Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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FGUS71 KCLE 301705

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service CLEVELAND OH
105 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

...Spring Flood Risk for the Lake Erie and Ohio River Basin
through the middle of April is Normal

This is the seventh flood potential outlook of the 2017 season.
Flood outlooks will be issued every two weeks into early spring
to summarize basin conditions and to assess the potential for
flooding. The outlooks are based on current and forecast
hydrometeorological conditions. This includes snow cover and water
equivalent, creek and river levels and the amount of ice on them,
along with the expected conditions during the next two weeks.
Flooding could occur with water levels having minor impacts even
with a below normal outlook.

Ground conditions and forecast outlooks support a normal risk of
flooding this spring. This means flooding can be expected in the
region with water levels having minor impacts.

The average temperatures for the month was mild around 1 to 2
degrees above normal. Precipitation amounts were near to slightly
above normal. The end of March is being marked by wet conditions
which will help keep the ground conditions near saturated.

The vegetation during the last few weeks greened-up across
portions of Ohio. Leafing started about two to three weeks
earlier than normal. In northwest Pennsylvania and northeast Ohio
plants are just beginning to leaf. Soil temperatures have warmed
to around 40 degrees in the snowbelt and upper 40s elsewhere.
Moist to wet soils exist across the the region due to frequent
rainfall. Accumulated rainfall totals for the last 30 days were
near to slightly above normal.

Streamflows for the last 28 days across the region were below
normal for the western Lake Erie basins like the Maumee, Portage,
Sandusky, and Huron. Elsewhere, streamflows were near normal. The
length of time between rainfall events during the month was
sufficient for reservoirs to release flows without resulting in
flooding. All reservoirs were near normal winter pools with 90%
flood storage or greater available.

Storm occurrence has been more frequent during the last week of
March, possibly signaling an active and wet pattern for April.
For the short term forecast, the ongoing storm system could
produce some isolated areas of minor flooding. The next storm
system is not projected to produce significant rainfall. The
pattern for the next two to four weeks also favors an active
pattern. However, this is typical for this time of year when
streamflows run at their highest. The large scale atmosphere
patterns for the rest of spring and into the summer give no clear
indication of wetter or drier conditions.

Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific locations along rivers across the region can be found on
the internet at www.weather.gov/cle or https://watermonitor.gov
Since conditions can change, please refer to the latest flood
watches, warnings, and statements for additional information.



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