Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 202113 RRA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
213 PM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL RESULT IN SOME PASSING
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY EAST OF
TUCSON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL STAY MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION
FOR THE WHITE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...SOME BREEZES AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON AS SOME HIGH CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
UNDER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. AS A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SETS UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC...SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BE ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WITH CONTINUED NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
GRADUALLY RISING HEIGHTS INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT
UPTICK IN DAYTIME TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY AND ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME MAINLY THIN CIRROFORM CLOUDINESS MOVING THROUGH FROM
TIME TO TIME.

TROUGHINESS WILL DEEPEN MAINLY ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES...A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH WILL MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE CAN`T RULE
OUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO IN THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT BUT WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK A FEW DEGREES ESPECIALLY FOR THE
VALLEYS EAST OF TUCSON ON TUESDAY WITH A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE
MODERATION WEDNESDAY.

THE NEXT SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN US BY THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. THE 12Z GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES IS
CONTINUING TO TREND KEEPING THE BULK OF THE DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE TO
OUR NORTH. WITH THAT SAID...EXPECT THE MAIN IMPACTS FOR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA TO BE SOME INCREASED BREEZES AND COOLER TEMPERATURES MOVING
IN BY ABOUT FRIDAY. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE
MOUNTAINS FROM TUCSON NORTHEASTWARD AS IT WON`T TAKE MUCH TO SQUEEZE
OUT A LITTLE MOISTURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 22/00Z.
SCT TO LCLY BKN MOSTLY HIGH CLOUDS. SURFACE WIND LESS THAN 10 KTS
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 20-FT
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT AND TERRAIN DRIVEN THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...SOME NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL OCCUR MONDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SAFFORD...AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS LOW CONCERNING THE
TIMING AND IMPACTS OF THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER MAKER WHICH MAY
AFFECT THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR VALLEY RAIN
AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ARE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS ON
THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS SOUTH AND EAST OF TUCSON TOWARD THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS WELL AS THE BORDER WITH NEW MEXICO.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

GL






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