Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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079
ACUS02 KWNS 051709
SWODY2
SPC AC 051708

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1108 AM CST MON DEC 05 2016

VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS A PORTION OF NORTHERN FL
THROUGH SOUTHERN GA...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL FL INTO
CENTRAL GA AND SOUTHERN SC...

...SUMMARY...
A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL EXIST TUESDAY FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.

...SYNOPSIS...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER AL/MS TUESDAY MORNING WILL TRANSLATE
QUICKLY TO THE DELMARVA BY EARLY EVENING.  A SURFACE LOW WILL
WEAKEN/OCCLUDE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TN VALLEY DURING THE MORNING COINCIDENT WITH A SEPARATE LOW
DEVELOPING ACROSS GA AND EASTWARD TO CAPE HATTERAS TOWARDS SUNSET.
A WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT OVER
CENTRAL GA INTO THE SC COASTAL PLAIN AND A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
EAST ACROSS GA INTO SC AND NORTHERN FL BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND LATER
THROUGH THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA AFTER DARK.

...NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA...
BLENDED-TPW SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NORTHWARD-MIGRATING MOISTURE
PLUME --ORIGINS TRACED TO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN-- OVER THE
EAST-CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO MIDDAY MONDAY.  THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THIS MOISTURE PLUME IS FORECAST TO INFILTRATE THE FL BIG BEND AND
SOUTHERN GA REGIONS PRIOR TO THE START OF THE DAY-2 PERIOD.  DESPITE
THE PREVALENCE OF WEAK MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /14-15 G PER KG LOWEST 100-MB
MEAN MIXING RATIO/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK BUOYANCY /250-750 J PER
KG MLCAPE/ IN THE WARM SECTOR.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...STRONG WIND FIELDS /50+ KT AT H7/ WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM NORTHERN FL INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.  DESPITE THIS
OTHERWISE CONDITIONAL YET FAVORABLE SETUP FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THE RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND
POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO...ABOVE AVERAGE SPREAD AMONGST
DETERMINISTIC CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS YIELDS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY FOR THIS FORECAST.  VARYING SCENARIOS OF...IN SOME CASES...
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OCCURRING ACROSS THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE SEVERE-RISK AREAS PRIOR TO 12 UTC TUESDAY
WOULD GREATLY IMPACT THE PROSPECTS FOR DESTABILIZATION.  AT THIS
TIME...GIVEN CONFLICTING SIGNALS...WILL DEFER ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE NEXT OUTLOOK.

..SMITH.. 12/05/2016

$$



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