Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 020914
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
212 AM MST TUE JUN 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THE ABOVE
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK. DRY MOST OF THE
WEEK...THEN A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH MAY BRING A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BY WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD
THIS WEEK AS A TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE WEST COAST. MODELS SHOWED
THIS PATTERN CHANGE EVOLVING WITH A SYSTEM ENTERING SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA LATE IN THE WEEK. AS THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS...MODELS PULL
SOME MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS FRIDAY. SOUTH OF
THE REGION...A LOT WAS HAPPENING WITH THE FIRST 2 NAMED TROPICAL
SYSTEMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC...ANDRES WHICH WAS A HURRICANE EARLY
THIS MORNING AND TROPICAL STORM BLANCA. BOTH OF THESE SYSTEMS MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BLANCA MIGHT EVEN BE MORE OF A
CONCERN THIS WEEKEND AS MODELS TRACK REMNANTS OF IT NORTHWARD INTO
BAJA BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/12Z.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FEW-SCT CIRRUS CLOUDS ABOVE 20K FT AGL MAINLY THIS
MORNING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT THIS MORNING BECOMING
SWLY TO NWLY AT 10-20 KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS MAINLY FOR KDUG
AFTER 02/19Z. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF AND BECOME LESS THAN 10 KTS AFTER
03/03Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.
DAYTIME MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS TO MIDDLE TEENS. 20-FOOT WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST AT 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. EXPECT LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
AT OTHER TIMES.

THEREAFTER...INCREASED MOISTURE WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EXTENT OF THIS EXPECTED
INCREASE OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...THE FORECAST OF
RAINFALL PROBABILITY...COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS WILL BE SUBJECT TO
CHANGE.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

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