Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
000
ACUS48 KWNS 070851
SWOD48
SPC AC 070850

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0350 AM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

VALID 101200Z - 151200Z

...DISCUSSION...
THE LATEST MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT A FAIRLY
PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER WILL REDEVELOP WEST NORTHWESTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHERN
ROCKIES REGION LATE THIS WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND.  AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO BUILD ALONG AN AXIS NORTH OF THE HIGH CENTER
THROUGH THE PLAINS INTO PORTIONS OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...FLANKED
BY TROUGHING NEAR THE PACIFIC COAST AND ACROSS THE EAST.  THIS
REGIME MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE TO STRONG
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY...ASSOCIATED WITH STEEPENING
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE RETURN OF SEASONABLY MOIST BOUNDARY
LAYER CONDITIONS.  WITHIN THE WESTERLY/NORTHWESTERLY MID/UPPER FLOW
ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...THE ENVIRONMENT
MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS.  HOWEVER...THE PREDICTABILITY OF A MORE
PRECISE LOCATION OF WHERE THESE CLUSTERS MAY FORM ON ANY GIVEN DAY
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS LOW.  AND...THERE REMAINS
LITTLE IN THE MODEL OUTPUT TO SUGGEST ANYTHING BEYOND RELATIVELY
MINOR OR MARGINAL /FOR THE SEASON/ SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.  AS A
RESULT...SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW 15
PERCENT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

..KERR.. 07/07/2015


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.