Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 241547
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAY 24 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ANALYZED AS A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW
NEAR 12N131W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
WAS WITHIN 180 NM NE AND E QUADRANTS WHILE SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION COULD BE FOUND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 125W-
133W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS MAINTAINING FRESH TO STRONG WINDS WITHIN 330 NM N
QUADRANT OF THE LOW CENTER WITH SEAS OF 9-11 FT. THE LOW HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE AS IT REACHES NEAR
14N133W MON MORNING. ON MON...THE LOW WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WHICH WILL LIKELY INHIBIT DEEP
CONVECTION AND WEAKEN THE LOW AS IT CONTINUES N-NW TO NEAR
17N136W BY TUE MORNING.

A 1010 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 06N139W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTION CAN BE FOUND NEAR THE CENTER. AN ASCAT PASS 0708 UTC
SHOWED WINDS WELL LESS THAN THE ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 20-25 KT
NEAR THE SYSTEM. SEAS TO 8 FT SHOULD STILL BE LINGERING NEAR THE
LOW IN MIXED E AND SW SWELL. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO
BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS DECREASING. IT IS FORECAST TO
MOVE ON A N-NW TRACK AND COULD CROSS 140W LATER TODAY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 97W FROM 02N-14W. SCATTERED
MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 150 NM OF
THE WAVE FROM 06N-13N. THIS WAVE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE W
AROUND 10-15 KT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ HAVE BROKEN DOWN WITH LIGHT WINDS
FOUND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHERE THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FOUND. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS FROM 02N-10N E OF 87W. A BROAD LOW PRES SYSTEM WAS ANALYZED
AS A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 09N116W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WAS
WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW SEMICIRCLES OF THIS LOW.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W
EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH 30N130W TO THE ISLAS REVILLAGIGEDO.
THIS RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING. ASIDE FROM THE TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE...PRIMARILY MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS LIE SW OF THE RIDGE AXIS EXCEPT OVER NW WATERS. A
RAPIDSCAT PASS FROM 0856 UTC CAPTURED FRESH TO STRONG SE TO S
WINDS N OF 23N W OF 137W AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT W OF THE AREA
FROM 32N144W TO 30N143W TO THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. THIS FRONT
IS ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP LAYERED LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N148W. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FORECAST WATERS N OF 24N EARLY MON MORNING.
FRESH TO STRONG S-SE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN NW WATERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT UNTIL MON MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE
FROM 32N138W TO 30N137W TO 24N140W TUE MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS
DIMINISH.

4-6 FT SEAS IN SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SWELL OF 16-18 SECOND PERIOD
HAS REACHED THE ENTIRE PACIFIC COAST AND ARE BEGINNING TO
SUBSIDE. LARGE AND DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTLINE
SHOULD WANE OVERNIGHT. A NEW BATCH OF SW SWELL WITH PERIODS IN
THE 19-21 SECOND RANGE WILL CROSS THE EQUATOR OVERNIGHT. IT WILL
REACH THE COAST WITH 3-4 FT SEAS FROM NEAR THE BORDER OR
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA SOUTHWARD AS WELL AS ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST
FROM ACAPULCO TO PUERTO ANGEL WITH 5-6 FT SEAS BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD TUE MORNING.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM ANALYZED NEAR 09N116W IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. CONVECTION NEAR
THE LOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N118W.
EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SYSTEM BY LATE MON
AS THE ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS N. THIS SHOULD DIMINISH THE ASSOCIATED
CONVECTION.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN AND TROUGHING TO THE SW ENHANCED BY THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL WAVE HAS GENERATED 20-25 KT WINDS IN THE
GULF OF PAPAGAYO THIS MORNING WITH THE HELP OF NOCTURNAL
DRAINAGE FLOW. SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 8 FT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL SLACKEN AS THE WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA. WINDS AND
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT A FRESH BREEZE OR LESS AND BELOW
8 FT...RESPECTIVELY...THROUGH TUE MORNING.

$$
SCHAUER



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