Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 011230
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2015 Sep 01 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 2406 (N03E03, Cro/beta)
and Region 2407 (N15W68, Cro/beta) underwent showed decay as the period
progressed. Region 2405 (S21W09) lost its spots and is now plage only.
There is a new spot group that emerged near the east limb. Further spot
reports are needed to assign a SWPC region number.

Far-side activity has been attributed to a CME that occurred off of the
northern portion of the disk. There was an eruptive prominence off of
the SW limb near 01/0015 UTC and a filament eruption centered near
S18W64 occurred from 01/0605 UTC to 01/0752 UTC. Neither event is
visible yet in LASCO coronagraph imagery. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low on day one (01 Sep). Solar activity
is expected to decrease further to very low levels on days two and three
(02-03 Sep) with a slight chance for C-class flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at moderate to high levels with
a peak flux of 2912 pfu at 31/1940 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue at moderate
to high levels on day one (01 Sep). A decrease to normal to moderate
levels is expected on day two (02 Sep) and continue into day three
(03 Sep) as a coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) becomes
Earth-connected.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters as measured by the ACE spacecraft, indicated
ambient conditions as solar wind velocities continued a slow downward
trend from near 400 km/s to around 375-385 km/s by periods end. The
total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength ranged from 4-6 nT
and the Bz component was variable with a maximum southward deflection of
-4 nT. The phi angle remained in a negative (towards) orientation.

.Forecast...
A solar sector boundary crossing (SSBC) is expected later on day one (01
Sep) just ahead of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) preceding a
positive polarity CH HSS. The SSBC and CIR are likely to disturb the IMF
and solar wind velocities are expected to increase as the CH HSS become
geoeffective. The increased solar wind speeds are expected to continue
into day two and much of day three (02-03 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet to unsettled
early on day one (01 Sep) before becoming agitated to active to minor
(G1-Minor) storming levels as the CIR disturbs the Earths
magnetosphere and the positive polarity CH HSS becomes geoeffective.
Minor (G1-Minor) storming is expected to continue into day two (02 Sep)
before decreasing down to unsettled to active conditions later in the
day. Unsettled to active conditions are expected on day three (03 Sep)
as the CH HSS continues to impact the Earths magnetosphere.


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