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000
FXUS63 KDTX 270355
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1155 PM EDT MON SEP 26 2016


.AVIATION...

The upper short wave feature which generated some showers across the
Saginaw Valley and thumb this evening will depart to the east early
this morning, leaving a period of large scale subsidence in its wake
this morning. Recent observations suggest just some mid level clouds
will impact the region this morning, mainly north of metro Detroit.
The onset of daytime heating late in the morning will support the
expansion of a VFR based cu field and an increase in southwest winds.

For DTW... Winds will increase in the 15 to 17Z time frame on
Tuesday as daytime heating increases the boundary layer depth. The
gradient on Tuesday will support a more southwesterly direction.

//DTW Threshold Probabilities...

* Low in ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight and Tuesday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 716 PM EDT Mon SEP 26 2016

UPDATE...

The regional water vapor image shows a mid level trough axis now
extending from Ne Lower Mi into srn Lake MI. There appears to be
an embedded short wave wave off the coast of Muskegon and Grand
Haven, which along with the lake contribution has led to an
enhancement in the shower activity over portions of wrn Lower Mi.
This feature will rotate across the Saginaw Valley and thumb this
evening. While the lake enhancement will dwindle this far east,
there appears to be enough support to suggest a few light
showers/sprinkles out of the high based cu field may traverse the
northern sections of the area this evening. An update will be
issued to simply carry a slight chance in this region during the
evening.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 318 PM EDT Mon SEP 26 2016

DISCUSSION...

Forecast issues will center around the slow migration of a large
upper low pressure system as it shifts southward from its current
position over the northern Great Lakes this afternoon to the Ohio
Valley by late Wednesday. While model differences remain, suite has
more or less settled into solution best captured by the ECMWF over
the past 2 or 3 days. Namely, having the closed low pivot sharply
south/southeast through the area and then cut off to the south and
southeast of the area through the middle of the week.

Lead shortwave pivoting around the base of this upper low will exit
the forecast area late this afternoon, with mid level dry slot more
or less shutting down shower chances for the rest of the day and
actually all/most of the night for a large portion of the forecast
area.

Will have to back off on precipitation chances as wraparound
moisture associated with this low pressure center will be delayed
until at least Tuesday afternoon and most likely Tuesday night for
the southeastern portion of the forecast area. This is largely due
to the fact that the center of this system wobbles back to the
southwest and then drops south along the length of Lake Michigan
Tuesday and Tuesday night before shifting into far lower Michigan
Wednesday.

Will maintain relatively high precipitation chances overnight
Tuesday night through Wednesday given this scenario and then taper
back somewhat overnight Wednesday night as the low settles south of
the area. Greater uncertainty is already creeping back into the rain
forecast by this time frame as it is certainly possible that a lobe
of vorticity may pivot back southwest into area around this low and
maintain a good chance of showers for at least parts of southeast
lower Michigan into Wednesday night.

In addition to better shower chances into Wednesday, instability
also increases as beginning of warm conveyor pivots back west into
the general area around the upper low as it settles just south of
the area. This will promote embedded thunderstorm activity, first
over the relatively warm Great Lake waters, but most likely across
the whole area during peak instability Wednesday afternoon. NAM12
produces pocket of SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg by that time with HiRes
NMM/ARW suggesting a very similar progression with instability on
the increase from the east/southeast by 12z Wednesday.

As for temperatures, expect a very fall-like period as temperatures
hover near late September averages. Generally, this will mean highs
ranging from the lower 60s north to mid/upper 60s south with low
temperatures large in the 40s with 50 degree readings confined to
the inner Metro Detroit urban heat island and also areas adjacent
the relatively mild waters of the Great Lakes.

Cooler temps and unsettled weather will continue to dominate the
extended  forecast period.  An upper level closed low will be over
the central Great Lakes region through the weekend.  Changes will
still be in play concerning the track of the low as models have it
sliding to the south Thursday then back northward over the area this
weekend. This will lead to a continual chance for unsettled weather
with highs in the upper 60s. The upper level low finally starts to
shift away from the area by the beginning of next week.

MARINE...

Small craft advisories remain in effect through Tuesday on account
of persistent fresh offshore flow from the southwest. Wave action
will be somewhat suppressed in the nearshore zones but maximum wave
heights will likely exceed 10 feet at times over portions of central
Lake Huron. Winds and waves will begin to diminish late Tuesday. Low
pressure will then stall south of the Great Lakes for the remainder
of the week, setting up several days of moderate to occasionally
fresh wind from the northeast and east.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...NONE.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LHZ421-422-441>443.

Lake St Clair...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Tuesday FOR LEZ444.

&&

$$

AVIATION.....SC
UPDATE.......SC
DISCUSSION...DG/SS
MARINE.......JVC


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