Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 120739
FWDDY2

DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 AM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

VALID 131200Z - 141200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR CNTRL ORE...

...SYNOPSIS...
A SEASONABLY STRONG CLOSED MID-UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SWD
ACROSS WRN ONTARIO...FOSTERING AN AMPLIFICATION OF AN UPPER TROUGH
FROM THE NRN PLAINS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A MIDLEVEL
ANTICYCLONE WILL REMAIN FIXED OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WHILE A COMPACT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTS AN ACCOMPANYING RIDGE OVER THE PAC NW. THE
LATTER FEATURE WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN TSTM ACTIVITY OVER
WA/ORE...WITH SCATTERED DRY TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER CNTRL ORE.
MEANWHILE...RICHER MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD WWD INTO SRN CA IN
THE PRESENCE OF STRENGTHENING MIDLEVEL ELYS...WITH SCATTERED WET
TSTMS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF AZ/NM.

...CNTRL ORE/WA...FAR NRN CA AND NWRN NV...
A COMPACT SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO REACH THE ORE COAST DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON...FOSTERING AN INCREASE IN MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND
SWLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION. STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL YIELD
WELL-ABOVE NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S/100S F. THE
RESULTANT DESTABILIZATION /E.G. 250-500 J/KG OF MLCAPE/ COMBINED
WITH AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRENGTHENING
OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS WILL PROMOTE DIURNALLY ENHANCED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST RISK FOR DRY TSTMS /SUPPORTED BY STORM
MOTIONS OF 20-30 MPH/ IS LIKELY TO EXIST ALONG/E OF THE CASCADE
RANGE...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER RH WILL LOWER TO AROUND 15
PERCENT...WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE EXPECTED IN CNTRL ORE. COVERAGE
SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED OVER CNTRL WA...AS WELL AS NRN CA AND
NWRN NV...AS THESE AREAS WILL REMAIN FARTHER REMOVED FROM THE
STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT. PW VALUES OF 1-1.5 INCH W OF THE
CASCADE RANGE IN ORE WILL GENERALLY FAVOR WET TSTMS ACROSS THIS
AREA.

..ROGERS.. 07/12/2014

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...




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