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000
FXUS62 KRAH 252354
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
654 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY TO A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE THAT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA
MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY COLD HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 315 PM SUNDAY...

ESSENTIALLY NO CHANCE OF ANY WINTERY PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION WITH
THE CLIPPER SYSTEM MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT.

SUNNY MILD WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE
50S WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUDINESS THIS EVENING.

FORECAST ASSESSMENT TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

MODELS ARE IN EXCELLENT GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM APPROACHING NC FROM THE NW. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY
THE SAME AS THE ONE ADVERTISED IN THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES...
FROM THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE TONIGHT... THEN EASTWARD NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER
MONDAY. THIS TRACK NORTH OF OUR REGION OFFERS NO CHANCE OF ANY
ACCUMULATING WINTERY PRECIPIATION ANYWHERE IN CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. THIS TRACK ESSENTIALLY KEEPS OUR REGION IN THE MILD/WARM
SIDE OF THE STORM... WITH THE COLD AIR FINALLY EXPECTED TO DIVE IN
AS THE STORM DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT... A CLASSIC CASE OF COLD AIR
CHASING THE MOISTURE FOR US.

INCREASING CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED MID TO LATE EVENING. THEN
CLOUDY TO VARIABLY CLOUDY OVERNIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH FLOW AND
INCREASING CLOUDS SHOULD LEAD TO WARMER THAN GUIDANCE LOWS IN THE 35-
40 RANGE. HOWEVER... LOWS SHOULD BE MET THIS EVENING BEFORE THE
CLOUDS THICKEN UP. COOLEST NE AND WARMEST FAR WEST. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN LATE IN THE NW.

THERE MAY BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AS
THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 310 PM SUNDAY...

AS THE VORTICITY ALOFT TRACKS NEAR THE NC/VA BORDER MONDAY... ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OFFSHORE AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
TAKE SHAPE OFF CAPE HATTERAS... THEN PULL NORTHWARD UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MOST IF NOT ALL THE SIGNIFICANT
RAIN WILL FALL OFFSHORE WITH THE STORM ITSELF AT OUR LATITUDE.
HOWEVER... SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STORM WILL AFFECT THE
NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY SHIFTS OVER NE OVER THE WASHINGTON-
PHILADELPHIA REGIONS. WE WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
(RAIN) MONDAY AS TEMPERATURE PROFILES INDICATE THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM TO SUPPORT ANY SNOW. HOWEVER... THERE MAY BE A
BRIEF WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR A CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW MIXED
WITH RAIN SHOWERS IN THE NE ZONES AS THE COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM MONDAY NIGHT. AGAIN... COLD AND
DRY AIR CHASING THE MOISTURE IS NOT A CONCERN FOR ANY SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN IF THERE ARE A FEW SNOW FLAKES OR FLURRIES AT
THE END OF THE EVENT (MAINLY RDU NORTH AND EAST) - IT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO STICK.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT... CLOUDY BECOMING
PARTLY CLOUDY IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PIEDMONT IN THE AFTERNOON. A
CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. QPF WILL BE ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS UP
TO A TENTH NORTHEAST. HIGHS GENERALLY 40S NORTH TO 50S SOUTH. A
CHANCE OF A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTH AND
EAST... MAY BECOME A FEW LIGHT FLURRIES BEFORE THE DRY AIR WINS OUT.
BECOMING CLEAR SOUTH AND WEST. BREEZY. LOWS 25-30 WEST AND 33-35 NE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM SUNDAY...

TUE AND TUE NIGHT: EXPECT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY
TUE IN ASSOC/W LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION ON THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A POTENT NOR`EASTER TRACKING NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW/MID-LEVEL CEILINGS...ESP IN N/NE
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NC...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY /DPVA/ PROGRESSES
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MATURING UPPER LEVEL
WAVE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS ASIDE FROM
A SMALL CHANCE FOR SPRINKLES IN THE NE COASTAL PLAIN DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. SKIES WILL CLEAR TUE NIGHT IN ASSOC/W SYNOPTIC
SUBSIDENCE AS THE MATURE /VERTICALLY STACKED/ UPPER LOW PROGRESSES
FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. A RELATIVELY TIGHT
MSLP GRADIENT AND PERSISTENT NW BREEZE WILL PREVENT FULL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...WITH LOWS WED MORNING IN THE MID 20S...COLDEST ALONG THE
YADKIN RIVER WHERE WINDS WILL WEAKEN THE MOST PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

WED/WED NIGHT: CLEAR SKIES...VERY DRY CONDITIONS (SFC DEWPOINTS
FALLING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOW TEENS)...AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPS WILL PERSIST DURING THE DAY WED IN THE WAKE OF THE NOR`EASTER
AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE /HIGH PRESSURE/ BUILDS OVER THE CAROLINAS...
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S (COOLEST NE). ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY VIA NW FLOW ALOFT WED
NIGHT...RESULTING IN INCREASING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LOWS WILL
HIGHLY DEPEND ON THE AMOUNT OF CIRRUS PROGRESSING INTO THE REGION.
AT THIS TIME WILL INDICATE LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

THU/THU NIGHT: THE LATEST 12Z ECMWF/GFS GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE AND ATTENDANT SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH
THE OH VALLEY AND NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC THU/THU NIGHT...THOUGH
DIFFERENCES PERSIST WITH REGARD TO WHETHER OR NOT SUFFICIENT
FORCING/ MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR PRECIPITATION ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS THU NIGHT WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AND
LOWS IN THE MID 30S.

FRI-SUN: BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THIS
PERIOD AS NW FLOW ALOFT GIVES WAY TO TROUGHING ALOFT ALONG THE
EASTERN SEABOARD. AT THIS TIME PRECIPITATION CHANCES APPEAR NONE TO
LOW...WITH CENTRAL NC ON THE DRIER/SUBSIDENT WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH. -VINCENT

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 650 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT WHEN OUR NEXT
SYSTEM WILL THEN APPROACH. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN AND LOWER FROM WEST TO
EAST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. IN ADDITION LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST...MAINLY IMPACTING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING MOSTLY MVFR CIGS...BUT CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT SOME BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS. CURRENT SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SHOULD
REMAIN UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN PERSIST
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM WILL NOT IMPACT THE AREA
UNTIL THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BADGETT
NEAR TERM...BADGETT
SHORT TERM...BADGETT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...KRD