Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
114
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Jan 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity reached low levels this period as Region 2628 (N12E36,
Dai/beta-gamma) produced multiple C-class flares including an impulsive
C9/1f flare and C6 flare observed at 21/0726 UTC and 21/1108 UTC,
respectively. The region displayed growth within the intermediate and
trailer portions and developed intermediate spot mixed polarities.
Region 2627 (N06E15, Dai/beta) indicated slight growth and trailer and
leader spot consolidation, but remained quiet. Regions 2625 (N01W48,
Hax/alpha) and 2626 (N08W37, Hsx/alpha) were quiet and stable. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with a chance for M-class flares
(R1-R2, Minor-Moderate) over the next three days (22-24 Jan) due to the
rapid development and flare potential from both Regions 2627 and 2628.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a maximum flux of 2,839 pfu observed at 21/1715 UTC. The greater than
10 MeV proton flux continued at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate to
high levels on days one through three (22-24 Jan) following elevated
solar wind speeds associated with a positive polarity CH. The greater
than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters continued to slowly decline through the period as
effects from a positive polarity CH HSS slowly waned. Solar wind speed
was steady, starting and ending the period near 525 km/s. Total field
(Bt) ranged from 2-6 nT while the Bz component varied between -4 nT to
+6 nT. Phi angle remained oriented in a predominantly positive sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to continue a gradual decline to
nominal levels over the next three days (22-24 Jan) as CH HSS influence
subsides.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels with an isolated
period of active conditions between the 21/2100-2400 UTC synoptic period
due to waning CH HSS effects.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels on
day one (22 Jan) as CH HSS influence slowly tapers off. Mostly quiet
conditions are expected on days two and three (23-24 Jan).



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.