Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 030802
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
602 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
FRESH TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE PRESENT
ACROSS THE MARIANAS. AS FAR AS WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM
IS CONCERNED...IT IS STILL CENTERED ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
GUAM NEAR 10.9N AND 148.5E...DRIFTING NORTH-NORTHEAST. BUT
CHAN-HOM IS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER FULLY
EXPOSED A HUNDRED MILES OR SO EAST OF ITS DEEP CONVECTION.
MEANWHILE...A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NORTH OF MAJURO IS NOW THE
SUBECT OF A JTWC TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RIGHT NOW CHAN-HOM IS HARDLY EVEN RECOGNIZABLE ON VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A TROPICAL STORM AND IT CLEARLY HAS A LOT OF
WORK TO DO IF IT IS EVER GOING TO REACH THE MARIANAS AS A TROPICAL
STORM...LET ALONE A TYPHOON. FOR NOW THE FORECAST HAS BEEN
ADJUSTED TO FIT THE LATEST FORECAST FROM JTWC...MAINLY GOING WITH
SOMEWHAT WEAKER WINDS THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...AND DELAYING THE
ONSET OF HEAVY RAIN ABOUT 12 HOURS TO SATURDAY NIGHT. BUT ALL OF
THIS HANGS ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY WHICH ARE BOTH
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.

ONCE CHAN-HOM CLEARS THE MARIANAS SUNDAY NIGHT OR SO...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO KEEP WESTERLY MONSOON FLOW ACROSS THE MARIANAS AS THE
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR MAJURO DEVELOPS AND EVENTUALLY MOVES WNW
ON A TRACK THAT TAKES IT NORTH OF THE MARIANAS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THIS MONSOON FLOW WILL LIKELY BE ACCOMPANIED BY BANDS OF
HEAVY SHOWERS THAT COULD PERSIST ACROSS THE MARIANAS THROUGH
THURSDAY. FOR NOW HAVE EXTENDED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
TUESDAY...BUT THE SHOWERS MAY PERSIST A DAY OR TWO BEYOND THAT IF
THE MODELS ARE CORRECT.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE BEEN RUNNING NEAR 12 FEET AT IPAN BUOY ALL DAY...AND
AROUND 7 FEET AT THE SAIPAN BUOY. SEAS WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...AND MAY STILL EXCEED 20 FEET IF CHAN-HOM DOES
INDEED RE-INTENSIFY AND MOVE INTO THE MARIANAS WATERS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SCATTEROMETER DATA AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE 97W...NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION
ALERT ISSUED BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER...CENTERED JUST
NORTH OF MAJURO COASTAL WATERS. THIS SYSTEM IS ON THE EASTERN END
OF AN IMPRESSIVE MONSOON TROUGH. A LARGE SWATH OF STRONG TO NEAR
GALE SOUTHWEST WINDS SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF 97W MOVED OVER MAJURO
TODAY WHERE SOME DAMAGE TO BOATS AND TREES OCCURRED...AND SOME
COASTAL INUNDATION OCCURRED AS WELL. CONDITIONS AT MAJURO WILL
IMPROVE STEADILY SATURDAY AS 97W MOVES TO THE NORTHWEST AND LIKELY
DEVELOPS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MAJURO FOR THE REST OF THE WEEKEND AS A DRIER TRADE-
WIND PATTERN RETURNS TO THE MARSHALL ISLANDS.

ACTIVE MONSOON WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AT KOSRAE TONIGHT AND POHNPEI
THROUGH SATURDAY. WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH SUBSIDING
WINDS AND SEAS NEXT WEEK WITH 97W PASSING WELL TO THE NORTH OF BOTH
LOCATIONS.

ROUGH SEAS AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONTINUE FOR ALL FORECAST LOCATIONS
ALONG SOUTH AND WEST FACING REEFS. AS WEATHER IMPROVES AND
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A TRADE WIND PATTERN NEXT WEEK...EXPECT
SOUTHWEST SWELL AND WIND WAVES TO FALL AND SURF TO FALL BELOW
HAZARDOUS LEVELS AT ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
CHUUK WILL REMAIN IN AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. MODELS SHOW SOMEWHAT DRIER CONDITIONS MOVING INTO CHUUK STATE
LATE SATURDAY OR SUNDAY AS MONSOON-RELATED CONVECTION PUSHES NORTH
OF CHUUK WATERS. HOWEVER...MODELS SHOW MORE ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNING
POSSIBLY BY TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS 97W PASSES NORTH OF CHUUK BUT
UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN THIS SCENARIO SO LEFT ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
FOR CHUUK IN THE LONG TERM FOR NOW.

PERSISTENT WEST TO SOUTHWEST MONSOON WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS
PALAU AND YAP STATE WELL INTO NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW A CONVECTIVE
BAND SETTING UP OVER YAP AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EACH
DAY DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CONVECTIVE BAND DEVELOPS.

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM HAS GENERATED IMPRESSIVE SWELL AND WIND
WAVES THAT ARE AFFECTING THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST FACING REEFS OF
CHUUK. SURF HAS RISEN TO DANGEROUS LEVELS PROMPTING AN UPGRADE TO
HIGH SURF WARNING. SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL BELOW 15 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OR EVENING BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG MONSOON FLOW ACROSS YAP AND KOROR
WILL CONTINUE TO GENERATE SWELL AND WIND WAVES THAT WILL RESULT IN A
PROLONGED HAZARDOUS SURF EVENT FOR BOTH YAP AND KOROR. HAZARDOUS
SURF IS EXPECTED AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS ON WEST AND
SOUTHWEST FACING SHORES. IN ADDITION...SEAS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
SMALL CRAFT SO THE SMALL CRAFT HEADLINE FOR YAP AND KOROR WAS
CONTINUED.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...TYPHOON WATCH FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...TYPHOON WATCH FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MIDDLEBROOKE/WILLIAMS



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