Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 300934
AFDTWC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
235 AM MST THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE
AT LEAST 7 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS. A TROUGH WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE SKY WAS CLEAR AS OF 2 AM ACROSS SE AZ. HOWEVER
THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING ACROSS SRN CA/NRN BAJA
THIS MORNING WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA TODAY AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES EAST ACROSS THE STATE. MODELS WERE SIMILAR
IN PLACING THE RIDGE AXIS OVER AZ/NM BORDER. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 2-4
DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY.

SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS FRIDAY WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW
OUT OF THE SOUTH PICKING UP A LITTLE BIT OF MOISTURE AND ADVECTING
IT NORTH ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF TUCSON. LITTLE CHANGE IN LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS VALUES WITH HIGHS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.
SOME SPOTS WILL BE NEAR RECORD VALUES FOR HALLOWEEN.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY AND COOLER WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROF MAKES
ITS INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL BE
ACROSS THE EAST-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. TROF AXIS TO MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 31/12Z.
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TERMINALS. SKC CONDITIONS THRU 30/17Z...THEN
INCREASING HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS AOA 20K FT AGL OVERSPREADING THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST. SURFACE WIND GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS THRU
31/03Z...THEN INCREASING SOUTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WITH SURFACE WIND AT
10-15 KTS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW
PATTERN WILL BEGIN TODAY...STRENGTHENING TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING A FEW SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALSO RESULT IN GUSTY
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS IT PASSES NORTH OF
THE AREA. BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON






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