Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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000
FXUS65 KPIH 270849
AFDPIH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE POCATELLO ID
249 AM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
UPPER LOW IN WEST CENTRAL UTAH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST TODAY. A BIT
OF MOISTURE STILL EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF IDAHO TO
PERSIST AND HAVE INCLUDED SOME ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN
THAT REGION. EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND DRY CONDITIONS
THURSDAY WITH ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION IN EXTREME NORTHERN PARTS
OF CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EXPECTED IN LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
EXPECT SOME MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY IN
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND UPPER SNAKE RIVER HIGHLANDS MAINLY AS
UPPER TROF FROM PACIFIC MOVES THROUGH IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH FRIDAY.
GK

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
UPPER TROF PUSHES EAST SATURDAY DRAGGING THROUGH WEAK COLD FRONT.
EXPECT SOME MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BUT SHOULD START DRYING OUT BY LATE
SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY AS
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SHOULD BEGIN TO MODERATE AGAIN
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BACK TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
GK

&&

.AVIATION...STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS HAS MOVED IN AND DO NOT
EXPECT ANY WEATHER IMPACTS AT THE VARIOUS AIRDROMES. HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING IN TONIGHT WILL SUSTAIN EXCELLENT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT
LEAST FRI...AT MOST OCCASIONAL MID-LEVEL CIGS WITH UNRESTRICTED
VSBYS. MESSICK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
IDAHO...VERY STABLE AND MUCH DRIER ATMOSPHERE HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHERN IDAHO. LOOK FOR THE TEMPERATURES TO RISE ABOVE NORMAL BY
THU...THE FIRST TIME IN WEEKS. THE AIR MASS WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE
UNDER THE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES...AND BY FRI THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE SALMON-CHALLIS NF AREA.
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA ON SAT...AND THIS
SHOULD BRING IN SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE AND MORE
INSTABILITY...INCREASING THE THUNDERSTORM THREAT AND STRONG WINDS
SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE HUMIDITY SHOULD STAY IN A SAFE
ZONE...ABOVE THE 15 PERCENT THRESHOLD FOR RED FLAG CRITERIA.
TEMPERATURES JUST NOT WARMING UP ENOUGH TO PUSH THE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY TO VERY LOW NUMBERS. THUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
FOR FIRE STARTS...BUT THIS BARELY RISES TO MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANE PROBABILITIES.  MESSICK

&&

.PIH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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