Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS01 KWNS 300051
SWODY1
SPC AC 300050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0750 PM CDT Wed Mar 29 2017

Valid 300100Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OZARKS...

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND EXTENDING INTO SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE MISSOURI
VICINITY SOUTH TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
SLIGHT RISK AREA...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms will continue tonight from parts of far East
Texas, extreme eastern Oklahoma, and southeast Kansas eastward into
the lower and middle Mississippi Valley. Large hail, damaging winds,
and a few tornadoes are expected.

...Discussion...
Very slow eastward advance of an upper low over Kansas and an
associated surface storm system is resulting in an increase in
convective coverage/intensity this evening across parts of Missouri,
western Arkansas, and into East Texas/western Louisiana.  Afternoon
destabilization -- which was aided by diurnal heating within a
relatively cloud-free dry slot which expanded across western
portions of Missouri and Arkansas -- is fueling the developing
convection.

Updraft organization/severe risk is being aided by favorably
strengthening/veering flow with height observed across the warm
sector per area VWPs and evening RAOBs.  While risk persists across
the lower Mississippi Valley area, severe threat is increasing
farther north.  The greatest risk this evening is expected to evolve
across the Ozarks vicinity over the next several hours -- east of a
southeast Kansas surface low and in proximity to the west-to-east
warm front where most favorable shear profiles are indicated.

Risk will likely continue into the overnight hours, crossing the
middle and lower Mississippi Valley before diminishing gradually
late in the period.

..Goss.. 03/30/2017

$$


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