Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS01 KWNS 160538
SWODY1
SPC AC 160537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1237 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THE THREAT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...POTENTIALLY CAPABLE
OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...WILL PROBABLY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MORNING WEDNESDAY.
ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERAL STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN INTO THE WESTERN U.S.

...SYNOPSIS...
THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGIONS AND A LARGE-SCALE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S.  A WEAK DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY
MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS TO MO/IA BY EARLY
WEDNESDAY.  A FRONTAL ZONE OVER PARTS OF THE SERN STATES WILL ARC NW
INTO THE LOW PLAINS OVER ERN KS AS A LEE TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER THE
NRN-CNTRL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND EVOLVES INTO AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING.

...ERN KS/WRN MO...
THE INFLUENCE OF A LEE TROUGH AND SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW
RICHER MOISTURE NWD INTO KS FROM TX/OK DURING THE DAY.  WEAK
MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE
WILL BEGIN TO GLANCE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED RESPONSE
IN INCREASING ISENTROPIC ASCENT BECOMING FOCUSED OVER ERN KS ON THE
NOSE OF A 30 KT WSWLY LLJ.  LOW-LEVEL ASCENT AND MOISTENING IN THE
H85-H7 LAYER WILL PROBABLY YIELD PARCELS REACHING THEIR LFC AND LEAD
TO ISOLATED-SCATTERED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING DURING THE
LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY.  AMPLE EFFECTIVE LAYER
SHEAR /40+ KT/ AND MUCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG WOULD POTENTIALLY SUPPORT
SOME HAIL GROWTH WITH ANY STRONGER UPDRAFTS THAT MANAGE TO FORM.

..SMITH/DEAN.. 09/16/2014



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