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Hazardous Weather Outlook

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
517 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-221045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
517 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017


...Severe Thunderstorms Expected to Sweep Through Tonight...

This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...All of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 7pm...ending by 3am in Carroll and Madison Counties.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Significant.
AREA...All of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 7pm...end by 3am in Carroll and Madison Counties.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma...with a lesser threat in northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...After 7pm.

RIVER FLOOD.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will increase and spread across eastern Oklahoma and
northwest Arkansas this evening.  While a few storms could develop
ahead of the cold front, especially in the terrain of southeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas, the main round of severe is expected
with storms developing a near a cold front moving in from the northwest.
Initial individual storm cell development to the west will transition to
a line of storms this evening that will sweep through the entire area.
While some potential for hail exits, especially earlier in the evening,
the main risk will be damaging wind and the potential for areas of rotation
to form within the line.  Because of this rotation potential, there is
some tornado threat anywhere along the line.  Scattered areas of strong
winds are also expected within the line.  Gusts of 60 to 70 mph are
expected in the most intense storms.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.
SUNDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
MONDAY...No Hazards.
TUESDAY...High Wind Potential.
WEDNESDAY...No Hazards.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorms will be ending from west to east later tonight
and early on Sunday morning.  Another front late next week is
expected to bring more thunderstorm chances on Thursday and Friday.
Rainfall tonight is expected to drive some creeks and rivers up
in northeast Oklahoma over the next couple of days.  A Flood
Warning is currently up for the Neosho River at Commerce, OK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
Emergency managers will need to activate their spotter networks tonight.
The evolution of circulations in squall lines can be very quick with
few visual clues for spotters and limited warning opportunities.  Spotters
should exercise caution and not attempt to intercept areas of rotation
where visibility is low.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$




Short Term Forecast

Short Term Forecast
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
444 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-212345-
Benton-Carroll-Washington AR-Madison-Crawford-Franklin-Sebastian-
Pushmataha-Choctaw-Osage-Washington OK-Nowata-Craig-Ottawa-Pawnee-
Tulsa-Rogers-Mayes-Delaware-Creek-Okfuskee-Okmulgee-Wagoner-
Cherokee-Adair-Muskogee-McIntosh-Sequoyah-Pittsburg-Haskell-
Latimer-Le Flore-
Including the cities of Rogers, Bentonville, Berryville,
Eureka Springs, Fayetteville, Springdale, Huntsville, Van Buren,
Ozark, Charleston, Fort Smith, Antlers, Clayton, Hugo, Pawhuska,
Bartlesville, Nowata, Vinita, Miami, Pawnee, Tulsa, Claremore,
Pryor, Grove, Jay, Sapulpa, Okemah, Okmulgee, Wagoner, Tahlequah,
Stilwell, Muskogee, Checotah, Sallisaw, McAlester, Stigler,
Wilburton, and Poteau
444 PM CDT Sat Oct 21 2017

.NOW...
At 4:44 PM...Doppler radars detected scattered rain showers
across portions of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This
activity was moving rapidly northeast, well in advance of a cold
front moving into the region.

Through 6:45 PM...Widely scattered rain showers will remain
possible across the area in advance of the approaching cold
front. These fast moving showers will result in average hourly
rainfall of up to one tenth of an inch. Isolated locally higher
amounts will be possible with the stronger showers that occur.

$$




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NOAA National Weather Service
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