Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010930
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 1 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE JIMENA CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 139.1W AT 0900 UTC...MOVING
W 280 DEG AT 11 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 115 KT GUSTS TO
140 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 948 MB. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT JIMENA HAS A WELL DEFINED 20 NM EYE SURROUNDED BY A
100 NM CIRCULAR RING OF DEEP CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IN BANDS ELSEWHERE
WITHIN 210 NM OF THE CENTER. JIMENA WILL MOVE W OF 140W INTO THE
CENTRAL PACIFIC LATER TODAY...BUT OUTER EFFECTS OF THE HURRICANE
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT W OF THE AREA AND PERSIST UNTIL THU OR FRI.
JIMENA HAS A LARGE AREA OF STRONG WINDS AND HIGH SEAS WITHIN 500
NM OF THE CENTER...WITH MAX SEAS TO 45 FT. REFER TO THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23
KNHC AND HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIAHSFEPI/FZPN02 KWBC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E IS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 113.3W AT
0900 UTC...MOVING WNW 295 DEG AT 7 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS
ARE 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 1006 MB.
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
NEAR THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN
75 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF A LINE FROM 14N111W TO 08N116.5W. THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY
AND INTENSIFY TO AROUND 45 KT WED THEN WEAKEN AS IT ENCOUNTERS
AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WHILE MOVING FURTHER NORTH. REFER TO
THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP4/WTPZ24 KNHC FOR ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 12N88W TO 08N95W TO 10N103W. MOST
OF THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS MINIMAL AT THE PRESENT TIME.

...DISCUSSION...

A SURFACE RIDGE NOSES INTO NORTHERN WATERS N OF 21N W OF 120W.
AN ASCAT PASS THIS MORNING INDICATED SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 20
KT IN THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA N OF 28N ASSOCIATED WITH A
THERMAL TROUGH NEAR THE CONFLUENCE OF THE GILA AND COLORADO IN
THE U.S. DESERT SOOUTHWEST. SOME NW SWELL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG
WINDS EARLIER ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA IS BUMPING SEAS UP
TO 8 FT N OF 28N BETWEEN 118W-123W. ANOTHER AREA OF SOUTHERLY
SWELL IS REACHING SOUTHERN WATERS...WITH CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL
EXPECTED TO BE S OF 03N-05N W OF 107W BY WED NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL


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