Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 280641
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
241 AM EDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build off the Atlantic coast and begin a
trend for warmer and more humid conditions, with a slight chance
for a shower or thunderstorm, through the weekend. Another cold
front will move through on Monday and bring a good chance for
thunderstorms, followed by some cooler temperatures through the
first part of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Friday...

Aside for some lingering showers across the piedmont, the
overall precipitation threat has come to an end. Surface front
has pretty much washed out and will no longer provide any sort
of lifting focus, so the only weather concern (at least through
daybreak) will be fog. Clearing skies in the wake of yesterdays
showers/storms is resulting in radiation fog. Satellite imagery
indicates the fog is mainly confined to the valleys, and is most
prominent within the mountain valleys where surface
visibilities were as low as 1/4 mile. This fog will persist
through daybreak then dissipate with the mixing of the morning
sun.

High pressure is forecast to build over the southeast CONUS
today...rising heights and thicknesses resulting in warming
temperatures with afternoon highs 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Region remains under large upper southeast ridge. Broad subsidence
and 850MB temperatures peaking around +20 will result in maximum
temperatures as much as 10 degrees above normal. However, on Sunday
high clouds blowing off from showers and thunderstorms well upstream
may limit full potential of heating. Will be cutting back of
probability of precipitation for Sunday. Bufkit soundings on Sunday
showed a cap just above 5000 feet and not much of any lift.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 PM EDT Thursday...

Progressive pattern as closed upper low continues northeast into the
Great Lakes on Monday and Tuesday. Models keep the long wave trof
over the east with another low closing off somewhere around the
Tennessee Valley on Thursday. WPC was leaning more towards the ECMWF
with split flow and a southern stream not as deep as the GFS by
Thursday.

The system on Monday and Tuesday brings a surface cold front through
the Mid Atlantic states on Monday and Monday night. Once a short
wave goes by on Tuesday night, the front sinks south and high
pressure builds in keeping deeper moisture south of Virginia and
Kentucky.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...

Moist ground and clearing skies overnight is yeilding good
radiational fog set-up this morning with LIFR conditions in the
Mountain valleys and IFR-MVFR conditions across the foothills
and piedmont. This fog will likely linger through the morning
push, but should rapidly clear mid-morning 13-14Z once the
daytime mixing gets underway. After 14Z/10am expect return of
widespread VFR underneath a building area of High Pressure.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure should build off the Southeast coast during this
weekend. Other than the potential for MVFR/IFR morning fog at
the usual river valley locations, VFR conditions should prevail
Saturday and Sunday. As a low pressure system approaches from
the west late Sunday and Sunday night, the potential for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms will increase. The cold
front associated with this system should reach the Appalachian
Mountains by Monday and depart offshore by Tuesday morning. As
such, expect the best chance of MVFR conditions during the
frontal passage.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Potential for high temperature records to be broken Saturday,
April 29.

 Current record/yearForecast
Roanoke            89/1915             89
Lynchburg          88/1974             89
Danville           91/1981             88
Bluefield          83/1996             85
Blacksburg         83/1974             84

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...PM
CLIMATE...JR


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