Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS48 KWNS 290832
SWOD48
SPC AC 290831

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0331 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SUBSTANTIAL MID-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF TO
OVERSPREAD THE MID-MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MONDAY.
BOTH MODELS SUGGEST A SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD EJECT
ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES EARLY WITH MINOR RIDGING IN ITS WAKE
ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY DURING PEAK HEATING.  WHILE MODEST BUOYANCY
WILL LIKELY RESIDE ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND
ACROSS NWRN IL/NRN MO INTO KS...LACK OF MEANINGFUL LARGE SCALE
ASCENT MAY LIMIT SEVERE COVERAGE ACROSS THIS REGION.  TIMING OF
AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES MAY BE TOO
EARLY FOR SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP PRIOR TO GREATEST UVV
SPREADING INTO ONTARIO.  WHILE ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
DEVELOP FROM PORTIONS OF WI/MI SWWD INTO KS...ACTIVITY DOES NOT
APPEAR TO WARRANT 30 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS AT THIS TIME.

..DARROW.. 08/29/2014



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