Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 200046
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
846 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

The few isolated storms that managed to develop earlier this
afternoon across the area have dissipated. Our 00Z TAE sounding
showed a PW of only 1.5", which is 81% of our normal value. No
storms in our local area are expected for the next few hours,
though by the early morning hours, offshore storms may give a
distant lightning show. Morning lows will be in the low to mid
70s, upper 70s along the immediate coastline.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [733 PM EDT]...

.SHORT TERM [Sunday Through Monday Night]...
The upper low in the Gulf of Mexico will continue tracking slowly
westward through the short term period, while at the same time mid
level ridging will build across the Southeast, generally along a
line from Charleston SC westward to near Memphis TN. With SE flow
behind the upper low, it`s expected a corridor of increasing low-
mid level moisture will spread across the Florida Peninsula
south of the mid level ridge on Sunday, and that this moisture
will then move westward across the Gulf Coast through the end of
the short term period. As a result, expect a gradual increase in
rain chances at the beginning of the week, with ultimately rain
chances in the 40-50 percent range by Monday across the region.
High temperatures, while quite warm on Sunday in the mid 90s will
be a little cooler on Monday due to more cloud cover and
anticipated storms.


.LONG TERM [Tuesday Through Saturday]...
As the upper low moves into Texas on Tuesday, the region will
still benefit from a nearby mid level ridge to the NE of the
forecast area, keeping rain chances near normal for late August.
However, an approaching tropical wave from the Atlantic and a
deepening Eastern CONUS trough will begin to focus increasing
moisture across the forecast area by Thursday and into the
weekend. So after a couple of days of near normal rain chances,
PoPs will increase late in the period. High temperatures in the
low to mid 90s will be common at the start of the period, then
trending back to near 90 degrees late in the period.


.AVIATION...

[Through 00z Monday] VFR conditions are expected through the period
with the possible exception of a brief period of restrictions
around KVLD in the 10z-12z period.


.MARINE...
Light and variable winds around 10 knots or less will prevail
through the next several days, resulting in generally low seas
through next week.


.FIRE WEATHER...
No red flag conditions are anticipated for at least the next week.


.HYDROLOGY...
Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected through
Sunday. Rain chances will increase to near normal levels on Monday
through Wednesday, when some localized flooding in urban areas
would be possible with the strongest storms. However, coverage
will not be sufficient to result in any river flooding.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   74  96  76  91  75 /   0  30  10  40  20
Panama City   78  92  78  89  77 /   0  20  20  40  20
Dothan        74  96  75  91  74 /   0  20  10  40  20
Albany        73  97  75  91  75 /   0  10  10  40  20
Valdosta      72  95  74  90  73 /   0  30  20  40  20
Cross City    74  94  74  91  74 /  10  30  20  40  10
Apalachicola  77  92  78  89  77 /  10  20  20  30  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FL...High Rip Current Risk until midnight EDT /11 PM CDT/ tonight for
     Coastal Gulf.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Moore
SHORT TERM...Godsey
LONG TERM...Godsey
AVIATION...DVD
MARINE...Godsey
FIRE WEATHER...Moore
HYDROLOGY...Godsey


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