Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGNT40 KWNM 041307
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
907 AM EDT WED MAY 4 2016

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

THE 06Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
NRN NT2 WATERS...WITH SATELLITE/KIGHTNING DATA INDICATING SCT TO
NUMEROUS TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL/SRN NT2 WATERS. THE 06Z
GFS WAS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS 00Z GFS...AS WELL AS THE 00Z
UKMET/ECMWF/GEM THROUGH ABOUT 12Z FRI. THE MAIN FCST CONCERN
CONTINUES TO BE THU INTO THU NIGHT OVER THE NE NT2 ZONES AS STRONG
LOW MOVES RAPIDLY NE ACROSS THE NRN NT2 AND NT1 WATERS. THE GFS
AND UKMET ARE VERY CLOSE THROUGH 12Z FRI...AND WILL USE THE GFS
10M WINDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE GFS DOES BRING WINDS UP TO
STORM FORCE THU NIGHT...HOWEVER GIVEN THE UKMET/ECMWF WINDS ARE
NOT AS STRONG WILL CAP WINDS AT 45 KT FOR NOW...THOUGH POTENTIAL
IS THERE TO BE CLOSE TO STORM...ESPECIALLY VCNTY OF GULF STREAM
OVER ANZ910. THEN FROM 12Z FRI AND BEYOND...THE ECMWF/UKMET SEEM
TO BE IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW FCST TO MOVE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRI NIGHT AND SAT. WILL CONTINUE TO GO
WITH ECMWF DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 09Z SEA STATE ANALYSIS
INDICATED THAT OBSERVED SEAS WERE WITHIN A FT OF THE MWW3 FCST
VALUES.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...00Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STATIONARY FRONT EXTNDG
NE TO SW ACROSS THE NRN NT2 WTRS AND INTO THE MID ATLC
COAST...WITH SEVERAL LOW PRES CENTERS ANALYZED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. A HI PRES RIDGE IS INDICATED OVER THE OUTER ZONES OF
THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS. ASCAT DATA IS STILL NOT AVAILABLE
DUE TO COMMS PROBLEMS...BUT LATEST AVAIL RAPIDSCAT PASSES FROM
EARLIER TONITE SHOW A BROAD AREA OF 20 TO 30 KT WINDS IN S TO SW
FLOW OVER THE NT2 WTRS S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...WITH WINDS TO
25 KT IN NE FLOW IN ZONES 810 AND 815 S OF NEW ENGLAND. LIGHTNING
DENSITY PRODUCT DATA AT 0700Z SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
OVER MAINLY THE INNER ZONES OF THE CENTRAL AND SRN NT2 WTRS.

MAIN WEATHER FEATURES...THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PERSIST OVER THE
NRN NT2 WTRS TODAY...AS A SERIES OF WEAK LOWS MOVE NE ALONG THE
FRONT. A STRONGER LOW WILL PASS NE OVER THE NT2 WTRS TODAY INTO
THU...WHILE PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE NT2
AREA...AND THE LOW WILL MOVE NE OVER THE NT1 WTRS LATE THU.
ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM NEAR THE MID ATLC COAST LATER THU...THEN
DRIFT NE OVER THE NT2 AREA THU NITE INTO SAT WHILE WEAKENING.
ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SE AND APPROACH THE COAST SAT
NITE...THEN MOVE E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS SUN AND SUN NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS THRU THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT 00Z GFS HAS DIFFERENT
TIMING THAN THE OTHER MDLS. AM PLANNING TO USE THE 00Z ECMWF FOR
THE WIND GRIDS OVER THE ENTIRE FCST PRD SINCE IT APPEARS TO BE
THE BEST MEDIAN MDL SOLN...WITH THE CAVEAT THAT WILL BOOST THE
ECMWF WINDS FOR TODAY AND TONITE THEN AGAIN SUN AND SUN NITE TO
MAKE IT COME MORE IN LINE WITH MOST OF THE OTHER MED RNG MDLS.

SEAS...THE 00Z WNA WAVEWATCH III MDL AND 00Z ECMWF WAM BOTH
INITIALIZED REASONABLY WELL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. IN ORDER TO STAY
CONSISTENT WITH THE WIND GRIDS...WILL USE THE ECMWF WAM FOR
TODAY THRU SAT NITE...THEN GO WITH THE MORE ROBUST WNA WAVEWATCH
III MDL FOR SUN AND SUN NITE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE THU INTO THU NIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE THU.

$$

.FORECASTER KOSIER/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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