Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS21 KWNS 011538
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1037 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

VALID 011700Z - 021200Z

NO CHANGES NEEDED. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE
DETAILS.

..LEITMAN.. 08/01/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0335 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN TODAY FEATURES A LARGE-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
ERN CONUS AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST SLOWLY SHIFTING EWD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.  AT THE SURFACE...CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN CASCADES...INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY.  REGARDING FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS...ELEVATED CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH
OF NORTHERN/EASTERN MONTANA WHILE PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA/SOUTHWESTERN OREGON WILL HAVE CHANCES FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

...NRN/ERN MONTANA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WRN ND/NWRN SD...
THIS REGION WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF ENHANCED
MID/LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC WNWLY FLOW.  VERTICAL MIXING IN COMBINATION
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA SHOULD AID IN SUSTAINED AFTERNOON WNWLY SURFACE WINDS AROUND
15 MPH /APPROACHING 20 MPH IN NERN MT/.  WITH DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS
ENHANCING THE VERTICAL MIXING...RH VALUES WILL FALL TO 10-15 PERCENT
OVER THE REGION...LEADING TO ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

...NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWESTERN OREGON...
DIURNAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO TERRAIN-INDUCED CIRCULATIONS AND LIKELY
RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER FAVORED LOCATIONS
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  GIVEN THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP
INVERTED-V PROFILES DURING THE AFTERNOON /ESPECIALLY ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN OREGON/...CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORMS.  THE LACK OF A LARGE-SCALE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AND EXPECTED SLOW STORM MOTIONS /LESS THAN 20 MPH/ WILL
LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE APPRECIABLE/WIDESPREAD DRY THUNDERSTORM
EVENT.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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