Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 261929
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
329 PM EDT Fri Aug 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will be the dominant weather feature through the upcoming
weekend, with just a chance for an afternoon shower or thunderstorm
mainly along the Blue Ridge. A weak cold front may slowly slide
southward into the area by the middle of next week and continue the
chance for a shower or storm from the Blue Ridge westward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

Expect any isolated showers or storms to dissipate this evening
followed by quiet weather for the overnight period. Another round of
valley fog looks like a good bet from the Blue Ridge westward toward
daybreak. Lows tonight look to be just a bit warmer than last night
with low/mid 70s in the east to low/mid 60s west.

Warm upper ridge will remain in place over the region through Saturday.
This will allow a large area of high pressure moving through eastern
Canada to wedge down the eastern seaboard tomorrow. This will push a
bit of a backdoor front into the area from the northeast and guidance
suggest this will provide enough lift in the warm and humid airmass for
a low chance for showers/thunder mainly for the southern Blue Ridge
heading into the northwest mountains of North Carolina. Highs tomorrow
will remain several degrees above normal with generally lower 90s east
and mid/upper 80s to the west.&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

An upper level ridge will remain over the region through early next
week. Expect strong subsidence under this ridge, which will push
afternoon highs 5F-8F above normal with mid to upper 80s west and
lower to mid 90s east. At this time, heat indices values do not
approach triple digits, however with dew points in the upper 60s to
lower 70s, very uncomfortable conditions are expected the next
couple of days. Air quailty may be more of a danger, especially
those with respiratory problems as winds will remain light and
variable. Despite a strong ridge, diurnal heating and increasing
PWATS may allow for a few storms to develop over the mountains each
afternoon, but with almost no support aloft, any convection will be
short-lived.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 PM EDT Friday...

The upper level ridge over the region this weekend will retrograde
to the west and be replaced by an upper level trough. Embedded short
waves in this trough and a surface lee trough over the piedmont will
increase the chances for afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms. Areal showers may be moreso on Friday with a possible
front passage.

Models also continue to hint at a possible tropical disturbance in
the vicinity of Florida next weekend. However, with an upper level
trough along the east coast, the forecast track of this system
should stay south of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Fairly typical late summer TAFs for a relatively uneventful
weather regime through the period.

The upper ridge residing over the region will greatly limit our
chances for any showers or storms. A shallow boundary/backdoor
front will make a surge into the region from the northeast
tomorrow but and do not believe coverage will warrant any mention
in the TAFs as isolated/scattered activity will be centered on the
southern Blue Ridge and likely very late in this valid period.
Thus, the biggest concern through early Saturday afternoon will be
the potential for fog/stratus tonight. Expect similar conditions
tonight with the greatest likelihood for MVFR/IFR conditions at
KBCB with LIFR at KLWB. Guidance suggestion of additional cloud
cover to the east may be a bit overdone so will still include a
mention of MVFR at KDAN and KLYH toward daybreak. Lingering
fog/stratus will burn off Saturday morning with VFR conditions
into early Saturday afternoon. Winds will be light through the
period.

Extended aviation discussion...

A weak front will drift into the area Sunday. Isolated to
scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms still possible into
Sunday evening. Coverage will be limited in area and duration.

Monday high pressure bubbles in but still a very humid airmass to
keep isolated mountain storms around in the afternoon, but mainly
VFR. Another front situated north of us Tuesday could enhance
convective threat, mainly over the mountains and north of ROA/LYH.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MBS
NEAR TERM...MBS
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...MBS/RAB


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