Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
000
AGNT40 KWNM 010716
MIMATN

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N ATLANTIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
316 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2014

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN W OF 50W FROM 30N TO 50N.

IN THE SHORT TERM...MODELS RAMAIN IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
DVLPNG STORM CONDS OVER THE WEEKEND. MODELS AGREE ON LOW PRES NOW
E OF THE VA CAPES MVNG SLOWLY NE TO NR GEORGES BANK BY LATER
TODAY...THEN WKNG TNGT AS STRNGR LOW IS FCST TO DVLP JUST E OF
CAPE HTTRS THIS AFTN AS UPR LOW SWINGS SE OFF THE COAST. ASCAT
PASS FM 03Z SHOWED ALL MODELS MISSED THE SML AREA OF HIGHER WINDS
JUST NW OF THIS LOW CENTER BY 10 TO 15 KT. AS THE LOW TRACKS
NE...AGREE WITH GFS FCST OF INCRSNG NE WINDS TO GALE FRC N OF BALT
CNYN THIS MRNG WITH SOLID N TO NE WINDS OF 30 TO 40 KT ON BACK
SIDE OF OCCLD FRNT OFF THE COAST N OF HTTRS CNYN THIS AFTN AND
ALSO WRAP ARND STRNG GALES DVLP S OF THE LOW CNTR. THE UKMET AND
GEM SUPPORT THE GFS...AS DOES THE ECMWF BUT WITH LGTR WINDS.

YDAYS 12Z AND 18Z GFS SHOWED MRGNL HRCN FRC WINDS DVLPNG ALONG A
NRRW STRIP ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE OCCLD FRNT OFF THE NC COAST
TNGT. TNGTS 00Z RUN HAS BACKED OFF A BIT ON THE WINDS...WHICH
AGREE BTTR WITH THE UKMET/GEM/NAM. THE 0.25 DEG PARALLEL GFS DOES
BRIEFLY INCRS WINDS TO 65 KT ABOUT 100 NM SE OF CAPE HTTRS ARND
06Z. CNSRDNG 925 MB WINDS ARE ABOUT THE SAME...THESE MAY BE TOO
HIGH. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WUD BE OBLIQUE TO THE GULF STREAM...
SO 65 KT IS PLAUSABLE HERE. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP WINDS AT STORM FRC
BUT CUD SEE AREA BRFLY GO TO HURCN FRC TNGT.

BY 12Z SUN...MODELS AGREE ON LOW PRES CONSOLODATING JUST S OF
GEORGES BANK. FM 12Z SUN THRU EARLY MON...THE GFS TRACK THE LOW
JUST NW OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...GRADIENT WINDS STILL
AREA CLOSE TO UKMET/GEM AND WL STILL FCST MRGNL STORM FRC WINDS
OVR MOST ZONES OR SUN...SO CHNG FM CURRENT FCST IS MNML. NEW UKMET
10M WINDS WELL SUPPORT THE HIGHER GFS 30M WINDS.

FOLLOWING THE WEEKEND...WINDS WILL GRADU DMNSH SUN NGT THRU MON
LOW AS LOW MVS OFF TO THE NE AND LRG HIGH PUSHES OFF THE SE COAST.
MODELS AGREE ON HIGH STRETCHING E ACROSS THE SRN WATERS TUE INTO
WED AS WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES OFF THE COAST N OF THE MID ATLC
COAST. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE IN DECONT AGREEMENT ON FRONT BCMG
HUNG UP NR 40N BY 12Z WITH UPSTREAM LOW IN THE NW GRT LAKES.


.SEAS...LIKE THE WINDS...THE SEAS ARE HIGHER THEN MODEL GUESS N
AND W OF THE LOW CENTER...ON THE AVG OF 1 TO 2 FT. THROUGH...NOTED
THAT BUOY 44066 WAS REPORTING SEAS OF 10 FT AT 06Z VS WAVE WATCH FCST
OF ONLY 6 FT. WL ADJUST THESE SEAS UPWARD FOR INIT CONDS AND TDY
INTO TNGT. ELSEWHERE...THE WAVE MODEL INITLD OKAY. BE BOOSTED SEAS
UP 1 TO 3 FT...OR APPROX 10 PCT IN THE STRNGR N TO NE FLOW OVER
THE WEEKEND.


.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...IN THE WAKE OF THE STRONG
SECOND SFC LOW SAT/SAT NITE...THE ETSS FCST A SURGE OF A TO 2 FT
BY TNGT FM SRN NEW ENGLAND S THRU THE MID ATLC COAST..AND JUST OVR
2 FT BY 06Z TNGT BEFORE GRADU DMNSHNG. THE ESTOFS IS SMLR EXCEPT
COVERS A SLGTLY BROADER AREA ABD ALSO CAPTRES THE POS SURGE ALONG
THE MASS COAST.


.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.NT1 NEW ENGLAND WATERS...
.ANZ800...GULF OF MAINE...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ805...GEORGES BANK WEST OF 68W...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ900...GEORGES BANK EAST OF 68W...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ810...SOUTH OF NEW ENGLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.ANZ815...SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.

.NT2 MID ATLC WATERS...
.ANZ820...HUDSON CANYON TO BALTIMORE CANYON...
     GALE EARLY TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.ANZ915...HUDSON CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.ANZ920...BALTIMORE CANYON TO THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
     GALE POSSIBLE SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
.ANZ905...THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL TO THE HAGUE LINE...
     GALE EARLY TODAY.
     GALE TONIGHT.
     STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.
     GALE SUN INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ910...EAST OF THE GREAT SOUTH CHANNEL AND SOUTH OF 39N...
     STORM TONIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ825...INNER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ828...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE CHARLES LIGHT TO CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ925...OUTER WATERS FROM BALTIMORE CANYON TO HATTERAS CANYON...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ830...INNER WATERS FROM CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT TO CAPE HATTERAS...
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN.
.ANZ833...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE HATTERAS TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.
.ANZ930...OUTER WATERS FROM HATTERAS CANYON TO CAPE FEAR...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SUN NIGHT.
.ANZ835...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.
.ANZ935...OUTER WATERS FROM CAPE FEAR TO 31N...
     GALE TODAY.
     STORM TONIGHT.

$$

.FORECASTER PROSISE. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.