Area Forecast Discussion
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603
FXPQ60 PGUM 060548
AFDPQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
348 PM CHST FRI MAY 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LATEST VIS SATELLITE PICTURE SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE
MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS PREVAIL
OVER THE REGION. A FEW SHOWERS ARE EVIDENT ON LATEST PGUA WSR-88D
PRODUCTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SATELLITE DATA SHOWS A BAND OF MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE MARIANAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE CLOUDS
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA OVERNIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUN SHOWS
A FAIRLY DRY PATTERN OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO...WITH LITTLE OR NO
RAINFALL THROUGH MOST OF THE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TANAPAG AND IPAN BUOYS ARE SHOWING SEAS BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET.
WAVE WATCH MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL BE THE CASE THROUGH MOST OF
THE NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...LOWERED THE EASTERLY SWELL BY ABOUT 1
FOOT THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS...WITH COMBINED SEAS REMAINING
BETWEEN 5 AND 7 FEET INTO NEXT WEEK. MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS
WILL BECOME GENTLE TO MODERATE OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE RETURNING TO GUAM THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
LUCKILY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW RED FLAG CRITERIA...
LIMITING THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE RAPID SPREAD OF WILD FIRES. THE
KBDI CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLIMB IN EXTREME RANGE AND IS CURRENTLY
AT 768.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
ALTHOUGH WEATHER REMAINS DRY FOR MAJURO AND THE NORTHERN RMI...
SATELLITE WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW THE UPPER-AIR FLOW HAS BEEN
TRANSITIONING TOWARD A PATTERN THAT SHOULD MEAN MORE SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHERN PARTS OF MICRONESIA. TODAY...VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE NEAR KOSRAE IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH OF POHNPEI TO SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE...AND
SOME SHOWERS WERE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD UP TO 10N-11N ACROSS NORTHERN
CHUUK AND POHNPEI STATES. GFS MODEL INDICATES THAT SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND TO CHUUK STATE BY ABOUT SATURDAY OR SUNDAY.
A DISTURBANCE CENTERED JUST EAST OF TARAWA ALONG WITH A PATTERN OF
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE CURRENTLY JUST SOUTHEAST AND FARTHER EAST OF
MAJURO IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD SPOTTY SHOWERS WESTWARD BETWEEN 3N AND
8N IN THE COMING DAYS...AND THAT SHOULD HELP PROLONG SHOWERY WEATHER
FOR KOSRAE...POHNPEI AND CHUUK INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
REASONING FOR THE CHUUK FORECAST CAN BE FOUND UNDER EASTERN
MICRONESIA ABOVE.

TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN PATCHY AREAS FROM SOUTH OF KOROR TO WELL SOUTHEAST
OF YAP. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER FAR WESTERN MICRONESIA. GFS MODEL INDICATES
SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP NORTHWEST ACROSS KOROR DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS...AND HOPEFULLY TO YAP STATE BY ABOUT SUNDAY OR MONDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...NONE.
MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

KLEESCHULTE/SIMPSON



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