Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 250952
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
552 AM AST MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...WITH ASSOCIATED CUT OFF LOW
MEANDERING NORTH OF LOCAL ISLANDS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DEEP
TROPICAL MOISTURE ADVECTION EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS CUT OFF LOW WEAKENS EARLY NEXT WEEK...RIDGE PATTERN WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WERE OBSERVED ACROSS LOCAL
ISLANDS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. BRIEF SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
TO NO ACCUMULATIONS WERE OBSERVED OVER WINDWARD AREAS. THE
OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S ACROSS
COASTAL AREAS. THE WIND BECAME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

ALTHOUGH TROFINNES WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA MUCH OF THIS
WEEK...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN UNDER 850MB THRU THURSDAY. THEREFORE
LOCAL WEATHER REGIME WILL BE MAINLY DICTATED BY DIURNAL HEATING
AND SEA BREEZES. AS A RESULT...EXPECT SOME TRADE WIND SHOWERS
ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS IN THE MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND WEST OF THE CORDILLERA
IN THE AFTERNOON MONDAY THRU THURSDAY.

FRIDAY AND INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND..A SHARP INCREASE IN TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED AT ALL LEVELS. THIS WILL BRING A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWER AND THUNDER ACTIVITY ACROSS LOCAL ISLANDS WITH
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE DURING THE WEEKEND.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGH AT LEAST 25/16Z. BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE AT JMZ WITH MTN TOP
OBSCD FROM 25/17Z THROUGH 25/22Z DUE TO POSSIBLE SHRA/TSRA OVER
THE INTERIOR AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF PR. SFC WINDS FROM THE E-NE
AT 10 TO 15 KT...GUSTING UP TO THE LOW 20S AFTER 25/14Z...SEA
BREEZE VARIATIONS DEVELOPING AROUND 25/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS LOCAL WATERS WITH SEAS
BELOW 5 FEET AND WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE DE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  88  78  87  78 /  20  30  30  20
STT  88  77  88  77 /  20  30  30  20

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

25/23


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