Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 272008
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
308 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

MAIN WX EVENT FOR THIS FORECAST ARE THE LIKELY GALES OVR THE SRN
WATERS THIS EVENING. MODELS TAKE SFC LOW...NOW CLOSE TO THE NC
COAST...QUICKLY EASTWARD TNGT...WHILE QUICKLY PULLING ASSD COLD
FRONT E ACROSS THE WATERS. THE GFS..WITH WK SUPORT FM THE UKMET IS
FCSTNG MARGINAL GALES S OF THE LOW CENTER LATE THIS AFTYN INTO
THIS EVENING. WHILE THE GRADIENT WILLL BE MARGINAL FOR GALES...
THE MODELS TENDS TO UNDERPLAY W/NW FLOW EVENTS AND GALES ARE
ALRADY IN THE HEADLILNES...SO WL CONT GLW FOR THE OUTER OFFSHR
ZONES ONLY. TO THE N...LOW PRES OVR NOVA SCOTIA IS RIPPING NE AT
50 KT...AND MOD NW FLOW OVR THE NRN WATERS WL DMNSH TO LGT EARLY
TNGT.

LARGE SFC HIGH WL BRING LGT WINDS TO THE REGION. AS THE HIGH MOVES
OFF TO THE NE...EXPECT RETURN SW FLOW TO DVLP SAT NGT... THEN
INCRS TO 20 TO 30 KT SUN PER GFS 10M/UKMET/ECMWF. VERY GOOD
AGREEMNET AMNO THE GLOBAL MODELS BEGINS TO ERODE SUN NIGHT INTO
MON. THE GFS BCMS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND IN THE NEXT COLD FRONT
REACHING THE NEW ENGLAND COAST ARND 12Z MON...ABOUT 12 HRS FASTER
THEN THE ECMWF/UKMET. HOWEVER...OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE GFF
AND ECMWF BCMG IN BTTR AGRREMENT ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT AS IT
PLOWS S AND SE. PREFRNTL STHRLIES WILL DMNSH MON...THEN EXPECT MOD
NRY FLOW TO DVLP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT MON NGT. THE UKMET IS
THE OUTLIER...WITH A MUCH WKR HIGH OVR ONT AND THUS ONLY LGT TOP
MOD WINDS N OF THE FRONT. WL STAY WITH GFS/ECMWF 20 TO 30 KT
GRADIENT. SLGT RISK OF GALES OVR THE GULF STREAM IN THE NE
FLOW...BUT TOO EARLY TO HV MUCH CNFDC ATTM. GFS/WCMWF AGREE ON
PUSHNIG FRONT INOT THE SRN WATERS...WITH WINDS DMNSHNG TO LGT N OF
THE FRONT.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH HAS BN SLGTLY UNEVEN IN THE NW
FLOW...WITH MOST SEAS WITH A 1 OR 2 OF THE MODEL. IN THE GULF OF
MAINE THIS MRNG...SEAS WERE UP TO 5 FT HIGHER. AS WINDS DMNSH...
THESE SEAS ARE BCMG CLOSER TO MODEL GDNC. THE ECMWF WAM IS RUNNING
LATE...BUT COMPARED TO THE 00Z...IT LOOKS A LITTLE TOO HIGH AT
TIMES. WL STAY WITH THE WAVEWATCH FOR GDNC...EXCEPT USE A 50/50
WW/WAM BLEND FM 30/06Z ON.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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