Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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ACUS48 KWNS 290844
SWOD48
SPC AC 290843

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0343 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ERN STATES AND AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE ARKLATEX AND WRN GULF COAST. IN ADDITION...THE HURRICANE CENTER
HAS TROPICAL STORM ERIKA OFFSHORE FROM THE WRN FL PENINSULA COAST ON
TUESDAY/DAY 4. A FEW ROTATING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE EAST OF
THE CENTER ACROSS NRN AND CNTRL FL ON TUESDAY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RAINBANDS OF ERIKA. THE TROPICAL STORM IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
IN THE ERN FL PANHANDLE ON WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 AND A FEW ROTATING STORMS
WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN GULF COAST ON WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...FROM WEDNESDAY/DAY 5 TO FRIDAY/DAY 7...THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS MAINTAIN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NCNTRL U.S. AND
KEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS EACH
AFTERNOON FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WHERE A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE THREAT DURING THE DAY 4 TO 8
PERIOD WOULD APPEAR TO BE WITH TROPICAL STORM ERIKA IN THE ERN GULF
COAST REGION ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
CONCERNING THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF ERIKA...WILL NOT ADD A 15
PERCENT CONTOUR AT THIS TIME.

..BROYLES.. 08/29/2015



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