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Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC
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AGUS74 KFWR 221530
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1030 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

                     VALID MAY 22 THROUGH MAY 27

...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THE WEEKEND...

                    ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS EAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT
NOW CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD JUST OFF THE TEXAS UPPER GULF
COAST.  THE CENTRAL PLAINS UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS WEAKENING AS
IT MOVES EASTWARD AND ESTABLISHING A BROAD, WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
TO BUILD OVER THE WGRFC AREA TODAY AND THURSDAY. ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
FLOW, SEVERAL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE WEST FROM THE
PANHANDLE SOUTH TO THE BIG BEND THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY.

ANOTHER LARGE SPRAWLING CLOSED UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TODAY WITH CIRCULATION EXPANDING TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN NEVADA.  THIS SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN AND
SHIFT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE AREA EASTWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are forecast across isolated areas of west and Panhandle Texas.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inches or less
are forecast across west and Panhandle Texas.

For Saturday into Monday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

THE ONGOING DROUGHT REMAINS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE ENTIRE WGRFC
AREA.  ABOUT 68 PERCENT OF TEXAS REMAINS IN SEVERE DROUGHT, OR
WORSE. IN NEW MEXICO, DROUGHT CONDITIONS ARE EVEN MORE WIDESPREAD,
WITH NEARLY 97 PERCENT OF THE STATE IN SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL
DROUGHT.   LOCALIZED RUNOFF IS POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS.  WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF IS POSSIBLE LATE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EAST TEXAS.  MAINSTEM
RIVER FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.  WIDESPREAD
RIVER FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Sabine Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Heavy rainfall fell over portions of the upper Sabine River on
yesterday, and caused some minor flooding at Greenville (GNVT2) and
Quinlan  (QLAT2). Both basins are currently above flood stage and
are near crest now. They are expected to quickly fall below action
stage later today. No significant rainfall is expected over this
area through the end of the week.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Elsewhere, WGRFC forecast points remain below criteria. No
significant flooding is expected over the next 5 days.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

MCKEE


$$
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
