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Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
632 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-231300-
CHOCTAW-WASHINGTON-CLARKE-WILCOX-MONROE-CONECUH-BUTLER-CRENSHAW-
ESCAMBIA-COVINGTON-UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-
LOWER BALDWIN-INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-WAYNE-PERRY-
GREENE-STONE-GEORGE-
632 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...NORTHWEST FLORIDA AND SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...WESTWARD TO EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TODAY...RESULTS
IN A MODERATE TO STRONG EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW. THE HIGH MOVES EASTWARD
ON SUNDAY AS A STRENGTHENING AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PIVOTS NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE MID SOUTH ON SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...WINDS BECOME SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AND REMAIN STRONG OVER THE BEACHES. THE INCREASE IN WINDS
IN COMBINATION WITH SPRING TIDAL CYCLES AND AN INCREASE IN HIGHER
PERIOD SWELL RESULTS IN A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY
DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE BEACHES.

AS A WARM FRONT ADVANCES ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LATE TONIGHT...APPROACHING
THE COAST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY...CHANCES OF WET WEATHER TREND HIGHER.
SOME OF THE RAINS COULD BE LOCALLY HEAVY LATE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS MAY IMPACT THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DUE TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT...THE BETTER RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL SUNDAY. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATES
ON THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SYSTEM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS TO POTENTIALLY DEADLY RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
BEACHES CONTINUES ON SUNDAY.

THE WARM FRONT SURGES NORTHWARD SUNDAY MORNING WITH AN ORGANIZING
LINE OF STORMS TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE
ATMOSPHERE LOOKS TO BECOME MORE UNSTABLE AND ALONG WITH A STRONG AND
CHANGING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE. RAPID STORM MOTIONS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A QUICK ONSET OF
SEVERE WEATHER. THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL OF LONG
TRACK...ISOLATED TORNADOES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
PASSAGE OF THE STRONGEST STORMS.

THE SQUALL LINE MAKES STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS TO EAST OF INTERSTATE
65 SUNDAY AFTERNOON. RAINS DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT LOWERS FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL LINE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SKYWARN SEVERE STORM SPOTTER NETWORKS MAY BE REQUESTED
ON SUNDAY.

$$



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