Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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FNUS22 KWNS 231923
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 PM CDT Sun Apr 23 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA AND MUCH OF NEW
MEXICO...

Latest guidance supports the ongoing forecast. Only minor changes
have been made.

..Marsh.. 04/23/2017

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1158 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017/

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow will continue over the Four Corners region
through the afternoon before larger-scale height falls occur
overnight. This will lead to another day of strong westerly
deep-layer flow across the region. Surface pressure also will be
falling during the day, allowing for increasing wind speeds.
Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are expected across
eastern AZ into much of NM, as well as parts of southeast
UT/southwest CO and western TX.

...Eastern AZ, much of NM, far southeast UT/southwest CO, and
portions of western TX...

Temperatures will warm into the 70s across the northern portion of
the risk area while low 90s are possible across southern AZ/NM into
western TX. Widespread single digit RH values also are expected,
with 10-15 percent more common in the surrounding elevated area. As
temperatures warm and boundary layer mixing occurs, sustained
west/southwesterly surface winds will increase to around 20-30 mph
with higher gusts /15-20 mph in the elevated area/. Where fuels are
dry, this will lead to several hours of elevated to critical fire
weather conditions across the region. Gusty winds will continue in
higher elevations, especially across central NM, into the overnight
hours, but should diminish in lower elevations during the evening
hours. Additionally, RH values will recover into the 30-50 percent
range across AZ during the nighttime hours, but poor recovery is
expected across much of NM with RH values remaining in the 15-25
percent range.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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