Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 240600
SWODY1
SPC AC 240559

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF MINNESOTA...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of strong storms -- and possibly a severe storm or two --
may occur during the afternoon across portions of Minnesota.

...Synopsis...
A relatively stagnant, but high-amplitude flow field aloft is
expected to continue today, with the western U.S. trough making
minimal eastward progress toward a stalwart eastern U.S. ridge.

At the surface, a cold front is expected to make slow southeastward
progress across the north central U.S. and central Plains states, as
a weak frontal low shifts quickly north-northeast across the Plains
toward Ontario through the period.

In the western Atlantic, Hurricane Maria is expected to remain well
offshore.

...Parts of central and northern Minnesota...
As a weak surface low shifts northeast across Minnesota during the
afternoon in conjunction with weak short-wave troughing, a small
cluster of semi-organized storms may develop by mid afternoon, as
modest destabilization -- hindered by weak lapse rates aloft --
develops.  Despite the thermodynamic deficiency, favorably strong
flow aloft and some veering with height -- especially near the
surface low -- would suggest potential for one or two sustained/more
intense updrafts to evolve.  As such, will introduce
low-probability/MRGL risk area in parts of Minnesota for the
afternoon hours.  Expect storms to diminish by evening, as the low
shifts into Canada and diurnal stabilization commences.

..Goss/Gleason.. 09/24/2017

$$


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