Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 301120
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 301120
TXZ000-301245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0841
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0620 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL INTO NERN TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243...

VALID 301120Z - 301245Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 243
CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...STRONG SURFACE GUSTS MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LINGERING
STORMS SPREADING EAST OF THE WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...BUT A NEW WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.

DISCUSSION...STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS SPREADING ACROSS AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX...JUST AHEAD OF AN
INCREASINGLY BETTER DEFINED CONVECTIVELY GENERATED MID-LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONT TRAILING AN
IMPULSE SLOWLY PROGRESSING ACROSS THE OZARK PLATEAU.  INHIBITION FOR
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY HAS CONTINUED TO
SLOWLY INCREASE...AND LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SUGGESTS CAPE MAY BE
MORE MODEST EAST OF THE METROPLEX DUE TO WEAKER MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES.

THREE-SECOND PEAK GUSTS RECENTLY AT LEAST APPROACHED SEVERE LIMITS
AT A NUMBER OF OBSERVATION SITES ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
METROPLEX.  WHILE IT DOES APPEAR THAT CONVECTION SUPPORTING THIS
ACTIVITY MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF WEAKENING...CONVECTION PASSING
NEAR/JUST SOUTH OF THE METROPLEX REMAINS STRONG...AND COULD STILL
PRODUCE SIMILAR GUSTS THROUGH 12-13Z.  BEYOND THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO...IT REMAINS A BIT UNCLEAR HOW MUCH LONGER ONGOING THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL MAINTAIN STRENGTH.  BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY LITTLE
EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIVE FURTHER STRENGTHENING.

..KERR.. 05/30/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...

LAT...LON   33399631 33139526 32949491 32359447 31889494 31509621
            31539723 31789728 32119698 32759669 33399631




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