Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 162057

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
157 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday.
A weak system will move into the area tonight. This region is
rapidly weakening as it moves east and we`re expecting not much
more than an outside chance of a snow shower at high elevations. A
cold front will arrive on Thursday. Models continue to show quite
a bit of precipitation along the front. Snow levels look high to
start, generally above 7000 feet. As the front slides through the
area Thursday night and Friday, expect snow levels to fall to
around 5000 feet. So, there`s a chance for snow across the Snake
Plain early Friday morning as the precipitation exits the area,
better chances around McCammon, Soda Springs, Montpelier. Total
snowfall amounts are expected to be around 3 to 7 inches north of
Ketchum to Stanley with 1 to 4 inches likely across the eastern
highland communities. Snow levels are the main driver for this
event and will dictate who gets snow and how much. We expect
breezy conditions to develop so where snow does fall, there may be
blowing and drifting snow issues.


.LONG TERM...Friday night through Tuesday.
Models are still hinting that a convergence band could set up
behind an exiting system, potentially bringing light to moderate
valley snow across the Snake River plain Friday night. Otherwise,
expect light snow in Northwest flow across the northern Central
mountains and Upper Snake river plain Friday night into Saturday.

Models have come in better agreement with the system moving
through Sunday night into Monday, though the ECMWF model does not
show as much moisture as the GFS model. Expect moderate mountain
snow and light, possibly more, valley snow with this system. Look
for lingering mountain snow in Northwest flow on Monday night into

Expect slightly above normal temperatures Saturday through Monday
before dropping to near normal to slightly below normal by



.AVIATION...Expect VFR conditions through most of the period. A
weak system moving through the area will bring near MVFR
conditions for KSUN late this afternoon into early this evening.
Look for MVFR conditions for KIDA by tomorrow morning and near
MVFR conditions for the rest of the sites by tomorrow morning
with this weak system.




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