Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 281626

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
925 AM MST Tue Mar 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system across east central Arizona
will bring a slight chance of showers mainly east of Safford to
Douglas line today into this evening. This system will still bring
strong gusty winds today along with cooler temperatures. Dry
conditions with a warming trend will occur Wednesday into Thursday.
The next system will bring another chance of showers mainly
northeast of Tucson Friday through Sunday.


.DISCUSSION...Radar showed the area of showers that moved across
SE AZ earlier this morning was now across SW NM/NRN Sonora MX.
Visible imagery showed partly cloudy conditions near the AZ/NM
border with mostly sunny elsewhere. Water vapor imagery showed upper
low over east-central which will continue to move east across NM
today. Wrap around moisture will keep slight chance of valley rain
and mountain snow showers across areas from Safford northeast.

With the rainfall this morning relative humidity values will remain
above 15% in the red flag warning area, thus it was cancelled. Still
looking a breezy to windy conditions on back side of system, with
strongest winds east of Tucson where a wind advisory is effect
between 11 am and 7 pm. Highs today will run 3-6 degrees below

Dry NWLY flow aloft on Wednesday becoming WLY on Thursday will bring
warmer high temperatures. Highs on Thursday will be the warmest in
the upcoming 7 day forecast period.

The next Pacific storm will impact the area Friday thru Sunday. More
on this in the afternoon package.


.AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z.
Isolated -SHRA will be relegated to areas east of a KSAD-KDUG line
thru 29/03z. Otherwise expect SKC to SCT clouds 6-10k ft AGL. Sfc
wind wly/nwly 12-25 kts with gusts to near 35 kts thru 29/03z. The
strongest speeds will be east of KTUS. Sfc wind then diminishing to
less than 10 kts aft 29/03z with direction terrain driven. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...The rainfall that moved through southeast Arizona
earlier this morning will keep daytime RH values above 15% across
southern areas of fire weather zones 151 and 152. Thus the Red Flag
warning that was issued for this afternoon for the above fire
weather zones has been cancelled. Still looking at breezy to windy
conditions today.

Afternoon breezes will continue Wednesday and Thursday along with
warmer temperatures. Another weather system will then move in late
Friday with gusty winds. This system will also bring a chance of
showers mainly northeast of Tucson Friday through Sunday.


  Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this evening
    for AZZ507>509-511>513.



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