Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Raleigh/Durham, NC

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FXUS62 KRAH 291750
AFDRAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
150 PM EDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT. THIS COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AS OF 1020 AM SUNDAY...

AFTER A RATHER CHILLY START (OVERNIGHT LOWS FELL INTO THE TEENS AND
20S)...TEMPERATURES HAVE QUICKLY WARMED ABOVE FREEZING AND THEREFORE
THE FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. WITH AMPLE
SUNSHINE...HIGHS TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE SOME TODAY OVER
YESTERDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. HOWEVER...THIS WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL
LATER IN THE DAY...SO HIGHS TEMPS WILL STILL BE QUITE A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...GENERALLY LOW TO MID 50S (WARMEST IN THE SOUTHWEST...
COOLEST IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

THE NAM AND GFS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES REGARDING THE
TIMING OF MOISTURE AND LIFT LATE TONIGHT AND MAINLY MONDAY MORNING.
THE GFS IS THE FASTER OF THE TWO...BUT A REVIEW OF THE BUFR
SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW OF ANY PRECIPITATION LIES
FROM ABOUT 10Z TO 16Z OR SO. SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INCREASE AS THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 110KT 300MB JET AND A 70KT 500MB JET
MOVES IN LATE TONIGHT. 850MB THETA-E RIDGING IS PRESENT AS WELL BY
ABOUT 12Z MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY QUICK TROUGHING MONDAY AFTERNOON. GFS
AND NAM QPF ALONG WITH OUTPUT FROM THE NCEP ARW SUGGESTS A BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA VERY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. GUIDANCE POPS ARE NEAR OR AT
CATEGORICAL...AND FOR THIS FORECAST WILL RAISE POPS TO LIKELY WITH
THOSE CHANCES FALLING QUICKLY AGAIN BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. NAM AND GFS
SOUNDINGS APPEAR TOO STABLE FOR THUNDER AND MLCAPE IN THE LOWEST 2KM
DOES NOT REGISTER WITH LIFTED INDICES ABOVE 0C. ALSO...PARTIAL
THICKNESSES AND WET BULB TEMPERATURES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF LIQUID...IN
ADDITION TO THE ABOVE FREEZING DEPTH ON THE BUFR SOUNDINGS.
ANTICIPATE ABOUT A TENTH-INCH OF QPF IN GENERAL.

OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 30S BEFORE STABILIZING
AND POSSIBLY RISING A TOUCH LATE AS THE SURFACE GRADIENT INCREASES
AND SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASE ALOFT. THERE COULD BE AN HOUR OR SO OF
TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 35 PARTICULARLY IN THE COASTAL PLAIN BUT
WITH SOME INCREASING WIND AND DRY AIR NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH IN
TEMPERATURES COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY DURATION FOR ANY FROST...ESPECIALLY
WITH LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WHERE THE WIND WILL BE LIGHTER A
LITTLE LONGER. THE COLD FRONT LIKELY DOES NOT MOVE THROUGH UNTIL
LATE MONDAY...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THEN PROVIDED
DIMINISHING CLOUDS TAKE PLACE AS ANTICIPATED. 1000-850MB THICKNESSES
WOULD SUGGEST HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AND THAT WILL BE THE
FORECAST FOR HIGHS MONDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT 37 TO 41.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 305 AM SUNDAY...

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY: HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY...THEN A DRY BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY POST-FROPA HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. THE RESULT
WILL BE LOW IMPACT SEASONABLE WEATHER BOTH DAYS...WITH HIGHS 65-70
AND LOWS 40-45.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: A SOUTHERN STREAM S/W TROUGH OVER THE LOWER
MISS VALLEY WILL LIFT NE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS ON THURSDAY. IN RESPONSE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS
EARLY THURSDAY WILL SHIFT EAST AND AS THE FLOW TURNS TO THE
SW...LOOK FOR CLOUDS TO INCREASE AS WAA ENSUES. THE ECMWF IS WETTER
AND PRODUCES SOME LIGHT RAIN ASSOC WITH THE WAA...WHILE THE GFS
WEAKENS THE WAVE AND IS DRIER. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO
FRIDAY...REGARDING THE NEXT COLD FRONT. GFS IS FASTER AND BRINGS THE
FRONT INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE FOR RAIN
INCREASING...BY LATE DAY FRIDAY. THERES STILL PLENTY OF TIME FOR
TIMING DIFFERENCES TO BE WORKED OUT...BUT FOR NOW THE TAKE-AWAY
SHOULD BE THAT RAIN CHANCES WILL BE INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK.
LOOK FOR A WARMING TREND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS TIME - HIGHS IN 70S BOTH DAYS AND
LOWS IN THE MID 50S BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 145 PM SUNDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE
CURRENT TAF PERIOD. CURRENT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE UNIFORMLY SOUTHWESTERLY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. LATE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...A BAND OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST...
LIKELY BETWEEN 09-16Z. WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE BAND OF SHOWERS...THE PREDOMINANT
CEILING TYPE SHOULD BE IN THE LOW MVFR RANGE. ANY SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR A COUPLE OF HOURS BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS.
WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD PICK UP BEHIND THE LINE OF SHOWERS...WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINATE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
WEEK...WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
ADVERSE AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KRD/DJF
NEAR TERM...KRD
SHORT TERM...DJF
LONG TERM...RAH
AVIATION...KRD


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