Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 211601
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1101 AM CDT MON AUG 21 2017

                  VALID AUGUST 21 THROUGH AUGUST 26

...RAINFALL ANTICIPATED AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH PASSAGE
OF COLD FRONT...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
High pressure is in place over Texas, bringing hot conditions to the
region. Along the western edge of the ridge, locally heavy rainfall
has been observed in New Mexico as well as in northwestern Texas
during the past couple of days. Rainfall is ongoing in southern New
Mexico, and this is expected to continue and move slowly
northeastward as an upper level disturbance moves through a moist
atmosphere over the state. Rainfall locally heavy enough for flash
flooding is possible today in New Mexico. Southeastern Texas,
especially near the coast, should be active today with showers and
thunderstorms.  Widespread heavy amounts are not expected.

The west should remain in an active monsoon pattern during the week,
but the threat for heavy rainfall should be reduced after today
before returning mid to late week. Organized showers and
thunderstorms with locally heavy rain can be expected in northern and
central Texas beginning Wednesday due to the passage of a cold
front.

The remnants of tropical storm Harvey are being closely watched as
the system moves to the northwest.  Some of the effects might be
felt in deep south Texas.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of an inch are forecast for northeastern
portions of New Mexico and the Houston/Beaumont area.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50
of an inch are forecast for northeastern portions of New Mexico and
south central Colorado in the upper Rio Grande valley.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 of
an inch are forecast for a narrow strip of Texas from Midland east
through Nacogdoches and into central Louisiana.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to nearly 4
inches are forecast for most of New Mexico, south central Colorado
and Texas, with the heaviest amounts noted in deep south Texas and
northern Mexico.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Texas shows the area considered
to be abnormally dry is around 10%, and only 1% of Texas is
experiencing moderate drought conditions.  In New Mexico, only 1% of
the state is experiencing abnormally dry conditions, and that is in
the southwest portion. The rainfall forecast the next five days may
be heavy enough to produce runoff in southern New Mexico and
possibly along the Rio Grande in far western Texas. Otherwise, there
may be some runoff mid week in North Texas.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Luis Leon reservoir in Mexico is releasing water which will keep the
Rio Grande higher than normal through the Presidio and Big Bend
regions.  Current release is near 8800 cfs pushing the International
Bridge at Presidio (PRST2) into minor flood levels.  Other locations
from Candelaria downstream through Boquillas are experiencing higher
flows above action stage.

...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
The headwaters of the Sabine are still experiencing minor flood
levels after additional recent heavy rainfall.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
All other mainstem sites and tributaries are at seasonal flow levels
with no additional flooding expected for the next few days.  Remnants
of tropical cyclone Harvey are being closely watched by the WGRFC
staff for potential impacts to our southern boundary along the Rio
Grande valley in a few days.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/NWSWestGulf

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.weather.gov/wgrfc/wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

CAZIER


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