Marine Interpretation Message
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
AGPN40 KWNM 280813
MIMPAC

MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR N PACIFIC OCEAN
NWS OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER WASHINGTON DC
113 AM PDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.FORECAST DISCUSSION: MAJOR FEATURES/WINDS/SEAS/SIGNIFICANT
.WEATHER FOR THE NORTH PACIFIC N OF 30N AND E OF 150W.

THE MAIN CONCERN OVR THE OFFSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WILL BE IN THE SHORT TERM AS DVLPG LOW PRES TRACKS NE OVER NOCAL
AND ERN PZ5 WTRS TONITE THRU SAT...LKLY PRODUCING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD GALES NR ITS TRACK.

SHORT TERM...THE LATEST WTR VPR SATELLITE IMGRY INDICATES A
FAIRLY STRONG H5 VORT MAX NEARING THE BASE OF THE UPR LVL TROF
LOCATED ALONG 140W OR SO EARLY THIS MORNING. AS THIS PIECE OF
ENERGY TURNS NE A SFC LOW PRES AREA IS EXPECTED TO FORM W OF THE
CENTRAL CAL OFF WTRS BY MID TO LATE MORNING...AND CONT TO LIFT NE
AND INTENSIFY AS IT REACHES THE WRN NOCAL OFF WTRS BY LTR
TODAY...THE OREG OFF WTRS TONITE...AND THE COASTAL WASH OFF WTRS
EARLY SAT. THE LOW WILL THEN LKLY WEAKEN OR COMBINE WITH LOW PRES
OVR SW CANADA BY SAT AFTN AND EVE. MOST OF THE 00Z MDL GUID NOW
INDICATES GALE FORCE WINDS DVLPG NR THE LOW AS IT MOVES NE OVR
SRN PZ5 WTRS TONITE INTO SAT. FOR THE EARLY AM FCST PACKAGE WE
WILL USE A 50-50 BLEND OF THE 00Z GFS AND 00Z ECMWF. BOTH MDLS ARE
QUITE SIMILAR IN BRING THE DVLPG LOW NE OVR THE WTRS AS NOTED ABV
WITH THE ECMWF INDICATING MAX WINDS NR 40 KT AND THE GFS NR 45 KT
OVR OFF ZONE PZZ815 BY 12Z SAT. FOR NOW...WE WILL CAP WINDS AT 40
KT AND CONT TO MONITOR FUTURE MDL GUID TO SEE IF WINDS NEED TO BE
RAISED ABV 40 KT. FOR THE AM PACKAGE WE WILL EXPAND THE GALES
INTO THE OUTER SRN OREG ZONE...PZZ915...AND REMOVE INNER ZONE
PZZ805 AS IT APPEARS AS IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW WILL KEEP THE GALE
FORCE WINDS OVR THE COASTAL WTRS OF NRN OREG AND PSBLY WASH ON
SAT. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SCTD TSTMS ARE LKLY NR THE LOW AS IT
MOVES NE OVR THE AREA TODAY INTO SAT. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND
ROUGH SEAS CAN BE FOUND IN OR NEAR ANY TSTMS OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS...MAINLY FROM NRN CALIF NORTHWARD.

LONG TERM...SEVERAL COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH E INTO PZ5 AND PSBLY
NOCAL OFF WTRS SAT NITE THRU TUE...WITH LOW PRES STALLING N OF THE
PZ5 WTRS TUE NITE. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED
BY A COASTAL LOW PRES TROF AND HIGH PRES W OF THE CALIF OFF WTRS
SAT NITE INTO TUE NITE. THERE IS SOME CHANCE FOR GALES DVLPG OVR
NW WASH WTRS WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT LTR SUN OR SUN NITE
AND PSBLY WITH ANOTHER FRONT LTR MON. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO ADD
GALES TO THE FCST AT THIS TIME.

.SEAS...BOTH THE ENP WW3 AND ECMWF WAM HAVE INITIALIZED FAIRLY
WELL OVR THE OFF WTRS PER THE LATEST OBS AND ALTIMETER DATA. AS
WE WILL FOLLOW A 50-50 BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF FOR WINDS AS
NOTED ABV...WE WILL ALSO FOLLOW A 50-50 BLEND OF THE ENP WW3 AND
ECMWF WAM FOR THE EARLY AM PACKAGE.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...N/A.

.WARNINGS...PRELIMINARY.

.PZ5 WASHINGTON/OREGON WATERS...
.PZZ810...INNER WATERS FROM CAPE LOOKOUT TO FLORENCE OR...
     GALE SAT.
.PZZ815...INNER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT INTO SAT.
.PZZ915...OUTER WATERS FROM FLORENCE OR TO POINT ST. GEORGE...
     GALE TONIGHT.

.PZ6 CALIFORNIA WATERS...
     NONE.

$$

.FORECASTER MILLS. OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER.



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.