Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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709
AGNT40 KWNM 291856
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
256 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE MOST SIG WEATHER FEATURE WL CONT TO BE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE. IN RGRDS TO THE FCST TRACK OF THIS
T.D....IN GNRL THE NEW 12Z MDLS AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WL TRACK
EVER SO SLOWLY NE FM ITS CURRENT POSITION NR THE S AND N CAROLINA
COASTS TONITE INTO TUE NITE...REACHING A POINT NR CP HATTERAS WED
MORNING. THE 12Z GFS (AND TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE THE 12Z
ECMWF) REMAINS CONSISTENT VS ITS PREV RESPECTIVE RUNS IN FCSTG A
SLOWER MOTION THAN FCST BY THE 12Z GEM/UKMET. OVERALL WULD FAVOR
THE 12Z GFS TRACK SINCE IS SPRTD BY THE 12Z GEFS MEAN AND QUITE
CLOSE TO THE LATEST NHC FCST TRACK. THEREFORE DO NOT ANTICIPATE
NHC MAKING ANY MAJOR SHORT TERM CHNGS TO THEIR PREV FCST TRACK FOR
BONNIE. OTHERWISE OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE 12Z MDLS SHARE SMLR
TIMING FOR A WEAK COLD FRONT TO APRCH FM THE NW MON...THEN PUSH
OFSHR INTO THE NT1 WTRS LATE MON NITE INTO TUE WHL WKNG. THEN TUE
NITE THE MDLS AGAIN SHARE SMLR TIMING FOR ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
TO PUSH S ACRS THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 WTRS. WITH THE 12Z GFS SOLUTION
LOOKING REPRESENTATIVE...PLAN ON POPULATING OUR FCST WIND GRIDS
WITH A 50/50 BLEND OF ITS 30M AND 10M BL WINDS FOR TONITE THRU TUE
NITE...WITH ADDITIONAL EDITS IN THE VCNTY OF BONNIE TO ADHERE TO
THE NHC ADVSRY.

IN THE LONG RANGE...IN GNRL THE 12Z GLOBAL MDLS FCST THE
POST-TROPICAL/REMNANT LOW OF BONNIE TO CONT TO EVER SO SLOWLY
TRACK NE ACRS THE CNTRL/NERN NT2 WTRS WED THRU FRI NITE ALONG THE
THEN STNRY FRONT. AS A COMPROMISE WULD FAVOR THE FCST TIMING OF
THE 12Z GFS WHICH LOOKS LK A RSNBL COMPROMISE BTWN THE FASTER 12Z
UKMET AND SLOWER 12Z ECMWF AND IS IN LINE WITH THE LATEST NHC FCST
TRACK. SO IN ANTICIPATION OF NHC MAINTAINING WINDS UP TO 25 KT
NEAR BONNIE...PLAN ON POPULATING WITH THE SLIGHTLY STRONGER 12Z
GFS 30M BL WINDS FOR WED THRU FRI NITE.

SEAS...THE 12Z WAVEWATCH III AND 12Z ECWMF WAM MDLS HV BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL (GNRLY WITHIN 1 FT OF THE LATEST SFC OBS). BUT
SINCE OVERALL THE 12Z GFS WL BE THE FAVORED SOLUTION...PLAN ON
POPULATING OUR FCST WAVE GRIDS WITH ITS ASCD 12Z WAVEWATCH III
SEAS THRU FRI NITE...WITH SM ADDITIONAL EDITS LKLY IN THE VCNTY OF
BONNIE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



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