Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 092156 CCA
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
242 PM MST WED JUL 9 2014

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
INTO NEXT WEEK. MOST STORMS WILL OCCUR DURING AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS BUT SOME WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT AT TIMES. SOME STORMS WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST
OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH FLOW AROUND THIS HIGH BRINGING
SOUTHEASTERLY MID TO UPPER LEVEL WINDS ACROSS ARIZONA. IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW EXTENSIVE LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS COVERING
MUCH OF ARIZONA. COMPLEX OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF CALIFORNIA
IS LINGERING FROM OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHWEST
ARIZONA WITHIN A DEFORMATION ZONE.

WITH THE AIRMASS AT LEAST FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN ZONES SEEMINGLY
HAVING BEEN WORKED OVER FROM THE CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED YESTERDAY
AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...IT MAY STRUGGLE A BIT LONGER FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...AT LEAST FROM TUCSON WESTWARD. TO THE EAST OF
TUCSON WHERE SKIES THIS MORNING STARTED OUT MOSTLY CLEAR...THEY
SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE SEEING SOME DECENT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY ALONG WITH RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS STORMS DEVELOPING MOSTLY OVER
THE MOUNTAINS TO THE EAST OF TUCSON AND MOVING TO THE NORTH
NORTHWEST. BOTH THE U OF A WRF GFS/NAM MODELS DEPICT A SIMILAR
SCENARIO OF STORMS DEVELOPING GENERALLY EAST OF A LINE FROM WESTERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTY TO BENSON TO SAFFORD AND MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PIMA COUNTY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO PORTIONS OF PINAL COUNTY BY LATE THIS EVENING. THAT SAID...I
KEPT THE INHERITED POP FORECAST OF SCATTERED TYPE POPS FOR THIS
EVENING...WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE ACTIVITY BEING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM NEAR NOGALES TO SIERRA VISTA TO DOUGLAS
WITH SLIGHTLY LESSER CHANCES FOR THE TUCSON METRO AND INTO THE
TOHONO O`ODHAM NATION AND PINAL COUNTY.

AS THE HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY REMAINS TO THE EAST OF ARIZONA
THROUGH LATE WEEK. SOUTHEAST TO EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP AMPLE
MOISTURE IN PLACE TO JUSTIFY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY. BY THIS WEEKEND MODELS SHOW AN INVERTED
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST MEXICO INTO WEST TEXAS THAT IS
PROGGED TO BE GENERALLY OVER NORTHERN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA MEXICO AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BY EARLY SUNDAY. GIVEN THIS
SCENARIO THE MODELS DO SHOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR NOW I DO SHOW AN
INCREASE IN ACTIVITY FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT A DOWN SWING FOR MONDAY.
GIVEN RECENT MODEL DATA...IF YOU TAKE THE MODELS AT FACE VALUE THE
CURRENT POP FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
WOULD BE TOO LOW FOR SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN EARLY
MONDAY. HOWEVER...IT IS TOO EARLY TO GET FANCY WITH THE POP FORECAST
THIS TIME OF YEAR THAT FAR IN ADVANCE...SO KEPT THE FORECAST `AS IS`
FOR NOW BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 11/00Z.
SCATTERED TSRA/SHRA CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING
ESPECIALLY EAST OF KTUS WITH ISOLD TSRA/SHRA POSSIBLE WEST OF KTUS.
EXPECT MVFR VISIBILITIES WITH +TSRA...AS WELL AS POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS MOSTLY AROUND 45 KTS. OTHERWISE...CLOUD DECKS WILL BE AROUND
8-15K FT AGL WITH POSSIBLE REDEVELOPMENT OF TSRA/SHRA AFTER 10/18Z.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT TO PROVIDE SCATTERED
TO PERHAPS NUMEROUS MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...GL









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