Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 061529
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1029 AM CDT FRI MAY 6 2016

                     VALID MAY 6 THROUGH MAY 11

...CALM AND CLEAR WEATHER TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

                  ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
The ridge of high pressure centered over Texas is keeping conditions
calm and comfortable which is expected to continue into Sunday.
This will allow reservoirs to evacuate some of their flood pools and
soils to dry a little of the upper layers. Elsewhere, some light
showers developed over portions of southern Colorado and northern
New Mexico, early this morning. This activity is expected to
remain light through the remainder of the day.

The next system to impact the WGRFC area is possible sometime
Sunday evening through Monday morning. By early Sunday, the
ridge of high pressure is forecast to shift towards the east,
as an upper level storm system moves over the Four Corners.
As the system approaches from the west, showers and thunderstorms
will begin to develop over portions of West Texas Sunday and will
continue spreading eastwards across the area, through Monday
morning. Based on the most recent model data, precipitation
forecast during this time period, is not expected to be
significant enough to cause any additional river impacts.

A stronger system is forecast to impact the area towards the end
of the next week. This system may cause some significant impacts
across the area, however this event is still several days away,
and a lot can change between now and then. The WGRFC will continue
to monitor the trends and update accordingly.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Saturday morning, no significant Mean Areal
Precipitation (MAP) amounts are forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Saturday into Sunday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for portions of Central Texas.

For Monday into Wednesday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or
less are forecast for portions of Central and East Texas.

Soils are now very moist across a good part of the state, especially
the eastern portions. Texas is now categorized as being 13%
abnormally dry, with 2% in the moderate drought category. Over New
Mexico, almost the entire state remains in the abnormally dry
category, and 44% is in moderate drought.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Trinity Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Most locations across the entire Trinity River Basin are now
receding following recent rainfall.  Most water supply reservoirs
across the Trinity have been decreasing their releases as inflow
into these projects subside.  Flood control reservoirs are now
releasing water which was held in flood storage during the critical
times of this flood event.

Higher than normal flows with some minor flooding is occurring at
several locations across the Trinity River Basin.  However, major
flooding is still occurring on the lower end of the Trinity at
Liberty (LBYT2).

...Sabine Basin...
...Major Flooding...
Multiple locations on the upper and middle Sabine River basin are
causing different degrees of flood impacts.  Routed water has
caused the Sabine River at Gladewater (GDWT2) to rise to major
flood levels. Downstream, other sites remain elevated, continuing
to rise into minor and moderate flood levels impacting local
roadways and agriculture. Toledo Bend has recently increased their
releases. Minor and moderate flooding downstream continues at
various locations.

...Neches Basin...
...Moderate Flooding...
Recent rainfall in the upper half of the Neches River Basin has
pushed numerous forecast points into minor and moderate flood
levels. These locations are mostly crested and falling at this
time.

Lakes remain full with flood storage being released from Sam
Rayburn Reservoir. Minor flooding is occurring on the lower Neches
due to releases from upstream reservoirs.

...Brazos Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Higher than normal flows continue on the lower Brazos River
due to recent heavy rainfall, but all locations are currently
forecast to stay below flood stage. Flood control reservoirs are
slowly releasing their flood waters keeping the mainstem of the
Brazos below Lake Whitney well above base flow.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Soils remain wet over most of the WGRFC area.  However, a break
from rainfall is expected for the region over the next couple of
days.  The next chance for significant rainfall will be Sunday.


              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org/reservoirs/statewide

MCCANTS


$$





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