Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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000
FXUS62 KRAH 040309
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1109 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF MID LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL CROSS CENTRAL
NC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING ROUNDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CENTRAL NC. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL SETTLE OVER
THE REGION FOR THE LATER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1059 PM TUESDAY...

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS EXPIRED...

A STRONG MESO-LOW OR MCV WAS TRACKING ACROSS JOHNSTON COUNTY TOWARD
WILSON/WAYNE COUNTIES. THE MOVEMENT HAS BEEN ENE AT 55 TO 60 MPH AND
THE REFLECTIVITY DISPLAY IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THE MESO BECOMING
OCCLUDED. WE MAY HAVE TO CONTINUE TO WARN DOWNSTREAM INTO THE
WILSON AND GOLDBORO AREAS BUT THE SPIN AND SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT.

RAINFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES PER HOUR HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
WITH THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER... THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN LASTING
AROUND 30 MINUTES DUE TO THE QUICK MOVEMENT. THIS HAS ALLOWED A
BURST OF 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IN SOME AREAS IN 20 MINUTES AND MOSTLY
IN RURAL AREAS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME MINOR STREET FLOODING AROUND
CLAYTON. THE QUICK MOVEMENT SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY WARNINGS FOR
FLOODING.

HI-RES MODELS STILL DEVELOP SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WITH SOME WEAK
CONVECTION STILL NOTED FROM ASHEBORO TO HENDERSON... WE WILL
CONTINUE TO CARRY 40-50 POP FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. THE GOOD NEWS
IS THAT STORMS OTHER THAN THE ONE TRACKING EAST OUT OF CLAYTON
TOWARD WILSON/GOLDSBORO BY 1200 AM SHOULD BE MUCH MUCH WEAKER AND
SUB-SEVERE.

THERE MAY BE SOME GROUND FOG LATER IF WE CAN PARTIALLY CLEAR AND
DECOUPLE. LOWS GENERALLY 55-62.

&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 335 PM TUESDAY...

L/W TROUGH BEGINS ITS AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. WITH A
PAIR OF DECENT S/WS DIVING SEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE SE
U.S. THE LEAD S/W WILL CROSS OUR REGION LATE WED AM-WED
AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY THE OTHER WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE COOL POOL
OF AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES WILL INCREASE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 6.5 DEG C/KM.  IN CONJUNCTION
WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND AVAILABLE MOISTURE...THIS SHOULD LEAD TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION. PLAN TO KEEP COVERAGE NO
MORE THAN 40-50 PERCENT AND MAINLY LIMITED TO THE NE HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WITH FREEZING LEVEL BETWEEN 8500-9500 FT...CELLS THAT
GROW UP TO 18K-20K FT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY UNDERNEATH THE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. HIGH TEMPS LOW-MID 70S.

THREAT FOR SHOWERS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH COVERAGE BEST
IN THE NW THIRD OF THE CWA. MIN TEMPS LOW-MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 220 PM TUESDAY...

A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED BUT RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED OMEGA BLOCK WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO BOTTOM
OUT OVER ATLANTIC COAST ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. INITIAL SURGE OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE EARLY THURSDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE STATE... THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS
THE NORTH TO AROUND 70 SOUTHEAST. LOWS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S THURSDAY NIGHT. THE CUTOFF LOW ROTATES AROUND AND BEGINS TO
LIFT OUT OF THE UPPER TROF THURSDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL BE FEWER
IN NUMBER AND FOCUSED ON THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY...AND ENDING IN THE
FAR NORTHEAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL REMAIN WELL
BELOW NORMAL...FROM MID 60S ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER TO VERY LOW
70S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

A SECOND SHORTWAVE DIVING SOUTH IN THE AMPLIFIED NORTHWEST FLOW
PUSHES A DRY AND WEAK FRONT BRIEFLY SOUTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY.
THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...HOWEVER...WILL BE TO SHIFT THE
OMEGA BLOCK EASTWARD...ALLOWING THE WEST RIDGE LOBE OF THE BLOCK TO
EDGE EAST OVER THE AREA...WITH AN ACCOMPANYING WARMING TREND...
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL TOLD...DRY WEATHER SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS WARMING FROM THE MID 70S SATURDAY TO LOWER 80S SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...TO MOSTLY MID 80S TUESDAY. MORNING LOWS WILL FOLLOW THE
TREND...FROM LOW 50S SATURDAY MORNING TO THE LOWER 60S BY TUESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 847 PM TUESDAY...

ONGOING SCATTERED STRONG STORMS WILL DIMINISH IN INTENSITY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE 24 HOUR
PERIOD...OUTSIDE OF ANY HEAVY SHOWERS OR STORMS.

AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN HIGHLY VARIABLE AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CAUSE PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER AND ATTENDANT
SUB VFR CEILINGS THROUGH FRIDAY. VFR PARAMETERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO CENTRAL NC FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...WSS
LONG TERM...MLM
AVIATION...30/WSS



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