Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 192319

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
720 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A ridge of high pressure will hold over the region through the
weekend. A cold front will approach the area from the west early
next week.


As of 245 PM Thursday...

A minor s/w traversing sewd across central NC this afternoon will
exit our region prior to sunset. Rising heights aloft in the wake of
this feature will strengthen the low level ridge over our area
tonight. Thus, expect another starry night with temperatures falling
through the 50s this evening, and into the 40s overnight.


As of 245 PM Thursday...

The strengthening high aloft and associated subsidence coupled with
the sfc ridge will maintain a dry atmosphere across central NC
Friday and Friday night. This dry air will support diurnal
temperature swings of 30-35 degrees. The warming aloft in
conjunction with the ridge at the surface will translate to mild
afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 70s, with a few locations
across the far south possibly reaching 80 degrees.

While temperatures will be in the 70s late Friday afternoon, the dry
air in place will permit temperatures to cool into the 60s early
Friday evening, and solidly in the 50s by midnight. Minimum
temperatures in the upper 40s to around 50 should be common.


As of 255 PM Thursday...

Mid-upper ridging now over the western Gulf will continue to amplify
as it builds up and east across the Atlantic seaboard, to finally
move off the coast late this weekend. Meanwhile, downstream lies a
strong trof which is forecast to deepen as it moves east across the
Plains, and we still have the potential for a cutoff low to separate
from the trof over the Tennessee or the lower Mississippi valley
Sunday night. If this low does indeed cut off (basically the GFS`s
solution), it would enhance the chance for stronger, perhaps severe,
convection in the Monday night/early Tuesday time frame.

At the surface, high pressure over the mid-Atlantic states will
gradually shift offshore, with return flow producing moisture
advection and increasing cloudiness ahead of an approaching cold
front Sunday night in the west, and spreading over central NC on
Monday. Showers will become likely by late day Monday in the west,
with likely PoPs spreading to the eastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain
Monday night. Most of the convective activity will end by later
Tuesday, with potential for some lingering instability showers in
the cold air advection behind the front Tuesday night. Dry and
cooler air will settle into place for midweek.

Temperatures this weekend will be glorious for attending outdoor
activities, with plenty of sun to accompany highs in the mid and
upper 70s. Highs should also reach mostly mid to upper 70s on Monday
with warm southerly flow to offset the lack of sun. Highs Tuesday
should reach upper 60s to lower 70s, with the cooler airmass
stalling highs in the 60s on Wednesday and Thursday. Morning mins
will be in the low and mid 50s through Tuesday morning, with mins in
the 40s on tap for Wednesday and Thursday.


.AVIATION /00Z Friday through Tuesday/...
As of 720 PM Thursday...

High chances and confidence in VFR conditions holding over central
NC for the next 24 hours, with unrestricted vsbys, generally clear
skies, and light winds mainly from the NNE or NE.

Looking beyond 00z Sat, VFR conditions will dominate through the
upcoming weekend, albeit with an increase in high clouds, along with
flat VFR cumulus on Sun. The chance for nighttime sub-VFR fog and
stratus increases Sun evening/night as a warm front pushes onshore
over the Carolinas and tracks to the NW through the area. This is
ahead of an approaching cold front that will bring a good chance of
sub-VFR conditions, showers and storms, and strong/shifting winds
with height starting late Mon and likely to last into Tue. -GIH





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