Area Forecast Discussion
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771
FXPQ60 PGUM 141936
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
536 AM CHST MON FEB 15 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRESH TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OVER
THE MARIANAS. TANAPAG BUOY SHOWS SEAS AVERAGING BETWEEN 9 AND 11
FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN IS NOW IN PLACE OVER THE MARIANAS. THE SHEAR
LINE HAS DISSIPATED TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ONLY CHANGES MADE TO THE INHERITED GRIDS AND
FORECAST WAS TO EXTEND MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT NOON
TODAY BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE DATA.

&&

.MARINE...
RESIDUAL LONG PERIOD NORTH SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDOUS
SURF CONDITIONS ON NORTH FACING REEFS TODAY. SURF IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW HAZARDOUS LEVELS THIS EVENING THOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE THAT
THE HIGH SURF COULD REMAIN A LITTLE LONGER. BASED ON LATEST BUOY
READINGS WITH TANAPAG SHOWING COMBINED SEAS HOLDING STEADY BETWEEN 9
AND 11 FEET WITH OCCASIONAL MAX WAVE HEIGHTS OF UP TO 18 FEET THIS
MORNING...CHOSE TO EXTEND THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY OUT ANOTHER 12
HOURS.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
THE SHEAR LINE HAS DROPPED A BIT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND THE
WESTERN END NOW SITS JUST NORTH OF CHUUK AND CURVES EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD. A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE IS SEEN BETWEEN KOSRAE AND
MAJURO WITH HEAVIEST SHOWERS FOUND JUST SOUTHWEST OF MAJURO. THE
DISTURBANCE WILL SLOWLY MOVE WESTWARD WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
GRADUALLY TAPERING TODAY. KOSRAE WILL SEE CONTINUED WET WEATHER
THROUGH TUESDAY. POHNPEI AND CHUUK WILL SEE INCREASED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MIDWEEK BUT THE BULK OF SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO STAY JUST TO THE SOUTH. DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
RESUME IN THE LONG TERM ACROSS THE REGION.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN PLACE AT CHUUK...POHNPEI...KOSRAE
AND MAJURO. WHILE WINDS WILL DECREASE IN THE SHORT TERM...COMBINED
SEAS WILL BE MUCH SLOWER TO DECREASE DUE TO PERSISTENT TRADE-WIND
SWELL AND LONG-PERIOD NORTH SWELL. SIMILARLY...HAZARDOUS SURF
CONTINUES AT ALL 4 LOCATIONS AS WELL.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
DISCUSSION FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST IS INCLUDED IN EASTERN MICRONESIA
DUE TO A SIMILAR WEATHER PATTERN AND SEA STATE.

DRY WEATHER HAS RETURNED TO YAP AND KOROR. THE SHEAR LINE HAS
DISSIPATED IN THE VICINITY AND WINDS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECREASE.
COMPUTER MODELS SHOW CONTINUED DRY WEATHER FOR THE WEEK WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN WINDS OR COMBINED SEAS BETWEEN 6 AND 8 FEET.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR GUZ001>004.

MARIANAS WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CHST THIS EVENING FOR PMZ151>154.

&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/W. AYDLETT



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