Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 161022
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL TROPICAL STORM CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE SEP 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL STORM ODILE WAS LOCATED NEAR NEAR 27.4N 112.7W 992 MB
AT 0900 UTC SEP 16 MOVING NNW OR 340 DEG AT 9 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT GUSTS 65 KT. THE CENTER CONTINUES TO MOVE
OVER THE NARROW LANDMASS OF THE PENINSULA...WITH LATEST
SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGESTING THE CENTER VERY NEAR THE EAST
COASTLINE. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 25 NM
OF CENTER...WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 180 NM NE AND 120 NM SW SEMICIRCLES. THE CENTER WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND MAY
BRIEFLY STRADDLE THE EASTERN COASTLINE TODAY...THEN MOVE OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND WED WHILE WEAKENING
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. ODILE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
TOTALS OF AROUND 18 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA AND OVER COASTAL PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL GULF OF
CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF
AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. SEE LATEST INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPEP5/WTPZ35 KNHC AND
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER HEADERS MIATCMEP5/WTPZ25 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS.

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SW OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC HAS
IMPROVED IN ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT...AND HAS DEVELOPED INTO
TROPICAL STORM POLO...THE 17TH TROPICAL CYCLONE OF THIS SEASON.
TROPICAL STORM POLO WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.9N 98.4W 1005 MB AT 0900
UTC SEP 16 MOVING WNW OR 295 DEG AT 8 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. THE CENTER OF POLO IS PRESENTLY LOCATED
ALONG THE NE EDGE OF A LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED TO LOCALLY
NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF THE
CENTER...WHILE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION OCCURRING WITHIN 360 NM NE OF THE CENTER WAS SHIFTING
WWD ACROSS THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND OFFSHORE
WATERS...PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM
FORCE. POLO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY. HOWEVER...UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR AND
SOMEWHAT COOLER WATERS AHEAD CHURNED UP BY ODILE ARE EXPECTED
LIMIT POLO TO JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES ARE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE MEXICAN COASTAL AREAS FROM GUERRERO TO JALISCO AS POLO
MOVES CLOSE TO AND PARALLEL TO THE COAST.

THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR NEAR 23N109W 1007 MB
MOVING N-NE 15 TO 20 KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING WITHIN 150 NM SE QUADRANT. THE LOW HAS
BECOME ABSORBED IN THE BROAD MUCH LARGER CIRCULATION OF
ODILE...AND THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY. HOWEVER...A
SURGE OF 20-30 KT WINDS AND HIGH SEAS 10 TO 12 FT WILL RACE
QUICKLY NORTHWARD INTO THROUGH THE ENTRANCE OF THE GULF OF
CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING AND LIKELY IMPACT THE COAST OF SINALOA
WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF WINDS AND SEAS TODAY.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N77W TO 12N90W TO T.D. POLO NEAR 11.9N
98.4W 1005 MB...WHERE IT IS FRACTURED...THEN RESUMES FROM
16N109W TO 11N124W TO 12N132W TO LOW PRES NEAR 10N138W 1011 MB
TO BEYOND 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE N OF 08N E OF 91W TO THE
COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS
BETWEEN 109W AND 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
A 1016 MB SUBTROPICAL HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N128W AND EXTENDS
A RIDGE NORTHEASTWARD TO 32N126W AND SOUTHEASTWARD TO 16N121W.
THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING MAINLY GENTLE TRADE WINDS N OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH OVER W AND CENTRAL WATERS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
HAS BEEN WEAKENED BY A DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO ITS NW. THE SURFACE
REFLECTION OF THIS TROUGH INCLUDES A 1003 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM
JUST NW OF THE AREA NEAR 34N139W THAT EXTENDS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS NW WATERS FROM 30N138.5W THROUGH 29N140W TO NEAR MAUI.
THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT E OVER THE NEXT TWO
DAYS...PUSHING THE COLD FRONT EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS
AND SHOVING THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH SOUTHWARD. SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT
RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SE WITH THE FRONT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD WED EVENING.

THE LEADING EDGE OF LARGE CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL WITH PERIODS
OF 18-20 SECONDS HAS REACHED THE COAST OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL
AMERICA OVERNIGHT...RAISING SEAS TO 8 FT AND GREATER ACROSS MOST
OF THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS E OF 110W. THIS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTLINES TODAY AND
WED. BETWEEN 100W AND 120W THIS SWELL HAS MERGED WITH THE AREA
OF 8 FT SEAS GENERATED BY ODILE...YIELDING HIGH AND CONFUSED
SEAS. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
BEHIND THE EXITING POLO THROUGH WED AS ODILE WEAKENS AND THE
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SWELL DAMPENS.

$$
STRIPLING


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