Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

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000
AGNT40 KWNM 271317
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
817 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

STRONG LOW PRES NR 40.5N 69W HAS SOLID STORM FORCE ASCD WINDS TO
ITS N...WHL AN EARLIER A 0903Z RAPID SCAT PASS SHOWING SM HURCN
FORCE WINDS E OF THE NT1 WTRS JUST S OF NOVA SCOTIA. HIGHEST ASCD
SEAS ARE IN THE LOW 30S (AT 11Z BUOY 44005 HAD 30 FT) WHICH ARE SM
6-8 FT HIGHER THAN FCST BY THE 06Z WAVEWATCH III BUT ARE BEING
HANDLED MUCH BETTER BY THE 00Z ECMWF WAM.

OVER THE SHORT TERM...THE DIFFS BTWN THE LATEST MDLS ARE
NEGLIGIBLE IN FCSTG THE STRONG LOW TO DRIFT NE ACRS THE NT1 WTRS
THRU THIS AFTERNOON WHL BEGINNING TO GRADLY WEAKEN AS IT BCM
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH ITS ASCD UPR LOW. THEN TONITE ALL OF THE
MDLS FCST THE LOW TO ACCELERATE NE AWAY FM THE WTRS WHL WKNG
FURTHER (INCLUDING THE 00Z ECMWF WHICH HAD PREVLY BEEN CONSIDERED
A SLOW OUTLIER). THEREFORE IT WL JUST BE A MATTER OF HOW FAST TO
FCST CONDS TO DMNSH THRUT THE SHORT TERM. WITH THE 06Z GFS BEING
CONSISTENT VS ITS PREV 00Z RUN SEE NO REASON TO REPOPULATE THE
PREVLY USED 00Z GFS 30M BL WINDS. PER THE LATEST OBS THO WL BE
BOOSTING UP THE PREVLY FCSTD SEAS THRU THE SHORT TERM.

IN THE LONG RANGE...IN GNRL THE LATEST GLOBAL MDLS ARE IN GOOD
AGRMT THAT THE MOST SIG WX FEATURE WL BE A DVLPG LOW PASSING ACRS
THE NT1 WTRS FRI/FRI NITE...THEN INTENSIFYG E THEN NE OF THE WTRS
SAT/SAT NITE WHL PULLING A STRONG COLD FRONT OFSHR. THE PREV FCST
PACKAGE USED THE 00Z ECMWF FOR THIS SYSTEM. PER THE 00Z ECENS MEAN
AM CONCERNED THAT LIKE THE CURRENT STORM THAT THE 00Z ECMWF IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE ENUF WITH THIS SYSTEM. WOULD ACTUALLY CONSIDER
REPOPULATING WITH THE MR PROGRESSIVE 00Z OR 06Z GFS
SOLUTIONS...BUT SINCE THE PREV FCST BOOSTED UP THE 00Z ECMWF WINDS
PRHPS BY CHANCE THE FCST WINDS IN THE NNWLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE
OF THE LOW ARE SMLR BTWN THE MDLS. THEREFORE FOR NOW WL CONT WITH
THE PREV LONG RANGE FCST WINDS WITH JUST SM MINOR EDITS IN
DEFERENCE TO THE 06Z/00Z GFS.


-----------------------------------------------------------------
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

SUMMARY...DVLPG LOW PRES CNTRD NEAR 38N 72W WILL PASS NE ACROSS
THE NRN NT2 WTRS EARLY TODAY...WHILE INTENSIFYING AND PULLING A
COLD FRONT E ACROSS THE NT2 AREA. THIS STG LOW WILL DRIFT NE
ACROSS THE NT1 AREA LATER TODAY AND TONITE...THEN MOVE OFF TO NE
WED INTO WED NITE...WHILE PULLING A SERIES OF TROFS SE ACROSS THE
NRN NT1 WTRS. A HI PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE COAST WED
NITE...THEN PASS E ACROSS THE OFSHR WTRS THU INTO THU NIGHT WHILE
WKNG. ANOTHER DVLPG LOW WILL PASS E ACROSS THE NT1 AREA FRI INTO
FRI NITE...THEN MOVE OFF TO THE NE SAT AND SAT NITE AS A STG LOW.
THE LOW WILL PULL ANOTHER COLD FRONT E AND SE OVER THE OFSHR WTRS
LATE THU NITE INTO FRI NITE. ANOTHER RIDGE WILL BUILD OFSHR SAT
AND SAT NITE.

MODELS...THE 00Z MED RNG MDLS ARE IN GUD OVERALL AGREEMNT ACROSS
THE OFSHR WTRS DURING THE FCST PRD...EXCEPT THE 00Z ECWMF IS A
BIT SLOWER WITH THE FIRST DVLPG LOW FOR THE TONITE THRU WED NITE
TIMEFRAME...AND THE 00Z GFS IS SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE SECOND
DVLPG LOW DURING THE FRI THRU SAT NITE PRD. THE GFS HAS SHOWN VRY
GUD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...AND 00Z GFS 30M LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE
ENUF TO BE USED FOR THE WIND GRIDS THRU FRI. WILL USE THE 00Z
ECMWF WITH BOOSTED WINDS FOR FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE.

.SEAS...THE HIGHER 00Z ECMWF WAM INITIALIZED BETTER THAN THE MORE
CONSERVATIVE 00Z MULTIGRID WW3 MDL OVER THE OFSHR WTRS. THE ECMWF
WAM IS ALSO SIGNIF HIGHER THAN THE MWW3 OVER THE NRN NT2 AND GLF
OF MAINE WTRS FOR TODAY AND TONITE...THEN AGAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE
OFSHR ZONES FOR THE FRI NITE THRU SAT NITE PRD. WILL USE A 50/50
BLEND OF THE TWO MDLS TO POPULATE THE SEA HT GRIDS THRU THE FCST
PRD.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...FOR TONITE INTO TUE IN THE
STG E NE PRES GRDNT FCST N OF A DVLPG STORM...BOTH THE ESTOFS AND
ETSS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FCSTG VRY SIGNIF POS SURGE VALUES IN THE
3.5 TO 4.5 FT RNG TO DVLP ALONG THE COAST FM NEW JERSEY INTO THE
SW GULF OF MAINE.WOULD FAVOR THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ESTOFS VS THE
ETSS FOR THIS SURGE EVENT.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE WED.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI.
     GALE POSSIBLE SAT INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     STORM TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     GALE TODAY.
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI INTO SAT NIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER VUKITS/SCOVIL. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.


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