Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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FXXX12 KWNP 210031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Oct 21 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was very low with no significant flare activity observed.
An eruptive filament was observed in SDO/AIA 304 and GONG imagery,
centered near N25W00, lifting off at approximately 20/1300 UTC.
Forecasters are awaiting coronagraph imagery to determine the potential
for an Earth-directed component. There were no additional CMEs noted in
available satellite imagery during the reporting period.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a slight
chance for C-class flares over the next three days (21-23 Oct).

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached high levels with a peak
flux of 38,252 pfu at 20/1500 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux
continued at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate
to high levels on day one (21 Oct). Days two and three (22-23 Oct),
levels are expected to decrease in response to particle redistribution
associated with the anticipated arrival of a recurrent CH HSS. The
greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background
levels for all three days (21-23 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters reflected nominal conditions. Solar wind speed was
steady at approximately 420 km/s. Total field (Bt) was near 5 nT while
the Bz component dropped to a low value of -3 nT. Phi angle was variable
but predominately oriented in a negative solar sector.

Ambient solar wind conditions are expected to continue on day one (21
Oct). A recurrent, isolated, positive-polarity CH HSS is expected to
enhance conditions on days two and three (22-23 Oct).


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet under a nominal solar wind regime.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet on day one (21
Oct). On day two (22 Oct), conditions are expected to be quiet to active
with likely periods of isolated G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions
due to the onset of a CIR ahead of a recurrent, positive-polarity CH
HSS. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storm conditions are expected
on day three (23 Oct) as CH HSS conditions persist. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.