Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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090
FXXX12 KWNP 061231
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2016 Dec 06 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity decreased to very low levels. Region 2615 (S07W39,
Dsi/beta) underwent slight dissipation and was inactive. The regions
magnetic gradient was weak and shear minimal. No Earth-directed CMEs
were observed in available coronagraph imagery.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to continue at very low levels, with a chance
for C-class flares all three days (06-08 Dec) primarily due to the flare
potential of Region 2615.


Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux ranged from normal to high levels,
with a peak flux of 3,396 pfu at 05/1610 UTC. The greater than 10 MeV
proton flux continued at background values.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to continue reaching
high levels all three days (06-08 Dec). The greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is expected to remain at background levels all three days.


Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were indicative of a slightly enhanced and
disturbed environment. The total IMF strength was variable and ranged
primarily between 2 to 6 nT, and began an unsteady increase after about
06/0100 UTC, and reached 10 nT by 06/1100 UTC. The Bz component was also
variable but was predominantly northward between 06/0000-0940 UTC,
before it shifted southward afterwards. Solar wind speed was between
300-350 km/s. The phi angle was primarily positive (away from Sun) until
about 05/2320 UTC, when it deflected into a more predominant negative
(towards the Sun) orientation.

.Forecast...
The solar wind environment is expected to remain disturbed through day
one (06 Dec). A further disturbance and enhancement in total IMF
strength is expected on day two (07 Dec) due to anticipated CIR arrival
followed by elevated solar wind speeds due to onset of a recurrent
negative polarity, polar connected CH HSS. Elevated solar wind speeds
are expected to continue into day three (08 Dec). STEREO-A data suggests
solar wind speeds in excess of 700 km/s are possible.


Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the
remainder of day one (06 Dec) due to responses to the enhanced and
disturbed IMF. Quiet to active conditions are expected on on day two (07
Dec) due to CIR and initial CH HSS effects. Day three (08 Dec) is
expected to be primarily unsettled to active, with a likely period of
minor (G1-Minor) storming due to escalating solar wind speeds of the CH
HSS.



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