Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 052139
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
439 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

The line of showers (which is occasionally producing an isolated
cloud to ground lightning strike along its path) continues to march
steadily eastward this afternoon out ahead of a fairly strong cold
front. While this line of showers is relatively thin, the decision
to raise PoPs earlier in the day appears to be well justified, and in
fact, when all is said and done both final PoPs and QPF may end up
being slightly on the low side. Many areas are expected to receive
between 0.20" and 0.40" of rainfall, along with a very dramatic wind
shift from the SW to the NW, with the NW winds gusting up to 30 to
40 mph. Finally, the unseasonably warm and humid upper 70s to lower
80s out ahead of this front are expected to drop between 20 and 25
degrees behind it with the wind shift.


.Short Term [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure will be in place this forecast period. Northerly flow
means cool, dry air will be invading the region. Skies will clear
out on Friday from west to east and will remain mostly clear for the
remainder of the forecast period. Highs on Friday will be well below
average in the lower 50s for northern portions and mid to upper 50s
elsewhere. Highs on Saturday will be in the 60s. Lows Friday night
will be in the 30s. Lows Saturday night will be in the upper 30s and
lower 40s.


.Long Term [Sunday Through Thursday]...

Gulf moisture will move into the region on Sunday as a developing
Gulf Low moves closer. Clouds will move in Sunday afternoon/evening
and will remain in place for the rest of the forecast period. The
best chance for rain will be from Sunday night through Tuesday
particularly in the northwest portion of the CWA as a Gulf Low
lingers in the western Gulf and a warm or stationary boundary will
likely be near the Florida Gulf Coast. Beyond Tuesday this boundary
will weaken and rain chances will decrease. Highs will be in the 60s
and 70s. Lows will generally be in the 50s.

&&

.Aviation...
[Through 18Z Friday]

A cold front will continue to move through the area resulting in
MVFR cigs and brief IFR cigs with a brief period of +RA limiting
vsbys to 1-3mi. Winds will shift at the terminal sites at cold
front passage as follows... 20Z at KABY and KECP...23Z at
KTLH...03Z at KVLD. MVFR cigs will linger at all terminals behind
the cold front through 06Z with cigs 3K-4K 06Z-18Z.

&&

.Marine...

A cold front is moving across the area. As a result winds are
increasing and becoming northerly from the west to the east.
Advisory conditions are expected until mid morning tomorrow with
cautionary conditions lasting through Saturday morning. Light to
moderate winds are expected for the rest of the forecast.

&&

.Fire Weather...

A cold front will move through the region this evening bringing
cooler conditions back to the area. After light rain this evening
and cloudy conditions on Friday, drier weather will return by the
weekend. Relative humidity values may approach critical levels on
Saturday, but other necessary red flag criteria are not expected
to be met.

&&

.Hydrology...

All area rivers are now below flood stage, although several are
still in action or bank full stage. Rainfall totals with the cold
front are less than .5 inches so we will not see rises on area
rivers.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   46  57  38  68  41 /  30  10   0   0   0
Panama City   42  54  40  63  47 /  30  10   0   0   0
Dothan        36  53  34  65  38 /  20   0   0   0   0
Albany        39  53  32  65  38 /  20  10   0   0   0
Valdosta      45  54  36  65  40 /  40  20   0   0   0
Cross City    53  60  41  69  45 /  50  20  10   0   0
Apalachicola  46  57  43  65  48 /  40  10   0   0   0

&&

.TAE Watches/Warnings/Advisories...

FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST Friday for Apalachee Bay-
     Coastal waters From Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola FL
     out to 20 NM-Coastal waters from Suwannee River to Keaton
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Apalachicola to
     Destin FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Destin FL from 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

NEAR TERM...GOULD
SHORT TERM...GOULD/MCDERMOTT
LONG TERM...MCDERMOTT
AVIATION...GOULD
MARINE...MCDERMOTT
FIRE WEATHER...GOULD
HYDROLOGY...HOLLINGSWORTH





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