Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 251119

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 AM EDT TUE OCT 25 2016

High pressure will extend into our region today through Wednesday. A
cold front will approach from the west on Thursday.


.NEAR TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

In the wake of a dry cold front that crossed central NC Monday
evening, high pressure will build into the area today and settle
overhead tonight. Low level cold air advection will result in
afternoon temperatures a solid 10-15 degrees cooler compared to high
temperatures recorded on Monday. Subsidence associated with the high
will yield sunny skies. Surface winds out of the north or northeast
will initially be on the breezy side to start the day with
occasional gusts 13-18kts probable through mid day.

Tonight, with the sfc high overhead, expect clear skies and near
calm sfc winds. This will set the stage for excellent nocturnal
cooling conditions, leading to overnight temps in the upper 30s-
lower 40s with the coolest min temps over the north and west. Cannot
rule out the possibility of isolated patches of light frost in
vicinity of the Virginia border or near the Yadkin River valley
south of the Triad, though potential appears too remote to mention
in the forecast or to issue an advisory.


.SHORT TERM /Wednesday and Wednesday night/...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

Surface high over the region Wednesday moves east and offshore
Wednesday night. The return southerly flow on the back side of the
high will strengthen late Wednesday night as a sfc cold front
associated with a s/w crossing the Great Lakes approaches. This low
level flow will advect moisture into the lowest 10k ft of the
atmosphere, leading to an increased probability of low-mid level
cloudiness late Wednesday night. While clouds will be on the
increase Wednesday night, the moisture layer and available lift
appear too minimal to support any shower development through
daybreak Thursday.

High temperatures Wednesday afternoon should be comparable to high
temps expected this afternoon, basically in the mid-upper 60s.
Increasing cloudiness Wednesday night and a light sly sfc wind will
lead to overnight temps several degree warmer compared to tonight.
Low temperatures Wednesday night in the 45-50 degree range.


.LONG TERM /Thursday through Monday/...
As of 305 AM Tuesday...

Shortwave energy will cross the Great Lakes Thursday and head toward
the Northeast. The associated cold front will cross the area late
Thursday/early Friday. Moisture will be sufficient to support
showers, though best dynamics remain to the north and instability is
limited. Winds will shift to NW behind the front, though no
appreciable CAA will follow, resulting in little impact to
temperatures. Surface high pressure will build across the area
Friday and Saturday, then sink southward over the Gulf Coast Sunday
as another shortwave crosses north of the area. Moisture return with
this system is lacking and a dry frontal passage looks likely at
this time. Normal to above normal temperatures expected through the


As of 720 AM Tuesday...

There is a high probability that VFR conditions will exist across
central NC through Wednesday as high pressure builds into then
settles over the area. North to northeast sfc winds will
occasionally gust between 15-18kts between 13Z-18Z.

This high will drift east late Wednesday ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Southerly return flow will advect low
level moisture, likely resulting in the formation of a low stratus
deck and MVFR ceilings by early Thursday morning. A few showers will
accompany the front late Thursday and Thursday night. Afterwards,
high pressure and associated VFR conditions will return for Friday
and Saturday.





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