Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 191913
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0113 PM CST Fri Jan 19 2018

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

The ongoing forecast is on track, with only minimal eastward and
southward expansions to the ongoing elevated area.  These changes
are based on latest guidance, which is trending a bit warmer/drier
with surface conditions during the afternoon - particularly in
western Oklahoma and southward toward the US 281 corridor in
west-central Texas.  Locally critical conditions remain possible in
a few areas of central New Mexico, where slightly stronger (20-25
mph) surface flow will exist amidst near-critical RH values (around
15%).

See the previous discussion below for more information.

..Cook.. 01/19/2018

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Fri Jan 19 2018/

...Synopsis...
...Southern High Plains...

Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the
southern Rockies and southern High Plains on Saturday as the western
trough shifts east over the Great Basin during the afternoon.
Surface low pressure will develop over CO and southwesterly surface
winds will increase through the afternoon. There still is some
uncertainty regarding strength of surface winds with differences
amongst various guidance. Sustained winds should range from 15-25
mph and some areas of critical conditions are possible. Warm and dry
conditions will persist, with above-normal temperatures in the upper
60s and low 70s and RH values falling to around 12-20 percent. Given
low confidence in stronger winds aligning with critically low RH
values on more than a brief/spotty basis, will hold off on an
upgrade to critical at this time.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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