Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS

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000
ACUS11 KWNS 310956
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 310955
OKZ000-311100-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0799
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0455 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...NWRN AND N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 310955Z - 311100Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE GUSTS /50-70 MPH/ ARE POSSIBLE
WITH A FORWARD-PROPAGATING MCS AS IT MOVES ESEWD ACROSS NWRN AND
N-CNTRL OK DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  ISOLATED CHARACTER OF
THE THREAT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
ISSUANCE.

DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A STRONG TO SEVERE BAND OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WOODS AND WOODWARD COUNTIES IN OK AROUND 0945Z.
RECENTLY OBSERVED GUSTS OF 55 AND 69 MPH FROM OK MESONET STATIONS
SAMPLED INTENSE DOWNDRAFTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM CLUSTER AS IT
MOVES AT 280 DEG AT 37 KT.  THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER IS RELATIVELY MOIST BUT NOT PROHIBITIVELY COOL
WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S AND LOW-MID 60S DEWPOINTS AND 1000-2000
J/KG MUCAPE PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.  A CLUSTER OF STORMS DEVELOPING
IN A SSE-NNW WARM ADVECTION WING FROM NRN CANADIAN COUNTY INTO
GARFIELD COUNTY MAY ACT TO LOCALLY STABILIZE THIS AREA DUE TO
CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING AND PERHAPS LESSEN THE RISK FOR SEVERE WINDS
AS THIS ACTIVITY MOVES ENE AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LINE.  THE
HRRR-P CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THE BAND OF STORMS WILL MOVE IN A MORE
EWD DIRECTION AND BE LOCATED PRIMARILY N OF THE OKC METRO DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 05/31/2016

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...

LAT...LON   35769762 36259943 36969859 36829712 36019707 35769762



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