Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 301322

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
922 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

The 7 am EDT regional surface analysis showed a weak, quasi-
stationary front near and along the FL-GA border. Earlier this
morning there had been some showers associated with this feature,
but these have dissipated. Vapor imagery and upper air data showed
that our forecast area remained under deep layer NW-N winds
aloft, and it remained quite warm and dry above 600 mb. This
environment would typically argue for low PoPs, with deep moist
convection primarily limited to I-10 southward as the orthogonal
flow to the FL Panhandle/Big Bend sea breeze greatly delays its
inland propagation, as well as its associated convection. The MOS
consensus is indeed low with PoPs 20% or less. The CAMs, on the
other hand, are much more bullish on the prospects for rain. If
it were only a few CAMs they could be dismissed, but the vast majority
of them, including members from completely different ensemble
programs, forecast numerous convective cells across our FL zones
this afternoon.

Based on the latest data and model trends, we think there will be
ample convection south of I-10, but that many of the cells will
dissipate quickly as they entrain substantially dry air aloft.
Still, we think that about half the area between I-10 and the
beaches will get measurable rain. The storms will have a
progressively more difficult time getting north of I-10 as the
sea breeze front fights against the opposing winds and the
boundary layer becomes progressively drier. Thus our PoPs in GA
and AL are generally 30% or less. It will continue to be hot with
highs in the mid 90s away from the beaches, though relatively low
humidity (for the summer) will prevent the apparent temperature
from rising above the actual air temperature.



.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Wednesday]...

With the lack of large scale synoptic features impacting the area
in the short term, the main story will be the seabreeze each
afternoon. Given this have shown highest shower and thunderstorm
activity during the afternoon time period. Highs will mainly be
in the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid
70s. This will result in temperatures above normal.

.LONG TERM [Wednesday Night Through Monday]...

Initially the seabreeze is the weather influence in the long
term. A frontal boundary associated with a shortwave sliding north
of the Great Lakes on Thursday will slowly be pushing southward.
This boundary eventually pushes into the southeast on Sunday and
helps to enhance the shower and thunderstorm activity both Sunday
and Monday. Highs initially in the 90s will cool to the mid 80s to
lower 90s by Sunday as clouds and precipitation increase.

.AVIATION [Through 12Z Tuesday]...

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Scattered
thunderstorms are possible after 18Z.


Winds and seas will remain light this week. Some stronger winds
are possible with the seabreeze activity.


High dispersions are possible this afternoon in southwest Georgia,
otherwise there are no fire weather concerns.


Significant rainfall amounts are not expected this week and thus
there are no flooding concerns at this time.



Tallahassee   94  70  94  71  93 /  40  20  30  10  30
Panama City   85  74  86  74  86 /  40  10  20  10  20
Dothan        92  70  94  70  93 /  30  10  20  10  30
Albany        92  69  94  71  93 /  10  10  20  10  30
Valdosta      92  68  93  70  93 /  10  20  40  20  40
Cross City    90  69  92  70  92 /  50  20  30  20  20
Apalachicola  87  72  88  73  87 /  40  10  20  10  20






NEAR TERM...Fournier
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