Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 250553
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
353 PM CHST SAT OCT 25 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
LATEST ASCAT ANALYSIS REVEALS WEAK SURFACE TROUGHS TO THE WEST OF
THE MARIANAS NEAR 140E AND TO THE EAST OF THE MARIANAS NEAR 150E.
A VIGOROUS TUTT CELL IS CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE NORTHERN CNMI AT
18N144E. WATER VAPOR LOOP SUGGESTS DYNAMICS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF
THE CELL HAVE BEEN IMPROVING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. RADAR
AND SATELLITE INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST OF GUAM OVER THE MARINE ZONES.
SHOWER COVERAGE REMAINS ISOLATED...FOR NOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
INGREDIENTS APPEAR TO BE FALLING INTO PLACE FOR THE FORMATION OF
AN MCS NEAR OR OVER THE FORECAST ZONES LATER THIS EVENING OR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...RADAR AND SATELLITE COVERAGE...AS WELL AS
INITIAL MODEL SOLUTIONS...BOTH SUGGEST SHOWER COVERAGE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IN THE
NEAR TERM FORECAST IS LOW. EVENING SHIFT WILL NEED TO MONITOR
RADAR AND SATELLITE FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES. AFTER TONIGHT...MOIST
UNSETTLED PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS
DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED IN THE TRADES PASS THROUGH. GFS BRINGS
DRIER TRADES IN ON THURSDAY...BUT ECMWF SLOWLY DEVELOPS A MONSOON
DEPRESSION IN THE PHILIPPINE SEA NEXT WEEK...THEN KEEPS THE
FORECAST ZONES IN MOIST FLOW FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE FIRST WEEK
OF NOVEMBER. WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN TOWARD THE GFS...UNLESS
SATELLITE TRENDS CONFIRM THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO THE ONGOING NARRATIVE. LATEST ALTIMETRY AND BUOY
READINGS CONFIRM LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL BETWEEN 6 AND 7 FEET
CONTINUING TO ARRIVE. STILL EXPECT SURF TO BEGIN SUBSIDING LATER
TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW ADVISORY HEIGHTS ON SUNDAY.
NEXT POSSIBLE HIGH SURF EVENT ON THE HORIZON WOULD BE ANOTHER
LONG PERIOD NORTHEAST SWELL EVENT TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE ADDED LATER.


&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...WILL BE ADDED LATER.


&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

MCELROY/DEVITA





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