Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 232134
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
234 PM MST Sun Jul 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue through Monday night. Conditions for thunderstorms will
become less favorable by mid week, before another upswing in
activity develops late in the week into next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Scattered showers and thunderstorms were occurring
across southeast Arizona this afternoon. Some of these storms have
been efficient rain producers as they move generally to the west.
Expect a continuation of storms into the late evening hours where
some will be capable of producing very heavy rain with a daily
record precipitable water value of 1.92" on the Tucson morning
sounding. After coordinating with the neighboring offices and WPC
this morning, a flash flood watch was posted across Arizona, which
includes the eastern two-thirds of the forecast area, or basically
east of a Casa Grande to Sasabe line through midnight tonight. Based
on latest high resolution model runs and 18z NAM, this watch may
need to be extended for portions the area into Monday, like from
Tucson northwest, as an inverted trof moves north out of Sonora MX
and produces localized heavy rainers. Not clear cut but something to
watch out for.

The monsoon train will continue through the upcoming week, although
it will slow down a bit on Tuesday thru Thursday before ramping back
up again next weekend. High temperatures will also warm to at or
slightly above normal values by mid-week with triple digits
returning to the lower deserts from Tucson west.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid thru 25/00Z.
Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA this afternoon/evening, then
isolated to scattered -TSRA/-SHRA late tonight into early Monday
morning. Scattered to numerous TSRA/SHRA developing again late
Monday morning and afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions with cloud
decks generally 5k-10k ft AGL. Surface wind variable in direction
mainly less than 12 kts, except in the vicinity of TSRA where gusts
may exceed 45 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening
thunderstorms will continue into Monday with locally heavy rain and
strong winds. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
then expected Tuesday into next weekend. Temperatures will remain
below normal through Tuesday, with near normal readings the rest of
the week. 20-foot winds will remain below 15 mph with the exception
of strong outflow winds in the vicinity of thunderstorms.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
 Flash Flood Watch until midnight MST tonight for AZZ502>515.

&&

$$

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