Hydrometeorological Discussion
Issued by NWS West Gulf RFC

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AGUS74 KFWR 271725
HMDFWR
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...WEST GULF RFC...FORT WORTH TX
1124 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

                 VALID DECEMBER 27 THROUGH JANUARY 1

...A STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE WGRFC AREA BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY,
THEN ANOTHER LARGE STORM IS POSSIBLE THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...

                   ...METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system is reforming over the Four Corners
region this morning.  Over the past 48 hours this storm brought a
return of moisture to the mountains of New Mexico and Colorado.  Snow
fell there, with snow water equivalent amounts of over 1.00 inch
noted.  As the low began to move eastward, the precipitation
associated with this storm spread east to cover more of New Mexico and
eventually northern and eastern Texas. Also, moisture returned
northward from the Gulf of Mexico, and showers and a few thunderstorms
developed over eastern Texas and western Louisiana this morning. Parts
of east Texas have already received 0.50 to 1.00 inch of rain, with
more rain expected as a cold front advances eastward across Texas.
Reports of snow have also been received from the western parts of
north Texas into west Texas this morning.

The low pressure trough will move across New Mexico today and tonight
and will cross Texas Sunday before exiting the WGRFC area into
Louisiana Sunday evening.  That will bring an end to the
precipitation.  Basin averaged rainfall should be generally under 1
inch, with the heaviest rain being over southeast Texas and southern
Louisiana where moisture will be the deepest.

Dry weather is forecast across most of the WGRFC area from Sunday
night through Monday as a zonal flow aloft develops.  But by Tuesday
morning a new, larger low pressure system is forecast to develop over
Utah and Nevada.  This low may begin to spread more precipitation
over portions of northern New Mexico and southern Colorado Tuesday.
This low will initially be a slow moving system, thus the heaviest
precipitation into Wednesday morning will be confined to southern
Colorado and over deep south Texas.

By Thursday morning the upper air low pressure system will be
located over Arizona.  Light precipitation should become fairly
widespread over the WGRFC area ahead of this low to begin 2015.

                    ...PRECIPITATION FORECAST...
For Today into Sunday morning, Mean Areal Precipitation (MAP)
amounts of 0.25 of an inch or more are forecast for the southeastern
third of Texas and Louisiana.  The heaviest rainfall, with MAP
amounts of 1.50 inches, are forecast over extreme southeast Texas
and southwest Louisiana. Even heavier amounts of over 3.00 inches
are forecast to the east of the WGRFC area over southern Louisiana.
Lighter MAP amounts are forecast for the rest of eastern and southern
Texas into southeast New Mexico.

For Sunday into Monday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch are
forecast for southeastern Texas and most of Louisiana.  Lighter MAP
amounts are forecast for the southeastern third of Texas, the
remainder of Louisiana, and southwestern Colorado.

For Monday into Tuesday morning, no significant MAP amounts are
forecast for the WGRFC area.  MAP amounts of less than
0.25 inch are forecast for Colorado and extreme northern New Mexico.

For Tuesday into Thursday morning, MAP amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inch
are forecast for deep south Texas.  Lighter MAP amounts are forecast
for most of the WGRFC area of responsibility.

Moderate or worse drought conditions continue to be observed over
parts of New Mexico and Texas.  In Texas, about half the state is
experiencing moderate or worse drought (43%) and 10% has extreme to
exceptional drought conditions. In New Mexico, nearly two thirds of
the state is experiencing moderate or worse drought (65%) and 4% has
extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Outside of southeast Texas,
soils are generally dry enough so that the forecast rainfall will not
generate runoff.  However, the rainfall may be heavy enough to produce
minor runoff over southeast Texas during the next 5 days.

                     ...HYDROLOGIC DISCUSSION...
...Remainder of WGRFC Basins...
The WGRFC river systems are below criteria levels.  No flooding is
expected over the next several days.

              ...SUPPLEMENTARY GRAPHICAL INFORMATION...
The following URLs (all lower case) provide additional graphical
information on current and forecast hydrologic conditions, past and
future precipitation, and drought and climate forecasts.  This
information is provided by a variety of National Weather Service,
NOAA, and private sector entities.

For specific information on river conditions, refer to the AHPS
pages from the local NWS offices at:
http://water.weather.gov/ahps/

The Flood Potential Outlook can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcfop

The West Gulf River Forecast Center is now on Facebook:
http://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.WGRFC.gov

National Precipitation Analysis:
http://water.weather.gov/precip/

The forecast rainfall amounts (QPF) can be viewed on our webpage at:
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/wgrfc/?n=wgrfcqpfpage

The US Drought Assessment:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought

The latest on Reservoir Information for Texas:
http://www.waterdatafortexas.org

STORY

$$




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