Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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ACUS02 KWNS 151725
SWODY2
SPC AC 151724

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1224 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2014

VALID 161200Z - 171200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE UNLIKELY ACROSS THE LOWER 48 STATES ON
WEDNESDAY.

...SOUTH FLORIDA...
A COLD FRONT WILL HAVE CLEARED S FL BY LATE D1/TUE...AND IS EXPECTED
TO STALL OVER THE NRN STRAITS OF FL EARLY D2/WED. POST-FRONTAL WINDS
WILL VEER FROM NLY TO ENELY DURING THE DAY WHILE THE FRONT
WEAKENS...ALLOWING FOR CONTINENTAL TRAJECTORIES TO BE SLOWLY
REPLACED BY THOSE MORE MARITIME-BASED. DAYTIME HEATING AMIDST MODEST
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT MARGINAL BUOYANCY...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG ASCENDING
BRANCHES OF DIURNALLY BOLSTERED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS.
HOWEVER...PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS
WILL NOT MODIFY SUFFICIENTLY FOR MORE ROBUST DESTABILIZATION. WHILE
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE ENTIRELY RULED
OUT...CONFIDENCE IN SUCH ACTIVITY AND ITS ANTICIPATED COVERAGE ARE
TOO LOW FOR GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION AT THIS TIME.

...ELSEWHERE...
A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE IMPULSE AND ACCOMPANYING SFC CYCLONE
CROSSING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT AREAS OF PRECIPITATION AND
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE EXPECTED
SCARCITY OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE PAUCITY OF BUOYANCY SHOULD
KEEP THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TOO SPARSE FOR GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM
DELINEATION. SIMILARLY...AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO CANNOT
BE RULED OUT AMIDST DIURNALLY/OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED PRECIPITATION
OVER THE ROCKIES...THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
TOO LIMITED FOR GENERAL-THUNDERSTORM DELINEATION.

..COHEN.. 04/15/2014



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