Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 302157
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT AUG 30 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE WWD ACROSS THE TROPICAL EPAC
AND WAS ALONG ABOUT 105W...EXTENDING FROM 07N INTO THE COASTAL
STATES OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT AND WAS
PROVIDING MOISTURE FOR MUCH OF THE CONVECTION OCCURRING ACROSS
THE NEAR AND OFFSHORE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO FROM 101W TO
106W. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE WWD INTO A GRADUALLY DRIER
AND MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
HOWEVER...AS THIS OCCURS...THE MONSOON TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
LIFT NORTHWARD AFTER ITS PASSAGE...AND BEGIN TO FUEL INCREASING
TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND
MICHOACAN...LEADING TO UNSETTLED WEATHER THERE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N74W TO 12N95W TO
12.5N104W TO 08N122W...WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO ITCZ...CONTINUING
ON TO BEYOND 08N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
WAS NOTED WITHIN 300 NM S OF TROUGH BETWEEN 92W AND 112W.

SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 210
NM S OF COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 94W AND 100W...AND WITHIN 240 NM
SW OF COAST BETWEEN 101W AND 106W.

...DISCUSSION...

A 1009 MB LOW PRES CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF MARIE...WAS CENTERED
NEAR 31.5N135W...MOVING W-NW AROUND 10 KT. RECENT SCATTEROMETER
PASSES DEPICTED A BROAD AREA OF 20-25 KT WINDS EXTENDING OUT 240
NM ACROSS THE NW SEMICIRCLE OF THE CENTER...WHICH CONTINUES TO
GENERATE MIXED WIND SWELL MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS W OF A
LINE FROM 30N132W TO 26N135W TO 25N140W...YIELDING SEAS 8 TO 10
FT. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY W TO SW DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS AND WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH ASSOCIATED WINDS AND
SEAS DIMINISHING AND SUBSIDING OVER THE NW WATERS SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON.

A 1026 MB HIGH NW OF THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 41N158W EXTENDING
A NARROW RIDGE EASTWARD THROUGH 39N129W AND THEN CURVING S-SE
INTO THE DISCUSSION WATERS TO 30N125W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THIS RIDGE AND TROUGHING ALONG THE NW PORTION OF MEXICO
HAD BEEN SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG NW-N WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. HOWEVER THE LATEST
DATA AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE THAT THE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED
AND WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO LESS THAN 20 KT OFFSHORE OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA...WHERE SEAS AREA NOW 5-6 FT.

ELSEWHERE W OF 110W...THE RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WESTWARD
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE REMNANT LOW OF MARIE CONTINUES
TO THE W-NW THEN W. THE RIDGE WILL SUPPORT MAINLY GENTLE TO
MODERATE TRADE WINDS AND 4-7 FT SEAS WITH MIXED SW SWELL.

E OF 110W...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH GENTLE
TO MODERATE WINDS AND 4-6 FT SEAS THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SW
FLOW S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL INCREASE TO FRESH LEVELS WELL
TO THE SW OF MEXICO IN 24 HOURS...WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING
TO 8-9 FT BY 48 HOURS FROM 09N TO 15N BETWEEN 100W AND 1115W.

$$
STRIPLING



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