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000
FXUS65 KTWC 230332
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
830 PM MST WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DEEPEN
ALONG THE ENTIRE WEST COAST AND LINGER OVER THE REGION WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ACROSS SOUTHERN ARIZONA WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WELL...WE ALMOST MADE 100 BUT DIDN`T QUITE GET THERE
WE ONLY BRIEFLY TOUCHED 99 DEGREES.  ALL MODEL GUIDANCE POINTS TO A
COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLING THURSDAY THEN A GOOD BIT COOLER FRIDAY
WELL INTO NEXT WEEK.  WILL WE NEED TO WAIT UNTIL JUNE...

STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW AS THE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION
TIGHTENS UNDER THE DIGGING UPPER TROUGH.  BREEZY (15 TO 25 MPH)
LEVELS AND GUSTY...WITH LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS BUT SHOULD BE WELL BELOW WIND ADVISORY LEVELS.  SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS AS OUTLINED BELOW BUT WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA.

THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE WESTERN
REGION WITH A STUBBORN RIDGE DOWNSTREAM THROUGH THE PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.  THIS WILL KNOCK
SEVERAL DEGREES OFF OF DAYTIME HIGHS.  ECMWF ADVERTISES MODEST
REINFORCING ENERGY SHARPENING UP THE TROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.  ANY
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STILL WELL NORTH OF US BUT IT COULD PUSH
DAYTIME HIGHS DOWN TO NEAR CLIMO BY MONDAY.  CERNIGLIA/MEYER

&&

.AVIATION...SKC-SCT CLOUDS AOA 20K FT.  SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 KTS THROUGH 23/17Z THEN BECOMING SW-W 10-20 KT WITH GUSTS
20-30 KT THROUGH 24/03Z.  AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG INTO THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.  AS THIS HAPPENS...WE EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SEVERAL
DEGREES BUT REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE.  AFTERNOON MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WITH OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
RATHER POOR...PRIMARILY IN THE 20S.

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS MAY BE EXCEEDED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
IN THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY (THE ALPINE DISTRICT)
WHERE A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON UNTIL 8 PM
MST.  ELSEWHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO EXCEED CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS FOR A SIGNIFICANT PERIOD OF TIME...BUT A FEW
OF THE NORMALLY WINDIER LOCATIONS MAY BRIEFLY EXPERIENCE RED FLAG
CONDITIONS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.  CERNIGLIA/LADER

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
  RED FLAG WARNING THURSDAY FROM 12 NOON UNTIL 8 PM FOR NORTHERN
   FIRE WEATHER ZONE 146 INCLUDING THE ALPINE DISTRICT.

&&

$$

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