Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 251640
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1139 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

                    VALID JULY 25 THROUGH JULY 30

...STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR
THE WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

A strong high pressure system remains over much of the area as it
slowly progresses south eastward.  Currently the upper level high is
centered over the panhandle and is not forecasted to move
significantly over the weekend.  Its progression further eastward
will be cut off by the end of the weekend as a trough is forecasted
to dig southward early next week.  For the weekend expect hot and dry
conditions with the occasional coastal storm as well as some minor
monsoonal rainfall out west in northern New Mexico and southern
Colorado.

Looking into next week, the upper level trough will remain far to the
east of Texas to cause a major impact to the region, however a cold
front associated with the back side of the trough is forecasted to
dip into northern Texas late Monday early Tuesday.  This could bring
some precipitation back to the region as well but forecasted amounts
are not forecasted to create a large impact to the rivers or the
drought over the area.  This front will continue to push south into
Tuesday, but the timing and progression of the system is still
unclear that far out into the future.


                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inches are
forecasted by WPC for northern New Mexico and southern Colorado as
part of the monsoonal rainfalls.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.5 inch rainfall
spreads further south and east from northern New Mexico as the front
begins to push through northern Texas.  0.25 inch contour extends out
from there but will not reach any river system in Texas, just
northern New Mexico.

Extreme to exceptional drought persists over parts of southwest
Texas, as well as over the western parts of north Texas into the
Texas Panhandle and northeast New Mexico.  Statewide, less than 1%
of New Mexico and about 3% of Texas are in exceptional drought.
But, severe drought conditions are impacting 78% of New Mexico and
33% of Texas.  The monsoonal rains in New Mexico have reduced the
drought conditions over the past couple weeks, while over Texas the
drought has diminished over roughly the southeast quarter. More
rain is forecast the next 5 days over New Mexico which will help to
ease the drought conditions, but over Texas rainfall amounts will be
minimal and will be concentrated mainly along and near the Gulf
coast.  Therefore, no significant runoff is expected the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...WGRFC Basins...
All WGRFC river forecast locations are flowing near or below for this
time of year.  Soil moisture conditions are continuing to dry across
the area.  No significant flooding is expected through the end of the
forecast period.



              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

GIARDINO


$$





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