Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRNK 280005
AFDRNK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
705 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION AND BRING COLDER
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION...ALONG WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
FAR WESTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. AS
THE HIGH SLIPS OFF TO OUR SOUTHEAST...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
AND WE WILL HAVE FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ON MONDAY...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER BACK TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 700 PM EST THURSDAY...

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN EASTERN U.S. TROUGH COMBINING WITH NEXT
SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR AND ASSOCIATED CAA/UPSLOPE FLOW TO TRIGGER
-SHSN THROUGH THE ALLEGHANYS. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
WITH YET ANOTHER WEAK UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TO APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRI. SINCE -SHSN HAVE BEEN REPORTED FOR SEVERAL
HOURS AS FAR EAST AS BCB AND OTHER NEARBY SITES...HAVE INCREASED
POPS WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO ACCOUNT FOR GREATER COVERAGE OF
-SHSN. MOST WILL BE FLURRIES...BUT AT TIMES...NOTING BANDING OF
PCPN ON RADAR...THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVIER -SHSN...ESPECIALLY
UPSLOPE AREAS OF EASTERN WV/ALLEGHANYS. POPS VARY FROM LIKELY NW
GREENBRIER WHERE AN 1 OR SO OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
OVERNIGHT...TO 0 EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. T/TD APPEAR TO BE ON
TRACK...SO NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SLIDES EAST OF THE CWA OVERNIGHT BUT NOT BEFORE A
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO THE FAVORED
UPSLOPE AREAS OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE 1 OR 2 INCHES IN WESTERN
GREENBRIER ALTHOUGH LIKELY NOT ENOUGH FOR ADVISORY CRITERIA. MAY
NEED TO ISSUE AN SPS OR TWO FOR MORE INTENSE SNOW BANDS. COLD AIR
ADVECTION WILL BE IN FULL FORCE OVERNIGHT AS H85 TEMPS DROP FROM
-2C TO -5C RANGE THIS AFTERNOON TO -8C TO -13C BY FRIDAY MORNING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN UP MOST OF THE NIGHT PREVENTING IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS BUT STILL EXPECTING A COLD NIGHT FROM UPPER
TEENS IN THE NW TO MID-20S SE. SINGLE-DIGIT WIND CHILLS LIKELY IN
THE NW. FRIDAY WILL SEE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TO START AS HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY SHIFTS EAST DURING THE DAY AND TEMPS
STRUGGLE TO REBOUND. A SHORT-WAVE SCOOTING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
DURING THE DAY MAY THROW ENOUGH AFTERNOON HIGH CLOUDINESS
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES TO IMPEDE WARMUP MUCH BEYOND
LOW 30S NW AND LOW 40S EAST WHICH IS EASILY 15F BELOW CLIMATOLOGY
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD SHAPING UP FOR THE WEEKEND. UPPER TROF WILL
BE PUSHING OFF TO OUR EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS WE ENTER MORE OF A
ZONAL PATTERN. THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SET UP
SHOP TO OUR EAST AND KEEP AN APPROACHING FRONT AT BAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH WILL REALLY GET
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION CRANKING AND EXPECT MAX TEMPS WELL INTO THE
50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE BRISK LOW LEVEL JET WILL ALSO MAKE
FOR SOME WINDY CONDITIONS SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AT THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 256 PM EST THURSDAY...

APPROACHING COLD FRONT FINALLY PUSHES THROUGH ON MONDAY. BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIP WILL BE WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN DOWNSLOPE EAST OF THE RIDGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN AGGRESSIVELY WEDGE DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD
ON TUESDAY...BRINGING A NOTICEABLE COOLDOWN TO OUR TEMPS. CHANCE
POPS STILL WARRANTED THROUGH MIDWEEK DUE TO POSSIBLE UPSLOPE IN
E/SELY FLOW. NEXT APPROACHING LOW IS A FAIRLY SHALLOW AMPLITUDE
WAVE AND THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE HIGH TO DRIFT TO OUR EAST AND
LINGER A BIT...WITH RETURN FLOW WARMING US BACK TO NORMAL LEVELS
FOR MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 645 PM EST THURSDAY...

UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST OF THE REGION. WEAK EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVE HELPING TO ALLOW NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR TO SPREAD INTO THE
REGION. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPSLOPE...CAA...AND THE SHORT WAVE
TRIGGERING SCT -SHSN MAINLY WEST OF THE ALLEGHANY FRONT WITH A FEW
-SHSN SPILLING OVER TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WITH CAA
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND YET ANOTHER WEAK EMBEDDED UPSTREAM SHORT
WAVE...WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. JUST SCT-BKN
CLOUDS AT TIMES FOR AREAS EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE. CIGS SHOULD
REMAIN MOSTLY MVFR WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE THROUGH MID-MORNING
FRI...AND AT WORST LOW END VFR CIGS EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE...INCLUDING ROA/LYH/DAN. -SHSN WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WILL
BRIEFLY REDUCE VISIBILITY AT TIMES TO IFR CATEGORY...MAINLY LWB
AND BLF. THE THREAT FOR THIS WILL DECREASE AFT 06Z AND THE MAIN
SHORT WAVE PASSES EAST OF THE REGION. ELSEWHERE...VSBYS MOSTLY VFR
OVERNIGHT AND FRI. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW TO CLEAR WEST OF THE
BLUE RIDGE...POTENTIALLY HANGING IN TOUGH WITH MVFR CIGS AT
BLF/LWB THROUGH 18/19Z...BUT BECOMING SCT TO SKC EAST OF THE BLUE
RIDGE BY 18Z FRI. WINDS NW-W THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD AT
SPEEDS OF 6-10KTS...WITH LOW END GUSTS REMAINING POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT ROA/BCB/BLF.

MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CIGS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VSBYS THROUGH THE TAF VALID PERIOD.
MEDIUM TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND SPD/DIR THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION FRI...RETURNING
ALL SITES TO VFR CONDITIONS BY AFTERNOON. SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS
WILL PASS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AN UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING BY
TO THE NORTH FRI EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SAT-SUN WITH
A WARMING TREND. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE REGION MON-TUE
WITH A CHANCE OF -SHRA AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ALONG THE FRONT
FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL EASTERLY FLOW...THUS
ASSOCIATED MVFR CIGS.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
AS OF 1030 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

VISIBILITY SENSOR AT KLYH...LYNCHBURG AIRPORT...WAS MALFUNCTIONING
AGAIN. PARTS HAVE BEEN ORDER BUT THE REPAIR MAY NOT BE UNTIL
MONDAY. THE VISIBILITY AT KLYH WILL BE AUGMENTED BY STAFF WHEN THE
CONTROL TOWER IS OPEN...OTHERWISE THE VISIBILITY WILL BE MISSING.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...PC/RAB
SHORT TERM...MBS
LONG TERM...MBS
AVIATION...PC/RAB
EQUIPMENT...AMS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.