Tropical Weather Discussion
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AXPZ20 KNHC 242148

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Jan 24 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


The southern end of a cold front extends off the nw coast of
Costa Rica, and is accompanied by broken low to mid level
clouds. A surface trough extends from 06N86W to 05N108W, and is
also accompanied by broken low clouds with intermittent showers.
The ITCZ extends from 09N105W to 05N120W to 02N140W, but lacks
significant convection.



A low level trough is analyzed from 25N109W to 17N111W, with
broken to mid level clouds observed within 75 nm of the trough
axis. Long period nw swell in the form of 8 to 16 ft seas, is
propagating se across the area w of 110W. These large seas are
forecast to subside to 8 to 11 ft on Wed. Hazardous near-shore
marine conditions in the associated dangerous surf is expected
to continue until the seas subside.

Mixing sw and nw swell resulting in seas of 7 to 11 ft are
expected between 96W and 110W through early tonight, and
subsiding to 4 to 7 ft on Wed.

Gulf of California: moderate nw to n winds tonight are expected
to increase to a fresh breeze late Wed, and further increase to
locally strong across the central gulf waters on Wed evening.
The gradient will tighten some more throughout Thu with strong
nw flow expected across the entire gulf waters on Thu night,
with embedded swaths of near gale force winds. Seas are forecast
to build to 11 ft in the open fetch waters along 26N on Fri
night into Sat.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: strong northerly winds are expected to
begin on Thu evening and rapidly increase to near gale force
late Thu night with seas building to 10 ft downstream of the
gulf near 15N95W. The north winds will diminish to a fresh
breeze mid day Fri, then briefly increase to locally strong on
Fri evening.


Gulf of Papagayo: Fresh ene winds expected tonight and Wed
night, then increasing to a little with brief strong winds on
Thu night with seas building to about 6 ft.

Gulf of Panama: Fresh n winds expected tonight and Wed with
guidance suggesting very brief strong winds on Wed night. Then
fresh nocturnal northerly flow on Thu night.

Light to gentle winds, and combined seas of 3 to 4 ft, are
occurring elsewhere.


A ridge extends se from a 1029 mb high pressure at 31N141W to
near 20N108W. Large NW swell with combined seas to 15 ft are
spreading se across the discussion waters w of 96W. A surface
trough is expected to develop s of the ridge on Wed roughly from
13N140W to 16N128W, and extend from 10N140W to 15N135W to
15N126W on Wed night. Strong ne to e winds will develop just n
of the trough, and gradually spread northward out to about 480
nm on Wed night. A surface low is expected to develop along the
trough near 12N137W on Thu, with the gradient supporting strong
to near gale force winds across the waters from 12N to 23N
between 123W and 140W, with seas building to about 18 ft on Fri.

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