Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS21 KWNS 261641

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017

Valid 261700Z - 271200Z


The critical area along the middle Rio Grande Valley has been
expanded westward into the Big Bend region of TX. 16Z surface
observations indicate elevated to borderline critical conditions are
already occurring across this area along/ahead of a cold front. RH
values will likely fall into the 10-15% range for a few hours this
afternoon, and strong/gusty northwesterly winds of 20-25 mph will be

A southeastward expansion into deep south TX has also been made to
the critical delineation based on latest short-term guidance and
fuel information. Across this region, sustained winds of 20-25 mph
are expected as temperatures warm into the 90s/low 100s and RH
values fall below 20%. Although green-up of most fuels has occurred
across south TX, lack of recent precipitation has allowed fine fuels
to become receptive to large fire starts.

Across portions of eastern AZ into southern NM, locally critical
fire weather conditions may occur, but only isolated/brief instances
of sustained winds above 20 mph preclude a critical area with this

An elevated area has been introduced across parts of the central FL
peninsula per recent surface observations, short-term guidance, and
fuel info. Although low-level flow is forecast to remain weak,
sustained winds around 10 mph, RH values falling into the 30-40%
range, and dry fuels due to persistent drought support the elevated

..Gleason.. 04/26/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1230 AM CDT Wed Apr 26 2017/

An intense mid/upper level trough over the southern High Plains will
eject east across TX today to the mid-MS/lower OH River Valley by
early Thursday morning. Strong deep-layer west/northwesterly flow
will persist from the southwestern deserts into the southern Plains.
While severe storms are expected across parts of the Ozarks and
mid-to-lower MS Valley ahead of the trough, elevated to critical
fire weather conditions are expected across much of AZ/NM and into
parts of western and southern TX.

...Much of AZ/NM into western and southern TX...

Widespread elevated to briefly critical conditions are expected
across parts of central and eastern AZ into much of NM.  RH values
will be low, from 10-20 percent and west to northwesterly surface
winds will range from 15-20 mph with higher gusts. Concerns of
longevity of critical conditions and spotty nature of the strongest
wind speeds will preclude upgrades to critical across parts of
southeast AZ/southwest NM into parts of east-central NM.
Additionally, uncertainty in available fuels exists across eastern
NM due to ongoing green-up.

Further southeast into western and southern TX, gusty winds will be
enhanced as a cold front drops southward across central into
southern TX during the afternoon. Northwesterly surface winds of
20-25 mph with higher gusts are expected. As high temperatures warm
into the mid 80s to mid 90s, RH values will fall into the 10-15
percent range. Further south into south TX, there are concerns over
fuel receptiveness and while gusty winds and low RH conditions will
exist, will not upgrade this region given uncertainty in fuel

...Please see for graphic product...

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