Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXPZ20 KNHC 280239
TWDEP

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE JUL 28 2015

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E WAS NEAR 16.0N 127.0W 1007 MB AT
0300 UTC JUL 28 MOVING WNW OR 290 DEG AT 12 KT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT GUSTS 40 KT. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 75 NM S QUADRANT. SCATTERED MODERATE
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WAS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 180 NM SE AND S
QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN THROUGH
TUE AS IT CONTINUES MOVING W-NW...POSSIBLY BECOME A TROPICAL
STORM. WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON WED. SEE THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADER MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 109W FROM 08N-16N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
210 NM E AND 90 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION 04N-08N BETWEEN 105W-110W.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED FROM 14N118W TO LOW PRES NEAR
09N115W 1008 MB TO 07N114W. THE WAVE WAS MOVING W AROUND 15-20
KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM NE AND 300 NM SW
SEMICIRCLES OF LOW PRES.

A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ANALYZED ALONG 133W FROM 07N-15N. THE WAVE
WAS MOVING W AROUND 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN
60 NM E AND 210 NM W OF THE WAVE FROM 09N-13N.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS WAS ANALYZED FROM 10N86W TO 07N93W TO
09N105W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WAS WITHIN 60
NM N AND 150 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 91W-97W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WAS FROM 02N-06N E OF 87W.

...DISCUSSION...

1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE ANALYZED WELL N OF THE AREA NEAR 44N136W
EXTENDED A RIDGE AXIS SE THROUGH 32N128W TO 19N114W...OVER THE
WATERS OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. DEEP-LAYERED TROUGHING
OVER THE SW UNITED STATES AND A MID-LEVEL LOW MEANDERING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA HAVE FORCED MORE
TROUGHING AT THE SURFACE. THIS HAS INCREASED THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND THE WINDS OFFSHORE OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. MODERATE TO FRESH NW WINDS ARE BELIEVED TO BE OFF THE
PACIFIC COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA THIS EVENING.
THEY ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN BY TUE WHEN THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING
WEAKENS.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND LOWER
PRESSURE NEAR 10N OVER W WATERS HAS BROUGHT MODERATE TO FRESH
TRADE WINDS TO THE AREA PRIMARILY N OF 10N W OF 127W. THE AREA
OF STRONGEST TRADES CLOSEST TO THE CLIMATOLOGICAL CONVERGENCE
ZONE LOCATION IS FORECAST TO SHIFT W OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E MOVES W-NW...SHIFTING
THE STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT W. SEAS WERE 7-9 FT IN NE WIND
WAVES AND MIXED SE AND SW SWELL PRIMARILY FROM 10N TO 20N W OF
135W. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE BELOW 8 FT BY TUE
MORNING.

GAP WINDS...
GULF OF PAPAGAYO...ENHANCED TRADE WINDS FROM THE SOUTHERN
CARIBBEAN ARE FUNNELING THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA. OFFSHORE NE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY PULSE TO 20-25 KT WITH THE
ASSISTANCE OF NOCTURNAL DRAINAGE FLOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND TUE
NIGHT WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT.

$$
SCHAUER



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