Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS65 KTWC 222115
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...DRIER AIR WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH SATURDAY
RESULTING IN A DRY FIRST DAY OF THE WEEKEND.  MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY WORK BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH WITH SOME
CONVECTION OVER SOUTHEASTERN AREAS SUNDAY.  THE CONVECTION WILL
INCREASE AND SPREAD TO MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.  BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY
APPROACH NORMAL LEVELS BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHALLOW CONVECTION DEVELOPED NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.  AS THE TROUGH
MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND THE SUN SETS...THE CONVECTION WILL DIE
OFF LATER THIS EVENING WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BE A DOWN DAY CONVECTION WISE...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE
LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...THAT IS IF ANYTHING DEVELOPS AT
ALL.  WITH RELATIVELY DRY WESTERLY FLOW AND NO TRIGGER SHOULD HAVE
JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF THE STATE.  OTHER AREAS DRY WITH JUST A BIT OF CUMULUS
BUBBLING UP.  AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RISING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FOR THE FIRST TIME SINCE LAST SUNDAY.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT SUNDAY ON SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR MORE CONVECTION...SPREAD ACROSS A SOMEWHAT LARGER AREA.
NOTHING BIG...JUST A BIT OF AN INCREASE OVER SATURDAY.  AGAIN...WITH
SLOWLY RISING THICKNESS VALUES OVER THE REGION AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE ANOTHER COUPLE OF DEGREES.

FOR NEXT WEEK...THE TREND IS FOR A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER
THE AREA FOR AN UPTICK IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.  BASICALLY...TYPICAL MONSOON CONVECTION DAYS WITH
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.  HAVE ADJUSTED POPS UP A BIT THOSE TWO DAYS
WITH THAT THOUGHT IN MIND.  WITH THE FORECAST OF A STRONG TROPICAL
SYSTEM PASSING BY SOUTH OF THE TIP OF BAJA EARLY IN THE WEEK...WILL
NEED TO KEEP AN EYE OUT FOR ANY MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE SURGE
EARLY IN THE WEEK WHICH COULD REALLY KICK UP THE CONVECTION...AND
MORE THAN IN THE CURRENT FORECAST.  CERNIGLIA

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 24/00Z.
SCT TSRA WILL CONTINUE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM KOLS-KSAD INTO
EARLY EVENING. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS AND WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 40 KTS WITH THE STRONGER TSRA. MOST TSRA SHOULD DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET BUT A FEW -SHRA WITH BKN CLOUDS 5-7K FT COULD
LINGER TIL 23/06Z.  OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...SURFACE WIND
WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 10 KTS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE
MUCH LESS SATURDAY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST
INTO EARLY EVE MAINLY EAST OF A NOGALES TO SAFFORD LINE. WHILE
SATURDAY SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
PRODUCE STRONG...GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS. OUTSIDE OF THESE
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS...20-FOOT WINDS WILL BE DIURNALLY/TERRAIN
DRIVEN AND GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 MPH.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.