Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 261826
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
226 PM AST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...RETROGRESSING TUTT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC INTO THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR SO...WHILE
MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN
FLATTENS. LOCAL PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ONCE AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOSTLY SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH FEW PASSING SHOWERS
OBSERVED ACROSS THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AS WELL AS EASTERN PUERTO
RICO. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
AND NEAR 80 DEGREES AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WINDS WERE GENERALLY
FROM THE EAST AT 15 TO 20 MPH WITH SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS AND
HIGHER GUSTS.

A GENERALLY FAIR AND MAINLY STABLE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY...AS THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF RETROGRESSING TUTT MAINTAINS A SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ALTHOUGH...MOISTURE TRANSPORT
WILL DECREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS THROUGH FRIDAY/EARLY SATURDAY
UNDER WEAKENING TRADES...AN INDUCED/INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH...
ASSOCIATED WITH TUTT ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE BRIEF PASSING
SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS FROM TIME TO TIME FOLLOWED BY SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL AND W
PUERTO RICO BOTH DAYS.

MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTHEAST IS EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY/
SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO SUNDAY AS A SHEARLINE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS EVOLVING PATTERN COMBINED WITH WEAKENING
RIDGE ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUED TREND OF PASSING SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EAST COASTAL SECTIONS WITH SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER
PUERTO RICO...MAINLY OVER AND SOUTH OF THE CORDILLERA CENTRAL.

EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...
TRADES WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. THIS FEATURE WILL
ENHANCE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT...RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS ACROSS WINDWARD AREAS EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDS EXPECTED DURG THE FCST PRD. HOWEVER...PASSING
-SHRA CANT BE RULED OUT OVER EASTERN PR...USVI AND LEEWARD ISLANDS
TAF SITES. NO SIG CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG EASTERLY TRADES WILL CONTINUE AT 10-25 KTS
WITH HIGHER GUSTS CONDS...AFT 26/23Z WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT EAST TONIGHT WITH WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING RAPIDLY LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. TRADE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN AGAIN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  74  85  74  84 /  30  10  10  30
STT  76  86  76  86 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM AST THURSDAY FOR ANEGADA PASSAGE
     SOUTHWARD TO 17N-CARIBBEAN WATERS OF PUERTO RICO FROM 10 NM
     TO 17N-MONA PASSAGE SOUTHWARD TO 17N.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST TONIGHT FOR ATLC WATERS
     OF PUERTO RICO AND USVI FROM 10NM TO 19.5N-COASTAL WATERS
     OF NORTHERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     NORTHERN USVI AND CULEBRA OUT 10 NM-COASTAL WATERS OF
     SOUTHERN USVI VIEQUES AND EASTERN PUERTO RICO OUT 10 NM.

&&

$$

27/23





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