERMINALS. SHOWER CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE MID-LEVEL COLD AIR REMAINS
OVERHEAD. FRIES

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RSTRNS ARE LIKELY MON AS A CDFNT CROSSES THE RGN.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$





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