Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 211538
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Aug 21 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

The center of Hurricane Kenneth at 21/1500 UTC is near 17.9N
130.9W, moving WNW or 300 degrees 9 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds
are 110 knots with gusts to 135 knots. Convective precipitation:
Numerous strong is within 60 nm of the center. Scattered
moderate to strong is within 120 nm of center in N and S
quadrants, and within 90 nm of center in E quadrant. Kenneth is
forecast to weaken, and become a tropical storm in 48 hours.
Please refer to the National Hurricane Center Forecast Advisory
under WMO/AWIPS headers WTPZ23 KNHC/MIATCMEP3, and the High Seas
Forecast under WMO/AWIPS headers FZPN03 KNHC/MIAHSFEP2 for more
information.

..TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W from 20N southward, moving
westward 15 to 20 knots. Convective precipitation is near the
monsoon trough, within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough, between 93W and 100W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough passes through 10N86W, to a 1010 mb low
pressure center that is near 10N97W, to 10N112W, to a 1010 mb
low pressure center that is near 08N118W, to 08N125W. The
monsoon trough starts again near 13N133W, and it continues
beyond 12N140W. Convective precipitation: scattered moderate to
isolated strong: within 120 nm S of monsoon trough between 85W
and 92W, within 75 nm N of monsoon trough between 88W and 90W,
within 300 nm N of monsoon trough between 93W and 100W, within
60 nm on either side of monsoon trough between 99W and 101W,
within 60 nm S of monsoon trough between 115W and 117W, within
90 nm S of monsoon trough between 118W and 125W, within 120 nm N
of monsoon trough between 120W and 125W, and from 12N to 14N
between 129W and 132W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is along the eastern side of the Baja
California Peninsula and Gulf of California at the present time.
This trough will remain in the area through the end of the week
with a weak surface low developing at times along the trough to
the north of 29N. A surface ridge, extending across the western
waters, will weaken later today. A current 1014 mb low pressure
center, that is near 33N125W, will drift southward. Moderate NW
winds will prevail through the end of the week in the area that
is to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, with 3 to 5 ft
seas.

Gulf of Tehuantepec: Fresh to strong northerly winds funneling
into the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue for another 6 hour or
so, with seas to 8 ft. Fresh N drainage winds are forecast each
night through early Wed.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light and variable winds are expected N of the monsoon trough
through Thursday, while moderate to fresh WSW winds are expected
S of the monsoon trough axis, with 4 to 6 ft seas.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1027 mb high pressure center is near 39N139W. A ridge extends
to the southeast, through 30N133W, 26N124W, to near 16N113W. N
swell generated by strong northerly winds, that are to the west
of the 33N125W low pressure center that is drifting southward
off the California coast, will build seas to 8-9 ft north of 28N
between 125W and 136W on Tuesday morning. Moderate to locally
fresh anticyclonic flow is forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon
trough and W of 120W.

$$
mt



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