Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 032124
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
223 PM MST TUE MAY 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG
WARMING TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN AMPLIFIED HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WITH THE TAIL END OF A SYSTEM CURRENTLY SKIRTING
ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND SLIDING SOUTH. MEANWHILE...A
PACIFIC SYSTEM IS OFF THE WEST COAST AND WILL BE THE SYSTEM THAT
EVENTUALLY GIVES US INCREASING WINDS THURSDAY AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. IR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS ARIZONA AT THIS TIME...WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
OF EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA AND EXTENDING INTO NEW MEXICO.

MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT
AND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVING INTO SOUTHERN PLAINS.
MEANWHILE...THE RIDGE TO OUR NORTH WILL STRENGTHEN AND CONSOLIDATE
IN A POSITION THAT WILL STRADDLE THE AZ/NM STATE LINE AND EXTEND
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. AS A
RESULT...WE WILL SEE OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK OCCUR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH READINGS FOR THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN DESERTS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. IN ADDITION...AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN OVER THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES WHICH WILL RESULT IN A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. MOS WIND GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING AN INCREASE IN EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TOWARD SUNRISE
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY BEFORE
SLACKENING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE GRADIENT BEGINS
TO RELAX.

THE RIDGE AXIS WILL MOVE EAST THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LOW
OFF THE WEST COAST MAKING ITS WAY TOWARD THE SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST BY LATE IN THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...
WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL INCREASE CONSIDERABLY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THIS HAS
PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR LATE THURSDAY
MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING (SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW FOR
FURTHER DETAILS). AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MARCH TO THE
EAST...WINDS WILL LINGER INTO FRIDAY...BUT WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND
AFFECT MOSTLY AREAS BETWEEN TUCSON AND THE NEW MEXICO BORDER. FOR
NOW WE HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY...BUT
SUBSEQUENT SHIFT WILL NEED TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT THE WINDS FOR
FRIDAY.

THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS...ALTHOUGH AT THIS
TIME IT SEEMS IT WILL BE FAIRLY SMALL. THAT SAID...THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR THIS THREAT WILL BE MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN FRINGES OF MY
FORECAST AREA AND THIS WILL BEGIN FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

FOR TUCSON...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL
WEDNESDAY AND 5 TO 10 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. FOR THE PERIOD
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...ALTHOUGH THE
COOLEST DAYS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND WHEN HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
10 TO 15 DEGS BELOW NORMAL. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS EXPECTED BY TUESDAY.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE AROUND 5 DEGS ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
MORNINGS...THEN NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY. THEREAFTER...LOWS AROUND 6 TO 8
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...THEN ABOUT 2 TO 4
DEGS BELOW NORMAL FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 04/23Z.
FEW-SCT CLOUDS AT 8-12K FT AGL MAINLY NORTHEAST OF KSAD THRU
04/03Z...OTHERWISE SKC CONDITIONS/CLEAR SKIES THRU THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU 04/06Z.
INCREASING SURFACE WIND AFT 04/06Z...WITH ELY/SELY SURFACE WIND AT
14-20 KTS AND GUSTS TO 20-25 KTS BY 04/12Z...CONTINUING THRU 04/20Z.
DIMINISHING SURFACE WIND AFT 04/20Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED
FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY CONDITIONS WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA FROM THE EAST TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS
OVERSPREADING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH MID-DAY WEDNESDAY FROM THE NEW MEXICO BORDER TO TUCSON. WIND
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS.

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL THEN RETURN THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS A STORM SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ON THURSDAY WILL MAINLY BE FROM THE TUCSON METRO
AREA WESTWARD...WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONG WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD
FROM TUCSON INTO COCHISE COUNTY AND AREAS ADJACENT TO THE NEW MEXICO
BORDER ON FRIDAY. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THURSDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES AND A HIGH FIRE DANGER RATING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 150
AND 151.

THE THREAT FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUES ON FRIDAY
FOR EASTERN AREAS. MOST LIKELY A FIRE WEATHER WATCH WILL BE ISSUED
ON SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRIDAY FOR AREAS EAST OF
TUCSON TO THE NEW MEXICO BORDER.

COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED MOISTURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA LATE FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR MOST LOCATIONS ALONG WITH BREEZES PERSISTING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
    FIRE WEATHER WATCH LATE THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR FIRE ZONES AZZ150-151

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MOLLERE
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...ZELL

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