Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 212101 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 401 PM EST Sun Jan 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered over the southeast states today into Monday. A cold front crosses the region Tuesday morning and moves well off the coast by Tuesday night. High pressure becomes centered over the south central states Wednesday and builds east into the local area by Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Latest analysis indicates a weak upper level trough along the SE coast with a lot of clouds over the Gulf Stream off the Carolina coast. A much stronger storm system is moving NE through the Plains states bringing a powerful winter storm to much of the central CONUS. Over the local area, weak sfc high pressure remains in control with dry conditions and sunny skies over the east and partly/mostly cloudy skies moving into central/south central VA. Quite warm with inland temperatures into the mid 60s while areas near the coast are mainly 55-60F. For tonight, skies will avg partly- mostly cloudy N to partly cloudy- mostly clear S. Not as cold, with a light southerly flow and more clouds/higher dew pts than past several nights. Expect lows mainly from 35-40 F over the interior southern zones to 40-45F elsewhere. Sfc high pressure remains off the SE/mid-Atlc coast through Mon while low pressure tracks from the central plains to the wrn Great Lakes. SSW flow will keep mild wx over the region w/ partly cloudy conditions. Highs upper 50s/lower 60s near the bay/ocean and on the ern shore to the mid 60s for most other locations. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Rain chances increase quickly after midnight Mon night through Tue morning as main sfc low pressure tracks through the Great lakes region...pushing its associated cold front across the local area by Tue aftn. Models remain in good general agreement wrt timing that front through the FA. Still see potential for at least isolated tstms in a high shear/low CAPE environment (and SHERB parameters to >1 from about 09-18Z/Tue across the CWA. Keeping likely to categorical PoPs for the area during 06Z- 17Z/23 (Tue) then pcpn moving out of the entire area by 00Z/24 (Wed). Highs Tue from the mid 60s N and on the ern shore to the u60s-l70s SE. Dry cooler Tue night/Wed with lows mainly in the 30s and highs Wed upper 40s N to lower 50s S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Medium range period (late week into next weekend) characterized by building upper level ridge building over the eastern half of the CONUS. Starting off seasonably cool behind the cool front on Thursday...then steadily warming as surface high pressure builds over the area on Friday, sliding offshore late Friday and Saturday. Highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s Thu/Fri warm back into the 50s Saturday...and well into the 50s to 60s by Sunday. Remaining dry through the Saturday night. Rain chances increase by late next weekend, as an amplifying upper trough over the plains is forecast to lift across the Plains from the desert southwest Fri/Sat. Gulf is wide open during this time frame, and expect llvl moisture to surge north into the area ahead of this feature, with a period of showers late next weekend. Worth noting that there is good to excellent agreement among the GEFS/EPS early next week, as both show temperatures dropping back quickly behind the associated cold front into early next week. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions will continue through the 18Z TAF period with weak sfc high pressure over the area. Clouds are increasing and will see cigs of 5-10k ft affecting much of the area through tonight. Light S winds inland with light ENE winds at the coast this aftn, mainly SSW at 5 kt or less tonight. Sfc high pressure settles off the SE coast on Mon w/ dry conditions continuing. The next chance for widespread precipitation and flight restrictions comes mainly after midnight Tue through Tue aftn with a passing cold front. Gusty SSW winds early Tue shift to the WNW late in the day. Isolated tstms possible with the front mainly Tue morning. Dry and VFR conditions then prevail Tue-Thu. && .MARINE... Ridge of surface high pressure will linger over the region through tonight, and remain in control of the weather thru Monday. Latest Obs/Buoy reports winds have veered around to the E-SE this aftn 10 kt or less w/ generally benign boating conditions. Surface high will slide offshore Monday into Monday night, as low pressure moves across the Mid-Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes. By Monday night, winds will begin to increase again out of the south as the Great Lakes low pushes its associated cold front toward the region. Wind will increase to 15 to 25 kt from the S-SW prior to daybreak Tues, continuing thru midday, with seas on the coastal waters building to 4-6 FT; waves 3-4 ft on the Bay. SCAs have been hoisted across all waters for Monday night through Tuesday/Tuesday night. Some gale force gusts possible along and just ahead of the frontal passage. However, expect that these gusts will likely be convective in nature. As such, will go ahead with SCA and mention potential pre-frontal in the MWW. Once the front clears the area Tuesday afternoon, winds veer around to the west 10-15 kt Tues night/Wed and then northwest on Thursday. Waves/seas subside to 1-3 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ633- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory from midnight Monday night to midnight EST Tuesday night for ANZ650-652-654. && $$ SYNOPSIS...LKB NEAR TERM...LKB SHORT TERM...ALB/LKB LONG TERM...MAM AVIATION...ALB/LKB MARINE...MAM is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.