Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 311959
SWODY1
SPC AC 311957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VALID 312000Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
STORMS MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY. A FEW STRONG STORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE OVER EAST TEXAS AND THE CASCADE RANGE
OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA AND OREGON.

...20Z UPDATE...
ASIDE FROM SPATIAL ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND SLIGHT
RISK...THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO REMAINS UNCHANGED. SEE THE
PRIOR OUTLOOK DISCUSSION BELOW. ELSEWHERE...A FEW STRONGER STORMS
COULD ALSO OCCUR THROUGH EARLY EVENING IN LOCATIONS SUCH AS
EAST-CENTRAL NEB...THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN/FOUR CORNERS AREA AND/OR
SC. HOWEVER...THE RESPECTIVE SCENARIOS APPEAR TOO MARGINAL FOR AN
INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

..GUYER.. 07/31/2014

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014/

...NY/NEW ENGLAND...
WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A MID LEVEL VORTICITY MAX ROTATING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NY INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.  A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER SYSTEM OVER EASTERN
NY.  THE STORMS WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA
THIS AFTERNOON.  DESPITE MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS...SLOW HEATING
INTO THE 70S WILL YIELD MLCAPE VALUES OF 500-1000 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE
SHEAR VALUES OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL RESULT IN THE RISK OF A FEW
ORGANIZED STORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. PLEASE REFER TO
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NUMBER 1505 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

...TX...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EAST TX.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDS ROUGHLY FROM DAL-JCT AND
WILL SAG ACROSS EAST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  DEWPOINTS WELL
INTO THE 70S AND POCKETS OF STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT IN MODERATE
CAPE VALUES THIS AFTERNOON AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG /6KM SHEAR OF
20-25 KNOTS/ AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RATHER WEAK.
NEVERTHELESS...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS.



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