Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 262150
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED NOV 26 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC STORM WARNING...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IN
THE SW GULF OF MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. WINDS HAVE LIKELY INCREASED
TO MINIMAL STORM FORCE IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
NOW INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL 45-50 KT WINDS TO
PERSIST THROUGH FRI MORNING...ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY
DIMINISH BELOW STORM FORCE EACH AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
WINDS WILL THEN DIMINISH TO GALE FORCE FRI AFTERNOON...THEN TO
20 KT OR LESS BY SAT. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS TO 24-
25 FT AND SEAS OF 8 FT OR GREATER GENERATED BY THIS IMPRESSIVE
WIND EVENT WILL PROPAGATE WELL AWAY FROM ITS SOURCE REGION AND
APPROACH THE EQUATOR BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 08N82W TO 07N96W. THE ITCZ
EXTENDS FROM 07N96W TO 10N108W TO 11N124W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 75 NM S OF ITCZ AXIS
W OF 119W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF CALIFORNIA...SMALL AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS
CONTINUES N OF 27N WITH SEAS TO 7-8 FT SUPPORTED BY A WEAKENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 20
KT OR LESS LATE TONIGHT.

GULF OF PAPAGAYO...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SE INTO THE
THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. EXPECT FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE NE WINDS
IN AND DOWNSTREAM FROM PAPAGAYO WITH RESULTANT SEAS BUILDING TO
11-12 FT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 48 HOURS WITH
STRONGEST WINDS OCCURRING DURING LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING.

GULF OF FONSECA...THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES FRESH NE WINDS IN THE GULF TONIGHT AND EARLY THU...
THEN INCREASING TO FRESH TO STRONG THE FOLLOWING NIGHT AND
MORNING BUILDING SEAS UP TO 8 FT.

A WEAK COLD FRONT IS IN FAR NW WATERS FROM 30N138W TO 28N140W.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE THU THROUGH FRI. NW
SWELL TO 12 FT WILL PROPAGATE SE ACROSS NW WATERS THROUGH THU.

1026 MB HIGH N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED NEAR 33N124W
EXTENDS A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN WATERS. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM 15N119W TO 11N123W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A SMALL AREA OF FRESH NE
WINDS W OF THE TROUGH AND AN AREA OF COMBINED SEAS FROM RESIDUAL
NW SWELL AND NE WIND WAVES TO 8-9 FT FROM 09N TO 16N W OF 120W.

$$
MUNDELL



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