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FXXX12 KWNP 010031

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Jun 01 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
#             Forecast Discussion
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 2551 (N04W58,
Dso/beta) grew further as it gained penumbral coverage in both leader
and trailer spots. Despite the growth, the magnetic gradient remained
weak and other than producing a few minor x-ray enhancements, the region
was inactive. Region 2550 (N15W45, Cro/beta) was inactive as it decayed
further. Region 2549 (S13W24, Axx/alpha) nearly decayed completely. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels with a chance
for C-class flares all three days (01-03 Jun), with Region 2551 being
the most likely contributor.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to high levels and
reached a maximum flux of 1,905 pfu at 31/1620 UTC. The greater than 10
MeV proton flux continued at background values.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at moderate to
high levels on day one (01 Jun) and decrease to normal to moderate
levels on days two and three (02-03 Jun).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly disturbed IMF
environment in the wake of an exiting CH HSS and Earths proximity to
the heliospheric current sheet. Solar wind speeds decreased from around
500 km/s to about 430-450 km/s the first half of the period, before it
underwent a slight increase to speeds near 500 km/s later in the period.
The total IMF strength ranged primarily from 3 to 5 nT most of the
period, and increased to 8 nT at 31/1300 UTC. The Bz component of the
IMF was variable, with a few prolonged periods of southward direction.
Maximum southward deflection was -6 nT at 31/1946 UTC. The phi angle was
predominantly negative (towards the Sun), with a few brief deviations to
the positive (away from the Sun).

The solar wind environment is expected to return to a nominal solar wind
regime on days one and two (01-02 Jun), however, some minor disturbances
are possible due to Earths proximity to the heliospheric current sheet.
An enhancing IMF is anticipated later on day three (03 Jun) due to
influences from an approaching CIR ahead of an isolated negative
polarity CH HSS.


.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be primarily quiet with isolated
periods of active conditions early on day one (01 Jun) due to the
slightly disturbed IMF. Day two (02 Jun) is expected to be quiet. Day
three (03 Jun) is expected to be mostly quiet with a few unsettled
responses later in the day in reaction to an anticipated slight
enhancement of the IMF. is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.