Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
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000
FXXX12 KWNP 220031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity remained at moderate levels due to an M1/1n flare at
21/0732 UTC from Region 2242 (S18W57, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and a long
duration M1 flare at 21/1217 UTC from Region 2141 (S10W33,
Ehc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 2242 contributed to the majority of the
C-class flaring as well. Both Regions 2241 and 2242 exhibited penumbral
decay within its intermediate and trailing areas. Moderate growth and
consolidation was observed in Region 2244 (S04E28, Dao/beta). This
region produced a C5 flare at 21/0455 UTC. New Regions 2245 (N08E60,
Cao/beta) and 2246 (N17E78, Hsx/alpha were numbered during the period.
The remaining regions were stable and quiet. No Earth-directed coronal
mass ejections (CMEs) were observed.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to remain at moderate (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate)
levels with a chance for further X-class flaring (R3-Strong or greater)
for the next three days (22-24 Dec) as Regions 2241 and 2242 remain
large and magnetically complex.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was at
normal to moderate levels reaching a max flux of 400 pfu at 21/1915 UTC.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained slightly enhanced at 3-4
pfu, however it remained well below the 10 pfu (S1-Minor) threshold.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels for the forecast period (22-24 Dec). There is a chance
for a greater than 10 MeV proton event (S1-Minor) due to the potential
for significant flare activity from Regions 2241 or 2242.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
The ACE satellite observed a pair of discontinuities in the solar wind
field during the past 24 hours. The first discontinuity at 21/0235 UTC
was weak and possibly indicated the arrival of a glancing blow from the
17 December CME. Total field increased slightly from 6 nT to 8 nT while
the Bz component mostly remained southward to -8 nT for about 16 hours.
No significant increase in solar wind speeds was observed as they
remained steady at about 350 km/s.

At about 21/1824 UTC, the second stronger discontinuity was observed.
This second discontinuity probably signaled the arrival of the 18
December CME. Total field increased sharply from 9 nT to 17 nT while the
Bz component dipped further southward to -13 nT. Wind speeds increased
from approximately 350 km/s to about 450 km/s. Subsequent increases were
also observed in density and temperature.

ACE/EPAM lower energy particle measurements rose through the period and
peaked at about 21/1900 UTC and remained steady through the remainder of
the period. Phi angle was in a mostly positive (away) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to remained enhanced through early on
day one (22 Dec) with the arrival of the 18 Dec CME. Solar wind
characteristics are expected to reflect the waning influence of the CME
on day two (23 Dec) into day three (24 Dec) and the growing influence of
a weak, negative polarity coronal hole high speed stream( CH HSS).

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with isolated high
latitude major storm periods.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is expected remain at unsettled to isolated minor
storm levels (G1/Minor) through early on day one (22 Dec). Unsettled to
active levels are expected to persist through the remainder of 22
December. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on days two and three
(23-24 Dec) as a weak, negative CH HSS moves into a geoeffective
position.


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