Area Forecast Discussion
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328
FXUS61 KPBZ 071357
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
857 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER DAY OF WARM TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...LOW PRESSURE WILL
SPREAD RAIN AND SNOW OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY...THEN ALL SNOW
THROUGH MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN ADDITIONAL UPDATE WAS ISSUED TO ADJUST SKY COVER AS SWATH OF
MID LVL CLOUDS WILL TRAVERSE THE REGION IN THE INTENSIFYING WARM
ADVCTN REGIME ALOFT.

OTHERWISE...AREA WILL REMAIN DRY TODAY WITH RIDGING BETWEEN TWO
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS...OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
SOUTHEASTERN U.S...TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI LOW IS CURRENTLY FORECASTED TO DEEPEN OVER
THE GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST...AMPLIFYING THE SOUTHWEST...TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER OHIO TONIGHT AND MONDAY. IMPROVED
MOISTURE AND ASCENT FIELDS WILL SUPPORT INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES OVER WESTERN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH EASTWARD PROGRESSION
ON MONDAY.

THE MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILE AND WARM BOUNDARY LAYER ON THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE LIKELY TO COMPROMISE SNOW
POTENTIAL AND PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATIONS MONDAY.
HOWEVER...THE SYSTEMS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL USHER IN A MUCH COLDER
AIRMASS MONDAY NIGHT.

FORTUNATELY...THE ENCROACHMENT OF THE MID/UPPER LOW CENTER SHOULD
SUFFICIENTLY WEAKEN THE WIND/FRONTOGENESIS POTENTIAL AND OVERALL
ASCENT FIELDS AND OFFSET THE IMPROVED TEMPERATURE PROFILE FOR
SNOW. THE FORECAST REMAINS OF PROLONGED SNOW SHOWER POTENTIAL
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH RELATIVELY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. THE
EXCEPTION...AS ALWAYS...WILL BE THE RIDGES...WHERE OROGRAPHIC
SUPPORT SHOULD PROMOTE MORE SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW IS GFS/ECMWF FORECAST TO CUTOFF AND
DEVELOP EASTWARD BEFORE FILLING/PHASING INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN
BY TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. OVERALL UPPER TROUGHING IS PROGGED
OVER THE GREAT LAKES/UPPER OHIO REGION FOR THE LONG-TERM
PERIOD. ANOTHER AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.

THE LONG TERM WAS CONSTRUCTED USING THE SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WILL CONT TDA ALTHOUGH MID LVL CLOUDS WL INCRS LATER AHD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. MVFR IN RAIN AND SNOW IS EXPD FOR
PORTS W OF PIT BY SUNRISE MON MRNG AS THE FRONT ADVANCES.

.OUTLOOK.../TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THU WITH THE AREA UNDR UPR
TROFG.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
15/07



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