Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 020529
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
929 PM PST TUE DEC 1 2015
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY OVER SHASTA COUNTY.
THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH WET AND
WINDY WEATHER. SNOW WILL BE LIKELY OVER THE MOUNTAINS THURSDAY
WITH POSSIBLE TRAVEL DELAYS.
A weak shortwave will bring a chance of some light precipitation
from the Central Sacramento valley northward overnight and into
Wednesday evening. Snow levels over the north may be on the low
side initially around 4500 feet but should rise overnight and
Wednesday eventually up to near 7000 feet.
The next decent system will arrive on Thursday and should bring
some decent amount of snow to the higher elevations and windy
conditions. Generally 5 to 10 inches above 6000 feet with the
lower totals south of US-50 near the crest. Local 12 inch amounts
across some of the higher peaks will be possible around I-80
northward. In the valley .25 to .50 of an inch of rain continues
to looks like a fairly good estimate. Winds will increase on
Thursday as the system moves through with sustained winds 20 to 30
mph possible and gusts up to 45 mph. The strongest winds will
occur from mid to late morning through most of the afternoon hours
Timing of the rain looks like it will be mid to late morning for
the coastal range then late morning to afternoon for the rest of
the interior as the system moves in quickly. The heaviest snowfall
will occur in from the late afternoon hours through most of
Thursday night. Some lingering showers will continue on Friday
with mainly zonal flow across the area but gradually dissipate
throughout the day.
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Saturday THROUGH Tuesday)
Upper ridge axis progged to move through Interior NorCal Saturday
then models bring additional short wave systems through Sunday and
Monday. 12z EC has trended more towards the GFS, showing a lower
amplitude wave Sunday, but generates more QPF. Differences with
mainly timing exist with Monday`s system, but solutions suggest
main energy with this wave will be north of the forecast area.
Upper ridging redevelops over the area Tuesday as max temperatures
NWly flow alf with upr rdg ovhd movg E. Flow alf bcks to SWly tngt
as upr trof in EPAC apchs. Genly VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal nxt 24
hrs exc lcl MVFR poss ovr Cstl and Shasta Mtns in lgt shwrs aft
06z Wed. Sfc wnds mnly lgt exc lcl gsts to 25 kts ovr hyr mtn trrn
aft 06z Wed.