Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS01 KWNS 021957
SWODY1
SPC AC 021956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

VALID 022000Z - 031200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NORTHERN VA TO PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT
RISK...FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FROM NORTHERN
VIRGINIA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

...NORTHERN VA TO PARTS OF SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...
STRONG DESTABILIZATION EAST OF THE 1630Z SLIGHT RISK AREA AND AN
INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE A LITTLE EAST
AS WELL.  THE SLIGHT RISK AND SEVERE HAIL/WIND PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN SHIFTED TO EAST SOME ACROSS SOUTHEAST VA AND EASTERN NC TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE-WEATHER THREAT.  OTHERWISE...THE
REST OF THE CAT1 AND CAT2 SEVERE THREAT AREAS FROM NORTHERN VA TO
THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAINS UNCHANGED.

...NORTH TX TO AR...
THE TRAILING EXTENT OF FORCING FOR ASCENT...ATTENDANT TO A
LOW-AMPLITUDE MIDLEVEL TROUGH NOW TRACKING THROUGH THE LOWER MS
VALLEY/CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES...WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A FURTHER DECREASE IN
TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...SOUTHERN ND...
WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY AND RAP-BASED OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED THE
SOUTHWARD-MOVING NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING
500-MB COLD POOL HAVE SHIFTED SOUTH OF ND...ALLOWING FOR THAT
PORTION OF THE GENERAL TSTM AREA TO BE REMOVED.

..PETERS.. 05/02/2016

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016/

...NRN VA TO PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD
TO THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH AN MCV OVER NRN MS
PRECEDES THE PRIMARY TROUGH PER RADAR MOSAICS AND VWP/S ACROSS THE
TN VALLEY.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
SEWD OFF THE NW GULF COAST AND TO THE APPALACHIANS AND N CENTRAL
GULF COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.  CONVECTION ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE
IS ONGOING THIS MORNING INVOF THE COLD FRONT IN CLUSTERS ACROSS WRN
TN AND JUST OFF THE LA COAST.

WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE TN CONVECTION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING FROM WRN NC
TO W OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA.  MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF
1000-1500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP IN THIS CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE ZONE OF STRONGER
SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE TN AND WRN NC NEWD TO NRN
VA...IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANT MCV AND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

SLOW EROSION OF THE STRATUS AND REMNANT COOL AIR WEDGE WILL MODULATE
THE NERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NE VA/MD/DE THIS
AFTERNOON.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE
MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR DESTABILIZATION TO W-SW OF THE DC METRO AREA.

$$


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