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FXXX12 KWNP 240031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2017 Oct 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with no flares observed. Region 2685
(S09E45, Hax/alpha) changed little and was inactive. Region 2686
(N12E67, Hax/alpha) underwent some decay and was also inactive. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to remain very low, with a decreasing chance
of C-class flares on days one and two (24-25 Oct) and only a slight
chance for C-class flares by day three (26 Oct) as Region 2686 continues
to decay and Region 2685 remains stable or undergoes slight dissipation.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels,
while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels again on day one (24 Oct) and increase to moderate to
high levels by day two (25 Oct) due to CH HSS influences. Electron flux
is expected to increase further, reaching high levels by day three (26
Oct) due to continuing CH HSS effects. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to continue at background levels.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of an ambient-background like
regime. Total IMF strength began the period at 6 to 7 nT, before it
decreased to between 2 to 4 nT shortly after 23/0300 UTC. The Bz
component was directed northward early in the period, before shifting to
only weak deviations after 23/0300 UTC. Solar wind speed was primarily
between 350-375 km/s. The phi angle began the period in a more
predominant negative (towards the Sun) sector, before it beginning to
undergo oscillations between sectors at approximately 23/1130 UT.

A more definitive SSBC into a positive sector (away from Sun) is
anticipated on day one (24 Oct), followed by an increase in overall IMF
strength due to a CIR. Solar wind speed is expected to increase due to
CH HSS onset later on day one and into day two (24-25 Oct), with speeds
of 600-650 km/s likely as noted in recurrence data and observed in
STEREO-A PLASTIC data. Solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
on day three (26 Oct) as CH HSS influences continue.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was primarily quiet, with a brief unsettled
planetary response to start the period.

The geomagnetic field is expected to react with mainly quiet to active
conditions due to SSBC effects, with a few likely periods of G1 (Minor)
storming later on day one (24 Oct), in response to CIR arrival and CH
HSS onset. Day two (25 Oct) is expected to experience active to minor
(G1) storming, with a few periods of G2 (Moderate) storming likely
early, due to enhanced IMF strength associated with CIR passage and
elevated solar wind speeds from the isolated positive polarity CH HSS.
Day three (26 Oct) is expected to respond with primarily unsettled to
active conditions, with likely periods of G1 (Minor) storming as CH HSS
effects continue. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.