Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 302031
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
631 AM CHST THU JUL 31 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
IR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT TROPICAL STORM HALONG...CENTERED
ABOUT 170 MILES WNW OF GUAM NEAR 14.5N 143E...IS STILL STRUGGLING
WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS AND DRY AIR...AND HAS WEAKENED
SLIGHTLY THE LAST FEW HOURS AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE MARIANAS.
LOCALLY...WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 15-20 KT AND SEAS ARE DOWN TO 9 FT
AT THE RITIDIAN BUOY AND STILL FALLING. RADAR SHOWS MULTIPLE LINES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEING KICKED EASTWARD OUT OF HALONG
AND MOVING ACROSS GUAM AND ROTA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER ORIGINALLY GOING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...HAVE ALREADY UPDATED FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR GUAM AND
ROTA...AS HALONG HAS BEEN SPITTING OUT LINES OF SHOWERS THAT HAVE
CONSOLIDATED INTO QUITE A WIDE BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THUS...HAVE INSERTED SCATTERED SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST THIS MORNING FOR GUAM AND ROTA. OTHERWISE...THE NEXT FEW
DAYS SHOULD SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
MODERATE WINDS. LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE FORECAST AFTER
TODAY...AND WE SHOULD SEE A RESPITE OF A WEEK OR MORE OF FAIRLY
QUIET WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...
BASED ON LATEST BUOYS...TOOK A COUPLE OF FEET OFF THE TOTAL SEAS
THE NEXT TWO DAYS...AND WITH RITIDIAN DOWN TO 9 FEET...SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY MAY COME DOWN A LITTLE EARLY. HIGH SURF IS STILL GOOD
THROUGH AT LEAST SUN MORNING...AND MAYBE A BIT LONGER.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST EAST OF POHNPEI IS MAINTAINING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT POHNPEI THIS MORNING.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN FARTHER EAST ACROSS KOSRAE STATE WHILE
DRIER WEATHER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS. THE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY HEAD WEST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. CONVERGENCE
EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN PLACE AT KOSRAE AND POHNPEI AT LEAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. DRIER
WEATHER WILL BUILD WESTWARD FROM THE MARSHALL ISLANDS ON SATURDAY.
AT MAJURO...FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND SPOTTY CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EAST OF MAJURO ALONG THE DATE LINE.
MODELS DO VERY LITTLE WITH THIS FEATURE...KEEPING MOST OF THE
WEATHER OVER THE NORTHERN MARSHALL ISLANDS AS IT MOVES WEST. FOR
NOW...WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
FAIR WEATHER REMAINS IN PLACE THIS MORNING AT CHUUK BUT A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE NEAR POHNPEI WILL BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE STATE TONIGHT. THE DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY PASS
OVER CHUUK BEFORE TURNING TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. WEAK RIDGING WILL PROMOTE DRIER WEATHER THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AGAIN...ONLY FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE YAP AND KOROR FORECASTS.
TROPICAL STORM HALONG CENTERED ABOUT 490 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AT
14N143E CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST THIS MORNING. RIDGING SOUTH OF HALONG
WILL KEEP DRY AND PLEASANT WEATHER IN PLACE AT KOROR AND YAP TODAY.
MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS NEAR THE PERIPHERY OF HALONG WILL SPREAD
OVER YAP TODAY. MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE AT YAP TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS HALONG CONTINUES
WEST. HALONG IS PROGGED TO TURN NORTHWEST BY SATURDAY WHILE
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING. THIS WILL INCREASE THE MONSOON FLOW ACROSS
YAP AND KOROR OVER THE WEEKEND BUT DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THEN.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CHST SUNDAY FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CHST FRIDAY FOR
     PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/M. AYDLETT





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