Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS61 KPBZ 012034
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
334 PM EST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION THROUGH MONDAY.
MUCH COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SFC LOW PRES WAS CENTERED OVER IL WL CONT TO ADVN ACRS THE RGN
TNGT TRACKING OVR WRN PA. THE 850 MB LOW IS PROGGED TO TRACK ACRS
NW PA AND LAKE ERIE...KEEPING THE HEAVIEST SNW AXIS ACRS NWRN PA.

ANOTHER AREA OF DEEP MSTR AND OMEGA IS EXPD TO MOVE ACRS THE AREA
AGAIN THIS EVE. CRITICAL THICKNESSES AND MDL SOUNDING PROFILES
SHOW WRM ADVCTN ACRS THE RGN THRU TNGT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW SNW TO
MIX WITH OR CHG TO RAIN WITH A PSBL BRIEF PD OF FRZG RAIN S OF I
80...REDUCING SNW TOTALS TNGT. FOR THIS REASON CHGD THE WINTER
STORM WRNG TO AN ADVY S OF I 80...BUT KEPT THE WRNG N AS PCPN
SHOULD STAY ALL SNW THERE. CANCELLED ADVYS IN OTHER AREAS WHERE
PCPN HAS TAPERED OFF AND WHERE NO SIGNIFICANT SNW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPD. CONTD THE ADVY FOR ALLEGHENY COUNTY AND SURROUNDING
AREAS BUT THIS PORTION COULD BE CANCELLED ERLY IF TEMPS WRM
SUFFICIENTLY. GENLY FOLLOWED THE DETAILS OF THE NAM WHICH WAS
SLGTLY LESS AGGRESSIVE THAN THE GFS WITH WRM ADVCTN TNGT.

ADDNL SNW SHWRS ARE EXPD MON AS THE UPR TROF AXIS CROSSES AND
STRONG COLD ADVCTN SETS UP. UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SET UP AS
WELL...BUT MSTR THINS QUICKLY IN THE SNW GROWTH RGN WHICH SHOULD
HELP LIMIT ACCUMULATIONS TO ARND A COUPLE OF INCHES IN THE RIDGES.
USED A NAM/GFS BLEND FOR TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING AN END TO LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS
WITH CLOUDS BREAKING SOMEWHAT MONDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS WITH BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE NORTH. QUIET AND COLD
TUESDAY. NEXT COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH
LATER TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WEDNESDAY WILL MODERATE
TO NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD AND DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE INTO SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
IFR SNOW BANDS WILL EXIT WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTS 19-20 WITH QUICK
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR AND POSSIBLE VFR LATE AFTERNOON. IFR TO LIFR
CIGS AND SNOW WILL REMAIN FOR KFKL AND KDUJ THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND
AS SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT IFR
CIGS AND VSBY IN RAIN WILL REDEVELOP. COLD AIR WRAPS IN QUICKLY
BEHIND SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING WITH A PERIOD OF IFR SNOW SHOWERS AS
WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WITH GUSTS OVER 20 KTS.

OUTLOOK.../MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEXT CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WILL BE WITH A WEDNESDAY
COLD FRONT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR OHZ040-041.
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ007>009-015-
     016.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST MONDAY FOR PAZ013-014-
     020>023-073-074.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$






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