Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 242007

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
207 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Upper ridge continues
to migrate slowly east through Sunday, stretched across the state
by Sunday night. A bit of an increase in mid level moisture by
Sunday afternoon, where the GFS is trying to induce weak
convection. So far this is the only solution that appears to be
trying to develop anything. There is enough instability, just not
enough moisture to drive anything more than a few afternoon build
ups. Bears watching as apex of ridge drives across the region.
Until then, have kept trend of increasing temperatures across the
forecast area. DMH

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday. Better moisture arrives
Monday as ridge axis shifts east ahead of approaching Pacific
trough. Good instability Monday afternoon and evening with the
warmest temps of the week, especially across the central
mountains and towards the Divide. Frontal boundary helps to
provide focus for convection as well. Model QPF greatest in the
evening, with possibility of wetting rains with the thunderstorms.
NAM significantly wetter than the GFS with PW pushing 0.75-1.00
inch compared to 0.5-0.75. Upper trough slowly pushes across the
region with another round of convection Tuesday afternoon/evening,
focused more to the Divide and along the WY border. Post frontal
environment breezy and slightly cooler. Model PW values similar
at this point, 0.5-0.75 inch but still sufficient to support
wetting rains in heavier storms. East Idaho remains under the
influence of upper trough into Wednesday as upper low stays well
north into Canada, and could be sufficient moisture to keep one
more weaker round of convection across higher elevation areas late
in the day. Ridge shifts inland Thursday- Saturday with coolest
temps of the week (near normal) Thursday shifting back to a
warming but dry trend for the rest of the forecast period. DMH


.AVIATION...Will have continued clear skies with light winds
expected through Sunday.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect continued warming and drying conditions
Sunday with light winds continuing.   Monday looks to be a more
active day with Haines index of 6 becoming widespread as well as low
humidity under 15 percent and isolated to scattered thunderstorms in
zones 475, 476 and 422.  A cold front is expected to move through
Idaho Monday night and expect breezy to windy conditions Tuesday
behind the front.  After very warm conditions Monday, temperatures
will drop significantly on Tuesday with much higher minimum
humidity as well.



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