Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 240302
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU JUL 24 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0230 UTC.

....SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 11N128W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.
LATE DAY VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION WAS BECOMING MORE FOCUSED WITHIN 90
NM OF THE LOW IN THE E SEMICIRCLE AND WITHIN 75 NM OF THE LOW IN
THE NW QUADRANT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AND THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY OF THIS
IS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES W OR WNW AT 10 TO 15 KT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO 10N92W MOVING
W 15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS NO DEEP CONVECTION
DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 06N
TO 10N BETWEEN 93W AND 100W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 08N105W TO 16N103W MOVING W 15 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ GENERALLY FROM 06N TO 12N
BETWEEN 106W AND 110W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N117W TO 11N119W MOVING W 15-20 KT
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS
FROM 11N TO 15N.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N131W TO 11N128W MOVING W 15 KT.
THE 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES IS LOCATED AT
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE WAVE. MOST OF THE CONVECTION IN THE AREA
IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE AREA AND IS
DESCRIBED ABOVE.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
MONSOON TROUGH FROM 08N78W TO 08N90W TO 09N100W. ITCZ FROM
09N100W TO 13N110W TO 1007 MB LOW 11N128W TO 1009 MB LOW
09N139W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE
OF AXIS BETWEEN 9W AND 100W...BETWEEN 106W AND 110W...AND WITHIN
180 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 130W AND 136W. SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 105W.

...DISCUSSION...
A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 15N W OF 125W. THE MEAN AXIS
EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 29N133W TO 18N135W.
MODERATE SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AND STABLE AIR AT THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER LEVELS IS OVER THE AREA N OF 20N W OF 120W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW IS ENHANCING WIDESPREAD CONVECTION ALONG NEARLY
THE ENTIRE LENGTH OF THE ITCZ. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER SW NEW MEXICO NEAR 32N107W WITH
ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE ANTICYCLONE INTO THE E
PACIFIC TO A COL NEAR 22N120W. A SMALL UPPER CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED JUST S OF THE UPPER RIDGE NEAR 19N112W
WAS BECOMING STATIONARY.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE TRADE WINDS OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN CONTINUE TO PULSE THROUGH THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO
THIS EVENING. AN EARLIER 1544 UTC ASCAT PASS CAPTURED AN AREA OF
20-25 KT WINDS IN THE REGION. THESE WINDS WILL PULSE AGAIN TO 20-
25 KT TONIGHT INTO THU AND AGAIN THU NIGHT AND FRI. SEAS BUILD
TO 9 FT DURING EACH PULSE.

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS TIGHTENED ACROSS
SOUTHERN MEXICO WITH NLY WINDS 20-25 KT BLOWING THROUGH THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC. THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DECREASE TO 20 KT LESS
AND SEAS SUBSIDE TO LESS THAN 8 FT THU AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE A SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA N
OF 15N W OF 115W WITH WINDS 20 KT OR LESS.

$$
COBB



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