Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX12 KWNP 221231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Aug 22 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was moderate. Region 2149 (N12E72, Eac/beta) produced the
largest events of the period, an impulsive M3/Sf solar flare at 21/1331
UTC and another impulsive M1/1F flare at 22/0623 UTC.  This region grew
as it rotated into view.

Region 2148 (N06E21, Dac/beta) also grew and produced a C6/Sf flare at
22/0006 UTC.  This event appeared to be associated with radio emissions
including a Type II sweep (578 km/s) at 22/0009 UTC, and a Type IV
sweeps at 22/0002 UTC.  Another Type IV sweep was reported at 22/0418
UTC.

Region 2146 (N10W00, Cso/beta) produced a C2/Sf flare at 22/1027 UTC and
Type II (465 km/s) and Type IV radio emissions.

Region 2143 (S05W44, Dac/beta) also grew, but produced no significant
activity.  The remaining regions were stable or decaying.

No Earth directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph
imagery, however.


.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next three days (22-24
Aug) with an increasing chance for M-class flares, particularly from
Regions 214

Energetic Particles

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit briefly
reached moderate levels while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux
at geosynchronous orbit remained at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is expected
to be at normal to moderate levels for days one through three (22-24
Aug). The greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to remain at background levels (below S1-Minor) throughout the
forecast period.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Nominal solar wind conditions returned at the ACE spacecraft following
the passage of the CME.  Wind speed was generally around 350 km/s.  The
total magnetic field continued to decline in strength, ending near 5 nT
while Bz was weakly negative to neutral, with a maximum southward
deflection of -6 nT around 21/1346 UTC.  Phi was mostly positive.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to reflect mostly nominal
conditions through the forecast period (22-24 Aug).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.

.Forecast...
Predominantly quiet conditions are expected, with a chance for unsettled
periods, for the next three days (22-24 Aug) in the absence of any
transient features.


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