Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 190014
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
714 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

SUMMARY...DEEP LOW PRES CNTRD NEAR PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND WILL MOVE
OFF TO THE NE TONIGHT AND FRI. A HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL MOVE E
TOWARD THE AREA FRI AND FRI NITE...BUILD OFSHR SAT AND SAT NIGHT...
THEN PASS NE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS SUN THRU MON NITE. DVLPG LOW PRES
WILL MOVE OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST SUN NITE...DRIFT N OVER
THE MID ATLC WTRS NEAR THE COAST MON AND MON NITE...APRCH LONG
ISLAND TUE WHILE WEAKENING...THEN MOVE INLAND OVER NEW ENGLAND AND
DISSIPATE TUE NITE. THE LOW WILL PULL A WARM FNT N ACROSS THE NT2
WTRS SUN NITE THRU TUE. A STG COLD FNT WILL MOVE E AND APRCH THE
SE COAST LATE TUE NITE.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS THE
OFSHR WTRS TONITE INTO EARLY MON...SO THE GFS WILL BE USED TO
POPULATE THE WIND GRIDS FOR THIS TIMEFRAME. THE MED RNG MDLS ARE
SPLIT INTO TWO CAMPS CONCERNING WHAT TO DO WITH THE TRAJECTORY OF
THE DVLPG COASTAL LOW DURING THE LATER MON THRU TUE NITE
PRD...WITH THE GEM/GFS TAKING IT OFF TO THE NE AND E OF THE NT2
AREA BY LATE TUE...BUT THE ECMWF/NOGAPS/UKMET TRACKING IT N AND
KEEPING THE LOW JUST OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. SINCE THE ECMWF HAS
GUD SUPPORT FROM BOTH THE UKMET AND THE LATEST WPC MED RNG FCSTR
GUIDANCE...IT WILL BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS DURING THE LATER MON
THRU TUE NITE PRD.

SEAS...MULTIGRID WW3 MDL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN 1 TO 2 FT UNDERDONE
INITIALLY OVER THE NT1 AND NRN NT2 OFSHR WTRS. AFTER INITIAL
ADJUSTMENTS THE MWW3 LOOKS FINE THRU THROUGH EARLY MON. GIVEN THE
PREFERENCE FOR ECMWF STARTING LATER MON...WILL USE ECMWF WAM FOR
LATER MON THRU TUE NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...DURING THE LAST FEW MDL RUNS
ETSS HAS HAD A BETTER HANDLE THAN ESTOFS WITH A NEG SURGE THAT IS
CURRENTLY ABOUT 0.5 FT. WATER LVL ANOMALIES SUGGEST THAT THE ESTOFS
NEG SURGE IN THE 1 TO 1.5 FT RANGE IS OVERDONE COMPARED TO ETSS
WHICH HAS BEEN VERIFYING BETTER.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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