Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 031919
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0219 PM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR ERN/SRN NV AND NWRN UT...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR WRN NV...

THE ONGOING FORECAST FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
PORTIONS OF ERN/SRN NEVADA AND NWRN UTAH REMAINS ON TRACK.  A
SEPARATE CRITICAL AREA HAS BEEN ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF WRN NEVADA IN
THE LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS. MULTI-MODEL/ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM 12Z
SUGGESTS THAT DOWNWARD MIXING /AIDED BY DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS/ OF STRONG
MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN SUFFICIENT DRYING AND STRONG WINDS AT
THE SURFACE FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

..JIRAK.. 09/03/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0425 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015/

...SYNOPSIS...
A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAXIMUM IS FORECAST TO ROTATE AROUND THE BASE OF
AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE WRN CONUS ON D2/FRI. THIS UPPER
TROUGH SHOULD MAKE A SLIGHT EWD PROGRESSION THROUGH THE PERIOD...
WHILE BROAD RIDGING OVER THE CNTRL/ERN CONUS ALSO MOVES EWD. AHEAD
OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AN AREA OF SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY DEEPEN
THROUGH FRI EVENING ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN. AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC SHOULD REMAIN OVER WRN CO AND PORTIONS
OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

...PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN...
ENHANCED MID-LEVEL WINDS AND AN INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/GUSTY SFC WINDS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE GREAT BASIN ON D2/FRI...AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
SHOULD OCCUR FROM ERN/CNTRL/SRN NV NEWD INTO PORTIONS OF WRN UT FRI
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACROSS THIS REGION...STRONG WINDS OF 20-30
MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS LIKELY...AND RH VALUES RANGING FROM 8-15
PERCENT IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY FUELS SUPPORT THE CRITICAL AREA.
SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS AND/OR RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS A LARGER PORTION OF
THE GREAT BASIN...INCLUDING PARTS OF WRN NV AND SERN ID. ACROSS WRN
NV...THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CRITICAL THRESHOLDS TO BE MET PER
00Z GFS...BUT AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE FORECAST OFFICE IN RENO
NV...THERE IS TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN WHETHER ENHANCED WLY MID-LEVEL
WINDS CAN REACH THE SFC TO INCLUDE WRN NV IN A CRITICAL DESIGNATION
AT THIS TIME.

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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