Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 301603

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
1003 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016

.UPDATE...Quick update this morning to boost shower and isolated
thunderstorm potential through today from Island Park down into
the Teton Valley. This is supported by recent observational trends
of developing showers around Island Park. A secondary disturbance
rotating towards the MT border region around a trough/closed low
dropping into MT today has been effective at generating enough
lift to support shower development, despite modest moisture. Just
enough instability generation is expected today to support an
isolated thunderstorm this afternoon in this area, thus have added
slight chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. The rest of the
forecast appears to be in good shape. AD/Hedges


.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 213 AM MDT MON MAY 30 2016/

DISCUSSION...Surface cold front will be pushing through the area
this morning but will come with no appreciable moisture. Strong
subsidence in the mid-levels should suppress most convection
across the area. Post-frontal winds are enough to warrant keeping
the Lake Wind Advisory in effect for today, though models have
been trending downward with windspeeds. Winds will swing around
from the north/northeast tomorrow and may present another day of
Lake Wind criteria to the American Falls Reservoir.

For the rest of the week and into next week, a strong ridge of
high pressure will continue to keep dry and warm conditions in the
forecast. GFS and ECMWF present similar solutions with regards to
the amplitude and location of the ridge, though the ECMWF has been
somewhat stronger in previous runs. Guidance is pushing highs near
90 degrees next weekend. Hinsberger

AVIATION...Dry conditions expected across east Idaho today with VFR
conditions through tonight. Surface gradient behind front will
strengthen today and winds 15-20kts through the Snake Plain can be
expected this afternoon and early evening. DMH

FIRE WEATHER...The shortwave axis and associated cold front have
moved through east Idaho. Tightened surface gradient behind the
front will allow for breezy to locally windy conditions through the
Snake Plain. Otherwise a ridge of high pressure will build into the
region for the remainder of the week. Temperatures will warm above
seasonable levels by the end of the week with daytime humidities
falling into the teens in most locations. DMH


.PIH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for IDZ021.


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