Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pendleton, OR

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FXUS66 KPDT 230514
AFDPDT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pendleton OR
1015 PM PDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Updated aviation discussion

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Friday...A ridge of high pressure will
continue to build off the west coast and begin to expands its reach
into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. This will lead to warmer
temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees across the forecast area Friday.
Skies will remain clear and winds will be light. Just made minor
changes in the evening forecast update to winds and temperatures.

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours with clear skies and winds less than 10 kts.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 202 PM PDT Thu Jun 22 2017/

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Saturday. A dry high pressure system
over the e pac will continue to build into the pacnw for the next
several days. A warming trend is expected into the weekend as
temps climb into the 90s across the region and may approach the
century mark for some locations in the columbia basin by Sunday.

LONG TERM...Sunday night through Thursday...Models in good
agreement in developing southerly flow over our western CWA Sunday
as the upper ridge slowly gets nudged east ahead of a weakening
system over the eastern Pacific.  Moisture will be very limited on
Sunday so expect the convection to be very isolated and mainly near
the cascades...mainly south of Sisters.  By Monday...moisture will
continue to spread northward and affect Oregon with a slight chance
of afternoon and evening thunderstorms.  A marine push will nudge
the instability east into Idaho Tuesday.  Models begin to diverge
significantly Tuesday afternoon as the GFS shows a rather potent low
swinging down from BC and clipping the Idaho panhandle.  The ECMWF
keeps the low well north of the area in northern BC.  At this
time...will go with the drier ECMWF solution as moisture remains
limited.  The expected zonal flow from either solution will produce
breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon and evening behind the marine
push.  The models continue to have divergent solutions Wednesday and
Thursday.  The GFS shows unsettled weather as another upper level
low drops over the CWA Thursday.  The ECMWF continues to show
dry...northwesterly flow.  At this time...will lean towards the
drier ECMWF solution and see if the models begin to converge over
the weekend.  Daytime highs will be well above normal Monday...but
are expected to cool 10-15 degrees Tuesday and hover near normal
through the rest of the period. Earle



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
PDT  49  84  52  88 /   0   0   0   0
ALW  55  87  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
PSC  52  88  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
YKM  52  89  52  93 /   0   0   0   0
HRI  50  87  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
ELN  49  87  50  92 /   0   0   0   0
RDM  42  87  44  91 /   0   0   0   0
LGD  47  81  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
GCD  45  85  46  89 /   0   0   0   0
DLS  55  92  56  95 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.
WA...None.
&&

$$

91/91/91



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