Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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000
FXUS65 KTWC 190421
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
920 PM MST THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...LINGERING MOISTURE WILL MAINTAIN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES NEXT WEEK. EXPECT GRADUALLY WARMER
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES INTO THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...KEMX WSR-88D DETECTED ISOLATED 30-50 DBZ ECHOES ACROSS
SWRN COCHISE COUNTY IN THE VICINITY OF SIERRA VISTA AT THIS TIME.
OTHER ISOLATED 30-45 DBZ ECHOES WERE NEAR KITT PEAK. THE REST OF SE
AZ WAS VOID OF PRECIP ECHOES VALID 0420Z. IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS DEPICTED MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS WRN PIMA
COUNTY...AND PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE. LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS PREVAILED ACROSS THE AREA.

HAVE NOTED THE LARGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERATED FOR SOME PORTIONS OF
SE AZ THE REST OF TONIGHT VIA THE 19/00Z NAM. BASED ON SATELLITE/
RADAR TRENDS...AM HIGHLY SUSPECT OF THE LARGE QPF/S AND POPS
GENERATED BY THE NAM. THUS...THIS SOLUTION HAS BEEN LARGELY
DISCOUNTED FOR THIS FORECAST UPDATE. HAVE OPTED FOR PRECIP FREE
CONDITIONS THE REST OF TONIGHT ACROSS WRN PIMA COUNTY...AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG THRU MID-
MORNING FRI FOR LOWER ELEVATIONS SOUTH-TO-SOUTHEAST OF TUCSON. THERE
IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE TO MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS FRI AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPS FRI WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOUT 2-5 DEGS F WARMER VERSUS TEMPS ACHIEVED THIS AFTERNOON.

PLEASE REFER TO THE ADDITIONAL SECTIONS FOR FURTHER DETAIL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 20/06Z.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA WILL OCCUR MOSTLY EAST-TO-SOUTH OF KTUS
THRU FRI MORNING. EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -SHRA/-TSRA ACROSS SE
AZ FRI AFTERNOON AND FRI EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A FEW HOURS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRI MORNING AT THE KOLS/KDUG
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS INTO FRI EVENING ESPECIALLY KTUS
VICINITY EWD WILL BE AT 5-10K FT AGL...AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN
PROVIDE DRIER CONDITIONS WITH LESSER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...WITH THE WEST COAST TROUGH MAKING ITS WAY DOWN
THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA INTO THE WEEKEND...WE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW
EVENTUALLY TRACKS TO OUR NORTH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY. AT THAT TIME RIDGING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD BEGIN TO BUILD
NORTHWARD WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...BUT
STILL SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

FRANCIS
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MOLLERE





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