Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 030403
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
903 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...UPPER TROUGH SLIDING SOUTH ACROSS EAST IDAHO THIS
EVENING. SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE EJECTING NORTHEAST THROUGH UT INTO
WY/CO. MAIN SHORTWAVE DROPPING THROUGH PANHANDLE TOWARD CENTRAL
MTNS. COLD CLOUD TOPS FILLING IN OVER CENTRAL MTNS WITH
OBSERVATIONS INDICATING SNOW UPSTREAM OF FCST AREA. TREND OF FCST
STILL CONTINUES WITH MODELS PUSHING SNOW OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER AS WRAP AROUND FROM SOUTHERN SHORTWAVE CONTINUES EAST.
LIGHT SNOW STILL PROGGED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL MTNS
THROUGH ROUGHLY 09Z. HEAVIEST BAND OF SNOW DEVELOPS ALONG/BEHIND
COLD FRONT/CONVERGENT LINE AS IT SAGS SOUTH THROUGH SNAKE PLAIN
BETWEEN 09Z-15Z. LATEST HRRR RUNS SHIFT THIS LINE QUICKLY
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO EASTERN MAGIC VALLEY/SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHLANDS LEAVING
WEAK UPSLOPE CONDITIONS ALONG I-15/I86 CORRIDOR. HAVE MADE SOME
MINOR MODIFICATIONS TO FCST FOR TONIGHT TO TREND WITH CURRENT
RADAR/SATELLITE. WINTER WX ADVISORIES IN GOOD SHAPE SO NO CHANGES
TO HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. DMH


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 134 PM MST MON MAR 2 2015/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON POWERFUL FAST MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE
TONIGHT AND EXIT THE REGION BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM
TO BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING.
MEANWHILE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF THE REGION WILL
BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO...AROUND THE SODA
SPRINGS AREA THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE IN THE UPPER
SNAKE PLAIN AND UPPER SNAKE HIGHLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TO AROUND THE
POCATELLO AREA AROUND SUNRISE. THIS FRONT WILL EXIT THE AREA BY
NOON. VERY QUICK HITTING ROUND OF SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE SNOW
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN FLUCTUATING QUITE A BIT. LATEST MODELS DID COME
DOWN A LITTLE ON THE AMOUNTS...BUT STILL LOOKING AT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS THE EASTERN SNAKE PLAIN AND EASTERN HIGHLANDS. WIND
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONT AS WELL WHICH
COULD CREATE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING ISSUES. WILL CONTINUE THE
ADVISORY BECAUSE IT MAY CREATE PROBLEMS FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING
COMMUTE...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE HASNT BEEN MUCH SNOW IN A WHILE.
SEEM TO HAVE A REALLY GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING SO WILL TRIM THE
ADVISORY TO START AT 03Z AND END AROUND 21Z.

VALLE

LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEHIND AN
EXITING COLD FRONT. THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF PERIOD EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS AND GRADUAL WARMING TEMPERATURES. EXPECT WELL ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. THE GFS MODEL HAS
DROPPED THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK SYSTEM FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...THE ECMWF MODELS CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. WYATT

AVIATION...LOOK FOR VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...A SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW ACROSS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. EXPECT IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY LATE
EVENING THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MAINLY KIDA AND KPIH
AND TO AN LESSER EXTENT FOR KBYI AND KSUN. ALSO...LOOK FOR BREEZY
WINDS ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW. WYATT

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY IDZ020-021.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM MST TUESDAY IDZ019-023.

&&

$$






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