Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 261608
FWDDY1

DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1107 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016

VALID 261700Z - 271200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...

...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
MODERATE TO STRONG OFFSHORE GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION
THIS MORNING WITH RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEALING A -10.7 MB
LAX-TPH GRADIENT...A -5.3 LAX-DAG GRADIENT...AND A -7 MB SAN-LAS
GRADIENT. POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERY WAS REALIZED WITH MOST SITES
ACROSS THE REGION REPORTING RH VALUES AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT BUT
THE STRONGEST GUSTS ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND OVERNIGHT BUT A WEAKENING GRADIENT COUPLED WITH INCREASED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL RESULTING IN
A GRADUALLY DECREASING FIRE WEATHER THREAT. EVEN SO...THREAT WILL
REMAIN HIGH ENOUGH THROUGH THE MID-AFTERNOON TO MAINTAIN THE
CRITICAL DELINEATION AND NO CHANGE IS NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

..MOSIER.. 09/26/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0235 AM CDT MON SEP 26 2016/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID/UPPER-LEVEL REX PATTERN WILL BE ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS A LOW SLOWLY DRIFTS NORTH NEAR BAJA
CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE STAYS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD MAINTAIN EAST/NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. ELSEWHERE...A CORRIDOR OF STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE POSITIONED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN
EMBEDDED LOW NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

...PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...
ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS IS EXPECTED
TODAY...WITH GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES LIKELY ONGOING ACROSS
HIGHER ELEVATIONS/TERRAIN-FAVORED AREAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. THROUGH THE LATE MORNING HOURS...RH VALUES SHOULD QUICKLY
FALL INTO THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS. MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
SOMEWHAT WEAKER THAN THAT OF THE PREVIOUS DAY...BUT IT SHOULD STILL
ENCOURAGE GUSTY OFFSHORE FLOW IN MANY LOCATIONS THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. MOREOVER...MORE EASTERLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL LIKELY EXIST ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SAN DIEGO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTIES.
REGARDLESS...AREAS OF SUSTAINED WINDS AROUND 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS
OF 30-45 MPH/ ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
CRITICAL FIRE-WEATHER CONCERNS.

WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SOME LATER IN THE DAY...BEFORE NOCTURNAL
STRENGTHENING OF OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...RH RECOVERY
SHOULD BE GREATER VERSUS THAT OF THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES. THUS...WHILE SOME ELEVATED CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE LOCALIZED AT
BEST.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

$$


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