Short Term Forecast

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
300 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

MIZ042-222100-
ARENAC COUNTY...STANDISH-
300 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.NOW...
AT  4 PM...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE 66.
SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 MPH.
AT  6 PM...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE 66.
LIGHT WINDS.
AT  8 PM...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE 62.
EAST WINDS 7 MPH.
AT 10 PM...SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURE 60.
NORTHEAST WINDS 7 MPH.

$$

Hazardous Weather Outlook

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
115 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

LHZ345>349-LMZ323-341-342-344>346-LSZ321-322-MIZ008-015>036-041-042-
232015-
STRAITS OF MACKINAC-ST IGNACE TO FALSE DETOUR CHANNEL-
MACKINAC BRDG TO PRESQUE ISLE LT-PRESQUE ISLE LT TO STURGEON PT-
STURGEON PT TO ALABASTER-GRAND TRAVERSE BAY-
SEUL CHOIX PT TO MACKINAC BRDG-NORWOOD TO MACKINAC BRDG-
SLEEPING BEAR PT TO GRAND TRAVERSE LT-PT BETSIE TO SLEEPING BEAR PT-
MANISTEE TO PT BETSIE-WHITEFISH BAY-ST. MARYS RIVER-CHIPPEWA-
MACKINAC-EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-
OTSEGO-MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-
OSCODA-ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-
GLADWIN-ARENAC-
115 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN...
EASTERN UPPER MICHIGAN...AND ADJACENT NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE
MICHIGAN...LAKE HURON AND LAKE SUPERIOR.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE TO HAMPER COASTAL AREAS OF
NORTHERN MICHIGAN ALONG LAKE MICHIGAN AND LAKE HURON SHORELINES.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
LOWER MICHIGAN...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF M-32. SEVERE STORMS
ARE NOT EXPECTED.

PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN LOWER
MICHIGAN MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON ROADWAYS.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
LAKES HURON AND MICHIGAN.

WITH RAIN FALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1 AND 1 HALF INCHES OF RAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...LOCAL STREAMS AND RIVERS MAY
REACH OR EXCEED FLOOD STAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION VISIT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/APX.

$$

Special Weather Statement

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1243 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

MIZ016>036-041-042-230045-
EMMET-CHEBOYGAN-PRESQUE ISLE-CHARLEVOIX-LEELANAU-ANTRIM-OTSEGO-
MONTMORENCY-ALPENA-BENZIE-GRAND TRAVERSE-KALKASKA-CRAWFORD-OSCODA-
ALCONA-MANISTEE-WEXFORD-MISSAUKEE-ROSCOMMON-OGEMAW-IOSCO-GLADWIN-
ARENAC-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PETOSKEY...CHEBOYGAN...ROGERS CITY...
CHARLEVOIX...NORTHPORT...MANCELONA...GAYLORD...ATLANTA...ALPENA...
FRANKFORT...TRAVERSE CITY...KALKASKA...GRAYLING...MIO...
HARRISVILLE...MANISTEE...CADILLAC...LAKE CITY...HOUGHTON LAKE...
WEST BRANCH...TAWAS CITY...GLADWIN...STANDISH
1243 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...

MODERATE RAIN IS DEVELOPING ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED ACROSS
NORTHERN MICHIGAN. THERE WILL BE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
POSSIBLY EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
RAIN AMOUNTS OF UP TO 1.50 INCHES OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING AND PONDING ON AREA ROADWAYS.

$$

Hydrologic Outlook

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
MIC011-165-230411-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI
1211 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

...THE FOLLOWING RIVERS ARE FORECAST TO RISE NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

  MANISTEE RIVER AT SHERMAN...RIFLE RIVER AT STERLING

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1 AND A HALF INCHES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THESE
BASINS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS MAY PUSH THE
THE ABOVE RIVERS TO NEAR...OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING...FLOOD STAGE BY
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

RIVER FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXPECTED RAINFALL AND MAY
CHANGE BASED ON OBSERVED AND UPDATED FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS.
PAY ATTENTION TO LATER FORECASTS FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES IN CREST
HEIGHT AND TIMING.


&&

                 FLD       OBSERVED             FORECAST
LOCATION         STG    STG   DAY  TIME    THU   FRI   SAT   SUN   MON

MANISTEE RIVER
  SHERMAN         15   12.70   WED 09 AM   13.5 15.0  14.6  13.9  13.4

RIFLE RIVER
  STERLING         6   3.16   WED 09 AM     3.9  7.3    6.2  4.1   3.5

$$

MSB