Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

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FXUS61 KRNK 191825

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
225 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

A large area of high pressure will remain over the eastern part
of the country this week before slowly sliding off the coast on
Saturday. This will keep skies mostly sunny and allow
temperatures to warm to above normal levels. Early next week, a
strong cold front and deep upper trough will approach from the
Midwest bringing widespread rain showers followed by much cooler


As of 220 PM EDT Thursday...

Our string of pleasant fall weather will continue through the
end of the workweek as a large area of high pressure remains in
place across the eastern US. Temperatures tonight will be a bit
warmer than last night and with dew points creeping up coverage
of valley fog may be greater. Look for lows generally in the
mid 30s to around 40 degrees with some cooler readings in the
valleys and some spotty frost. Friday will be sunny and pleasantly
warm with above normal temperatures as highs reach the middle
and upper 70s east of the Ridge, low/mid 70s to the west.


As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

An awesome weekend is shaping up weatherwise as a strong ridge of
high pressure is forecast to linger through Sunday. This feature
will maintain the fair dry weather, with temperatures 5 to 10
degrees above normal.

Enjoy the weekend because next week will be unsettled. Clouds will
begin to increase late Sunday, an indication of changes on the


As of 300 AM EDT Thursday...

An active upper air pattern is forecast for next week as full
latitude long wave trough gets carved out over the east central
Continental U.S. (CONUS).  Models indicate an abundance of short
wave energy flowing into the western CONUS this weekend with some of
the energy becoming isolated on the west side of subtropical ridge
of high pressure over the Southeast U.S., and developing into a
cutoff low in the vicinity of the Lower MS valley. This cutoff low
is forecast to eject northeast across the Mid-Atlantic Monday into
Tuesday in an almost winterlike fashion as this energy phases with
an ever increasing energetic northern stream trough along the U.S.
Canadian border. The net result will be a highly amplified full
latitude long wave trough by mid-week which will feature a
significant change in temperature for much of the eastern U.S.

Model consensus is for rain to develop from southwest to northeast
across the region Sunday night into Monday, with the highest
probability for measurable rainfall occurring Monday night into
Tuesday as the southern stream Low ejects northeast across the
region. Stability indices suggest slight potential for thunder Tue.

With the upper trough becoming established over the eastern CONUS
for mid week, temperatures will take a tumble. Arrival of cooler air
Tuesday night into Wednesday may result in some p-type transition
(wet snowflakes?) for the highest elevations of WV/NC and far
western VA, followed by brisk/breezy conditions.


As of 205 PM EDT Thursday...

High pressure will remain in control of our weather this TAF
period with VFR flight conditions and light winds expected,
with the exception of IFR conditions in nocturnal fog/stratus
developing in the valleys. Expect KBCB and KLWB are most likely
sites for IFR conditions in fog/stratus, and with increasing
dew points coverage/duration look to be a bit greater than last
night. Will forego tempo groups and go with prevailing IFR/LIFR
these sites for a couple of hours around daybreak.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

High pressure will remain over the region through Sunday with
generally VFR conditions expected, outside the usual late
night/early morning patchy river and mountain valley fog.
A deep upper trough and associated strong cold front will move
into the region from the west by Monday promising a period of
sub-VFR conditions in rain/showers along with increasing wind.
Colder, blustery, unsettled weather with perhaps largely MVFR
conditions across the mountains will linger through the later
half of next week as an upper trough cuts off across the central




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