Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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AGNT40 KWNM 080004
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
804 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

UPDATE...LATEST ASCAT PASSES INDICATE LIGHT WINDS OVER THE
CSTL/OFSHR WTRS. 18Z NCEP SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A STNRY FNT EXTNDG SE
TO NW ACROSS THE NE PART OF THE NT2 AREA AND INTO THE SRN NT1 WTRS
TOWARDS CAPE COD...WITH A WEAK TROF EXTNDG NE TO SW OVER MOST OF
THE NT2 WTRS. A RELATIVELY WEAK SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
THRU THE FCST PRD...AND WINDS ARE NOT EXPCTD TO EXCEED 25 KT THRU
SUN NITE IN THE OFSHR WTRS.

MODELS...THE MED RNG MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT THRU THE
FCST PRD. THE GFS HAS SHOWN GUD RUN TO RUN CONTINUITY OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THE REPRESENTATIVE GFS 30M SOLN WILL BE USED
FOR TONITE INTO THU...THEN SWITCHING TO THE GFS 10M SOLN FOR LATE
THU THRU SUN NITE. AM NOT PLANNING TO MAKE ANY SIGNIF CHANGES TO
THE CURRENT FCST TREND.

SEAS...WNA VERSION OF WAVEWATCH III MDL AND ECMWF WAM BOTH
INITIALIZED WELL IN THE OFSHR WTRS. THE MDLS ARE IN VRY GUD
AGREEMNT FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE FCST PRD...SO WILL BE USING THE WNA
WW3 MDL FOR THE SEA HT GRIDS.

-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMER MARITIME CONDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN ATLC OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND NO SIG FERATURES. FCST
GUIDANCE HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS...SO EXPECT
NEW FCST LIKLEY TO BE SMLR TO THE CURRENT ONE.

NEW MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGRMNT ON THE FCST FTRS.
HIGH PRES CENTERED NEAR BERMUDA WILL REMAIN STNRY THRU WED...THEN
DRIFT W. NEXT FTR TO AFFECT THE WATERS IS COLD FRONT FCST TO MOVR
OFF THE NERW ENGLAND COAST WED AFTN INTO THU NGT.

ALTHOUGH WINDS OFF THE COAST HV JUST BEGUN TO INCRS...EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT WINDS ARE CLOSER TO THE HIGHER GFS 30M WINDS
VS THE 10M WINDS. WL USE A BLEND OF THE 10 AND 30M WINDS THRU WED
NIGHT...THEN POPULATE USING THE GFS 10M WINDS. THE UKMET/ECMWF
WINDS SUPPORT THIS. MODELS ARE IN VRY GOOD AGRMNT ON THE TIMING OF
THE FRONT MVG SE OVR THE NRN WATERS WED NGT AND THU...THEN GRADU
SRIFT S THU NGT AND FRI. ALHTOUGH THE DETAILS DIFFER SLGTLY WITH
THE MODELS...THEY ALL AGREE ON TWO WK LOWS FCST TO SLIDE E ALONG
THIS BNDRY DURNG THIS TIME. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SUPPORT W TO SW
WINDS REACHING 25 KT AT TIMES.

BY 12Z SUN...MODELS AGREE ON TAKING WEAK FRONT S OF CAPE FEAR...
WITH WEAK HIGH PRES RDGNG E OFF THE ATLC COAST AND WEAK LOW PRES
SLIDING E JUST N OF THE GF OF MAINE. FORNT WILL RNMN NEARY STNRY
SUN AND NGT. TO THE N...EXCPET WINDS TO BACK TO S TO SW AS NEXT
FRNT APPCHS.

.SEAS...THE MULTIGRID WAVEWATCH III MODEL INITLZD WELL...AS DID
THE ECMWF WAM. WAVEWATCH GDNC LOOKS GOOD AND PLAN TO STAY CLOSE
TO THE WAVE MODEL. THE ECMWF WAM GDNC IS DELAYED.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
     NONE.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER SCOVIL/PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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