Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 261322
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
922 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

WEAK HIGH PRES OVR NE NT2 WTRS IS MOVG E. A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT IS WEAKENING OVR SRN NT2 WTRS. TSTMS ARE SCATTERED FROM HAT
CANYON SOUTHWARD THIS MORNING PER SATELLITE...RADAR...AND
LIGHTNING DATA. SOME OF THESE STORMS ARE HVY WITH LOCALLY VRY
GUSTY WINDS AND VRY ROUGH SEAS IN THEIR VICINITY. TSTM ACTIVITY
IS FCST TO DIMINISH OVR SRN NT2 WTRS BY TNGT...AND THEN INCREASE
LTR SUN THRU MON INTO TUE FROM NW TO SE OVR THE OFF WTRS AS THE
NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE OFF WTRS. OVRALL...NO SIG CHANGES
APPEAR NEEDED FOR THE AM UPDATE. WE WILL BOOST WINDS BY 5 TO 10
PERCENT OR SO OVR GULF STREAM WTRS LTR SUN INTO TUE...AND ALSO
ADJ SEAS SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREV FCST OVR THESE WTRS.
OTW... THE 6Z MDLS ARE IN GUD AGREEMENT WITH THEIR 00Z
COUNTERPARTS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...LATEST SATPIX AND LIGHTNING STRIKE PRODUCTS CONT TO SHOW
CLUSTERS OF TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN NT2 ZONES...AS COLD FNT STALLS
ACROSS THESE WATERS. THE COLD FNT IS EXPCTD TO DRIFT N TODAY AND
TONITE...THEN DSIPT EARLY SUN. A LOW PRES CNTR WILL MOVE E INTO
THE NEW ENG AREA MON AFTN...THEN LIFT NE ALG THE CST OF MAINE MON
NITE INTO TUE. A TROF WILL DVLP NEAR THE MID ATLC CST LATER SUN
AND PERSIST UNTIL EARLY MON WHEN IS SHD BE ABSORBED BY AN APRCHG
COLD FNT. THE SECOND COLD FNT WILL MOVE OFSHR LATE MON INTO MON
NITE...DRIFT E ACROSS THE OFSHR AREAS TUE AND TUE NITE...THEN
STALL OVER THE ERN OFSHR WTRS WED AND WED NITE.

MODELS...00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT...EXCEPT
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFS WITH THE LOW CNTR DURG THE LATE MON INTO
TUE TIMEFRAME...AND SOME MINOR PATTERN DIFFS OVER THE OFSHR WTRS
ON WED AND WED NITE. HOWEVER...THE MDLS ARE IN GUD AGREEMNT
CONCERNING THE COLD FNT WHICH IS THE MAIN WX FTR. OVERALL THE GFS
10M LOOKS FINE THRU THE ENTIRE FCST PRD FOR THE WIND GRIDS...WHILE
THE GFS 30M LOOKS A BIT OVERDONE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE COLD FNT IN THE NT1 WTRS AND AM NOT CONVINCED ATTM THAT THE
COLD FNT WILL BE STG ENUF TO PRODUCE GALES IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW
ON MON AFTN...ESPEC GIVEN WE ARE IN MID SUMMER. AM NOT PLANNING
TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...WILL USE A 50/50 BLEND OF THE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 AND 00Z
ECMWF WAM FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS TO SMOOTH OUT MINOR DIFFS BTWN
THESE MDLS DURG THE FCST PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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