Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 191132

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
635 AM EST Sun Feb 19 2017

An upper level trough will exit the area later this morning. High
pressure will build into our region behind the exiting low pressure
system tonight and Monday.


As of 255 AM Sunday...

A weakening upper level low will scoot east across our region this
morning, exiting offshore this afternoon. Subsidence on the backside
of this system and a developing low level nw flow will aid to
diminish cloudiness later this morning through the afternoon.

Increasing sunshine and a low level west-sw surface flow will boost
afternoon temperatures back into the 70-75 degree range.

Tonight, high pressure at the surface and aloft will be positioned
to our west-nw, maintaining a tranquil weather pattern. Under mostly
clear skies and a light wind regime, temperatures will drop back
into the low-mid 40s.


As of 255 AM Sunday...

Upper level ridge and attendant sfc ridge will be overhead Monday,
maintaining the dry and very mild conditions. While low level
thicknesses change little in the west, a backdoor cold front will
drop into our northern coastal plain counties by afternoon,
resulting in lower thicknesses compared to this afternoon. This
translates to high temperatures about 3 degrees cooler than today
northeast of Raleigh. High temperatures Monday near 70 northeast to
the mid 70s sw.

Low level ely flow will cause moisture to bank up along the higher
terrain of western NC, leading to the formation of a low stratus
late Monday night. Some of the stratus may spill into our western
counties after midnight, though no precipitation expected at this
time. Min temps near 40 ne to the mid 40s west.


As of 255 AM Sunday...

The upper level ridge over the eastern U.S. will shift east over the
Atlantic as the next weather system approaches from the west. As the
aforementioned system moves east, a closed low will break away from
the northern stream trough late Tuesday and move east-southeast over
the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday (well south of the North Carolina).
Meanwhile, the remnant northern stream trough will move over Central
NC. The strength of the trough and whether it will generate light
rain is still in question, however a slight chance for light rain
cannot be ruled out Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Regardless,
accumulations should be minimal as the best moisture will be well
south of the area. At the surface, the high that had been ridging
into the region will push eastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast on
Tuesday, resulting in a more southeasterly then southerly return
flow setting up over Central NC. The lingering dry air over the
region may help keep rain from reaching the ground Tuesday night.
Warm advection will increase as the southerly flow increases,
resulting in a moderating temperature trend for Tuesday through
Friday night. With the continued surge of warm air and the frontal
passage not expected until the weekend, temperatures will remain
well above normal through Friday night (highs in the mid to upper
60s Tuesday, increasing into the mid 70s Wednesday through Friday.
Lows will follow a similar trend, upper 40s Tuesday night into the
low to mid 50s by Friday night).

There are still significant model differences for Friday onward with
respect to the timing of the frontal system and associated weather.
Generally, expect increasing chances for rain, with the highest
chances Friday Night/Saturday ahead of the front. Temperatures,
particularly the overnight lows, will decrease behind the front.
However, temperatures still appear to remain slightly above normal.


As of 635 AM Sunday...

There is a high likelihood of VFR conditions across central NC
through 06Z Monday. An area of high pressure at the surface and
aloft will build into central NC from the west today. Subsidence
associated with this feature will maintain mostly clear skies.
Surface winds will generally be 10kts or less, with infrequent gusts
around 15kts.

VFR conditions are highly probable to persist through Monday and
Monday evening. Periods of sub VFR ceilings, especially late at
night and early in the morning, may become a common occurrence
Tuesday through Thursday. The low level air mass will become
increasingly moist due to an area of low pressure to our west-
southwest which will become the dominate weather maker for our





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