Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Juan, PR

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FXCA62 TJSJ 300948
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
548 AM AST TUE SEP 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL
HOLD THROUGH MIDWEEK. THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A FAIR WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE
IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE LOCAL AREA BETWEEN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY MORNING...INCREASING THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. THEN...STABLE AND DRIER AIR
MASS IS ANTICIPATED DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...TRANQUIL WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED ACROSS THE
ISLANDS IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE PREVAILED
DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS AND NO RAINFALL HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE
PR/USVI REGION SO FAR THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY ONLY SHOWS
CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST OVER THE REGIONAL WATERS.
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLANDS TODAY AND
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE TEMPERATURE ABOVE NORMAL. AN OVERALL FAIR
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY WITH LIMITED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY ON WEDNESDAY...ALLOWING
PASSING SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS REGIONAL WATERS AND EAST COASTAL
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL BE
ALSO POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN PR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN...A TROPICAL
WAVE IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE PR/USVI REGION LATE THURSDAY. THE WAVE
WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. STABLE AND MUCH DRIER AIR MASS IS THEN EXPECTED
ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER CONVERGENT
PATTERN ESTABLISHES ACROSS THE REGION. IN ADDITION...A PULSE OF SAHARAN
DUST IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND ACROSS THE
LOCAL FLYING AREA DURING THE PERIOD. VCSH ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER TJMZ AND TJBQ. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY SOUTHEAST
AT 10 TO 15 KTS EXCEPT FOR SEA BREEZE VARIATIONS IN COASTAL AREAS.


&&

.MARINE...SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT AND WINDS 10-15 KT. TROPICAL WAVE
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY INCREASING
THE RISK OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU  93  78  92  78 /  20  20  20  30
STT  88  80  89  80 /  40  40  40  50

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...NONE.
VI...NONE.
COASTAL WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

71/11





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