Marine Interpretation Message
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000
AGPN40 KWNM 232019
MIMPAC

Marine Weather Discussion for N Pacific Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
119 PM PDT Wed Aug 23 2017

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant
.weather for the North Pacific N of 30N and E of 150W.

The 18z surface analysis indicated a weak cold front across the
Washington and Oregon offshore waters with a weak trough along
the California coast. An ascat pass from 1746z indicated the
strongest winds, around 20 KT over the northern and central
California waters.

The 12z models remain in good agrement through most of the
forecast period, with some differences showing up by eary next
week. During the short term period, the cold front will move
slowly southeast tonight through Thursday across the northern
and central California waters before dissipating over the
central California waters Thursday night. Winds with this front
will remain well below gale. Meanwhile, the trough will
strengthen along the northern California coast Thursday into
Saturday. This will result in mainly diurnal gales confined to
the far southern Oregon and northern California coastal waters
Friday night. Over the offshore waters the winds will remain
below gale. The trough will then weaken again Sunday through
Monday night with no gales expected. Then looking ahead to Sunday
night through Monday night, all of the models indicate a low
pressure moving into the Gulf of Alaska, while ridge remains in
place over and west of the offshore waters. The GFS and UKMET are
in decent agreement with the intensity of the low, while the
ECMWF and CMC are quite a bit stronger. Regardless of which model
is more accurate, the impact on the offshore and coastal waters
will be minimal. Plan on using the GFS 10m winds to populate wind
grids through the period. Prefer the GFS/UKMET for the day 5
period at this time as it is slower to break ridge down.

.SEAS...The 18z sea state analysis indicated that observed seas
continue to be within a foot of the WaveWatch III forecast
values. Will use the WaveWatch III to populate wave grids through
the period as differences between ECMWF WAM are minimal.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.PZ5 Washington/Oregon Waters...
     None.

.PZ6 California Waters...
     None.

$$

.Forecaster Kosier. Ocean Prediction Center.



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