Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 230810

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
310 AM EST Tue Jan 23 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the Southeast today. At
the surface the cold front is currently (1 AM EST) near Montgomery,
Alabama. This cold front will move through most of the region by mid
morning. Rain chances are confined to the Eastern Big Bend Florida
and South Central Georgia. Rain chances will decrease around sunrise
as the cold front moves through the region. With cool dry air moving
in behind the front skies will be sunny with highs in the 60s.

.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Thursday]...

While there won`t be any rain through the short term, the upper
levels will remain quite active. The large occluded low over the
Midwest today will be moving through the Northeast overnight, and
on it`s heels, another northern stream wave will drop through the
Plains into the Mississippi Valley. With the southern stream
positioned over the Southeast, expect this second shortwave to
advect quickly eastward in the established WSWrly flow before
reaching the local area. It will however have the effect of
nudging the southern stream a bit further south. At the same time,
there`ll be a weak southern stream impulse moving through the
northern Gulf but that will do little besides thicken up the
cirrus across the region on Wednesday. By Thursday, these features
will have removed the favorable upper-level jet dynamics from the
region, resulting in dissipating cloud cover aloft.

A seasonable cold pool aloft combined with filtered sunshine on
Wednesday will result in high temperatures in the middle to upper
50s (a few degrees below normal). By Thursday, increasing heights
and clearing skies will yield highs back into the lower to middle
60s. Lows will be near normal tonight (upper 30s), but may fall to
a few degrees below normal Wednesday night depending on how
quickly the cirrus departs and more favorable radiational cooling
conditions take over.

.LONG TERM [Thursday Night Through Tuesday]...

A brief period of deep layer ridging is expected through Friday
night before another northern stream wave moves through the
Plains, amplifying the longwave northern stream trough and merging
it back in with the southern stream over the Southeast. As the
southern stream intensifies over the GOMEX, mid/upper isentropic
ascent will result in a large area of rain developing over the
western Gulf. Eventually, this rain shield may spawn surface
cyclogenesis late in the weekend. All of this is forecast to occur
prior to the northern stream frontal system clearing the Tri-
State region early next week. While this general pattern is well
agreed upon, exactly where the rain shield will end up going is
quite difficult to pin down this far out. The potential exists
though for heavy rain to impact the northeast Gulf coast Saturday
night through Sunday before drying out once again early next week.


.AVIATION [Through 06Z Wednesday]...

CIGs will be IFR and LIFR through the early morning hours. Patchy
fog will persist through early morning as well. The rain has moved
out but the cold front has not moved through yet. Low CIGs and fog
will dissipate as the front moves through in the morning hours.



On and off Cautionary conditions are expected through Wednesday,
becoming more steady and possibly increasing to Advisory levels
(on and off) Wednesday night through the weekend. A period of dry
conditions is expected through Friday night, with heavy rain
possible over the weekend.



A dry air mass is moving in today but red flag conditions are not
expected this week. Morning fog will dissipate by early to mid



Dry conditions are forecast through the end of the week. By the
weekend, the potential for heavy rain exists as an area of low
pressure develops in the Gulf. Just how far north the rain shield
will extend is uncertain, but the potential is there for average
rainfall amounts of 1-2" with isolated amounts even higher. The
details of this next system should become a bit more clear in the
next few days.



Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.



Tallahassee   68  39  58  34  64 /  10   0   0   0   0
Panama City   63  43  56  39  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dothan        64  36  55  32  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Albany        65  36  56  33  61 /   0   0   0   0   0
Valdosta      66  39  58  35  62 /  20   0   0   0   0
Cross City    70  40  60  34  64 /  30   0   0   0   0
Apalachicola  65  44  57  40  61 /   0   0   0   0   0




SHORT TERM...Harrigan
LONG TERM...Harrigan
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