Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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000
ACUS11 KWNS 042209
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042209
KSZ000-042315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1611
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0509 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SW/S-CNTRL KS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 042209Z - 042315Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS W-CNTRL KS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE SEWD INTO SW/S-CNTRL KS WITH SOME SEVERE TSTMS PROBABLE.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN CONTINUED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COOL POOL SURGING SWD ACROSS W-CNTRL KS.
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES
IN THE UPPER 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...SUPPORTING MLCAPE
APPROACHING 1500 J PER KG PER THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS. SHEAR ACROSS
THE AREA IS DECENT WITH GLD VAD REPORTING 52 KTS OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR AND MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-45 KT. THIS
ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS. A WW WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED SOON TO COVER THIS ANTICIPATED SVR THREAT.

..MOSIER/CORFIDI.. 08/04/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...

LAT...LON   37610126 38050090 38499949 38979848 39009800 38779789
            38169799 37439873 37239914 37010030 37100117 37610126




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