Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 191231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Sep 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity returned to low levels. Region 2169 (N05E47, Cao/beta)
produced the largest flare of the period, a C3 flare at 18/1730 UTC.
This region appeared stable and fairly inactive in the hours following
the C-flare. Region 2166 (N12W20, Cao/beta) also produced a few low
level C-class flares and exhibited continued signs of decay. A new area
of enhanced plage with a few spots visible just rotated on to the
visible disk. This area remains unnumbered until it rotates further onto
the disk in order to better classify its magnetic complexity. All other
regions were either stable or in decay, and all were unremarkable.

An approximately 18 long filament, centered near S22E36, was observed
lifting off the visible disk in SDO/AIA 304 imagery from 19/0709-1009
UTC. Analysis will be accomplished as data becomes available to
determine if there is any Earth-directed component of the associated
coronal mass ejection (CME).

.Forecast...
Solar activity is likely to be low with slight chance for an M-class
flare (R1-Minor)for the next three days (19-21 Sep).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
background levels and the greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was at normal levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at or near background levels (Below S1-Minor) for the next three
days (19-21 Sep). The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous
orbit is expected to be at normal to moderate levels over the next three
days (19-21 Sep).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were predominantly at nominal levels for the first
half of the period. Shortly after 19/0300 UTC, the solar wind
environment began to experience the effects from suspected transient
activity. Solar wind speeds increased from a nominal 360 km/s around
19/0300 UTC to reach a peak of 455 km/s at 19/1112 UTC. Total field was
fairly consistent near 8 nT until approximately 19/0700 UTC when it
began to rise, reaching a max of 18 nT at 19/0805 UTC. The Bz component
varied between -7 nT and 6 nT through approximately 19/0700 UTC as well,
when it saw a maximum southward deflection to -9 nT before jumping to a
+17 nT by 19/0800 UTC. Phi angle was predominately in a negative
(towards) orientation with occasional southward transitions until
19/0800 UTC when it began to oscillate between positive and negative
sectors through the end of the period.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain enhanced for the remainder
of the period as residual transient effects continue. Slightly enhanced
conditions are expected for the first part of day two (20 Sep) before
returning to nominal levels by day three (21 Sep).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet through 18/1800 UTC. Beginning at
18/2100 UTC, unsettled to active levels with an isolated period of G1
(Minor) storming conditions were reached. The elevated geomagnetic
activity was in response to enhanced transient activity, influenced by
sub-storming in the nighttime sector.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels,
with G1-Minor storm levels expected through midday on day one (19 Sep).
Quiet to unsettled levels are then expected for day two (20 Sep) with
mostly quiet conditions returning by day three (21 Sep).



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