Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 251640
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1040 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION THROUGH MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE CWA THIS
MORNING WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED
CONVECTION. WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING IS UPSTREAM ACROSS CENTRAL NV
AND A CLOSED LOW IS DROPPING S INTO THE PACNW WITH A WEAK SHORT
WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THIS LOW AND MOVING INTO NRN CA.

THE CONVECTION THAT CROSSED THE NORTH EARLIER THIS MORNING IS
SHIFTING INTO CENTRAL UT AT THIS TIME AND NEW DEVELOPMENT IS
OCCURRING OVER THE TERRAIN NORTH AND EAST OF OGDEN.

SATELLITE SHOWS CUMULUS RAPIDLY FORMING OVER ALL MTNS ACROSS THE
REST OF THE CWA AND EXPECT SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE TERRAIN BY EARLY AFTN AND DRIFT OFF DOWNWIND INTO
THE ERN VALLEYS. THE NV SHORT WAVE RIDGE COULD SUPPRESS ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE NWRN VALLEYS THIS AFTN ASSISTED BY THE NORMAL DIURNALLULL
IN ACTIVITY OVER THE NW DESERTS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR A WEAK CELL OR TWO TO DRIFT OFF THE TERRAIN.

THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST TONIGHT AND MODELS HINT THAT THE NRN CA
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A THREAT OF
MORNING CONVECTION TO THE NRN CWA TUE.

THE WEAK PACNW LOW CONTINUES TO BRING A THREAT OF CONVECTION TO
MUCH OF THE CWA THRU THE REST OF THE WEEK AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SEWD
TO S CENTRAL ID BY 12Z THU AND NERN UT BY 12Z FRI.

UPDATED EARLIER TO REDUCE POPS AND SKY6 COVER OVER SWRN UT REST
OF THE MORNING AND MADE A FEW OTHER SKY AND POP CHANGES FOR TODAY.
NO ADDITIONAL UPDATES PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
FORM OVER THE TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE SALT LAKE VALLEY TODAY BUT
LITTLE CHANCE THAT A CELL WILL DIRECTLY IMPACT THE TERMINAL. THERE
IS HOWEVER A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT OUTFLOW WINDS FROM THESE
STORMS COULD BRING GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS TO THE AIRFIELD BETWEEN
ABOUT 19-00Z. OTHERWISE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHWEST
AFTER 18Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

WILENSKY/SCHOENING


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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