Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 181231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2018 Jan 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low.  Region 2696 (S12W08, Bxo/beta) continued
to decay over the period, but managed to produce several B-class flares.
The largest was a B9/Sf at 18/0735 UTC.  No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in available satellite imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at very low levels throughout the
forecast period (18-20 Jan).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux was steady at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels on days one and two (18-19 Jan), and normal levels on
day three (20 Jan).  The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to
persist at background levels throughout the forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were at nominal levels today.  Solar wind speed
ranged from approximately 300-350 km/s.  Total field ranged from 3-5 nT
while the Bz component was between +4/-2 nT.  Phi angle was oriented in
a positive (away) solar sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels for the
next two days (18-19 Jan). An enhancement from a CIR and subsequent CH
HSS is expected on day three (20 Jan). Solar wind speeds are expected to
be near 550-575 km/s, as observed in STEREO A PLASTIC data.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet for the next two
days (18-19 Jan), with isolated periods of unsettled conditions on day
two. Day three (20 Jan) is expected to be at mostly unsettled levels
with isolated periods of active conditions due to influences from a CIR
ahead of a negative polarity CH HSS.



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