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639
FXUS62 KTAE 120525
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1225 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.Aviation...

[Through 06Z Saturday] Low clouds (600-1500 ft AGL) have been
rapidly developing late this evening across south GA & AL and
portions of the FL Panhandle, just south of a quasi- stationary
front. The greatest probability of IFR cigs and/or Vis is at
KDHN, KABY, and KVLD. Cigs/Vis will improve there by late
morning. W-SW winds of 10 to 15 KT with gusts to 25 KT will
develop by late morning or early afternoon, then gradually subside
during the evening.

&&

.Prev Discussion [919 PM EST]...

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

No significant changes were made to the previous forecast.

South to southwest winds have brought a return of much warmer
temperatures to the region along with increasing low level
moisture. As a result, our overnight temperatures will be much
milder than the past several nights along with chances for fog
development. Clouds will be increasing mainly across our northern
zones as a cold front pushes into central Georgia. Lows will be in
the mid to upper 40s except near 50 along the coast.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

A quasi-stationary front across the interior Southeast will begin
to push south on Friday as a shortwave digs from the northern
Plains and amplifies the broader trough across the eastern US.
Ahead of the front, though, it should be quite warm with highs
generally between 70 and 75 degrees. The cold front passage is
expected to be a dry one, although a brief increase in cloud cover
is possible.

Cold air advection will then continue through Friday Night and
into Saturday, with highs on Saturday likely to be restricted to
the 50s other than near the Suwannee River. Clearing skies and dry
weather are expected otherwise.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

The main story in the extended part of the forecast will be a
potent shortwave trough that will quickly dig from the Front Range
of Colorado on Sunday Night to the Southeast by Monday Night.
Surface cyclogenesis is expected to the north of our forecast
area, with a cold front arriving either Monday Night or early
Tuesday. Along and ahead of the front, rain is expected and PoPs
have been raised into the "likely" category around 60%. Very
little instability is indicated by the models; while this could
change, we did not mention thunderstorms in the forecast yet.


.Marine...

Westerly winds, occasionally reaching 15-20 knots should continue
overnight and into tomorrow before veering to the north behind a
cold front Friday Night. The breezy winds, above 15 knots at
times, should continue through Sunday morning.


.Fire Weather...

An increase in minimum RH values is expected for Friday before
another round of dry air arrives on Saturday. At this time, red
flag conditions are not expected.


.Hydrology...

Outside of the Suwannee River basin, area rivers are in recession.
The lower portion of the Choctawhatchee remains in flood stage
and Bruce will be dropping below moderate flood stage later today.

Releases from Lake Seminole continue to decrease as the
Chattahoochee returns to normal levels and the contribution from
the Flint River drops below 22kcfs. Releases down the Apalachicola
River this morning are around 47kcfs and expected to drop toward
35kcfs late Friday night. As a result, the river at Blountstown
will continue to steadily drop and potentially fall below flood
stage by Saturday morning. Downstream flooding near Wewahitchka and
Howard Creek has peaked for this event and will continue to
decrease through the weekend.

The flood wave down the Withlacoochee River is approaching Pinetta
where a crest about 4 feet below flood stage is expected late
Friday night. Further down into the Suwannee, as increased flows
from the Withlacoochee and Alapaha Rivers discharge into the
Suwannee, expect steady downstream rises through the weekend. With
expected flows at Ellaville only to peak around 18kcfs, all
downstream points in the Suwannee should stay below action levels
with this event - aside from the possible exception of the US-19
crossing at Fanning Springs by the middle of next week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   74  45  58  31  58 /   0   0   0   0   0
Panama City   66  48  56  35  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        70  40  52  29  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        70  40  53  28  53 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      74  44  56  31  56 /   0   0   0   0   0
Cross City    74  48  62  34  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  68  49  59  37  56 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DVD/BARRY
SHORT TERM...LAMERS
LONG TERM...LAMERS
AVIATION...FOURNIER
MARINE...LAMERS
FIRE WEATHER...DVD
HYDROLOGY...GODSEY



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