Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021535
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE SEP 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1415 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL STORM NORBERT WAS NEAR 17.5N 106.5W 1004
MB AT 1500 UTC SEP 02 MOVING N-NE OR 020 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS WERE 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTENDED WITHIN 30 NM NE QUADRANT AND 50 NM SE QUADRANT.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION WAS NOTED WITHIN 45 NM OF CENTER.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270
NM NW SEMICIRCLE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FOUND IN THE
REMAINDER AREA FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 101W AND 113W. TO THE
NORTH OF NORBERT...SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 90 NM OF COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM 21N TO 25N. AN
ALTIMETER PASS FROM 13Z SHOWED SEAS TO 12 FT EXTEND AROUND 240
NM SW QUADRANT OF CENTER WITHIN A LARGE SWATH OF 20-33 KT SW
WINDS FOUND S OF NORBERT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN NORTHWARD BY
TONIGHT AND THEN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BY TOMORROW. NORBERT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 08N78W TO 08N96W TO
14N101W...THEN CONTINUES FROM 16N112W TO 10N136W. THE ITCZ AXIS
WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N136W TO 09N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION WAS OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN 240 NM
EITHER SIDE OF AXIS E OF 82W...INCLUDING OVER MUCH OF PANAMA.
SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 180 NM
N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 84W AND 88W AND WITHIN 210 NM N OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 86W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WAS BETWEEN 90 NM AND 270 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 113W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY
STAGNANT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT...CONVECTION ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH WILL BE THE MAIN
FEATURE OF INTEREST. AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR 19N105W EXTENDS A RIDGE
AXIS SE ALONG THE COAST TOWARD PANAMA WHERE IT MEETS UP WITH THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGED NEAR THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE UPPER
DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND
SHOULD CONTINUE TO DO SO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS CONVERGED NEAR
NORBERT AND SW ALONG THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS AREA ALONG THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN NORBERT AND 120W SHOULD ALSO REMAIN AN
ACTIVE AREA FOR CONVECTION.

TRADE WINDS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMATOLOGY AS BOTH THE
REMNANTS OF MARIE JUST NW OF THE AREA AND AN UPPER LOW NEAR
10N133W DISRUPTING THE DEEP LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW.

CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELL HAS BROUGHT SEAS TO 8 FT IN THE AREA S
OF 01N BETWEEN 110W AND 132W THIS MORNING. THE SWELL SHOULD PUSH
NORTHWARD...WITH SEAS OVER 8 FT REACHING AS FAR AS 07N IN
CENTRAL WATERS BY WED MORNING BEFORE BEGINNING TO SUBSIDE EARLY
THU.

$$
SCHAUER


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