Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 241538

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
938 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016

.UPDATE...Shifted some of the higher chances of precipitation over
the Snake Plain this afternoon based on apparent track of showers
in satellite imagery and the 12Z NAM model run. RS


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 251 AM MDT MON OCT 24 2016/

SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night.
Strong upper level system off the Pacific Coast allowing extensive
moisture to be pulled into Idaho on southwest flow aloft. Expect
rain showers to overspread the southern and eastern highlands this
morning and the remainder of southeast Idaho this afternoon. Snow
levels will range from 9 to 11 thousand feet so do not expect too
many travel issues even at pass level. Expect the showers to
continue overnight tonight and again Tuesday but should not see as
much amount wise or coverage wise on Tuesday with the brunt of it
in the mountains. Upper ridge builds on Wednesday and expect
widespread dry conditions. Temperatures will remain above normal
through Wednesday with slightly cooler conditions than yesterday
expected with the precipitation and cloud cover expected today and
Tuesday. By Wednesday high temperatures should again be over 10
degrees above normal.

LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday night. The GFS and ECMWF are at
odds with each other thru the entire extended period. They are
relatively similar with the Pac storm systems moving into the
NW... but far apart on the timing. Thu is about the only point of
agreement with both models showing dry SW flow...and a deep upper
trof moving into the west coast. The ECMWF is faster with the
precip...beginning late Thu night as opposed to Fri with the GFS.
The ECMWF is a little more persistent with the precip on
Sat...while the GFS clears most of it out of the fcst area. The
GFS brings the next wave of precip in by Sun morn...while the
ECMWF holds off until Sun night. Both models do carry the precip
into Mon. Mon night is dry on the ECMWF with a broad upper ridge
over the Rockies/Great Basin... while the GFS has a southern
stream trof over the Great Basin with precip along the ID/UT
border. Only choice is to stay close to the current extended pops
until the models settle down. Hedges

AVIATION...Showers over northern UT early this morn will spread
into ID by aftn as a strong storm system moves into the Pac NW. The
best chances will be over the southern and eastern highlands. Cigs
are expected to remain VFR except for KDIJ where ocnl MVFR cigs are
possible this aftn and eve. Hedges


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

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