Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXPQ60 PGUM 261932
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
532 AM CHST SAT DEC 27 2014

.MARIANAS SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE TROUGHING HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE WEST...OPENING THE DOOR
FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO MOVE IN FROM THE EAST. RADAR AND SATELLITE
SHOW A VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER THE FORECAST ZONE AND EASTWARD TO
150E. ONLY MINOR TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCES ARE EVIDENT BETWEEN 150E
AND THE DATE LINE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
REDUCED FIRST PERIOD POPS AND CLOUD COVER PER SYNOPSIS ABOVE.
OTHERWISE...LEFT INHERITED FORECAST INTACT. DRY TRADE-WIND
PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO ASSERT ITSELF THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO TRIM POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FROM TIME TO
TIME DURING THE COMING WEEK...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT ANY
SUCH ADJUSTMENTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
ASCAT IMAGERY SHOWS WINDS CONTINUING TO TAPER OFF OVER THE MARINE
ZONES...BUT BUOY READINGS CONTINUE TO STUBBORNLY HANG ON TO SEAS
NEAR THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLD. STILL EXPECT SEAS TO
FINALLY GIVE WAY AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO RETIRE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. AFTER TODAY...SEAS SHOULD GRADUALLY
SUBSIDE WITH MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK PREVAILING ON ALL BUT
WEST-FACING REEFS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CIRRUS DEBRIS ACROSS THE REGION WHILE
CONVECTION REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST ZONES.
SOUNDINGS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICT A DRY AIR MASS OVER THE
REGION. A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN WILL PERSIST ON MAJURO THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WILL EDGE NORTHWARD TOWARD KOSRAE SUNDAY
AND TOWARD POHNPEI BY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF KOSRAE AND POHNPEI THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TRADE-WIND SWELL AND WAVES CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW
SURF TO FALL BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS ON MAJURO THIS EVENING. EAST
SWELL AND WAVES WILL REMAIN LARGE ENOUGH TO PROLONG HAZARDOUS SURF
ON KOSRAE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND REGIME WILL CONTINUE ON CHUUK THROUGH MONDAY.
GFS INDICATES A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY EMBEDDED WITHIN A TRADE-
WIND CONVERGENCE ZONE SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE WILL ARRIVE NEAR CHUUK
ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...ECMWF MAINTAINS A MORE SOUTHERLY COURSE FOR
THE DISTURBANCE SO LEFT ANY MAJOR IMPACTS OUT OF THE CHUUK
FORECAST FOR NOW. A DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST SOUTHWEST OF KOROR
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE PHILIPPINES. DEEP
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE HAS SHIFTED NORTHWEST
OF KOROR WATERS WITH CONTINUED CLEARING OBSERVED UPSTREAM. MODELS
INDICATE SHOWERS COULD REDEVELOP EAST OF THE DISTURBANCE LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH DRIER WEATHER SLATED FOR BOTH YAP AND
KOROR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS
                  EVENING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

MCELROY/WILLIAMS






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