Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
000
FXPQ60 PGUM 230605
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
405 PM CHST WED APR 23 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...NORTHEAST TRADE-WINDS AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAIL OVER THE MARIANAS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE FORECAST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA IS WEAKENING. BEFORE THE RIDGE ENDS ITS INFLUENCE
ON THE AREA DRY AIR ASSOCIATED WITH IT WILL KEEP SHOWERS TO A
MINIMUM TONIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALL THAT IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A CIRCULATION BETWEEN CHUUK AND POHNPEI
WILL MOVE WESTWARD. MODELS SHOW THIS CIRCULATION PASSING SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA FRIDAY. MODELS DEBATE ON HOW CLOSE IT WILL GET TO
THE MARIANAS. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING
NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION OVER THE AREA. MODELS SHOW A CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY. THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION HAVE MOVED SLIGHTLY NORTH OF 10N THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS LOOKS PROMISING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE MARIANAS THIS
WEEKEND CONFIDENCE IS NOT SO HIGH. THINGS COULD CHANGE AND KEEP
THESE SHOWERS SOUTH OF GUAM. WILL WAIT AND SEE BEFORE GOING FOR
SCATTERED OVER THE MARIANAS. DO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EAST TRADE-WIND SWELL AND A NORTH SWELL WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST. THE EAST SWELL WILL BE LARGE ENOUGH
TO GENERATE A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK ON EAST FACING REEFS THE
NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION
SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI NEAR 7N158E WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE
FOR POHNPEI AND KOSRAE STATES. FOR POHNPEI...SCATTERED SHOWERS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING BECOMING ISOLATED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AS THE DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN A
WESTWARD DIRECTION. MODELS SHOW KOSRAE STATE IN BETWEEN POCKETS
OF RAINBANDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AS THE CIRCULATION MOVES OUT
OF THE REGION. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE COMING IN FROM THE EAST
WILL BRING A FEW MORE SHOWERS TO KOSRAE STATE FOR THE FIRST HALF
OF SUNDAY. FOR MAJURO...MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD TRADE-WIND SHOWERS
WILL BE ISOLATED BECOMING SCATTERED SUNDAY AND TAPERING OFF BY
MONDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
YAP STATE WILL MAINTAIN A DRIER TREND WITH THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL
TROUGH JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
AS THE CIRCULATION SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK MOVES WEST-NORTHWEST THE
WESTERN BANDS WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SATURDAY
FOR YAP. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PROVIDED SOME SHOWERS FOR KOROR
TODAY BUT DRIER CONDITIONS WILL KICK IN THIS EVENING. THE ARRIVAL
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL TROUGH ON FRIDAY WILL BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS TO THE REPUBLIC. CHUUK STATE HAS BEEN FEELING THE EFFECTS
OF A CIRCULATION TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH UP TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN IN
SOME AREAS TODAY. A DRIER PATTERN WILL FALL INTO PLACE OVERNIGHT
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE CIRCULATION EXITS CHUUK
WATERS TOWARDS THE WEST.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

ZIOBRO/M. AYDLETT





USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.