Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 031611
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1111 AM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

                   VALID AUGUST 3 THROUGH AUGUST 8

...ONE MORE ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST
TODAY...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
Widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms was observed
throughout New Mexico, southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas,
especially within the Panhandle, during the past 24 hours ending
this Monday morning. Isolated amounts over 1 inch were observed
throughout this area.

An upper level ridge of high pressure continues to dominate the
weather of the WGRFC area of responsibility. The positioning of the
ridge is now transitioning to a less favorable location for
precipitation in the area, centered on southern New Mexico and
Arizona. Drier air is already moving into central New Mexico,
greatly reducing the chance for thunderstorms there. One more round
of widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected to the north
and east of this dry air, in southern Colorado, southeastern and
northeastern New Mexico, and the Rolling Plains and Panhandle Plains
of West Texas. Isolated amounts in excess of 1 inch can be expected.

From Tuesday into Saturday, rainfall should be focused to the north
of the WGRFC area of responsibility, along the northeastern edge of
the upper level high. Some of this activity may enter far northern
Texas, but the chance for significant rainfall is low at least into
Saturday morning throughout the region.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Tuesday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 to 1.5 inch are forecast for the Texas Panhandle.
MAP amounts of 0.25 to 1 inch are forecast for the mountains of
southwestern Colorado. MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.5 inch are forecast
for portions of southern New Mexico, northeastern New Mexico and
southeastern Colorado, and the Rolling Plains of West Texas. Lesser
MAP amounts are forecast for most of the rest of New Mexico,
southern Colorado, and northwestern Texas.

For Tuesday into Wednesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Wednesday into Thursday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Thursday into Saturday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

Lakes over the northeastern half of Texas are still releasing water
according to regulation rules and schedules. Soil moisture has been
very high across much of Texas from rainfall over the past two
months. However, with the dry spell through July, topsoil continues
to dry out in Texas. The rainfall forecast over the next five days
will not be heavy enough to cause significant runoff.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Minor Flooding...
Increased releases from Lewisville and Grapevine will push Carrolton
into flood stage for the forecast period.  This will be updated as
further release information is acquired from the Corps on their
projections over the next few days.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The remainder of WGRFC rivers are below criteria, and no significant
rainfall is expected over the forecast period.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

PHILPOTT


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