Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 020724
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
324 AM EDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.NEAR TERM [THROUGH TODAY]...

THE 1000-700 MB FLOW TODAY WILL BE  FROM THE WEST AROUND 10 KTS OR
LESS, WHICH WOULD TYPICALLY KEEP OUR AFTERNOON SEA-BREEZE
THUNDERSTORMS PINNED TO THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A +PV ANOMALY
ALOFT CENTERED ALONG THE TENNESSEE-KENTUCKY BORDER THAT WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD TODAY. THE INTERACTION OF THIS +PV ANOMALY WITH OUR
LOWER LEVEL FLOW AND PLENTY OF WARM, GULF MOISTURE WILL MEAN
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR OUR AREA TODAY. THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE WILL BE IN NORTH FLORIDA AND IN SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA.
HEAVY CLOUD COVER TODAY AND HIGH STORM COVERAGE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S.

.SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY]...

AS THE MID-UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TRANSLATES
EVER SO SLOWLY INTO THE CAROLINA`S, THE AXIS OF THE ASSOCIATED
TROUGH WILL MOVE TO OUR EAST. MEANWHILE, A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
ENTER OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY AND STALL OVER NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY
THURSDAY. AS A RESULT, A DRIER AIRMASS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO OUR
REGION, ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN ZONES. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR DIURNAL CONVECTION BUT
COVERAGE SHOULD BE LESS THAN WHAT WE HAVE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS.
POPS WILL BE TAPERED FROM SLIGHT (20%) WEST TO MID RANGE CHANCE
(40%) EASTERNMOST ZONES BOTH DAYS. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY]...

THE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE CENTERED JUST EAST OF OUR
FORECAST AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THIS FORECAST CYCLE. WHILE OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE TROUGH, THERE WILL STILL BE ENOUGH
LOW-LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING CONVECTION. THE POPS WILL MOSTLY BE IN
THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL
LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...

[THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY] THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE NEAR ECP MAY MOVE
INLAND DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND BRIEF MVFR VISIBILITIES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT DHN, TLH, AND VLD, BUT SHOULD CLEAR OUT A LITTLE
AFTER SUNRISE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD FROM THE COAST
THROUGH THE DAY AND WILL LIKELY AFFECT ALL TERMINALS WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WHEN STORMS ARE ON TOP OF THE
AIRPORT.

&&

.MARINE...

GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS AND LOW SEAS ARE LIKELY
THROUGH THURSDAY WILL WINDS SWINGING AROUND TO BECOME OFFSHORE
AND REMAINING BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WETTING RAINS THIS WEEK WILL PREVENT US FROM REACHING HAZARDOUS FIRE
CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS UNLIKELY AS THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WILL NOT BE CONCENTRATED OR
SUSTAINED ENOUGH FOR LONG PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN.
HOWEVER, ISOLATED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TALLAHASSEE   85  68  90  68  90 /  50  40  40  20  30
PANAMA CITY   83  70  86  71  85 /  50  30  20  20  20
DOTHAN        85  67  92  69  89 /  50  30  20  20  20
ALBANY        86  66  90  68  89 /  40  40  30  20  40
VALDOSTA      86  67  91  69  90 /  60  40  40  20  40
CROSS CITY    85  68  89  67  90 /  60  50  40  20  30
APALACHICOLA  83  71  87  70  86 /  50  40  30  20  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MOORE
SHORT TERM...BARRY
LONG TERM...BARRY
AVIATION...MOORE
MARINE...BARRY
FIRE WEATHER...MOORE
HYDROLOGY...FOURNIER


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