Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA
FXUS66 KSTO 120423
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SACRAMENTO CA
923 PM PDT Tue Mar 11 2014
Building high pressure will result in dry weather and milder
temperatures for the rest of the week. easterly winds
overnight are causing breezy winds into the Sierra Foothills and
breezy to windy conditions across Lake County.
High pressure building over the Great Basin this evening and the
winds at the 850 MB level have shifted to a more easterly
direction. This has allowed the winds within the valley to
decrease. However local gusty winds for the far western side of
the valley and delta are expected overnight but below advisory
Local gusty easterly winds are also occurring in the mountains as
well and will last into Wednesday morning before tapering. Max
gusts should be around 60 mph for some of the favored ridges that
typically get windy. Local gusty winds may work its way into the
foothills but overall not expecting the stronger winds to be
forced down to that level.
Temperatures will be warming into the 70s for the valley for the
remainder of the workweek and the winds will be lighter. High
pressure will take hold of the region the next couple of days and
we can expect warm dry conditions. There is a weak shortwave that
moves through to the north on Friday that may be able to bring
some showers to the far northern part of the state.
.Extended Discussion (Saturday through Tuesday)
Extended forecast continues to show upper level ridging spreading eastward
into the region late this week, with temperatures peaking over the
weekend. Well above normal temperatures are expected, with low 80s
across much of the Valley. Monday is trending dry and just a
little cooler than Sunday. The 12Z ECMWF is showing a closed low
off the coast opening into a wave and moving inland on Tuesday.
This is quite different from the 00z run, which had dry ridging.
The 18z GFS has a similar low off the coast, which weakens and
fills as it tries to move inland Tuesday/Tuesday night. With this
and the big change in the ECMWF, will keep forecast dry for
now. Looking beyond, models are rather chaotic, with an unsettled
EPAC High pres blds into PacNW nxt 24 hrs with VFR conds ovr Intr NorCal.
In Cntrl Vly dcrsg Nly wnd ovngt. Omtns, lcl N to E sfc wnd gsts up
to 45 kts poss ovngt into Wed, dcrsg Wed aftn.
wind advisory until 5 am pdt wednesday above 1000 feet in the
clear lake/southern lake county.