Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 041953
SWODY1
SPC AC 041951

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0251 PM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE
CAROLINAS...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL PERSIST
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY...NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA...VIRGINIA AND THE CAROLINAS.

PRIMARY CHANGE TO THIS OUTLOOK HAS BEEN TO INCLUDE A MARGINAL RISK
AREA OVER THE CAROLINAS AND A SMALL PORTION OF THE OH VALLEY.

STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE OH VALLEY ALONG A CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW CIRCULATION.
STRONG DIABATIC WARMING HAS PROMOTED MODERATE INSTABILITY WITHIN A
WEAKLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS CAPABLE OF A FEW
STRONG WIND GUSTS.

NUMEROUS PULSE STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER VA AND THE CAROLINAS
WITHIN A WEAKLY CAPPED...MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND WEAKLY SHEARED
ENVIRONMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL TO MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL INTO EARLY EVENING.

WIDESPREAD CLOUDS HAVE LIMITED DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF VORT MAX
OVER NERN ND INTO NWRN MN WHERE A FEW STRONG STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE
INTO EARLY EVENING.

..DIAL.. 09/04/2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT FRI SEP 04 2015/

SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SD.  THIS
FEATURE WILL TRACK ACROSS EASTERN ND AND NORTHWEST MN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.  WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
NEAR THE CIRCULATION CENTER...WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND
SEVERAL CAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR A TRANSIENT STRONG
STORM OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON...CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS OR A BRIEF
TORNADO.  HOWEVER...OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN SEVERE WEATHER IS
MARGINAL.



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