Hydrometeorological Discussion
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AGUS74 KFWR 171626
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1126 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

               VALID SEPTEMBER 17 THROUGH SEPTEMBER 22

...WIDESPREAD RAIN EXPECTED THE NEXT FIVE DAYS, WITH SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...

Weak upper air disturbances, combined with an old frontal boundary,
have kept scattered to numerous showers ongoing across most
of the WGRFC area the past two days. Rainfall amounts were mostly on
the light side, mainly averaging less than 0.25 inch.  However,
isolated heavier amounts were noted, particularly over central
and southeast Texas into Louisiana.  No significant hydrologic
issues have been observed at this point.

In general, the upper level pattern is conducive for precipitation in
the forecast through the remainder of the five-day forecast period. In
Texas, the best chances for rain will be over central into southeast
Texas.  No significant flooding is expected at this time, but minor
flooding is possible.  But the main focus for rainfall is now zeroing
in on the remnants of Hurricane Odile which is over the northern Gulf
of California this morning.  Over the next several days, the remnants
of Odile are expected to move over southeast Arizona tonight and over
central New Mexico Thursday into Friday morning.  Abundant moisture
is in place over the area, and widespread rain has already developed
over southern New Mexico which is headed toward central parts of the
state. These remnants will interact with the moisture to allow
significant rainfall to impact the area from today through Friday
morning.  Flash flooding will continue to remain the greatest
concern.  The possibility of some minor and perhaps moderate flooding
during this time frame exists.  Rainfall is also expected well out
ahead of Odile in Texas, especially over central and southeast Texas.
We will continue to monitor the progress of this storm.

The remnants of Odile will pass to the north of the WGRFC area on
Saturday into Sunday morning.  While the heaviest rain is forecast
over Oklahoma, light to moderate rain is expected over a good part of
Texas as moisture is drawn northward from the Gulf of Mexico.  In
Texas the best chances for heavier rain will be near the trough
lingering southwest of Odile over the western and northern parts of
the state.  The rainfall is expected to linger into Sunday and
Monday, depending on the path of Odile`s remnants.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Thursday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 inch or more are forecast for the southern half of New
Mexico into western, central and southeastern Texas. The heaviest
rain, with MAP amounts of 3.00 inches, are forecast over southwest New
Mexico.  MAP amounts in excess of 1.00 inch are forecast for
all of southern New Mexico.  Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast
over most of Texas, most of New Mexico and western Louisiana.

For Thursday into Friday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 inch or more are
forecast for much of New Mexico into western, central and southeastern
Texas and western Louisiana. The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of
2.00 inches, are forecast over southwest New Mexico, central Texas
near Austin, and southeast Texas near Houston.  Lighter amounts of
MAP are forecast over most of Texas, most of New Mexico and
Louisiana.

For Friday into Saturday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for the northeast half of New Mexico into western and
southern Texas and southeastern Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP
amounts of 1.00 inch, are forecast over the Texas panhandle into
southwestern Kansas.  Lighter amounts of MAP are forecast over most of
Texas, most of New Mexico. southern Colorado, and southern Louisiana.

For Saturday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for most of New Mexico, most of Texas, western Louisiana, and
southern Colorado.  The heaviest rain, with MAP amounts of 1.00 inch,
are forecast from the eastern Texas panhandle and the western
parts of north Texas into Oklahoma.  Lighter amounts of MAP are
forecast over the remaining sections of the WGRFC area.

Drought persists but is slowly improving over Texas and New Mexico.
Statewide, New Mexico has no areas of exceptional drought while less
than 2% of Texas remains in exceptional drought. Severe drought
conditions are impacting less than 40% of New Mexico and 36% of Texas.
No doubt the rainfall forecast the next 5 days will alleviate
some of the ongoing drought. Runoff is expected across southeast and
south central Texas, as well as over southern New Mexico for the next
5 days.  Runoff leading to significant mainstem river flooding may
occur on the upper Rio Grande and Pecos Rivers to go along
with flash flooding in New Mexico.  The runoff in south Texas may
lead to minor flooding.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Rio Grande Basin...
...Higher Flow Non-Flood Forecasts...
Due to releases from Luis Leon Reservoir, Presidio (PRST2) will
be pushed up to action stage for the duration of the release.
Releases have been increased as Odile remnants come closer to
the area.  Additional local rainfall will cause further rise
additional to the release from Luis Leon.

...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
Moisture from Odile is starting to impact the western areas
of the WGRFC.  Forecasted rainfall is expected to cause
rises along the Rio Grande and Pecos River.  Additionally,
rainfall along the coast could cause some very localized
flooding, but widespread in southeast Texas is not
expected at this time.  The focus for the time being will
remain out west for the areas south of Elephant Butte to
El Paso for the Rio Grande, and south of Acme along the Pecos.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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