Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 281620
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1117 AM CDT THU MAY 28 2015

                     VALID MAY 28 THROUGH JUNE 2

...ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE WGRFC REGION
NEXT 24 HOURS...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
A complex of showers and thunderstorms developed overnight near
the Texas Panhandle...and continued moving over areas of North
Texas and the Red River this morning. Currently, the heaviest
rainfall is confined to areas along the Red River and will continue
to move into southeastern Oklahoma over the next couple of hours.
Elsewhere, another area of showers and thunderstorms is developing
over New Mexico and will eventually move into the Texas Panhandle
and West Texas through the late morning and afternoon hours. This
activity is not expected to cause any additional rises on the
rivers through this afternoon.

Another upper level disturbance is expected to move across the
WGRFC area later day, which will result in yet another complex of
showers and thunderstorms developing over portions of Northwest and
North Texas this evening and continuing through the overnight hours.
Rainfall amounts of up to 1.00 are expected for areas along and west
of I-35. However due to a very unstable and moist atmosphere, higher
amounts are certainly possible.

By late tomorrow through Saturday morning...a few upper air
disturbances combined with a cold front moving across the
Central Plains, will add additional rainfall to most of the WGRFC
area. Overall, this activity is expected to continue through the
weekend...which may add additional rises to some river basins
that are currently in moderate or major flooding.

The latest forecast models are indicating rainfall will remain in
the forecast for most of the WGRFC area though next week, however
rainfall amounts are not expected to be significant. We will
continue to monitor and update accordingly with any changes

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Friday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of up to 1.00 inch are forecast from an area along and
west of I-35.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.50 to 1.00 inch
are forecast for portions of North and Central Texas...mainly
along and north of I-20. Less amounts are forecast for areas along
and south of I-20.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for areas stretching from the Big Bend northeastward
to Northeast Texas.

For Sunday into Tuesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Northeast and East Texas.

Drought conditions continue to improve across most of the WGRFC
area. Recent precipitation events have brought drought relief
to many parts of Texas.  In Texas, only about 15% of the state
is experiencing moderate or worse drought, and extreme to
exceptional drought conditions are no longer being observed.
In New Mexico, a little over a third of the state is experiencing
moderate or worse drought (37%), and they also are free from extreme
or exceptional drought conditions. Many of the lakes in Texas
have levels which have risen due to recent rainfall, and some lakes
are full and are releasing water. The rainfall expected over the
next five days over especially the northern half of Texas will be
heavy enough to produce significant runoff, and minor runoff is
expected over the remainder of Texas. Elsewhere over the WGRFC
area no significant runoff is anticipated.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Guadalupe Basin...
...Major Flooding...
As the flood wave moves downstream, Gonzales (GNLT2) and
Westhoff (WHOT2) have crested and continue to fall. The flood
wave continues to arrive at Cuero with major flooding forecasted
at Cuero (CUET2), Victoria (VICT2) and Dupont (DUPT2).

...Nueces Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Inflows into Choke Canyon Reservoir are on the increase.
The Frio River at Tilden (TIDT2) is forecast to rise into minor
flood by the weekend. However, Choke Canyon is well below the top
of the conservation pool at this time and is increasing only
slowly. On the Nueces River, upstream points at Asherton (ASRT2)
and Cotulla (COTT2) have crested and will remain near steady to
slowly falling. Water is now moving downstream to Tilden (TILT2),
which will be rising into major flood over the next few
days. Three Rivers (THET2) will be rising into moderate flood by
early next week. Inflows into Lake Corpus Christi will once again be
on the increase early next week due to these rises. Releases are up
slightly to 5120 cfs, which has lead to renewed major flooding at
Bluntzer (CBVT2). Calallen (CAAT2) is expected to see a slight rise
in the next couple of days. Depending on how much inflow comes into
the reservoir next week, renewed increases in release are possible
at some point later in the week.

...San Jacinto Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The West Fork of the San Jacinto river near
Porter (PTET2) and at Humble (HMMT2) are currently in major flood
category.  Widespread minor flooding and above normal flow levels
continue across the San Jacinto River basin.

...Colorado Basin...
...Major Flooding...
The river has crested and is falling everywhere upstream of
Columbusm (CBST2), which is currently near crest. The Colorado
River at Wharton (WHAT2) is expected to rise into the 45 to 46 foot
range by Saturday morning, which is several feet above major flood
stage. Elevated flows below flood stage will continue downstream.

...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy rainfall across the entire Trinity River drainage has caused
widespread bankfull, minor, and moderate flood flow conditions.
Rainfall in the past 24 hours has caused quick rises in the Fort
Worth area on the Clear and West Fork Trinity Rivers. These flows,
combined with about a half inch of forecast rainfall, are expected
to cause a rise of about a foot at Dallas in the next couple of
days. The Trinity River at Trinidad (TDDT2), near Long Lake (LOLT2),
and at Liberty (LBYT2) locations are above major flood levels and
still rising.  At Padera Lake, on the Mountain Creek drainage, the
dam is closely being monitored.  Flood control reservoirs continue
to store flood waters minimizing downstream flood conditions.

...Brazos Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Heavy, localized rainfall (3 to 4 inches) recently occurred in (1)
the Possum Kingdom Lake area and (2) further downstream around
Hempstead and Richmond.  More widespread lesser rainfall amounts
also occurred between these two locations.

Major flooding is forecast to occur on the Brazos River at Richmond
(RMOT2).  The river at this location is forecast to crest around 50
feet late Friday / early Saturday.  At a river level of 50.2, the
Fort Bend Levee Improvement District enters into critical flood
fighting operations.

Upstream, voluntary evacuations have occurred in the Horseshoe Bend
Area, upstream of Granbury Reservoir.  The Brazos River at Dennis
(DNNT2), located upstream of this area, is forecast to crest around
24 feet this evening, below the moderate flood level.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The Neches River system remains in elevated flow levels with
several locations currently in flood.  The Neches River near Alto
(ATOT2) is at moderate levels.  Nearly every forecast point within
the Neches River system is above flood stage or forecast to rise
above flood stage. Lakes in the region are all full and are passing
their inflows unless designed for flood control. B.A. Steinhagen
Lake has stabilized with their current releases, but additional
rainfall could require additional increases this weekend. The
coastal sites (SOLT2), (BEAT2), (KOUT2) should remain in minor
flood stages. Sam Rayburn remains below its surcharge area, but
is still rising.

...Sabine Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The uppermost section of the Sabine River has recovered from the
rainfall event earlier this week, but Lake Tawakoni (PNTT2)
continues to spill for the first time in years. This water,
added to local runoff below the dam will allow the Sabine River
near Mineola to rise slightly into its moderate flood category
level. The rest of the river between Mineola and Toledo Bend is
seeing mostly minor flooding. Toldeo Bend continues to pass inflows
with current releases at 28kcfs; not expected to increase next
24hrs. Moderate flooding continues on the lower Sabine River Basin
through Bon Wier (BWRT2) and Deweyville (DWYT2) as Toledo Bend
Reservoir continues to pass large inflows.

...San Antonio Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The San Antonio River at Goliad (GLIT2) will crest above moderate
flood stage Friday.

...San Bernard Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
The rivers are crested or near crest. At Boling (BOLT2) and Sweeny
(SWYT2) moderate flooding is occurring.

...Lavaca-Navidad Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
There is minor flooding ongoing at a few locations.

...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Releases out of Marte Gomez Reservoir in Mexico are driving a
rise on the Rio Grande near San Benito and Ramirez (SBNT2).
This rise will continue downstream to Brownsville and Matamoros.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Currently, most rivers are have ongoing flooding conditions and
remain very sensitive to further rainfall. Soil conditions remain
very saturated and any further rainfall will only exacerbate the
ongoing flooding.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

MCCANTS


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