Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 231911
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
311 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK DRY FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE REGION THIS WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION SUNDAY...KEEPING THE AREA DRY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME WITH
A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 305 PM EDT THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...ALLOWING THE WINDS TO SUBSIDE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP QUICKLY BY MIDNIGHT. DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...TEMPERATURES MAY LEVEL OFF OR EVEN RISE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERS THE OHIO VALLEY...PUSHING CIRRUS
CLOUDS OVER THE AREA. THIS CIRRUS SHIELD WILL LIKELY DETER
WIDESPREAD FROST FROM FORMING OVERNIGHT. THIS TROUGH WILL PASS
OVER THE REGION DURING THE DAY FRIDAY...KEEPING THICK CIRRUS OVER
THE AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS PER BUFKIT. LOW LEVELS
REMAIN DRY...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE STREAMING INTO THE AREA AND
DYNAMICS FROM THE TROUGH COULD POSSIBLE PRODUCE LIGHT
RAIN/SPRINKLES ALONG WESTERN SLOPES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE VERY DRY IN THE LOW LEVELS...THEREFORE MEASURABLE
RAIN WILL BE VERY SPOTTY AT BEST AND MOST LIKELY WE WILL ONLY SEE
VIRGA RETURNS ON RADAR.

NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

WEEKEND LOOKS NICE. ASIDE FROM A DRY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT...ANTICIPATING RELATIVELY BENIGN CONDITIONS.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. FLY
IN THE OINTMENT IS THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT....WHICH IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT
WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SPIKE INTO THE 10-20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS 20-30 MPH SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MODELS
DO INDICATE SOME SHALLOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPTH LESS THAN 150
MB. THIS MAY RESULT IN A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLOUDINESS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...BUT CLOSE TO NILL POTENTIAL FOR QPF. MAINTAINED SLIGHT
CHC -SHRA FOR THE WV HIGHLANDS...BUT GUT FEELING BASED ON THE
SHALLOWNESS OF THE MOISTURE IS THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH MORE THAN A
SPRINKLE. AFTER A BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...WINDS DIMINISH. TEMPERATURES
BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE SEASONAL
NORM.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...500 MB HEIGHTS
INCREASING EACH DAY UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A TROUGH MID WEEK. THIS
WILL TRANSLATE INTO WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN
THE 60S MOUNTAINS...AND WELL INTO THE 70S PIEDMONT. NEXT CHC OF
SHOWERS WILL ACCOMPANY A FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY
TIME FRAME. WITH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES...NO THREAT OF
FROST NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 105 PM EDT THURSDAY...

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OUT IN THE MID ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA. THE SHORT WAVE AXIS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING. WE ARE ALREADY SEEING CLOUDS ERODE AS THIS AXIS CROSSES
OVER THE FORECAST AREA. OVERCAST MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG ON TO
WESTERN SLOPES (BLF/LWB) INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BECOMING CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY BRING HIGH VFR CLOUDS TO THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...SPREADING EAST FRIDAY MORNING.
CEILINGS MAY LOWER THROUGH THE DAY BUT WILL REMAIN VFR.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE MID ATLANTIC LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS IN
THE REGION INTO THIS EVENING. SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10-20 KTS MPH
WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS WILL BE MORE COMMON ALONG THE BLUE
RIDGE...LESSER SPEEDS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
RELAXES BY MIDNIGHT AND WITH CIRRUS CLOUDS OVERSPREADING THE
AREA...WINDS WILL REMAIN UNDER 10KTS THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY.

MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN TIMING CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR ALONG WESTERN
SLOPES. HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH VISIBILITIES AND WINDS DURING THE TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FRIDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY
BRING MVFR CLOUDS TO WESTERN SLOPES EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING...POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER
THE REGION.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION FRIDAY...WITH DRY VFR
CONDITIONS REMAINING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RCS
NEAR TERM...RCS
SHORT TERM...PH
LONG TERM...PH
AVIATION...RCS



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