Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Detroit/Pontiac, MI

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FXUS63 KDTX 060358
AFDDTX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1158 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...

EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL PROMOTE CALM WIND FROM PTK SOUTHWARD AND ONLY ALLOW A FEW
STREAMERS OF CIRRUS COVERAGE TONIGHT OVER ALL AREAS. THE LACK OF
WIND AND CLEARING SKY CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MVFR HAZE/FOG LATE IN THE
NIGHT TOWARD MID MORNING. A LATE AND LIGHT INCREASE IN GRADIENT WIND
IN THE MBS AREA DOWN TOWARD FNT WILL MAKE MVFR MORE DIFFICULT TO
MAINTAIN. THE WIND WILL THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST
OVER ALL AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MIX
OF SHALLOW CUMULUS AND INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS INTO MONDAY EVENING
BUT NO PRECIPITATION BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

FOR DTW... INCOMING MODEL SOUNDINGS APPEAR MORE FAVORABLE FOR
FOG/HAZE COMPARED TO THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. THIS COMBINED WITH RECENT
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS SUPPORTS A PREVAILING MVFR RESTRICTION FROM
LATER IN THE NIGHT TOWARD MID MORNING.

//DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* NONE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED 309 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT

LOW AND MID LEVEL RIDGING FULLY ENCOMPASSING SE MICHIGAN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE CORRESPONDING DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE AND
ELEVATED MEAN THICKNESS FIELD MAINTAINING A STABLE/CLOUD FREE SKY
AND SUPPORTING AN UPTICK IN SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  DESPITE THE LACK
OF CLOUD...STEADY STREAM OF SMOKE EMANATING FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS
NORTHWEST CANADA SUSTAINING AN EXTREMELY HAZY MID LEVEL CONDITION...
MAGNIFIED BY THE LACK OF STEERING FLOW WITHIN THE UPPER RIDGE DOME.
LITTLE VARIATION IN CONDITIONS HEADING INTO TONIGHT...RIDGE AXIS
TENDING TO EASE EASTWARD WITH TIME.  THIS WILL SUSTAIN A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY GRADIENT INTO THE EARLY MORNING PERIOD...WITH A NUDGE
UPWARD IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE QUALITY.  THIS WILL EFFECTIVELY CONTAIN
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AREAWIDE.

LONG TERM...

NATIONAL WV IMAGERY REVEALS WELL-DEFINED TROUGH ANCHORED BY A CLOSED
CIRCULATION LIFTING FROM NORTHERN MANITOBA TO HUDSON BAY THIS
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERN EXTENT IS DEFINED BY CONSOLIDATING SHORTWAVE
ENERGY PIVOTING ACROSS MONTANA. INCREASING SWLY FLOW BENEATH REMNANT
DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY OF NEARLY CLOUDLESS
SKIES AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO AT LEAST THE MID 80S AS H85
TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TEENS. SOME CONCERN THAT, SIMILAR TO TODAY,
UNEXPECTEDLY HIGH ALBEDO DUE TO SMOKE WILL INHIBIT WARMING POTENTIAL
A BIT, BUT EVOLVING DEEP LAYER SW CYCLONIC FLOW SHOULD HELP SCOUR
OUT SUSPENDED AEROSOLS THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH A DECENT COVERAGE OF
SMOKE MAY LINGER YET DURING THE MORNING BEFORE RIDGE SHIFTS FURTHER
EAST. NO CHANGES TO MID/UPPER 80S FOR HIGHS AS GUIDANCE WILL
TYPICALLY UNDERPERFORM UNDER FULL SUN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL REMAIN
WARM AS SWLY GRADIENT PERSISTS AND MOISTURE ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT INCREASES. LOWS OF 70 STILL LOOK REASONABLE.

MODEL CROSS-SECTIONS INDICATE UPSTREAM FRONT WILL ENTER LOWER
MICHIGAN WITH HEALTHY DEEP LAYER DYNAMICS COURTESY OF THE JET STREAK
OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER, AS DYNAMIC FORCING LIFTS
NORTHEAST, FORCING WILL BE GRADUALLY STRIPPED AWAY LEAVING SE
MICHIGAN WITH A WEAKENING FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT DIMINISHING TREND IN
OF OVERALL PRECIP COVERAGE. FURTHER, LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN TIMING
WILL BE UNSUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL, THOUGH MODEST MID-LEVEL
INSTABILITY IS STILL FORECAST TO BE SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN A
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS. SLIGHTLY BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST WHERE MARGINAL MLCAPE < 1000 J/KG WILL EXIST
DURING LATER AFTERNOON FROPA. PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE WAVE LIMITS
ANY HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING CONCERN DESPITE VERY HIGH PWATS APPROACHING
2 INCHES. INHERITED 60-70 POPS STILL APPROPRIATE.

12Z CONSENSUS SUPPORTS A DRY DAY WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT...HOWEVER THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL JUST SOUTH OF THE
BORDER SO IT BEARS WATCHING. POPS RETURN WED NIGHT/THU FOR THE SOUTH
PORTION OF THE REGION AS MODELS SUGGEST A WAVE RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT. TEMPS ON WED/THU START OUT BELOW NORMAL WITH A WARMING TREND
THEREAFTER AS MODELS HINT AT UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES.

MARINE...

LIGHT WIND WILL TRANSITION TO A MODERATE SOUTHEAST BREEZE MONDAY
INTO EARLY TUESDAY WITH WARM STABLE FLOW LIMITING WIND GUSTS. WINDS
WILL VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND BECOME MODERATE TO FRESH...STRONGEST
OVER NORTHERN LAKE HURON...IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING COLD FRONT ON
TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO AREA
WATERS. WINDS AND WAVES WILL DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...NONE.
LAKE HURON...NONE.
LAKE ST CLAIR...NONE.
MICHIGAN WATERS OF LAKE ERIE...NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....BT
SHORT TERM...MR
LONG TERM....JVC/DT
MARINE.......JVC


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