Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 291551 AAA
AFDPDT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PENDLETON OR
845 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREAS WEATHER WITH DRY
CONDITIONS TODAY. OTHER THAN SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THAT MAY DRIFT
ACROSS THE REGION...MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE WITH A WARMING
TREND EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. AFTN TEMPS WILL SOAR TOWARD
THE CENTURY MARK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THURS AND FRIDAY.
OTHER THAN SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS TODAY...THE PRESENT SHORT
TERM FORECAST APPEARS ON TRACK FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 309 AM PDT WED JUL 29 2015/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A STRONG WARMING
TREND AND VERY DRY CONDITIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S LOWER ELEVATIONS AND 70S TO 80S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO 100-105 DEGREES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS ON FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE
IS SOME MONSOON MOISTURE THAT WILL TRY TO WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CWA ON FRIDAY IN A SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THE
UPPER RIDGE. HAVE INTRODUCED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY
DESCHUTES COUNTY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE
OF NEGATIVE LI`S...SOME CAPE AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE.
ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED AND WILL CONTAIN LITTLE
RAINFALL. THEREFORE THIS MAY BECOME A FIRE WEATHER CONCERN AS WELL
AND WILL MONITOR IT CLOSELY. 88

LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN HAVING STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOT
WITH HIGHS 95-105 IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE UPPER 80S AND
90S IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW MODEST AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE BEING CIRCULATED AROUND THE HIGH AND INTO THE AREA,
ASSISTED BY CIRCULATION AROUND A LOW OUT IN THE PACIFIC. THIS WILL
GIVE US A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL
OREGON AS FAR NORTH AS REDMOND ON SATURDAY THEN SPREADING FROM
CENTRAL OREGON INTO THE OCHOCO-JOHN DAY HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEASTWARD
INTO THE BLUE MOUNTAINS AND WALLOWA COUNTY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, MODELS
BEGIN DIVERGING AS TO THE HANDLING OF AN UPPER LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THE GFS BRINGS THE LOW TO THE NORTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA
COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN ASHORE TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS KEEPS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE AREA BUT MOVES THE RIDGE AXIS EASTWARD INTO
MONTANA. THE ECMWF SPLITS THE LOW AND KEEPS ONE LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SENDS THE OTHER LOW INTO CENTRAL BRITISH COLUMBIA MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS OTHER LOW THEN MOVES TO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS FLATTENS THE RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND DEVELOPS
A TROUGH OVER OUR AREA. BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE COOLER AND WOULD CONTINUE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SO HAVE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY DROPPING TO 90-100 WITH MID 80S TO LOWER 90S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. ALSO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. PERRY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  92  58  98  63 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  92  62  99  67 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  94  58 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  91  58  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  94  57 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  92  56  97  59 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  91  49  97  55 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  89  50  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  90  49  96  53 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  95  61 100  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.
WA...NONE.
&&

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT...
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PENDLETON

$$

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